A look at how telecom technology evolution has led to 4G networks, an analysis of potential of 4G for various stakeholders such as Telcos and Media Broadcasters especially in India and key challenges for deployment
3. 4G (LTE)- Index
Technology Evolution
LTE Architecture
Global LTE Ecosystem
Network rollouts
Devices
Indian Situation
Key Impact on Broadcast Sector Sector
3
4G User Profile
4. Mobile technologies have evolved from voice focused to
data focused with speeds reaching 170 Mbps with 4G
1G
• 1980
2G
• 1991
2.5G+
• 1999
3G
• 2001+
3.5G
• 2005
4G
• 2010
(not to scale)
170 Mbps
Theory
42 Mbps
21.1 Mbps
10-15 mbps
Realized
Downlink Speeds
5-8 Mbps
2Mbps
384 kbps
128 kbps
14.4 kbps
2-3 Mbps
384-400 kbps
100-130 kbps
20-50 kbps
Note: 5MHz
bandwidth
considered in
all cases
9.6 kbps
Analog
GSM, CDM
A
(Digital
introduced)
GPRS, EDGE
(interim
marketing
release)
WCDMA
(UMTS), CDMA 1x
EV-DO
(Reliable Video
experience)
HSDPA, HSUPA, HS
PA +
(Interim
marketing release)
LTE, WiMax
(speeds
comparable
to FBB)
Sources: 3GPP Alliance, UMTS Forum, Informa Telecoms & Media, Motorola, ZTE, Huawei, internal analysis
GSM: Global System for Mobile communications, TDMA: Time Division Multiple Access, GPRS: General Packet Radio Service, EDGE: Enhanced Data rates for GSM
Evolution, (W) CDMA: (Wideband) Code Division Multiple Access, EV-DO: Evolution Data-Optimized, HSDPA: High-Speed Downlink Packet Access, HSUPA: HighSpeed Uplink Packet Access, TD-SCDMA: Time Division Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access, LTE: Long Term Evolution, FBB: Fixed Broadband
4
5. 4G Architecture is optimized for fast speeds
LTE: Evolution from separate switching core sub-domains to one common IP
core facilitating faster access
Voice is also treated as data (Voice over Internet Protocol – VoIP)
VoIP can be VoLTE (nascent – for data only operators) or CSFB (falls back to
2G for voice)
Source: Ericsson
5
6. Strong demand is expected for these high
speed networks
10000
Mobile Subscriptions by technology (in mn)
LTE: 126 mn
on Q2,’13
8000
LTE
6000
WCDMA/HSPA
GSM/EDGE only
TD-SCDMA
4000
CDMA
Other
2000
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013E
2014P
2015P
2016P
2017P
2018P
LTE Technology is already commercial and maturing
quickly
LTE subscriptions projected to reach 2 billion by 2018
from 126 mn as on Q2 2013
Source: Ericsson, gsacom.com
6
7. Network operators worldwide have geared
up to meet expected user demand
First commercial LTE networks were launched by TeliaSonera in Norway and Sweden
in December 2009
213 commercially launched LTE networks and 406 commercial network commitments
in 81 countries
50 pre commitment trials in 9 more countries
7
8. TDD-LTE Deployments have started but lag
FDD deployments
8
Presently 21 commercial LTE TDD networks exist
Further 39 LTE TDD networks are either under trial
or planned
9. Over 1000 LTE Devices exist but are
primarily concentrated towards FDD mode
362
850 FDD LTE
Devices
322
265 265
247
231 230 229
142 128
Mobile
2300
Tablet
Module
5
16
3%
Femtocell
11%
1
1%
222 TDD
LTE
Devices
164
MHz TD LTE
Smartpho
ne
12
8%
147
104
49
49
13
Dongles
32
22%
Routers
incl
Hotspots
81
55%
Spectrum (MHz), Band
1064 LTE User devices have been announced from 111 manufacturers
2600 and 1800 MHz have the highest devices support
For 2300 MHz, 147 products in the market as on Aug, 2013
Lack of ecosystem may reduce attractiveness as handsets may not support international
roaming because of incompatible bands, duplex modes and frequencies in different countries
As on Aug, 2013; Source: gsacom.com
9
10. In India, Major data push is expected to
come from Reliance Jio, Bharti and Aircel
*
Metro
Delhi
Mumbai
Kolkata
Circle A
Maharashtra
Gujarat
Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Tamil Nadu/Chennai
Circle B
Kerala
Punjab
Haryana
Uttar Pradesh (East)
Uttar Pradest (West)
Rajasthan
Madhya Pradesh
West Bengal
Circle C
Himachal Pradesh
Bihar
Orissa
Assam
North East
