1. Voting Intention
Tracking Poll
Nov 2010

2. Methodology and Weighting
RED C interviewed a random sample of 1000 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the
15th
& 17th
Nov 2010.
A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process of
households to be included – this also ensures that ex-directory households are covered.
Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other half
conducted using an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of the
population reaching landline only households, mobile only households and those with both
a landline and a mobile.
Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all
adults. A further past vote weighting is included that takes the current recall for how
people voted at the last election, compares this to the actual results, and weights the data
to halfway between the two.
Finally vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10
point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 4 to 10 are included
as being those who will actually go and vote.

3. SUNDAY BUSINESS POST – 21st
November 2010 - Opinion Poll
Are voters now ashamed to say they may vote Fianna Fail?
Today’s RED C/ Sunday Business Post poll confirms much about the political landscape in Ireland. Fine Gael continues to strengthen
their hand as the lead party in Ireland, securing 33% of the vote. Labour also re-affirms their strong second place, securing
27% of first preference for the second month in a row. Sinn Fein see the biggest increases on the back of media coverage
surrounding their successful high court challenge that forced the by-election in Donegal South West, and also the
announcement that Gerry Adams is to stand for election in the Republic of Ireland. Support for the Greens remains depressed,
with the bounce last month on the back of calls for consensus on the budget, dissipating quickly one month on.
Perhaps however, the most important insight from the poll is the continued decline in the share of vote secured by Fianna Fail. A
further decline of 1% this month leaves the party with only 17% of the electorate claiming they would give them a first preference
vote.
This result confirms that the fall seen last month, when support fell below 20% for the first time since RED C began polling six years
ago, was very real and not an anomaly. It leaves the party looking into a possible General Election with potentially less than
half the share of first preference vote they achieved in 2007.
As the banking and financial crisis has worsened, the party has become more and more unpopular. What we need to be careful
about is whether the party has now become so unpopular that Irish voters are even “ashamed” to tell us they would vote Fianna
Fail, even if they intend to. Analysis of past polling conducted in other countries has shown that parties certainly can get so
unpopular that people are ashamed to tell interviewers that they will vote for that party, and instead refuse to give a preference
or claim that they are undecided.
This phenomenon, called The Spiral of Silence, was first identified in Germany by a Professor Noelle-Neumann in 1974. It was also
famously apparent in the 1992 UK elections, when people were ashamed to tell the pollsters that they were going to vote
Conservative, but ended up electing John Major, despite polls suggesting Neil Kinnock and the Labour Party was likely to win.
It is then conceivable that in Ireland today some form of a Spiral of Silence may exist among those who may still want to vote Fianna
Fail, but are perhaps too shy to tell us. To try and combat this phenomena, rather than just assuming that everyone who is
undecided will vote the same way as those that give us a first preference vote; we look at how they voted at the last election.

4. For our Spiral of Silence analysis we then assume that that 50% of these undecided voters will vote how they voted last time
and that the other half will vote along the lines of those who did give us a preference. The impact of this analysis in the latest
poll is limited to just two of the main parties. Not surprisingly Fianna Fail gain share as result, but only marginally, with their first
preference share increasing by 2%, leaving them possibly securing 19% of the vote. Labour are the only party to lose share,
dropping 1% and leaving them securing 26% of the vote.
In fact, even if we were to take this analysis to its extreme and assume ALL of those who don’t know or refused to tell us how
they will vote, ended up giving their first preference to the party they supported at the last election; Fianna Fail would still only
secure 21% of the vote. This still leaves them with only half the share they achieved at the last election, so shy or undecided
voters certainly isn’t the answer to their troubles.
Analysis of second preference votes also doesn’t provide any solace for the party. Fianna Fail is the second preference of just
9% of all voters, while Fine Gael and Labour voters support each other strongly and in similar measure on second preference.
(As an aside the Greens also may be concerned that they are the second preference of just 7% of the electorate, a traditional
strong part of their electorate success being transfers.)
It would appear then that the problems for the party are very real, and there is little to take heart from in a deeper analysis of the
topline figures. Even the local candidate factor, which has often been heralded as likely to improve support when it mattered at
on the ground at actual elections, may not have as much impact as seen previously.
This is emphasized in the findings from a constituency poll conducted by RED C for Paddy Power in the Donegal South West
by-election earlier this week. Donegal South West had previously been one of the strongest Fianna Fail constituencies in the
country. However, despite including the impact of local candidates on the ground, this poll sees support for Fianna Fail
candidates plummet.
Overall support for the party, in the event of a general election, is down by a staggering 32%, from a high of 51% at the last
general election to just 19% in the poll. And while this doesn’t take into account a lack of campaigning by non by-election
candidates, the results even suggests that the Tánaiste Mary Coughlan’s seat is potentially at risk, once one of the safest in the
country.
The possibility of a general election must now be very worrying for a large number of Fianna Fail TD’s.

