- Burning carbon leads to increased atmospheric CO2 in a linear relationship, allowing future CO2 levels to be predicted from carbon emissions data. - Higher CO2 levels cause radiative forcing that can be calculated using a simple formula, and each additional watt of forcing raises temperatures by 0.66°C due to thermal inertia in oceans. - Positive climate feedbacks may amplify initial warming, potentially doubling or tripling temperatures for a given CO2 level depending on the feedback strength.

1. Energy => Carbon
Climate => Action
ENGR40
Foothill College

2. Overview
• Historic carbon emissions => ppm CO2
• CO2 and warming => forcing models
• Economy (GDP) => energy intensity
(BTU/$) => carbon intensity => CO2
• 2030 ppm CO2 => current trajectory
• Getting to $100T GDP staying under 450
ppm CO2 => how much clean energy?

3. GHG Emissions by Source

4. Carbon Burned Becomes CO2
• If you burn carbon, it must go somewhere
• Plot ATM [CO2] as a function of [carbon]
• It is a perfect straight line (r2 x 100 = 99%)
– Slope = 2.55 e10-4 *M tons C / ppm CO2
– Intercept = 297 ppm CO2
– Correlation = .994
• Perfect way to model future carbon emissions
• And the effect of carbon mitigation strategies

5. Carbon Burned and CO2
• Plot atmospheric CO2 as a function of
cumulative carbon burned (mega tons)
• Linear regression has an almost perfect
correlation coefficient (r2*100) of 99%
• Allows a confident prediction of future CO2
based on future carbon burned.
• Since forcing can be calculated directly from
CO2, it is a very important model
Devin Cormia ‘The Gaia Hypothesis’ Carlmont High School AP Bio Term Project 2005

6. Global Fossil Emissions Through 2000
Historic amounts of petroleum, coal, natural gas, and cement production

7. Carbon Emissions and CO2
• Carbon burned => CO2
Year C burned ppm CO2
1900 12307 295 • Linear from 1850 to 2000
1910 19174 300 - ppm CO2 =2.55 e10-4 *M tons C
1920 28050 305 + 297 ppm (r2*100=99%)
1930 37914 310
1940 48566 310 • ~ 50% of carbon goes
1950 62324 315 into atmospheric CO2
1960 83453 320 – 30% missing carbon
1970 115935 325
1980 164083 340 • Trend is constant over
1990 219365 350 100 years – is this how
2000 283373 370
the biosphere will react
over the next 500 years?

8. Carbon Emissions and CO2
Carbon Emissions and CO2
390
Atmospheric CO2 in ppm
370
350
330
310
290
270
250
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000
Carbon Emissions in Million Tons
Carbon emissions can be used to predict atmospheric CO2
with 99% confidence using simple linear regression data

9. Wealth and Energy
• There is a strong correlation between wealth and
energy – more income => more energy
• Plot log income as a function of log energy
– 85% correlation (r=0.92)
– Slope = 0.73
– Intercept = 5.11
• In 2025, income at 10,000, population ~8x109
• Energy => 108 BTU x 8x109 people = 800 Quads

10. Affluence and Energy Use

11. Log Income vs. Log Energy
Country Income Energy in BTU log income log energy
Kenya 350 4.00E+06 2.54 6.60
• RFF Report - population Vietnam
Pakistan
390
440
7.30E+06
1.27E+07
2.59
2.64
6.86
7.10
India 450 1.15E+07 2.65 7.06
• Resources For the Future Zimbabwe
Armenia
460
520
1.13E+07
2.00E+07
2.66
2.72
7.05
7.30
Congo 570 3.00E+06 2.76 6.48
• http://www.rff.org/ Indonesia
Georgia
570
630
1.15E+07
2.50E+07
2.76
2.80
7.06
7.40
China 840 2.70E+07 2.92 7.43
• Three groups of countries Iran
South Africa
1680
3020
7.70E+07
9.40E+07
3.23
3.48
7.89
7.97
Turkey 3100 5.10E+07 3.49 7.71
– Low income Brazil
Venzuala
3580
4310
3.60E+07
9.20E+07
3.55
3.63
7.56
7.96
Chile 4590 5.40E+07 3.66 7.73
– Medium income Mexico
South Korea
5070
8910
6.00E+07
1.41E+08
3.71
3.95
7.78
8.15
New Zealand 12990 1.70E+08 4.11 8.23
– High income Isreal
Italy
16710
20160
1.21E+08
1.20E+08
4.22
4.30
8.08
8.08
Australia 20420 2.64E+08 4.31 8.42
• 800 BTU rise / $1 income Canada
France
21130
24090
3.32E+08
1.28E+08
4.32
4.38
8.52
8.11
United Kingdom 24430 1.40E+08 4.39 8.15
• Baseline of ~ 125,000 BTU Germany
United States
25120
34100
1.72E+08
3.07E+08
4.40
4.53
8.24
8.49
Japan 35620 1.43E+08 4.55 8.16

