5. Business Dynamics Huge Productivity Exponential decrease in $/function R&D Exponential growth in investment in R&D, Manufacturing, & infrastructure Exponential growth of revenue New Markets Exponential growth in consumption of circuits
6. Industry Trends & Impacts Revenue growth rate of the IC industry to remain lower than traditional rates (single digit vs. double digit). Productivity will improve, though at lower rates Partnerships in development and manufacturing Consolidation Growth and dependency on foundries and off shore manufacturing THE IMPACT
7. Industry Trends & Impacts More focus will be on innovative transistor structures, materials, circuits, design, and systems architecture Investment in R&D required for leadership will continue to grow Traditional drivers of productivity advances will be shifting Partnership model to deliver technology leadership and support the mounting investment to continue the lead THE IMPACT
8. Actions in USA Holds only 21 % of manufacturing capacity and 25 % at leading-edge. But both shares are declining Drives design and process R&D U.S. still drives the global IC industry; though future uncertain
9. Actions in China Share of global manufacturing capacity has grow from 6% in 2006 to 10% in 2007 Most fabs are 2-3 generations behind; but the gap will close Process R&D cluster emerging in Shanghai and Beijing IC design primarily low-end; likely to consolidate with fewer stronger players moving into advanced designs China has grow quickly as a mfg power but slowly in design & technology
10. Actions in Taiwan Design industry will continue >30% growth, expanding share and moving beyond computing and “follower” designs Share of global manufacturing will increase from 23% in 2006 to 27% in 2007 Taiwan is strengthening leading-edge mfg, design, and process integration R&D
11. Conclusion Semiconductor manufacturing capabilities are being driven offshore by market realities Only vertically integrated US IDM’s will be able to stay the course in semiconductors for the near term (4-8 years) Design and integration capabilities will migrate with manufacturing capabilities
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