Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
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Stock Options on ANF and GPS - The Market's Expectation for Same-Store Sales
1. May 2, 2006
Sell ANF Put Spreads, Buy GPS Puts
• We recommend selling ANF May ’06 55/60 put spreads as a means of expressing Lehman
Ryan Renicker, CFA
softline analyst Jeff Black’s positive outlook for ANF ahead of the company’s SSS release.
1.212.526.9425
ryan.renicker@lehman.com
• The net premium received from this position is approximately $1.15 and the trade is profitable if
Devapriya Mallick
ANF trades above $58.85 as of the May 19 expiration date.
1.212.526.5429
dmallik@lehman.com
• A portion of the proceeds received from the short ANF put spread can then be used to fully fund
short-dated downside protection on GPS, on which Black has a bearish view versus consensus
heading into its SSS report.
• Specifically, we recommend purchasing GPS May ’06 puts struck at 17.50, at a cost of about
$0.30. This leg of the trade would be profitable if GPS trades below $17.20 as of the May 19
expiration date.
• If investors purchase these puts on GPS in conjunction with the short ANF put spread, they would
maintain a bullish stance on ANF heading into SSS, a bearish stance on GPS heading into SSS
and would receive about $0.85 for doing so ($1.15 ANF net credit - $0.30 GPS put purchase).
Lehman Brothers does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Customers of Lehman Brothers in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies covered in this report, at no cost to them,
where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at www.lehmanlive.com or can call 1-800-2LEHMAN to request a copy of this research.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 3.
2. Equity Derivatives Strategy | Sell ANF Put Spreads, Buy GPS Puts
Softline Same Store Sales Strategy
We scan the retail softline universe ahead of this Thursday’s of same-store sales (SSS) releases to
identify option trades we believe offer attractive risk/reward characteristics and complement Lehman
fundamental views.
Sell ANF Put Spreads for Bullish View
We recommend selling ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch Co., $61.27) May ’06 55/60 put spreads as a
means of expressing Lehman softline analyst Jeff Black’s positive outlook for ANF ahead of the
company’s SSS release1 (Lehman comp estimate of 9.2% vs. 8.0% consensus2). The net premium
received from this position is approximately $1.153 (short 60 strike put for $1.50 – long 55 strike put
$0.35) and the trade is profitable if ANF trades above $58.85 as of the May 19 expiration date.
Buy GPS Puts for Bearish View
A portion of the proceeds received from the short ANF put spread can then be used to fully fund short-
dated downside protection on GPS (The Gap, Inc., $18.02), on which Black has a bearish view
versus consensus heading into its SSS report (Lehman comp estimate of -6.4% vs. -4.8% consensus,
management has noted traffic down significantly in 1Q ’06). Specifically, we recommend purchasing
GPS May ’06 puts struck at 17.50, at a cost of about $0.30. This leg of the trade would be
profitable if GPS trades below $17.20 as of the May 19 expiration date.
If investors purchase these puts on GPS in conjunction with the short ANF put spread, they would
maintain a bullish stance on ANF heading into SSS, a bearish stance on GPS heading into SSS and
would receive about $0.85 for doing so ($1.15 ANF net credit - $0.30 GPS put purchase).
Figure 1: Expiration Payoff: Short ANF Put Spreads + Long GPS Put Strategy
Source: Lehman Brothers, Bloomberg.
1
Please see Retail Softlines, April Sales Preview (Jeff Black), May 1, 2006 for further fundamental details.
2
Source: Thomson Financial consensus estimate (5/2/06).
3
All prices quoted in this note are as of today’s close. Source: Bloomberg.
May 2, 2006 2
3. Equity Derivatives Strategy | Sell ANF Put Spreads, Buy GPS Puts
The respective research analysts responsible for the fundamental ratings hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research email accurately reflect our
personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this email and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly
related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this email.