5. 33%
17%
27%
11%
3%
8%
Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fail Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/
Other
If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party
or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
N.B. Please note rounding leaves total support only adding up to 99%, as the other1% spread evenly across 3 parties

6. 24%
30%
22%
10%
5%
9%
24%
33%
27%
8%
2%
6%
24%
31%
23%
10%
3%
9%
18%
32%
27%
9%
4%
10%
17%
33%
27%
11%
3%
8%
10%
6%
42%
27%
7%
5%
Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/
Other
General election 2007
May 2010
June 2010
Sept 2010
Oct 2010
Nov 2010
If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party
or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
N.B. Please note rounding leaves total support only adding up to 99%, as the other1% spread evenly across 3 parties

7. 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Dec
’05
If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party
or independent candidate would give your first preference vote?
(Base: All adults 18+)
Fianna Fáil
Fine Gael
Labour
Sinn Féin
Green Party
PDs
33%
27%
17%
Independent
Mar
’06
Jun
’06
Oct
’06
Jan
’07
Apr
’07
May
’07
GE
2007
Oct
’07
Jan
’08
Apr
’08
Jun
’08
11%
Oct
’08
Jan
’09
3%
Apr
’09
GE
2002
Sep
’09
Nov
’09
2006 2007 2008 2009
Mar
’10
2010
Sept
’10
8%
N.B. Please note rounding leaves total support only adding up to 99%, as the other1% spread evenly across 3 parties

8. 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or
independent candidate would give your first preference vote?
(Base: All adults 18+)
Fianna Fáil
Fine Gael
Labour
Sinn Féin
Green Party
PDs
33%
27%
17%
Independent
GE
2007
Sep
’07
Oct
’07
Nov
’07
Jan
’08
Feb
’08
Mar
’08
Apr
’08
May
’08
Jun
’08
Sep
’08
11%
Oct
’08
Nov
’08
Jan
’09
3%
Feb
’09
Mar
’09
Apr
’09
May
’09
May
’09
Sep
’09
Sep
’09
Nov
’09
Oct
’09
Jan
’10
2008 2009
Feb
’10
Mar
’10
2010
Apr
’10
8%
May
’10
Jun
’10
Sep
’10
Oct
’10
Oct
’10
N.B. Please note rounding leaves total support only adding up to 99%, as the other1% spread evenly across 3 parties

9. CURRENT FIRST PREFERENCE SUPPORT
Core figures
21st
Nov 2010
Excluding
undecided
2007 Election
Results
% % %
Fine Gael 28 33 27
Labour 23 27 10
Fianna Fáil 15 17 42
Sinn Féin 10 11 7
Green Party 2 3 5
Independents/Ot
hers
7 8 6
Undecided 15
If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party
or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
N.B. Please note rounding leaves total support only adding up to 99%, as the other1% spread evenly across 3 parties

10. 33%
27%
17%
11%
3%
8%
33%
26%
19%
11%
3%
8%
Normal D/K allocation Past Vote weighted D/K Allocation
Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fail Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/
Other
Spiral of Silence Allocation of Undecided Voters.
If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference
vote?
(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
The Spiral of Silence
Assumes that one party is so poorly thought of
that respondents are “ashamed” to admit that
they will vote for them.
To take account of this we look at how those
who are currently undecided or refuse to give a
preference voted at the last general election.
We then re-allocate 50% of these to the party
they voted last time, and 50% to how the rest
claim they will vote this time.
N.B. Please note rounding leaves total support only adding up to 99%, as the other1% spread evenly across 3 parties

11. 9 12 10 6 7
25 18
12
44
20
24
11
46
8
25
7
12
4
10
2
7
15
4 7
3
14
15
9 14
17
14 17 15 11
26
Second Preference among First preference voters
FG
%
FF
%
Labour
% %
Fianna Fáil
Fine Gael
Labour
Sinn Féin
Green
Independents
Undecided
First Preference
Second
Preference
TOTAL
%