What will the future look like? What role does the Internet play in your life today, and how will it affect you in the future. This paper expands on current trends and extrapolates what our world will look like in the next thirty years.

1. Future of the Internet
How an ubiquitous Internet of things will lead to more
secure Digital World
Rahul Singh
History of the Future, Spring 2013
Professor Mark Gray
5/9/2013

2. Table of Contents
Future of the Internet .......................................................................................................................................... 1
How an ubiquitous Internet of things will lead to more secure Digital World ........................ 1
Observation ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 1
Hypothesis .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1
Current Evidence of Internet Growth and In-Security ...................................................................... 2
Internet Ubiquity ................................................................................................................................................................................. 2
Internet.Things ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 3
Internet.Crime ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 4
Analysis ................................................................................................................................................................ 5
Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................................... 7
Future of the Internet
ii

3. Rahul Singh
History of the Future, Spring 2013
Professor Mark Gray
5/9/2013
Future of the Internet
How an ubiquitous Internet of things will lead to more secure Digital World
Observation
It wasn't that long ago that owning a computer was something of note. Not everyone had a
computer at home. 1 The Internet, let alone an iPhone were thoughts of science fiction. The
world of computing has come so far that the "Internet" has become pervasive in everyday
life. This new utility is now as important as water, electricity, and cable. It may soon replace
cable.
As new media replaces old media of all kinds, three main features should emerge: The
internet will be available everywhere and in all parts of the world via a grid of overlaying
systems to all people on earth; All electronic devices will be connected to self-organizing
networks that are owned by individuals, corporations, and governments; Cyber crime will
over take every other form of white collar crime to date.
The research in this document reflects a high-level qualitative gathering and analysis of
publications, data-sources, and industry blogs that show observed trends that can be
reasonably projected to continue over the next 10-20 years.
Hypothesis
If more and more electronic devices get on to the Internet, the Internet infrastructure will
need to grow to support the devices. If the Internet continues to grow, it will likely support
more and more non-user Internet devices: the Internet of things. As the number of users
and the Internet of things continue to grow, more and more cybercrime will be prevalent.
An invisible energy and information mesh that connects and controls all electronic devices
and will be the fabric for commerce and education will pervade the future of the world.
Because it will be so important, cyber crime will become commonplace. As cyber crime
1(Plumer,
2013)
Future of the Internet
1

4. becomes commonplace, so will cyber police and cyber military.
More Devices
Bigger
Network
More
Crime
More
Security
Current Evidence of Internet Growth and In-Security
Internet Ubiquity
Although the number of Internet hosts has been plateauing, the number of users has been
steadily increasing in the last 20 years. From 1997 to 2012, the Internet has shown steady
linear growth in developed countries, and slow but exponential growth in the world
globally and in the developing world. In 2006, 82% of the world was not using the Internet.
In 2011 it was 65%.2 Certain regions have seen astronomical growth between 2000 and
2012: Users in Africa grew by 3,606.7%; Users in the Middle East grew by 2,639.9%; and
Users in Latin America and the Caribbean grew by 1,310.8%.3The developing countries are
using the Internet to leapfrog developed countries in some ways. Instead of using
traditional physical networks, they use satellite and cell-networks to get access to the
Internet through mobile devices. The World Bank said that mobile phones have now
reached three-fourths of the world’s population.4
As more and more users become citizens of the Internet, many have strong feelings for the
purpose and use of the Internet. The Global User Internet Survey shows that they see the
Internet as a tool for solving global problems, improving global processes, improving global
initiatives, and as a tool for human rights. These users also expressed an increase in
Internet protection and worries about privacy.5
Growth of the Internet affects the physical world. As users increase, so does the need for
Internet bandwidth and the number of subscribers that pay for broadband Internet.
Research shows that although Internet bandwidth has been steadily increasing, the growth
2(WikiPedia,
2013)
Marketing Group, 2012)
4(World Bank, 2013)
5(Internet Society, 2013)
3(Miniwatts
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5. rate is decreasing.6Although the Internet hubs are primarily between Europe and North
America, Asia, Africa, South America are starting to develop. In Africa, tech-entrepreneurs
are gathering in “Accelerators” similar to the United States.7 These companies are
leveraging the growth of the Internet to create content that originates from their countries
targeted to their countries.
