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3. Disaster: A disaster is an extreme disruption of the functioning of a society that causes widespread human, material, or environmental losses that exceed the ability of the affected society to cope using only its own resources. “(Quarantelli E.L. 1998)

4. Hazards: Refers to the potential occurrence, in a specific time period and geographic area, of a natural phenomenon that may adversely affect human life, property or activity to the extent of causing a disaster. (Quarantelli E.L. 1998)

5. Vulnerability: Susceptibility to loss, damage, destruction, or casualty from potential disasters.(Dorothea Hilhorst. 2004)

6. Mitigation: The permanent reduction of the disaster risk and can be categorized as “primary mitigation” which refers to reducing the presence of the hazard and of the vulnerability, and “secondary mitigation”, which refers to reducing the impact of the hazard. (David MacCollum , 2006)

7. Preparedness: Covers the measures that insure the organized mobilization of personel, funds, equipment and supplies within a safe environment for effective relief, “response” can be defined as the set of activities implemented after the impact of a disaster in order to assess the needs, reduce the suffering, limit the spread and the consequences of the disaster and open the way to rehabilitation. (David MacCollum , 2006) 2

8. Layout of the Presentation 3

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12. 7 Source: ADRC, Japan based on CRED EM-DAT database,

13. 8 Source: Quarterly Journal of PDMA-PaRRSA, August 2010 Figure 4 shows that, rate of disasters increased in last decade as compared to last 53 years. This is due to impacts of global climate change after 1990s in Pakistan.

14. 9 Source: IFAD 2010. Spate Irrigation, Livelihood Improvement and. Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change

15. 10 Source: CRED EM-DAT Global natural disaster occurrence and impact: 1980–2007.

16. 11 Global climate impacts on South Asia/Pacific countries Temperature rise to 0.5-2C by 2030 and 1-7C by 2070 Greater rainfall during summer, monsoon and winter rainfall declines Strongest precipitation events Fast melting Himalaya and Hindu-Kush glaciers Increasing global sea-level Variability associated with EL Nino-southern Oscillation Impacts on Pakistan Temperatures are increasing rapidly in arid areas of Northern Pakistan. Temperatures in the country’s coastal areas have risen since the early 1900s by 0.6 to 1C Precipitation has decreased 10 to 15% in the coastal belt and hyper-arid planes over the last 40 years Summer rains increased and winter decreased in Northern Pakistan Himalaya glaciers that feed whole Indus River system in Pakistan is melting rapidly Source: IFAD. (2007). climate change impacts in the Asian/Pacific region . The Global Mechanism

17. 12 Figure 6 shows that disaster has inverse relationship with income. i.e. low income fall under key target of disaster and its distraction scale.

18. 13 Figure 7 shows that vulnerability is related to level of preparedness for any disaster. Community are found less sustainable when they are poor to social and economic impact.

20. Highlighting major factors of disasters

21. Uncover the local strengths of tackling disasters

22. Highlighting linked problems of study area14

24. Disaster situation has not being studied through casual linkages in the past. This study would explore these linkages especially in the context of Pre-Post Disaster situation in coastal areas of sindh15

25. To assess the role of local knowledge, skills and resources for preparedness and mitigation measures in reduction of vulnerability in coastal communities against disaster in Sindh province of Pakistan 16

27. Extent of damages caused by various natural disasters in past 20 years in coastal area of Sindh

28. Accumulate local knowledge in handling and forecasting the disaster and the use of that knowledge towards preparedness of natural disasters

29. To analyze public initiatives in disaster management- both pre and post disaster.

30. To develop policy and suggestions17

32. There is no significant plan, preparing strategy to minimize the scale of disaster, both man-made and natural.

33. The scale of disaster and losses in terms of human, property and ecology are significantly high in Sindh to that of elsewhere in Pakistan.

34. The local knowledge that includes preparedness and minimizes the scale of damages caused by disaster is significant that could be used as public policy levels. Geared towards preparing notional policy for contingency, mitigation and preparatory plans. 18

35. 19

37. Public and private sector offices working on Disaster Management.

38. Primary data

39. Household survey Target population: Badin and Thatta Analysis of Data. Techniques like percentages, charts, tables, figures, Microsoft excel, sample cross table, and SPSS used to analyze the data 20

41. Focused group interviews

42. Secondary reviews.21 Stages of Sampling

43. 22 Source: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. Islamabad, Pakistan. September 27, 2010 Figure 9 shows that as compared to all other countries in South Asia, Pakistan bear most losses. However, the severity of any natural hazard is approximately same in whole South Asia, but Pakistan impacted most because of people’s vulnerability as well as because of mismanagement in disaster management.

44. Source: World Bank (2010). Pakistan 2010 Floods Damage and Needs Assessment

45. 24 Source: Provincial Disaster Management Authority (2008). DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN SINDH PROVINCE Fig 10 shows overall trend of rate of disaster occurrences in last decade throughout the country, the Sindh province faced increasing number of disasters from late last decade to till now. Moreover , increasing climate changes further put Southern region of country i.e. Sindh towards greater number of expected disasters due to its geological position.

46. 25 Source: Provincial Disaster Management Authority (2008). DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN SINDH PROVINCE Fig 11 shows that different type of disasters came in sindh province. From 1947 to 2010 most of these disasters, Flood and Cyclone are on top rank. These floods and cyclone damages life of millions people, socially and economically.

47. 26 Source: Provincial Disaster Management Authority (2008). DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN SINDH PROVINCE From Fig 12 it is clear that most affected districts from different disasters in sindh province are Karachi, Badin and Thatta. These areas are mostly coastal areas, and among these Thatta and Badin are more vulnerable because of their socio-economic condition.