I, Ryan Renicker, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research email accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject securities or
issuers referred to in this email and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed
in this email.
To the extent that any of the conclusions are based on a quantitative model, Lehman Brothers hereby certifies (1) that the views expressed in this research email
accurately reflect the firm's quantitative research model (2) no part of the firm's compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Important Disclosures
Lehman Brothers does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a
conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this email communication.
Customers of Lehman Brothers in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies covered in this report, at no cost to
them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at www.lehmanlive.com or can call 1-800-2-LEHMAN to request a copy of
this research.
Investors should consider this communication as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based upon various factors including the Firm’s total revenues, a portion of which is
generated by investment banking activities.
Stock price and ratings history charts along with other important disclosures are available on our disclosure website at www.lehman.com/disclosures
And may also be obtained by sending a written request to: LEHMAN BROTHERS CONTROL ROOM , 745 SEVENTH AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR NEW YORK, NY
10019
Mentioned Stocks
Abercrombie & Fitch Co (ANF - USD60.92) 1-Overweight / Neutral J
Risks Which May Impede the Achievement of the Price Target: We believe the long-term risks for Abercrombie and Fitch are (1) that comparable store sales remain
sluggish for a protracted period of time, (2) the challenges associated with managing multiple store formats, (3) that Hollister, the Company's main growth vehicle
experiences a slowdown, (4) that the new concept, Ruehl, does not gain traction and does not succeed, (5) the fashion risk associated with being a highly seasonal,
highly cyclical, and fashion oriented business, and (6) the removal of import quotas could have a significant impact on worldwide sourcing patterns during 2005.
Our earnings forecast and investment thesis for Abercrombie and Fitch are subject to such factors as cost of goods, consumer spending and debt levels, currency
fluctuations, interest rate fluctuations, store expansion plans, legal proceedings, and variability in comparable store sales.
Gap Inc (GPS - USD18.15) 2-Equal weight / Neutral J/K/M
Risks Which May Impede the Achievement of the Price Target: We believe the long-term risks for The Gap are (1) the challenges associated with managing
increasingly vast and complex operations, (2) the ability to acquire and successfully integrate assets abroad, (3) the proficiency with which the company adapts its
store formats to the various economic and cultural environments in international markets, (4) the fashion risk associated with being a highly seasonal, highly cyclical,
and fashion oriented business, (5) the removal of import quotas could have a significant impact on worldwide sourcing patterns during the fourth quarter of Fiscal
2004 as well as in 2005, and (6) changes in currency and exchange rates in foreign currency and buying operations. Our earnings forecast and investment thesis
for GPS are subject to such factors as cost of goods, consumer spending and debt levels, interest rate fluctuations, store expansion plans, legal proceedings, and
variability in comparable store sales.
Disclosure Legend:
J: Lehman Brothers Inc. or an affiliate trade(s) regularly in the shares of the subject company.
K: Lehman Brothers Inc. has received non-investment banking related compensation from the subject company within the last 12 months.
M: The subject company is or during the last 12 months has been a non-investment banking client (securities related services) of Lehman Brothers Inc.
Options are not suitable for all investors and the risks of option trading should be weighed against the potential rewards.
Supporting documents that form the basis of the recommendations are available on request. Please note that the trade ideas within
this report in no way relate to the fundamental ratings applied to European stocks by Lehman Brothers' Equity Research.
Guide to Lehman Brothers Equity Research Rating System
May 2, 2006 3
5. Equity Derivatives Strategy | Sell ANF Put Spreads, Buy GPS Puts
Lehman Brothers policy for managing conflicts of interest in connection with investment research is available at www.lehman.com/researchconflictspolicy. Ratings,
earnings per share forecasts and price targets contained in the Firm's equity research reports covering U.S. companies are available at
www.lehman.com/disclosures.
Complete disclosure information on companies covered by Lehman Brothers Equity Research is available at www.lehman.com/disclosures.
May 2, 2006 5