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Pricing Renewable FEED in Tariff design and
structure for wind Farms and
Solar (PV-CSP) plants
                   23rd – 27th Oct 2011




                  Prepared by

                  Hanin Alsouri
                  Meqdad Qad
                  xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Overview
Total area: 89 342 sq. Km
Population: 6.113 M
Sea Port: Aqaba
GDP:
18,762 million JD (MUS$ 26,426)
GDP per Capita:
 3,069 JD (US$ 4,320)
GDP Growth:
7% annually (2000-2010)
Jordan’s Power System (2010)
 Peak Load: 2650 MW

 Generated Energy: 14777 GWh

 Imported Energy : 670 GWh

 Exported Energy : 57 GWh

 Installed Capacity: 3148 MW

 Transmission Lines Length: 4035 Km.circuit

 Main Substations Capacity: 9657 MVA

 Electrification Rate: 99.9%
Jordan’s Power System
Energy generated by fuel type:

                                                    LFO         Renewabl
                                                     3%            0.5%
                                                          Imported
                              LFO
                                                          Electricity
                              0.4%
                                                             4%
                            Renewable
    NG                        0.5%
   89%                   Imported      NG
                         Electricity   69%          HFO
                   HFO      3%
                                                    24%
                   8%




         2009                                2010
Jordan’s Power System
Generation Expansion Plan

 Committed Expansion Plan
     Year         Project       ]Capacity [MW

     2011         IPP2(ST)          132

  End of 2013   Samra III(ST)       140

     2013           IPP4            250

     2014           IPP3            350
Energy Policy:
Ensuring security of supply of all energy forms.

Diversification of energy sources.

Enhancing the efforts to utilize the local energy

  resources.

Increasing the share of the renewable energy in the

  total mix of primary energy.
Electricity Sector in Jordan
                                         Ministry of Energy &
 Policy Maker                             Mineral Resources



                                           Electricity Regulatory
Observer & Regulator & licenser                Commission


                                             CEGCO
      Generation &
         Power                               SEPGCO
        Producers                 AES JORDAN (IPP1) + QEPC (IPP2)

                                         Interconnection
   Transmission owner &
     System Operator                        NEPCO
                                                JEPCO

                                                IDECO
   Distribution
                                                 EDCO
Single Buyer Model

Generation                               Electrical
                       IPPs
Companies                                Interconnection


                              NEPCO
        Transmission Network + System Operator
                     + Bulk Supplier


 Distribution
                                Principal
 Companies
                                Consumers


 Consumers
PV Applications in Jordan
              More than 100 PV systems were
              installed in Jordan since 1985


                Water Pumping
                Communications
                Police Stations
PV Applications in Jordan
             More than 100 PV systems were
             installed in Jordan since 1985


               Water Pumping
                Police Stations
               Communications
                Schools
                Teachers Residences
                 Clinics
                Mosques
                  Others


                  TOTAL 500 KWp
Electricity Generation by Wind Energy
Al-Ibrahimiah wind farm- 320   Hofa wind farm 1.125 MW,
   kW, established in 1987        established in 1996
Wind Data Base

Ibrahimya 1
Ibrahimya 2

                          Hofa                       • 34 Stations
                        Kamsha          Al-Reesheh   • Wind speed is measured at
                        Jubeiha                        different heights
                          Fakoe                              (10,40 m)
                        Zabda                                (10,40,50 m)
                        Tafila
                                                             (30,45 m)
                                  Fujaij 1                   (22,40,60 m)
                                  Fujaij 2
               Ar-Rajef           Fujaij 3
                                                             (10,24 m)
                                  Fujaij 4
              Aqaba 1             Fujaij 5
              Aqaba 2
              Aqaba 3
Biogas Energy
• The total installed capacity used biogas for electricity
  generation is about 4 MW at Russifa biogas project.
• The future plans are to expand the biogas utilization
  for power generation purposes such that the installed
  capacity reaches 20 MW by the year 2020.
Legislations
    and
Regulations
Jordan Renewable policy targets
• 2007 Energy Strategy, has set ambitious goals for the
  development of RE:
• By the year 2020, the share of RE in primary energy
  supply is to increase from the current 1% to 10%.
   – wind power (installation of about 1200 MW),
   – solar power (600 MW) and
   – waste/energy (30-50MW).
National Energy Strategy
• Diversify our energy resources
• Reduce dependence on imported energy The strategy
  aims to reduce dependence on imported energy from
  96% in 2007 to 75% in 2015, and 61% in 2020 through:

   – Energy conservation and awareness. Studies indicate
     that Jordan is capable of reducing 20% of its energy
     consumption via energy conservation

   – Expand on renewable energy projects (wind , solar,
     biofuels- 10% by 2020)

   – Utilize domestic resources (oil shale, natural gas, etc.)
Renewable Energy & EE Law
• The Law was Approved in Feb, 2010
   – Allowing the government to establish companies for
     implementing RE project with the participation of the
     private sector
   – The mechanism of dealing with any proposal submitted
     to the government by the private sector
   – Awarding special certificate by the government to RE
     project
   – Electric tariff for RE projects
Renewable Energy Law / Energy
     Efficiency Fund…(Financing)
– Incentives (Tax and custom duty and land
  leasing breaks )
– A fund to be known as (Renewable Energy and
  Energy Efficiency Fund) A fund which will be
  used for “supporting” renewable energy and
  energy conservation projects.
– The Fund shall enjoy all exemptions and facilities
  provided for Ministries and government
  departments.
- Global Environmental Facility GEF
Economic Indicators:
• 1800 MW RE mix in 2020 as considered in
  Government policy fits with the potential analysis
  and with the Network capacity limits.

• Indicative prices range are different following
  different technologies. Within each technology
  Prices are most sensitive to Capacity Factor and
  Investment Cost, and financial variables.
Future
Planning
Electricity Demand Forecast
     Main Drivers for
     Demand Growth:
 • Population growth.
 • Economic growth.

                                                                   7.1%
     25000


     20000


     15000                                                         5.5%
MW




     10000
                                                                   3.9%
     5000

        0
             2010
             2011
             2012
             2013
             2014
             2015
             2016
             2017
             2018
             2019
             2020
             2021
             2022
             2023
             2024
             2025
             2026
             2027
             2028
             2029
             2030
             2031
             2032
             2033
             2034
             2035
             2036
             2037
             2038
             2039
             2040
                  Low Forecast   Medium Forecast   High Forecast
Renewable Energy Strategy

           Wind Energy
         2020      1200 MW

            Solar Energy

         2020             600 MW



Total Renewable Energy Sources Capacity up to year 2020:
1800 MW ( 10% of total Energy)
Generation Split by source
National Energy Strategy:
                                     2010 – 2020
                        The Energy Mix in Jordan (2010 – 2020)

                                                Renewable
                                                                                                 2010
                                                  Energy
                                                   2%                 N.G
                                                                      31%


                                                                       Electricty
                               Crude oil &
                                                                       Imported
                                Products
                                                                          2%
                                  65%




2015                                     Domestic Resources 4%, Imported 96%                            2020
   Oil         Imported
                              Renewable7%
                                             2015                     Imported Renewable 10%              2020
Shale 11%    Electricity 2%                                                                  Nuclear 6%
                                                           Oil      Electricity 1%
                                                        Shale 14%




                                    Oil Products 51%                                           Oil Products 40%
        N. Gas 29%                                                      N. Gas 29%


      Domestic Resources 25%, Imported 75%                             Domestic Resources 39%, Imported 61%
2012 – 2020 Renewables program
   Power plant             Unit Capacity, 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
         Wind               W1    MW
                                  100                          100  100  100  100  100  100  100
         Wind               W2     100                        100   100   100   100    100    100    100
         Wind               W3     100                        100   100   100   100    100    100    100
         Wind               W4     200                        200   200   200   200    200    200    200
         Wind               W5     100                              100   100   100    100    100    100
         Wind               W6     300                                    300   300    300    300    300
         Wind               W7     200                                          200    200    200    200
         Wind               W8     100                                                        100    100
         Solar             CSP1    100                                          100    100    100    100
         Solar             CSP2    100                                                 100    100    100
  Solar with storage       CSP3    200                                                        200    200
         Solar             CSP4    100                                                        100    100
          PV               PV1      10              10   10   10    10    10     10    10     10      10
          PV               PV2      10                   10   10    10    10     10    10     10      10
          PV               PV3      10                        10    10    10     10    10     10      10
          PV               PV4      10                              10    10     10    10     10      10
          PV               PV5      10                                    10     10    10     10      10
          PV               PV6      10                                           10    10     10      10
          PV               PV7      10                                                 10     10      10
          PV               PV8      10                                                        10      10
          PV               PV9      20                                                                20
      Total Wind            W      1100    0    0    0    0   500   600   900   1100   1100   1200   1200
      Total Solar          CSP     300     0    0    0    0    0     0     0    100    200    300    300
Total Solar with storage   CSP s   200     0    0    0    0    0     0     0     0      0     200    200
       Total PV             PV     100     0    0   10   20   30    40    50     60    70     80     100
TOTAL AVAILABLE                    1800    0    0   10   20   530   640   950   1260 1370 1780 1800
Generation Expansion Plan
Base Case Scenario (BCS):
     16000
     14000
     12000
     10000
MW