48. 27 Source: Study survey 2010

49. 28 Source: Study survey 2010

50. 29 Source: Study survey 2010

51. 30 Source: Study survey 2010 Figure 16 shows that in selected villages of study area there is not any single high school. At primary and middle level there is no significant difference. Only 20% have the access to middle schools because government did not took any interest to educate this community.

52. 31 Source: Study survey 2010 Figure 17 shows that, in stead of modern hospitals in the area, there are only few Basic health units with low standard equipments, which are also not in the access of the people because of the distance from to village. About 45% of total BHUs are at the distance of 6 to 10 KM, in remote and poor infrastructure area utilizing this facility provided by government is impossible.

53. 32 Source: Study survey 2010 Figure 18 shows that in the study area women’s economic condition is very worst which is leading to less participation in decision making and making them most vulnerable of the society. In the study area 80% of 360 are earning under 5000 per month. Among these 360, 90 are women and 71% of them are unemployed and 16% of 270 men are unemployed. Which is clearly indicating trends of poverty and lack of resources, which leads vulnerability of people.

54. 33 Source: Study survey 2010 Figure 19 shows that in the study area of both districts 15% of total respondents are unemployed. Due to massive losses in disasters people’s trends from traditional occupations (i.e. farming and fisheries) has been changed into labor. Moreover as they are unskilled so they are getting according to their needs.

55. 34 Source: Study survey 2010 Table 3. shows the damages to target population in previous disasters from 1999 to 2010. Table shows extreme losses in life, property, livestock and assets and massive displacement has been occurred.

56. 35 Source: Study survey 2010 Above figure shows after disaster situation. Fig 20.1 shows overall support provided by different stakeholders to disasters victims. Only 6% of total respondents got support from different organizations including government. Rest of 94% did by their selves or by support of community or did not get any support. Which is alarming situation. Means this community can’t resist to any disaster in future.

57. 36 Source: Study survey 2010 Fig 21 Show that among 360 respondents only 21% got Disaster mitigation training like awareness, emergency response and 15.83% out of 360 got support in construction. With out any technical and financial support people repeated pre-disaster construction pattern which did not bring any chance in their vulnerability against disasters.

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59. 38 As pressure release model shows that pressure from three progressions of vulnerability is increasing and from other side expected hazards are also increasing, therefore in the cohesion of hazard and vulnerability “ risk ” is increasing and hence put the whole population in exposure.

61. Large families size and joint family structures but low income.

62. More expenditures and less income and hence not able to respond disasters. Moreover having no land to utilize after disaster for effective self recovery.

63. Lack of sufficient BHUs for effective treatment of people in case of any accident by disaster, people have to move to city and sometimes die in the way

64. Lack of sufficient cyclone shelters ( emergency camp)

65. Lack of adequate transportation to move to cyclone shelters during cyclonic period39

66. 40 Incorporate local knowledge in disaster management local knowledge practices should be used because of their cost effectiveness and to build local trust that ultimately could help in motivating local communities Sustainable measures could be develop to predict disasters using their ability to identify and interpret early warning signals of cyclone based on environmental indicators, weather interpretations/ predictions, smells, sounds, direction and types of wind, unusual appearance and movements of wildlife etc Ability of local population to interpret the landscape and indicators of past cyclones such as the location of past cyclones by looking at the shape, direction, and nature of the wind, sea waves, geology, morphology, etc could help in forecasting disasters. Post-disaster measures could be applied at right time. Pre-disaster measures could be implemented smoothly

68. Anderson, M. and Woodrow, P. (1989) Rising from the Ashes : Development Strategies in Times of Disaster. Paris:UNESCO.

69. Bankoff, G. (2001) .Rendering the World Unsafe: Vulnerability. as Western Discourse., Disasters, 2001, 25(1): 19-35. Oxford: Blackwell.

70. Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSE), (2006), Natural Hazards and Disaster Management. Delhi: PreetVihar.

71. Dekens, J. (2007). local knowledge on desaster preparedness in chitral district, Pakistan. Kathmandu: ICIMOD.

72. Dorothea Hilhorst. 2004. Mapping Vulnerability. Sterling: Earthscan

73. David MacCollum (December 18, 2006). Construction Safety Engineering Principles: Designing and Managing Safer Job Sites

74. DRA Workshop, 24 July, 2003. Asian Disaster Reduction Center.

75. EM-DAT: Emergency Events Database. (online database, accessed in August 2008).

76. Grenier, L. (1998). working with indegenous knowledge, Aguide for researchers. Ottawa: IDRC.

77. IFAD 2010. Spate Irrigation, Livelihood Improvement and. Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change.

78. IFAD. (2007). climate change impacts in the Asian/Pacific region . The Global Mechanism

79. Larson, R.C., M.D. Metzger, and M.F. Cahn.”Responding to emergencies: lesson learned and need for analysis”. Interfaces 37(6)(2006): 486-501.

80. Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. Islamabad, Pakistan. September 27, 2010.

81. Provincial Disaster Management Authority (2008). DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN SINDH PROVINCE

82. Quarterly Journal of PDMA-PaRRSA, August 2010.

83. Quarantelli E.L. (1998). Where We Have Been and Where We Might Go. In: Quarantelli E.L. (ed). What Is A Disaster? London: Routledge. pp146-159

84. Warburton and Martin (1999) and FAO Web site for Gender, Agrobiodiversity and Local Knowledge.

85. World Bank (2010). Pakistan 2010 Floods Damage and Needs Assessment.

86. World International Studies Conference (WISC) at BilgiUniversity.Istambul, Turkey, 24- 27 August 2005

87. Young, E. (1997). Dealing with hazards and disasters: risk perceptions and community participation in manaement. Australian Journal of Emergency Management .41

88. Thank You 42