Internet.Things
The measure of the internet in our daily lives is evidenced by the number of devices that
are addressable by a unique IP ("Internet Protocol") address and the number of users using
it. The current Internet uses IPV4 addressing and the emerging version utilizes IPV6. There
were only 4 billion or so addresses or so addresses available until the recent adoption of
IPV6. Although the 4 billion IPs are still being used as the primary addressing system,
institutions around the world are using them up.8The Guardian noted from Cisco’s research
that the number of Internet devices would outnumber the number of humans this year.9
More and more “mobile” devices account for Internet usage. PC’s and Laptops make the
bulk of the internet devices used by users, but users are increasingly opting to use mobile
phones, tablets, and internet TVs as these devices become better at accessing the
internet.10By 2017, non-smartphones
will be a minority.11
Mobile phones, tablets, and Internet TVs
aren’t the only things that utilize the
Internet. Even though many users
accessorize their Internet systems with
other devices, and while these devices
aren’t technically “on the internet”
because they aren’t addressable by an IP
address, they are still connected via
6(PriMetrica,
Inc., 2013)
2012)
8(Botnet, Carna, 2012)
9(Arthur, Charles, 2013)
10(Wastershed Publishing, 2012)
11(Cisco, 2013)
7(Gammon,
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6. wireless protocols of Bluetooth or the many variations of WIFI. These devices can include
home security cameras, wireless printers, cameras, keyboards, and mice.
“The any-to-any world and the Internet of Everything is an evolution in connectivity
and collaboration that is unfolding rapidly. It’s the nexus of devices, clouds, and
applications.”12
Many Internet and technology industry sites are already heralding devices, platforms, and
ideas for the coming “Internet of Things.” The ideas range from using technology to create
self-regulating farms that know how much water to request from a watering system, to
home appliances that talk to each other.13Another indicator of the eminent “Internet of
Things” are groups of companies getting together to create standards such as LogiTech,
KontrolTV, COIN, BASIS, and KEASE.14
Internet.Crime
The Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3), in partnership with the FBI and the National
White Collar Crime Center reported in 2012 that they received 314,246 complaints in 2011.
In 2000, they received 16,838. Although the complaints were down from 2009, the growing
trend of Internet crime is evident in the following graphic obtained from their report.15
12(Cisco,
2013)
2013)
14(Internet of Things Consortium, 2013)
15(IC3, 2012)
13(GigaOm,
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7. The types of crimes that the IC3 responds to vary in degree and severity, but it’s clear from
their report that people have lost money. In 2011, approximately $485M dollars was lost to
computer crime as reported to the IC3. These criminals target people through fraudulent
claims, identity theft, and even FBI impersonation. International crime is also on the rise.
Organizations such as FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigations, 2013), Department of
Homeland Security, and Interpol all have designated staff to deal with cybercrime.16 State
governments such as Massachusetts have also taken this issue seriously and have started to
educate their citizens.17
With more and more mobile devices, threats such as viruses and malware that used to
plague PC users are now spreading over to smart phones. Cisco reported that Android
malware grew 2577 percent in 2012. International cyber crime also includes spam that
originates from other countries. Spam is the major delivery vehicle for malicious content
that can damage hardware and software, as well as fraudulent claims. Many spam
messages include “spoofed” brands that consumers are likely to respond to save money. 18
Analysis
Experts have thought up several scenarios of
the future of the Internet, but none of them
deny the coming ubiquity. Whether it is a
porous garden, built with moats and bridges,
a network of boutique networks, or a
common pool that caters to all, all of them
have one idea front and center: the Internet
will be everywhere. 19
Erich Schmidt, the Chairman of Google, Inc.
projects similar thoughts about the Internet’s
ubiquity. He claims in his new book with
Jared Cohen “In the next decade, 5 billion new
16(Interpol,
2013)
17(Commonwealth
of Massachussetts, 2013)
2013)
19(Internet Society, 2009)
18(Cisco,
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8. people will join the Internet.”20Much of this growth will come from mobile devices because
they are affordable and portable in developing countries where physical infrastructure is
lacking.21
The internet statistics collected by Netcraft, ICANN, CAIDA, and various other organizations
and associations all point to the same thing: the Internet continues to grow in the number
of users and more and more of the users are using smaller and smaller devices such as
mobile phones and tablets.