12. EIA Global Energy Demand

13. Future CO2 – the Next 30 Yrs
Year Emissions CO2
2000 283,373 369
2005 318,465 378
2010 357,209 388
2015 399,986 399
2020 447,216 411
2025 499,360 424
2030 556,932 439

14. Vostok Ice Core Data
•A perfect correlation between CO2, temperature, and sea level
•For every one ppm CO2, sea level rises 1 meter, temp rises .05 C (global)
•Process takes 100 years to add 1 ppm CO2, and reach thermal equilibrium
This is not just a correlation, this is a complex and dynamic process, with multiple
inputs. Touching one input affects all other inputs, and increases in temperature
becomes a further feedback and multiplier of these inputs.

15. GHGs and Vostok Data
James Kirchner Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley

16. Forcing Models
• Calculating greenhouse numbers
– Start with some basic physics
– Get out your log calculator
• CO2 is straightforward to calculate
– Generate forcing in watts, temps in
degrees C, factor in thermal inertia
• Data validated by NASA / NOAA
– Model fits observed ocean warming well
– Also explains the Vostok ice core data

17. Calculating Radiative Forcing
[current ppm CO2]
5.35 watts x ln _______________
[historic ppm CO2]
Temperature increase C = 2/3 Watts radiative forcing

18. Forcing Model from GISS
• http://www.giss.nasa.gov/
• Definitive work in March 2005
• 1,800 ocean buoys sampling temperatures at depth
of 0 to 2,500 meters from 1900 - 2000
• Temps must rise 0.66 0C per 1 W of forcing
• ‘Thermal inertia’ of oceans requires 25 to 50 years to
experience 60% of total ‘equilibration’
• http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20050428/

19. Earth Out of Balance
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20050428/

20. Effect of Climate Feedbacks
Missing feedbacks, asymmetric uncertainties, and the underestimation of future warming
Margaret S. Torn and John Harte AGU GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L10703

21. Estimating the Effect of Climate Feedbacks to an Initial Thermal Input
Final
PPM CO2 Temp input Feedback (g)
Temperature
0.5 1.0 C
350 0.50 C
0.7 1.7 C
0.5 1.5 C
400 0.75 C
0.7 2.3 C
0.5 2.0 C
450 1.00 C
0.7 3.3 C
0.5 2.5 C
500 1.25 C
0.7 4.2 C
0.5 3.0 C
550 1.50 C
0.7 5.0 C

22. Spreadsheet Modeling
Year G tons C Cum C ppm CO2 forcing (W) temp force temp felt temp owed temp
2000 6.00 306.00 372.0 1.66 1.99 1.00 0.99 58.00
2001 6.12 312.12 373.5 1.69 2.02 1.02 1.00 58.02
2002 6.24 318.36 375.0 1.71 2.05 1.05 1.00 58.05
2003 6.37 324.73 376.6 1.73 2.08 1.07 1.01 58.07
2004 6.49 331.22 378.1 1.76 2.11 1.10 1.01 58.10
2005 6.62 337.85 379.8 1.78 2.14 1.13 1.01 58.13
2006 6.76 344.61 381.4 1.81 2.17 1.15 1.02 58.15
2007 6.89 351.50 383.1 1.83 2.20 1.18 1.03 58.18
2008 7.03 358.53 384.8 1.86 2.23 1.20 1.03 58.20
2009 7.17 365.70 386.6 1.89 2.26 1.23 1.04 58.23
2010 7.31 373.01 388.4 1.91 2.30 1.25 1.04 58.25
2011 7.46 380.47 390.2 1.94 2.33 1.28 1.05 58.28
2012 7.61 388.08 392.1 1.97 2.36 1.31 1.06 58.31
2013 7.76 395.84 394.0 2.00 2.40 1.33 1.07 58.33
2014 7.92 403.76 395.9 2.03 2.43 1.36 1.07 58.36
2015 8.08 411.84 397.9 2.06 2.47 1.39 1.08 58.39
2016 8.24 420.07 399.9 2.09 2.50 1.41 1.09 58.41
2017 8.40 428.47 402.0 2.12 2.54 1.44 1.10 58.44
2018 8.57 437.04 404.1 2.15 2.58 1.47 1.11 58.47
2019 8.74 445.78 406.2 2.18 2.61 1.50 1.12 58.50
2020 8.92 454.70 408.4 2.21 2.65 1.52 1.13 58.52
2021 9.09 463.79 410.6 2.24 2.69 1.55 1.14 58.55
2022 9.28 473.07 412.9 2.27 2.73 1.58 1.15 58.58
2023 9.46 482.53 415.2 2.31 2.77 1.61 1.16 58.61
2024 9.65 492.18 417.6 2.34 2.81 1.64 1.17 58.64
2025 9.84 502.03 420.0 2.37 2.85 1.67 1.18 58.67

