2. Outline
1. Introduction
2.Climate Change in Lao PDR
Future climate scenario
The impact of climate change on crop production
3. Characterization of climate variability, water and soil nutrient
limiting crop yields
Quantifying seasonal field water availability
identify the appropriate time for start and end of the growing
season
identify the timing and severity level of water stress
Crop management recommendation
fertilizer recommendation rate for achieving yield targets
information on insects, pests and disease on rice growth stages
4. Climate risk management (agro-climate advisory)
Crop calendar
Monthly and Weekly Climate advisory report
4. +1 to 9% +15 to 17%
II-Climate change in Lao PDR
Baseline
(CO2=360ppm)
Average rainfall and change in the future (CCAM)
Scenario I (2040)
(CO2=540ppm)
Scenario II (2070)
(CO2=720ppm)
5. Average max. temperature and change in the future (CCAM)
- 1% +3 to 4%
Baseline
(CO2=360ppm)
Scenario I (2040)
(CO2=540ppm)
Scenario II (2070)
(CO2=720ppm)
6. - 1%
+4 to 9%
Average min. temperature and change in the future (CCAM)
Baseline
(CO2=360ppm)
Scenario I (2040)
(CO2=540ppm)
Scenario II (2070)
(CO2=720ppm)
7.
8. The impact of future climate scenario on crop production
estimated based on DSSAT model
1.0xCO2 1.5xCO2 2.0xCO2
Thavone (Rice)
• Savannaket
Vichien (Rice)
• Onset of rains, dry spills
• Salt and sand
Similar rice yields for dry,
median and wet years
Chitnucha (Rice)
• Chiang Rai (CR)
• Sakonnakorn (SK)
• Sa Kaew (SW)
Vinai (Cassava)
• Khon Kaen
Sukit (Sugarcane)
• Khon Kaen
Sahaschai (Maize)
• Khon Kaen
9. 1
2
3 actual
attainable
potential
Yield
increasing
measures
Yield protecting
measures
defining factors:
reducing
factors:
limiting
factors:
Climate
-rainfall
-Temperature
-radiation
-crop characteristics
•physiology, phenology
•canopy architecture
Water (flood, drought)
Soil nutrients
-nitrogen
-phosphorous
-potassium
Crop management
-Weeds, pests
diseases
1500 10,0005000 20,000 Production level (kg ha-1)
Source: World Food Production: Biophysical Factors of Agricultural Production, 1992.
III-Characterization of climate variability, water and soil
nutrient limiting on crop yields
10. Department of
Meteorology
and Hydrology
National
Agriculture and
Forestry Research
Institute
Weather Forecast Division
Agricultural
vulnerability
mapping
Agro
Climate
advisories
Water availability
Flood
Drought
Characterization of
climate information
Future climate
Scenario analysis
Cropping systems
resilience
SWB, SCOPIC, APSIM
Fertilizer
13. Start of growing
season
End of growing
season
-100.00
-50.00
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Weeks
mm
Rainfall Depth of standing water Field water storage
Soil water at FC Soil water at WP
StartLGP wk19 End LGP wk41
Flowering
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
-40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0
Ralative water level (cm)
Grainyieldreduction
(%)
Early
M edium
Late
Y=-1.68X ; r2 =0.80
Start LGP End LGP LGP Flowering date Wlrel(mm) %yield reduction
19 43 25 17-Sep -74.1 12
Estimation of Yield limited by water stress
15. Schematic diagram for quantifying field water availability and water
stress development based on lowland water balance model
Soil dataSoil data
ClayClay
%%
DownwardDownward
(D)(D)
Climate dataClimate data
RainfallRainfall ETcETc
FIELD WATER BALANCE MODEL:FIELD WATER BALANCE MODEL: W(t)W(t)= W(t= W(t--1)+RF(t)1)+RF(t)--ETc(t)ETc(t)––D(t)D(t)--R(t)R(t)
Determination of LGPDetermination of LGP
Daily free water levelDaily free water level
Estimation probability of drought occurrenceEstimation probability of drought occurrence
Sat, FC,Sat, FC,
WP, AirWP, Air
(Saxton & Rawls)(Saxton & Rawls)
••Point based (daily)Point based (daily)
••Gridded surfaceGridded surface
(weekly)(weekly)
16. Yield limited by soil nutrients (N, P, K), and fertilizer requirement
for achieving yield targets for rainfed lowland rice
Yield limited by soil nutrients (N, P, K), and fertilizer requirYield limited by soil nutrients (N, P, K), and fertilizer requirementement
for achieving yield targets for rainfed lowland ricefor achieving yield targets for rainfed lowland rice
Quantitative Evaluation of the Fertility of
Tropical Soils and site specific nutrient
requirement (Janssen et al., 1990; Witt et
al., 1999) were applied.
Step 1: The estimation of indigenous soil
nutrient supplies
Step 2: The actual uptake of a nutrient is
calculated as a function of the potential
supply of that nutrient, and the amount of
nutrient applied as fertilizer, taking fertilizer
recovery efficiency into account.
Step 3: Estimation of yield ranges for
actual nutrient uptake
Step 4: Combination of possible yield
ranges into one yield estimate
17. Results Weekly water stored in the field
week 28
(9-15 July 2010)
week 32
(6-12 Aug 2010)
week 40
(1-7 Oct 2010)
SGP EGP LGP
18. Yield target of 3 t/ha Yield target of 4 t/ha
Nitrogen fertilizer (kg/ha)
Phosphorus fertilizer (kg/ha)
20. Defining wet and dry seasons
Season Average total
May-Sep rainfall
Recent examples
Dry <1135mm 2009: 1056.9mm
2007: 1082.2mm
Average 1135-1325mm 2008: 1312.7mm
Wet >1325mm 2011*: 1380.8mm
2010: 1352.1mm
*May-Aug rainfall
21. To translate the probability forecast, seasonal
water availability, including flood and drought
occurrence, as well as, provide information on
appropriate techniques that can help farmers
minimize risk, achieving maximum productivity
and enhancing their livelihoods under seasonal
climate variation
IV-Climate Risk Management through
Development of Agro- Climate Advisory