     8000
     6000
     4000
     2000
        0
             2011
             2012
             2013
             2014
             2015
             2016
             2017
             2018
             2019
             2020
             2021
             2022
             2023
             2024
             2025
             2026
             2027
             2028
             2029
             2030
             2031
             2032
             2033
             2034
             2035
             2036
             2037
             2038
             2039
             2040
               Existing & Committed   GT   Steam   Peak Load

             GT: 1140 MW
             Steam: 13200 MW
Generation Expansion Plan
Nuclear&Oil Shale Scenario (NOS):
      16000
      14000
      12000
      10000
 MW




      8000
      6000
      4000
      2000
         0
              2011
              2012
              2013
              2014
              2015
              2016
              2017
              2018
              2019
              2020
              2021
              2022
              2023
              2024
              2025
              2026
              2027
              2028
              2029
              2030
              2031
              2032
              2033
              2034
              2035
              2036
              2037
              2038
              2039
              2040
         Existing & Committed   GT   Steam   NPP   OSPP   Peak Load




        GT: 1080 MW                      NPP: 5000 MW
        Steam: 7200 MW                   OSPP: 900 MW
Uranium:
Jordan has an estimation of 80,000 tones of
uranium deposits plus 100,000 tones in its
phosphate reserves. Jordan has taken
practical steps to start extraction of uranium
deposits.


Jordan has signed in February 2008 an
agreement with AREVA (a French company)
to start extraction of uranium in a specified
location in the central part of Jordan.
Oil Shale
 Oil shale in Jordan is available in big
  quantities in Jordan.           These
  quantities are estimated at about (40)
  billion tons.
 Major deposits are located in the
  central part of Jordan

 The     negotiation    with    EESTI
  ENERGIA to build an Oil Shale
  Power Plant (OSPP) using direct
  burning technology with a proposed
  capacity up to 900 MW is still going
  on
 The OSPP is expected to be in
  operation by the end of year 2016.
Challenges against RE
 RE may located far from the existing grid,
  interconnecting a renewable energy resource
  to the grid could trigger the need for tens of
  millions .
 RETs have high capital investment costs
  compared with conventional technologies.
 RE have very low capacity factor comparing
  with conventional technologies
 Non confirmed capacity to the network
  therefore we cannot consider in our
  generation plan.
Challenges against RE
 Environmental Limitation
•   Wind:
1-Noise level of wind energy is very high
2- bird migration
3- one MW of wind energy need 10,000 square
    meter
•   Solar:
1- Dust :Low efficiency and added cost cause of
   dust .
2- One MW of P.V energy need 25,000 square
    meter
Thank you for your
    attention

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Pricing Renewable FEED in Tariff design and structure for wind Farms and Solar (PV-CSP) plants