23. Forcing / Heat From CO2
Year CO2 Forcing (W) 0
C / 0F
1900 300 0.40 .27 / .48
1950 310 0.60 .40 / .71
1975 325 0.87 .58 / 1.05
2000 370 1.78 1.2 / 2.1
2025 420 2.37 1.6 / 2.8
2050 480 3.15 2.1 / 3.8
2075 510 3.50 2.3 / 4.2
2100 540 3.84 2.6 / 4.6

24. Forcing, Predicted Temperature,
and Climate Lag, 2000 - 2100
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
Forcing
2.5
Felt
2
Owed
1.5
1
0.5
0
2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
0
F -Model built assuming ~60% of forcing is felt in 25 – 50 years

25. Ocean Acidification
Ocean acidification is equally as dangerous as climate change, and actually slows
the rate of the ocean’s CO2 pump, making GHG emissions more significant.

26. So What Can We Do?
• Stop burning fossil fuels – quickly
• Invest in energy efficiency - lower BTU/$
• Develop biofuels at scale – quickly
• Replace coal with natural gas and wind
• Put solar PV on EVERY viable rooftop
• Lower building energy by at least 50%
• Increase vehicle fuel efficiency => 50 mpg
• Rethink nuclear power => thorium / PBMR

27. Clean Energy Economy

28. Honda Insight – MPG Champ
61 / 70 MPG
Seating for two
1 liter - 3 cylinders
‘electric turbocharger’
2,000 pounds
All aluminum body

29. No Gas Required

30. Move Differently
• SolarSegway™
• Range ~8 - 12 miles
• Battery packs can be
charged locally (~5 hrs)
• Emission free vehicle
– Solar panels ‘extra’
• Projected cost of
$2,500 in quantity

32. Sustainability Base

33. Will it be Enough?
• Probably not, but it’s the right direction
• Focus on efficiency and fuel switching
• Phasing out fossil fuels is necessary for
pollution and geopolitical reasons alone
• Building and vehicle efficiency save $s
• Need to counter the effect of I=PAT
– population => wealth => energy => IMPACT

34. Global Carbon Profiles
USA 5.1
Canada 4.0
England 2.5
Germany 2.2
Developing World France 2.0 North America
Mexico 1.0 Europe
China 0.6
India 0.3
Tons of carbon per person – year 2000 average = ~1.1 2025 at least 1.25

35. Calculating I=PAT
• Calculating I=PAT
– Population
– Affluence
– Technology
• Look at 6.6 x 109 people growing to ~8 x 109
• Carbon per person grows from ~1.2 to ~1.5
• Global GHG emissions rise by 50% by 2025
• Cannot have global energy based on carbon

36. The Population Problem
8 billion people @ 1.25 tons each = 10 G tons of carbon / year
That is 50% more carbon emissions than today!

37. Numbers Matter
• Get BTU per dollar GDP from 8,000 to 5,000
– stretch goal is 2500 BTU/$ , radical efficiency
• At $100T GDP => still at 500 quads energy
• Lower carbon intensity from %85 to <50%
• Increase efficiency while simultaneously
lowering carbon intensity => diet / exercise
• Produce energy locally with PV and wind
• Replace all of coal with advanced nuclear

38. From Information to Choices
We can do this, but the clock is running!

39. What You Can Do
• Drive less, drive smart
• Invest in clean energy
• Conserve on energy use
• We need to cut CO2 emissions by 80%
• Be deeply aware of the problem
– This is the most significant problem facing
the planet over the next 50 to 100 years
– Single largest economic opportunity ever!

40. References
• http://www.realclimate.org/
• http://www.giss.nasa.gov/
• http://www.sc.doe.gov/ober/CCRD/model.html
• http://www.nersc.gov/projects/gcm_data/
• http://www.fuelcells.org/
• http://www.solarelectricpower.org/
• http://www.nrel.gov/
• http://www.eia.doe.gov/
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil