I Phone Dev Summit Lefty 03 07 08

Open Up Your World

How Open
Is “Open”?

David “Lefty” Schlesinger
Director, Open Source Technologies
ACCESS CO., LTD.

iPhone Developers’ Summit
p
New York, NY
March 20, 2008

Act I: The Battlefield and the Battle

2
Copyright © 2008, ACCESS Systems Americas All rights reserved.

“Smart Phone” Shipments Are Growing

Total Smart Phone Shipments (000 units)
300,000
300 000

250,000

200,000

150,000
150 000

100,000

50,000

0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: In-Stat, 2006

3

Mobile Growth is Outpacing the Desktop

Smart Phone v. PC Shipments (000 units)

300,000

250,000

200,000
00,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
2005 2007 2010
Smartphone Shipments
Source: In-Stat, 2006; eTForecasts, 2006; ACCESS internal estimates
4

Linux Will Take an Increasing Share

Linux Smart Phone Market Share
60%

50%

%
40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: Canalys, 2006
5

An Unprecedented Market for New Software

Linux Smart Phone Shipments (000 Units)
140000

120000

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: In-Stat, 2006
6

Your Cell Phone Is Not Your Desktop System.

Apple Mac Pro Nokia N95

•Gigahertz •Megahertz
•Gigabytes •Megabytes
•30 inches •3 inches
•120 keys •12 keys

•Moore’s Law is still your friend!
•(Other laws of physics may not be.)

7

It’s Sorta the One You Used to Have, Though…

PowerMac G3 Tower Nokia N95

•350 MHz •330 MHz
•64MB RAM
64MB •128MB RAM
128MB
•6GB Disk •8GB “Disk”
•Ethernet •WiFi
(10 Mbps) (54 Mpbs)
•$2,500
•$2 500 •Bluetooth
•(monitor not included) •GPS
•GSM/WCDMA
•$625
•(includes monitor!)

…but at a quarter of the cost!

8

Increasingly Seamless and Ubiquitous
Connectivityy
We can increasingly connect with anyone from
wherever we are…

…and we can connect with them in more ways than
ever b f
before…

9

Connectivityy
More d t is b
M data i becomingly
i l
accessible to us on
demand…

…and more kinds of
data…
data

…coming from more
and more sources…

10

Connectivityy
When it doesn’t matter where you are,
you can be where you please more…

Location and time will increasingly serve our
needs, rather than our serving theirs…

11

Connectivityy
(You are Here.)

Maybe.
12

The Server in My Pocket

I am a self-reconfiguring cloud of devices and data…
I interact with a number of other clouds of devices and
data
My “identity” is distributed
− M social “identity” on my phone, my server, F
My i l “id tit ” h FaceBook, Li k dI
B k LinkedIn…
− My culinary “identity” on Yelp…
− My travel “identity” on Dopplr, SideStep, United…
− My musical “identity” on Last fm Pandora iLike
identity Last.fm, Pandora, iLike…
Add in location…
What happens when everything can talk to
everything?
− Will things I want find me?

13

So, What’s “Open” Mean, Anyway?

“Free” as in “free-for-all”
The many faces of “open”
open
− Is it “open source”?
− Are the platform sources available under an OSI-approved
license?
li ?
− Is it developed in an “open process”?
− Can developers directly participate in platform
development?
− Is it an “open development environment”?
− Can applications developers work unrestrictedly, using the
tools and languages of their choice?
− Does it have “open APIs” or use “open protocols”?
− Is there a notification and review process before APIs are
changed? Are file formats and protocols fully documents?

14

Act II: The Players

15

The Harsh Realities

Nokia owns 40% of the worldwide market
− Nokia phones are supported and marketed by a broad range of
p pp y g
carriers in every geography
− Nokia is increasingly moving into direct sales and services
LiMo, collectively, arguably represents another 30-40%
y g y p
of the worldwide market
− Support from Samsung, Motorola and other major phone vendors
− Support from multiple major carriers in multiple geographies
iPhone is increasingly unlikely to hit its sales targets
− 0.5% of the worldwide market?
− One carrier p g g p y, in a limited number of g g p
O per geography, geographies
Both Apple and Nokia face the pressure of being
proprietary

16

Apple and the iPhone

The iPhone has raised the bar significantly on user
interface and user experience
p
− This is what Apple excels at.
Imitation (and cooption) is the sincerest form of
competition.
titi
− Responding to this is what Apple does poorly.
“You can tell the pioneers by the arrows in their backs.”
p y
− Apple will need to work very hard to stay ahead;
but can they get ahead in sales and maintain the
margins they need?
Will the “iTunes App Store” be an enabler or a
stumbling block?

17

The Open Handset Alliance and Android

The Million-Line Code Dump
− “We’re open source just not now ”
We re source, now.
“Standard”, but not
− “You can trust us, we’re in advertising.”
g
Where’s the business model?
− Who’s giving away what?
− “Free” as in “a dollar”…?
− The ad-based phone
The Android’s Dilemma
Android s
− “It’s like nothing you’ve ever seen before!”
− How to be “open source” and still wind up being
proprietary

18

Mainstream “Mobile Linux”

The ACCESS Linux Platform and efforts like the LiMo
Foundation platform build on open source they
source,
don’t replace it.
− “Open(er) code for open(er) phones.”
− Your regular Linux applications can still work!
ALP and LiMo Foundation middleware implement
features not in current Linux-based systems
Linux based
− Telephony
− Messaging
− Device management
− etc.