  • 1. Pricing Renewable FEED in Tariff design and structure for wind Farms and Solar (PV-CSP) plants 23rd – 27th Oct 2011 Prepared by Hanin Alsouri Meqdad Qad xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • 2. Overview Total area: 89 342 sq. Km Population: 6.113 M Sea Port: Aqaba GDP: 18,762 million JD (MUS$ 26,426) GDP per Capita:  3,069 JD (US$ 4,320) GDP Growth: 7% annually (2000-2010)
  • 3. Jordan’s Power System (2010) Peak Load: 2650 MW Generated Energy: 14777 GWh Imported Energy : 670 GWh Exported Energy : 57 GWh Installed Capacity: 3148 MW Transmission Lines Length: 4035 Km.circuit Main Substations Capacity: 9657 MVA Electrification Rate: 99.9%
  • 4. Jordan’s Power System Energy generated by fuel type: LFO Renewabl 3% 0.5% Imported LFO Electricity 0.4% 4% Renewable NG 0.5% 89% Imported NG Electricity 69% HFO HFO 3% 24% 8% 2009 2010
  • 6. Generation Expansion Plan Committed Expansion Plan Year Project ]Capacity [MW 2011 IPP2(ST) 132 End of 2013 Samra III(ST) 140 2013 IPP4 250 2014 IPP3 350
  • 7. Energy Policy: Ensuring security of supply of all energy forms. Diversification of energy sources. Enhancing the efforts to utilize the local energy resources. Increasing the share of the renewable energy in the total mix of primary energy.
  • 8. Electricity Sector in Jordan Ministry of Energy & Policy Maker Mineral Resources Electricity Regulatory Observer & Regulator & licenser Commission CEGCO Generation & Power SEPGCO Producers AES JORDAN (IPP1) + QEPC (IPP2) Interconnection Transmission owner & System Operator NEPCO JEPCO IDECO Distribution EDCO
  • 9. Single Buyer Model Generation Electrical IPPs Companies Interconnection NEPCO Transmission Network + System Operator + Bulk Supplier Distribution Principal Companies Consumers Consumers
  • 10. PV Applications in Jordan More than 100 PV systems were installed in Jordan since 1985 Water Pumping Communications Police Stations
  • 11. PV Applications in Jordan More than 100 PV systems were installed in Jordan since 1985 Water Pumping Police Stations Communications Schools Teachers Residences Clinics Mosques Others TOTAL 500 KWp
  • 12. Electricity Generation by Wind Energy Al-Ibrahimiah wind farm- 320 Hofa wind farm 1.125 MW, kW, established in 1987 established in 1996
  • 13. Wind Data Base Ibrahimya 1 Ibrahimya 2 Hofa • 34 Stations Kamsha Al-Reesheh • Wind speed is measured at Jubeiha different heights Fakoe (10,40 m) Zabda (10,40,50 m) Tafila (30,45 m) Fujaij 1 (22,40,60 m) Fujaij 2 Ar-Rajef Fujaij 3 (10,24 m) Fujaij 4 Aqaba 1 Fujaij 5 Aqaba 2 Aqaba 3
  • 14. Biogas Energy • The total installed capacity used biogas for electricity generation is about 4 MW at Russifa biogas project. • The future plans are to expand the biogas utilization for power generation purposes such that the installed capacity reaches 20 MW by the year 2020.
  • 15. Legislations and Regulations
  • 16. Jordan Renewable policy targets • 2007 Energy Strategy, has set ambitious goals for the development of RE: • By the year 2020, the share of RE in primary energy supply is to increase from the current 1% to 10%. – wind power (installation of about 1200 MW), – solar power (600 MW) and – waste/energy (30-50MW).
  • 17. National Energy Strategy • Diversify our energy resources • Reduce dependence on imported energy The strategy aims to reduce dependence on imported energy from 96% in 2007 to 75% in 2015, and 61% in 2020 through: – Energy conservation and awareness. Studies indicate that Jordan is capable of reducing 20% of its energy consumption via energy conservation – Expand on renewable energy projects (wind , solar, biofuels- 10% by 2020) – Utilize domestic resources (oil shale, natural gas, etc.)
  • 18. Renewable Energy & EE Law • The Law was Approved in Feb, 2010 – Allowing the government to establish companies for implementing RE project with the participation of the private sector – The mechanism of dealing with any proposal submitted to the government by the private sector – Awarding special certificate by the government to RE project – Electric tariff for RE projects
  • 19. Renewable Energy Law / Energy Efficiency Fund…(Financing) – Incentives (Tax and custom duty and land leasing breaks ) – A fund to be known as (Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Fund) A fund which will be used for “supporting” renewable energy and energy conservation projects. – The Fund shall enjoy all exemptions and facilities provided for Ministries and government departments. - Global Environmental Facility GEF
