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How obese will English adults
be in 2020?

A summary
of a recent report
from the National
Heart Forum

Ray Algar
Oxygen Consulting
February 2010
In a nutshell: The report forecasts
obesity trends for English adults
at 2020
Where is the data drawn from?
The authors have analysed data from
the Health Survey for England
(1993 – 2007)
What is the picture at 2020?
Males and females with a body mass
index greater than 30 continues
to rise
How is body mass index defined?
Divide your weight in kilograms by
your height in metres squared
I’m confused; give me an example?
Well, I weigh 91 kilograms and I’m
1.85 metres tall
This means my Body Mass Index
is 24.5 (91 kgs/3.7)
So, how is obese defined?
This is when your Body Mass Index is
greater than 30
If you’re male, the news is worse
English men are becoming obese at a
faster rate than women
If you are a male and will be aged
40-65 in the year 2020, then the
news gets worse still
This group is becoming obese at
a faster rate
Oh dear: I’ve just this realised
I’m part of this group!
…some good news; my wife, who is a
similar age to me, is also in a group
with rising levels of obesity!
Why does obesity matter?
…because it makes us more
susceptible to ‘lifestyle’ diseases
such as…
Coronary heart disease
Diabetes
Stroke
High blood pressure
Certain types of cancers
2020
In the year 2020, 34% of English
males will be obese
2020
In the year 2020, 30% of females
will be obese
…rising to 66% for men & 61% of
women when we include those that
are overweight (on the path
to obesity)
How has the report been received by
the general public?
Here are some comments
from websites
“We have taken personal
 responsibility away and
  replaced it with State
    responsibility, then
       intervention”
   (benevolentdictator)
“My personal opinion is
that the food & intensive
production methods we
eat is to blame.
Long term vegans &
vegetarians are seldom
overweight” (Dave B)
”And still many people try to
blame obesity on genes” (KJ)
What do the report authors have
to say?
'There are already more men
who are obese than who are of a
healthy weight and by the end
of the decade obese men and
women could out-number those
who are overweight
Prof McPherson - Oxford University
So, if you are part of the group
described in this report, what will you
now do to stop becoming a
researcher's statistic?
You can read the report at
(heartforum.org.uk)
About Ray Algar: I provide strategic
insight to organisations connected to
the global health and fitness
industry. I can be contacted at:
insight@oxygen-consulting.co.uk
…that’s all, must RUN!

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UK National Heart Forum Report February 2010