19

The Other Participants, Minor and Major

Behind the Scenes: The GNOME Mobile gang
− Moblin org
Moblin.org
− Ubuntu Mobile
− OpenMoko, G(PE)2, others…
The Linux Foundation and the Linux Phone
Standards Forum
− (PS: They don’t make phones )
phones.)
Microsoft and Windows Mobile
− “Look at everything we ve done for desktop
Look we’ve
systems!”
Nokia, the 800-pound gorilla
− Now, with added Trolltech?
ith dd d llt h?

20

Act III: The Approaches: Who’s “Open”?

21

iPhone
Open Source? No.
− “OS X Embedded + Cocoa Touch”
Open Platform Development Process? No.
Open Development Environment? In part.
− D
Development iis li it d t Objective C T
l t limited to Obj ti C. Two
execution environments.
Open APIs, Formats and Protocols? Only in a
p y
limited context.
Open for business? In June, for $99 plus 30% of
revenues.
revenues And Apple is your only distributor
distributor.

22

Android
Open Source? Not yet.
− Linux + Dalvik VM + “Surface Manager” + Android
middleware
− Android will be released when phones ship (2009?)
Open Platform Development Process? No.
p p
− Even when Android is released, its architecture resembles
nothing ever seen before
Open Development Environment? Not really
really.
− Java-only, object-oriented model. Single execution
environment.
O API F t
Open APIs, Formats and Protocols? S f
dP t l ? So far, only in
l i
part.
− Android is still undergoing significant change
g g g g
Open for business? No.
23

Mainstream Mobile Linux

Open Source? Yes, other than proprietary
middleware.
middleware
− Linux + GTK, Gstreamer, BlueZ, etc.
Open Platform Development Process? Yes, other
than proprietary middleware.
− LiMo benefits from the community’s work, the
community will benefit from LiMo’s support and their
LiMo s
work on common software
Open Development Environment? Yes.
− C, C++, Java, web widgets, etc. Multiple execution
environments.
Open APIs and Protocols? Yes.
Open for business? Increasingly.
24

A Typical Linux-based System, Just on a Phone

25

An Extremely Atypical Linux-based System

26

Other Efforts

Open Source?
− Windows Mobile: No.
− Symbian: No.
Open Platform Development Process?
− Windows Mobile: No.
− Symbian: No.
Open Development Environment?
− Windows Mobile: Mostly
Mostly.
− Symbian: Mostly.
Open APIs and Protocols?
− Windo s Mobile: Not in the past, but that’s changing, maybe.
Windows past b t changing ma be
− Symbian: Mostly.

27

Device Security and Why It Matters

iPhone: “Security” via gluing the case shut.
− (Proven not to work well )
well.)
Android: “Security” via making it the user’s
problem.
− (“I see trouble ahead.”)
Mainstream Mobile Linux: Security by using the
facilities of the underlying operating system in a
way which addresses the problem space
− (PS: This is a better approach.)
− Example: Hiker Project Policy-based Security (from
the ACCESS Linux Platform)

28

Openness and Third-Party Ecosystems

Third-party development in an open environment
drives platform improvements (and platform
sales),
Platform sales (and platform improvements) drive
more third-party development, in a benevolent
circle.

29

Fragmentation, and How to Avoid It

Standards are a piece, but standards alone aren’t
enough
g
− Stand-alone standards become “unfunded mandates”
− Standards based on existing practice can become “backward-
looking” too easily
For a reference implementation to evolve to a
standard, it has to be relevant and realistic
− LiMo defines 79 telephony-related APIs; Android defines 12. Which
p y
seem more likely to fragment…?
Evolving standards + reference implementations +
strong community = an overall reduction in
g y
fragmentation

30

Why Community Matters

Reference implementations need some sort of
community
− Who maintains things?
− Who improves things?
g
− Who finds bugs? Who fixes ‘em?
“Berkeley documentation”: The code is the
standard: you h
t d d have t work with the people
to k ith th l
who own the code…

31

Act IV: The Winners

32

“Hey, you! Become a Community!”

Limiting what people can do, and the ways in
which they can do it limits the possibilities for your
it,
ecosystem
There is not a “the open source community”.
− There’s a kernel community; there’s a GTK+
community; there’s a Gstreamer community; there’s
a BlueZ community; there’s a Java community…
y y
“Gifting” the communities with all of your
excellent, completely out-of-left-field ideas, tossed
over the wall all at once in a big wad in the
wad,
expectation that they’ve been waiting around to
maintain them on your behalf, is not a good idea.

33

The Taoist Theory of Management

“Find a good parade, and get in front of it.”
Open source development has proven to be one
of the best parades around
− Shared development cost
− Shared quality burden
− Innovation from unexpected directions

34

What the Future Could Hold

25% off miso ramen in Istanbul!

35

Thank you!


I Phone Dev Summit Lefty 03 07 08

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