  • 20. Economic Indicators: • 1800 MW RE mix in 2020 as considered in Government policy fits with the potential analysis and with the Network capacity limits. • Indicative prices range are different following different technologies. Within each technology Prices are most sensitive to Capacity Factor and Investment Cost, and financial variables.
  • 22. Electricity Demand Forecast Main Drivers for Demand Growth: • Population growth. • Economic growth. 7.1% 25000 20000 15000 5.5% MW 10000 3.9% 5000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Low Forecast Medium Forecast High Forecast
  • 23. Renewable Energy Strategy Wind Energy 2020 1200 MW Solar Energy 2020 600 MW Total Renewable Energy Sources Capacity up to year 2020: 1800 MW ( 10% of total Energy)
  • 25. National Energy Strategy: 2010 – 2020 The Energy Mix in Jordan (2010 – 2020) Renewable 2010 Energy 2% N.G 31% Electricty Crude oil & Imported Products 2% 65% 2015 Domestic Resources 4%, Imported 96% 2020 Oil Imported Renewable7% 2015 Imported Renewable 10% 2020 Shale 11% Electricity 2% Nuclear 6% Oil Electricity 1% Shale 14% Oil Products 51% Oil Products 40% N. Gas 29% N. Gas 29% Domestic Resources 25%, Imported 75% Domestic Resources 39%, Imported 61%
  • 26. 2012 – 2020 Renewables program Power plant Unit Capacity, 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Wind W1 MW 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Wind W2 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Wind W3 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Wind W4 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 Wind W5 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Wind W6 300 300 300 300 300 300 Wind W7 200 200 200 200 200 Wind W8 100 100 100 Solar CSP1 100 100 100 100 100 Solar CSP2 100 100 100 100 Solar with storage CSP3 200 200 200 Solar CSP4 100 100 100 PV PV1 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 PV PV2 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 PV PV3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 PV PV4 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 PV PV5 10 10 10 10 10 10 PV PV6 10 10 10 10 10 PV PV7 10 10 10 10 PV PV8 10 10 10 PV PV9 20 20 Total Wind W 1100 0 0 0 0 500 600 900 1100 1100 1200 1200 Total Solar CSP 300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 200 300 300 Total Solar with storage CSP s 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 200 Total PV PV 100 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 100 TOTAL AVAILABLE 1800 0 0 10 20 530 640 950 1260 1370 1780 1800
  • 27. Generation Expansion Plan Base Case Scenario (BCS): 16000 14000 12000 10000 MW 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Existing & Committed GT Steam Peak Load GT: 1140 MW Steam: 13200 MW
  • 28. Generation Expansion Plan Nuclear&Oil Shale Scenario (NOS): 16000 14000 12000 10000 MW 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Existing & Committed GT Steam NPP OSPP Peak Load GT: 1080 MW NPP: 5000 MW Steam: 7200 MW OSPP: 900 MW
  • 29. Uranium: Jordan has an estimation of 80,000 tones of uranium deposits plus 100,000 tones in its phosphate reserves. Jordan has taken practical steps to start extraction of uranium deposits. Jordan has signed in February 2008 an agreement with AREVA (a French company) to start extraction of uranium in a specified location in the central part of Jordan.
  • 30. Oil Shale  Oil shale in Jordan is available in big quantities in Jordan. These quantities are estimated at about (40) billion tons.  Major deposits are located in the central part of Jordan  The negotiation with EESTI ENERGIA to build an Oil Shale Power Plant (OSPP) using direct burning technology with a proposed capacity up to 900 MW is still going on  The OSPP is expected to be in operation by the end of year 2016.
  • 31. Challenges against RE  RE may located far from the existing grid, interconnecting a renewable energy resource to the grid could trigger the need for tens of millions .  RETs have high capital investment costs compared with conventional technologies.  RE have very low capacity factor comparing with conventional technologies  Non confirmed capacity to the network therefore we cannot consider in our generation plan.
  • 32. Challenges against RE  Environmental Limitation • Wind: 1-Noise level of wind energy is very high 2- bird migration 3- one MW of wind energy need 10,000 square meter • Solar: 1- Dust :Low efficiency and added cost cause of dust . 2- One MW of P.V energy need 25,000 square meter
  • 33. Thank you for your attention