Most businesses have already shifted their strategy to design applications and software for
mobile and table designs. Internet communities have created “Responsive” design patterns
to create user interfaces for the variety of devices that have cropped up in the last 10 or so
years. Pete Cashmore of Mashable says that 2013 is the year of responsive design because
we’re in the post-pc era and that tablet sales are going to hit 100M this year.22
Although most of the businesses aren’t yet playing with the “Internet of Things,” the best
consulting companies such as McKinsey are already publishing strategy papers on how to
understand and utilize for business agility. 23 They suggest that adopting the Internet of
Things into business models will eventually become a part of every day life. Sensors and
devices that are connected will be a part of a large ecosystem that includes the company’s
inventory as well as the production machinery.
The government is also trying to catch up to the growth of Internet crimes ranging from
Internet piracy, fraudulent transactions, and Internet privacy. Recently bills such as SOPA
have been shot down for being too controlling. CFSA is a draft bill that’s being developed to
fight the streaming of copyrighted information. Although no major acts have been passed,
the conversation is in the public sphere. When bills that may or may not restrict the
Internet are discussed in Congress or Senate, the Internet itself becomes a hotbed of debate
on the issue.24
The problem with current regulation attempts stems from the fact that most politicians
don’t understand what the Internet is about. Some think that the Internet is a series of
tubes, while others think that they invented it. Lobbying companies that want to exert
20(Schmidt
& Cohen, 2013)
2013)
22(Cashmore, 2012)
23(Chui, Löffler, & Roberts, 2010)
24(Albanesius, 2013)
21(WikiPedia,
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9. control or politicians that want to levy taxes to increase government revenue usually fill
the gap in knowledge.
Although the government helped create the Internet, it still hasn’t quite understood how to
use it to be more efficient. They have understood that it’s important, just not how
important. When Estonia fell to a full-scale cyber attack in 2007, the global community of
nations woke up and started to take cyber-security more seriously.25
Conclusion
The Internet is for People, first and foremost. It is an ecosystem that centers on People.
Cisco defines “People, Processes, Data, and Things” as the different elements that work
together on the Internet. All of are growing in numbers. Population growth (People) has
been a part of the modern world and as it goes from 7B to 8B, there will be more
institutions doing more work (Processes). As more Processes are executed, more Data will
be generated and simultaneously on more and more devices (Things).
Criminals are finding better ways to dupe users, steal information, and cause havoc in
people’s lives. Internet crime has become a part of the world’s problems. Government is
trying to catch up with new laws, new ways to police and fight Internet crime both
domestically and internationally.
The states that want to manage a freeand just Internet will have to find good reason to
enact laws that limit users. In countries with abridged, the Internet’s role in changing the
governmental structure can only be speculated. For liberal democracies, the Internet will
get worse with Internet crime before it gets better.
In the next 10 years, there will be a global “black-swan” event that will potentially impact
the whole Internet infrastructure or a segment. The Internet works cross several regions of
the world, through several software layers, and across several types of physical layers.
These layers and regions won’t protect us from the worst case scenario.
As the number of Internet devices and users grow, so will the number of people who don’t
know how to protect their information and secure their devices. Malicious hackers can
exploit these vulnerabilities. The Internet Census 2012 by Carna Botnet shows how
someone with enough skills can understand the traffic and nature of Internet usage
25(WikiPedia,
2013)
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10. without people or government’s permission. This “secret hacker internet census” is a scary
but true incident. A hacker exploited the Internet’s vulnerability over the course of a year
to write a research paper.26This hacker found that many of the devices aren’t protected
while others are protected with extremely weak passwords. He compromised 420,000
devices to monitor more than 460,000,000 devices and was able to get into networks even
behind the firewall of China.
It’s only a matter of time, that someone a group of people with the proper skills and
resources that they have acquired through illegal means will attempt to carry out largescale attacks to de-stabilize people’s lives, nations, and businesses. The world is getting
wise of the potential threat. Interpol has recently invested in an international “Global
Complex for Innovation” in Singapore with the help of Kaspersky Labs, a leader in antivirus research.27
As the Internet came out of the world of military research under the umbrella of DARPA, so
will Internet Security. There may be a divergence in strategies and tactics used by “police”
or “domestic security” forces such as FBI and Interpol will be different than those used by
“military” and “national security” forces. Policy makers will then need to catch up to create
26(Stöcker
& Horchert, 2013)
Labs, 2013)
27(Kaspersky
Future of the Internet
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11. laws that can control them for public good instead of public control. Because the
government is usually reactionary rather than proactive, policy changes for a free and just
Internet will take years after several relatively small incidents like Estonia and maybe a few
years after a black-swan event.
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