1. Chapter 8: Military Power and the Use of Force

2. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Elements of Power (1 of 3) Power: the factors that enable one state to coerce another Power potential: the relative capabilities of a state considered essential to asserting influence over others Military capability Military expenditures Relative size of economy 2

3. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning How U.S. Military Spending Stacks Up Against Its Primary Competitors 3

4. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Two Measures of Military Power Potential: State Wealth and Size of National Armies 4

5. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Elements of Power (2 of 3) Population size Territorial size Geographic position Raw materials Dependence on foreign raw materials Technological level and capacity National character 5

6. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Elements of Power (3 of 3) Ideology Efficiency of government decision making Industrial productivity Trade volume Savings and investment Education level National morals Internal solidarity 6

7. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning The Changing Character of World Power Decreased utility of military power Increased importance of technology, education, and economic growth Military spending: Opportunity costs Peace dividend Relative burden of military spending “Guns versus butter” 7

8. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Military Spending as a Percentage of GDP 8

9. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Defense versus Deterrence 9

10. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning The Security Dilemma Prisoner’s Dilemma 10 cooperate defect cooperate defect

11. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Weapons Trade Spurred by Cold War Peaked in 1987 at $82 billion Middle East and Asia are major recipients Middle East arms race: regional rivalries United States is leading supplier Balance-of-trade deficits Military-industrial complex Blowback 11

12. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Arms Deliveries to the Global North and the Global South, 1997–2004 12

13. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Weapons of Mass Destruction Shifts emphasis from defense to deterrence Began with the annihilation of Hiroshima and Nagasaki 13

14. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Chemical and Biological Weapons Growing threat Use by terrorists Prohibited by international law 14

15. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning WMD and Crisis Stability Kenneth Waltz argues that the proliferation of nuclear weapons will likely make the world more safe, not less. Assumes: Leaders are rational Civilian leaders have effective control over their militaries 15

16. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning High- and Low-Tech Weapons Precision guided munitions Improvised explosive device (IED) 16

17. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Arms Transfer Agreements Worldwide 17

18. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Nuclear Weapons in 2008 18

19. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Nuclear Weapons Nuclear proliferation is likely because the expertise is widespread, export controls are ineffective, and the materials needed are widely available Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty Nth country problem Horizontal nuclear proliferation Vertical nuclear proliferation Nuclear winter 19

20. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Nuclear-Weapon Armed Countries, Today and Tomorrow 20

21. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Technology and Weapons MIRVs: Multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles Firebreak Strategic weapons: Weapons of mass destruction on ICBMs, SLBMs, long-range bombers Nonlethal weapons: Incapacitate people, vehicles, communications systems Smart bombs Biological and chemical weapons 21

22. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Compellence 1945–1962 Compellence: When U.S. was dominant nuclear power Brinksmanship: John Foster Dulles threatened adversaries with nuclear war Massive retaliation Countervalue targeting: Soviet industry and population (as opposed to counterforce targeting of weapons) Arms race 22

23. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Nuclear Weapons and the Cold War Crisis Stability “The threat that leaves something to chance.” 23

24. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Deterrence 1962–1991 Cuban Missile Crisis Requires second-strike capability Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) Nuclear Utilization Theory (NUTs): advocated by some Americans; nuclear weapons could be used in a war Strategic Defense Initiative: President Reagan’s “Star Wars” 24

25. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Preemption 1991–Present Did nuclear weapons foster peace? The Bush Doctrine and preemptive strikes Preemptive war vs. Preventive war Preemptive war and just war theory Asymmetrical warfare 25

26. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Coercive Diplomacy “An approach to bargaining between states engaged in a crisis in which threats or the use of limited force are made to force an adversary to reach a compromise” Ultimatums Gunboat diplomacy Military intervention 26

27. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Military Intervention Overt or covert use of force by one or more states inside another state Covert operations: secret activities Can heighten tensions and lead to war Nonintervention norm Intervention can be for moral for humanitarian reasons Failed states 27

28. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning The Changing Incidents Through Unilateral Military Intervention for Coercive Diplomatic Purposes Since 1945 28

29. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Conditions that Favor the Effective Use of Coercive Diplomacy Clarity of user objectives. Asymmetry of motivation favoring the user. Opponent’s fear of escalation and belief in the urgency for compliance. Adequate domestic and international support for the user. Clarity on the precise terms of settlement. 29

30. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Web Links (1 of 2) Incore Institute for War and Peace Reporting International Crisis Group War, Peace, Security Guide Arms Sales Monitoring Project 30

31. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Web Links (2 of 2) Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists The Henry L. Stimson Center SIPRI Military Expenditure Country Graphs 31