Guess on iPhone5C before revealed

1. Mega Guess on iPhone5C
Raistlin.Kong@gmail.com
2013.8.17

2. Disclaimer
No Relationship with Apple and other companies mentioned
Not Working at
No Stocks
All Information is public and collected by Google
Just Guess for Fun, No Guarantees for Digit Accuracy and Facts
Not responsible for any loss caused by decisions based on this
presentation

3. iPhone5C, No Doubt

4. The big next
How Much???

5. The Price Depends
The iPhone5C BOM Cost
The margin expectation of Apple
The Competitors’ Phones

6. Come to the Original
Why iPhone5C?

7. Battle-axe Turn to Street Fight
The User Experience Gap Closing and Even Vanish
Android Mature with Great UI Experience
Android Apps Blooming
People Like Bigger Screen of Android Phones
iPhone4/4s/5 compete with bundles phone models
Many of those are Great and with less than half price of iPhone5
The Price Storm from Chinese Brands Pushes
iPhone Market share down to 4.3% in China 2013Q2 from 9%
2012Q2

8. iPhone 4/4S to quit
Too Old
3.5” Screen is too too Small
Design too Old
Maybe a bit sluggish to run iOS7
Cost Still too High
iPhone4/4S makes iPhone margin lower
But the Price still too High on Market

9. iPhone5C Target
Price Low Enough to Take Back Market Share
It’s aim to Price Sensitive Users
Keep the Margin As High As Possible
Meanwhile Still an iPhone

10. But Street Fight Turn to Iwo Jima
Red Rice from Xiaomi
799￥
100,000 Sold in 90 Seconds
>7,000,000 pre-ordered

11. Red Rice
Processor MT6589T, Quad-Core Cortex-A7 1.5GHz@28nm
Memory 1GB RAM + 4GB ROM
Screen 4.7’ 1280x720 IPS
GPU PowerVR SGX544
Wireless TDSCDMA,GSM/GPRS
OS Android 4.2.2 with MIUI V5
Camera 800M(Sumsung, 28mm,F2.2) + 130M
Connectivity WiFi Direct + Bluetooth 4.0 + USB OTG + Dirac Audio +
GPS + SDCard
Brand Xiaomi
Price 799￥（equal to 110$ pre-tax)

12. About Red Rice
It’s Pretty Good
Hardware Configuration Nearly at Same Level as iPhone5
If You Are not An Apple Fans, It’s Really Good Enough for You
But It’s Really Cheap for a Brand Phone
Not Shanzhai Means the Quality and Service Guaranteed
Meanwhile XiaoMi is A Attractive Brand
Mi Fan(Just like Apple Fans) is Already A Great Group
That’s Why Red Rice Makes Astonishing Hot

13. Why So Cheap
Xiaomi is the Brand Price Killer in China
In-House MIUI Based Android, valued as Mobile Entry
Almost zero profit on Phones While get Profit from Accessories
Mediatek MT6589T turnkey solution Squeeze the BOM cost
Integrate More in SoC and Manufacture with 28nm Process
Using In-House chips: RF/PA, GPS/BT/WiFi, Power Management
Optimize Other component: Small ROM, Reduce Passive component
The Red Rice BOM cost + Manufacture cost less than 100$

14. Red Rice Start Price Slide
Brand Phone With Similar Configuration Previously Sold from
1200￥~2299￥ in China
Small Internet Brands Start Follow 799￥ Price Policy Quickly
The Other China Brands Will be Pushed to Follow Soon
Mediateck Turnkey Solution Makes International Brand Follow
In Easily
Sony, LG Already Design in MTK chips
Do not Surprised if Amazon Got a “Red Rice” Sold at 120$
That Will Shake the US Smartphone Market

15. Pretty Good Smartphone Price Will
Dramatically Going Down

16. And
iPhone5C will Land on Normandy
Beach, Price Got Tough Pressure

17. How Much 16G iPhone5C?
399$ , means 2899￥ in China(add 17% tax)
No One Confident to Take Back Market Share
349$, means 2499￥ in China
299$, 2199￥ in China
Hm, Interesting, Almost the Same Price of the Hi-End Phone of China
Brand such as Xiaomi, Meizu …
269$, 1899￥ in China
Pretty Price, Take Back Market Share, Pretty Possibility to Take Back
Market Share.

18. If it’s 299$
Is it Possible to Keep Margin High？

19. Information and Rumors
iPhone5 4” Screen，Plastic Shell
Confirmed by Images Leaked
iPhone5 Cameras: 8M + 1.2M
Believable
Low Performance Processor That Can Not Running Siri
Siri is the Future Possibilities, is it Wise to Remove it Just for Several
Bucks BOM Saving?
A Processor Lower Performance than A5 Very Possibly make iOS7 and
Apps sluggish But a 99$ Android Phone is Quiet Smooth, Which Will
be Customers’ Choose?

20. A Better Processor Choice
Qualcomm Snapdragon 400 Chips Such As 8930
1.2Ghz Dual-core krait 200 + Adreno 305
Performance Equal to A6, the System is Smooth and Siri Kept
Using Qualcomm Chipset to Cover
Processor
Wireless(LTE not Mandatory, HSPA+ is OK )
Connectivity(BT + WiFi
Power Management
The total Price May Com
This Do Save A Lot $$$, Let’s Check the BOM List

21. iPhone5 BOM List

22. A Estimate on iPhone5C BOM
* iPhone5 Cost Data Source from iSupply 2012 September, iPhone5C Cost no Solid Data Source, Estimate
Based on iPhone5 Component Plus a Compenets Cost Down for 1 Year

23. By Using Qualcomm Snapdragon
Is it Possible to Squeeze iPhone5C
16GB Cost to 120$

24. iPhone5C 16GB Margin
Price 299$
BOM Cost 130$, Margin 56.5%
BOM Cost 120$, Margin 59.9%
BOM Cost 110$, Margin 63.2%
Price 269$
BOM Cost 130$, Margin 51.7%
BOM Cost 120$, Margin 55.3%
BOM Cost 110$, Margin 59.1%

25. iPhone5C Edge
iOS Still Have Better User Experience Than Android
A System Much More Stable and Will not Get Slow Down, Do not
Need Some Optimization Apps for to Keep System Clear and Power
Saving
More Quality Apps and Isolated with Abuse Apps or Malice Apps
But This Takes Several Month Using Compare to Aware
That’s Why iPhone Market Share Up
Brand
It’s Apple

26. If Those Guess is True
Apple Should Win