Jammu & Kashmir
Standalone BWA Circles
Standalone 3G Circles
3G + BWA Circles
Circles with no 3G / BWA
Standalone BWA
22
NA
NA
-
2
12
1
7
Standalone 3G
9
13
13
9
3G + BWA
11
11
9
13
5
8
9
22
-
NA
NA
NA
22**
5
NA
NA
17
1
NA
NA
21
1800 MHz liberalized**
*Bharti has purchased Qualcomm’s BWA licenses in Delhi, Mumbai, Haryana and Kerala
**Videocon has won spectrum (1800 MHz) in six circles : Bihar, Gujarat, Haryana, MP, UP (E) & UP (W) in Nov, 2012 auction. As
the spectrum is liberalised, operators can use the airwave for any technology
Augere is trying to sell off its 4G spectrum in Madhya Pradesh – further consolidation expected as stated by Mr. Sibal
Source: DoT, GoI
10
11. 3G uptake has been slow in India
3G Active Subs (mn, Mar,13)
3G Site Coverage
30,000
45%
25,604
9.7
20,000
30%
17,481
3.3
11,659
5.1
31.7
10,000
19%
15%
16%
13%
6.4
0
7.2
0%
Airtel
RCOM
Bharti
Idea
Vodafone
Others*
Total*
Idea
3G Sites
RCom
% of total sites
Active 3G subs: ~32 mn out of 870 mn total subs on Q1, 2013
(3.5 % penetration)
Average 3G site coverage:16.5% for top 3 players in 3G
Source: mobiThinking, lughtreading.in, IDFC, internal analysis
11
*Others and Total approximated from
June 12 ratios of top 4 vs. others
12. Indian 4G scenario is nascent and suffers from lack of
ecosystem support
Duplex Mode: Time Division
FDD
Better Range
Lower
latency
TDD
Spectrum: 2300 MHz
2300
700
Requires less
spectrum
Faster
downlink
possible
More
developed
ecosystem
Higher signal
interference
No. of towers/
capex required
one third
Lower
coverage
Better device
compatibility
Globally most 4G devices are compatible with FDD
China Telecom recently announced $8bn tenders for TDD devices – ecosystem to develop
rapidly with RIL / Indian players using TDD
Auction for 700 MHZ spectrum going to be key for Indian 4G deployments as economics
improve dramatically
Content availability is low (recently TataSky announced LiveTV on mobile, Zee Anmol a FTA
GEC is also available on Mobile platform)
12
13. 4G handsets need to be priced optimally in
price sensitive Indian market
Indian 3G/4G* enabled Phones
13
100%
1
6
130
5
>40k
30k-40k
237
20k-30k
50%
115
10k-20k
192
6
Phone Sales in India (mn)
680
81
4
76
122
4
118
123
2
120
175
6
188
11
169
177
219
16
203
244
267
291
353
318
57
93
127
171
29
215
209
198
191
182
<10k
1
0%
4G
3G
Feature Phones
Smartphones
Total
*None of the 4G devices shown above presently support 2300 MHz TD-LTE
Only 13 devices supporting 4G (non 2300 MHz TD-LTE) vis-à-vis 680 supporting 3G; after unified
licensing scheme, these devices may eventually support networks for different operators
More than 90% of 4G devices are above 20k (all but 1) vis-à-vis 55% for 3G
Smartphones expected to rise from 12% in 2013 to 49% of new sales in 2017
Huawei (Ascend P1) and LG (Optimus G) and Karbonn have announced plans to launch devices soon
Operators such as RJIL, Bharti, Videocon, etc. are testing voice calling on 4G
Operators may overcome limited devices support via MiFi personal routers
Source: pricedealsindia.com compiled by comparing across online retailers, , IDC
13
14. 4G is changing user behaviour
65+
2%
55-64
7%
Who is the user?
(Age group)
Music & app
downloading
and
streaming
11%
Video
What is s/he doing? Downloading
, Uploading
& Streaming
26%
18-24
21%
45-54
16%
35-44
23%
Web
Browsing
& Email
40%
25-34
31%
File Sharing
and Storage
2%
More than half are in 18-34 years old
Avg 4G user is 5 yrs younger than 3G
customer
Almost even split between male and
female (58-42)
Source: EE H1 report from UK market
14
Social Media
13%
Video
Calling &
other
8%
26% of time spent is on video and ~55%
of all video watched is through Youtube
(~15% overall)
A quarter of 4G users spend three or
more hours on the mobile internet every
day – strong engagement
15. Broadcasters need to optimize their offering
to take advantage of 4G opportunity
Programming
• LTE opens up opportunity for VoD and Catchup TV on Mobile
Networks
• Broadcasters need to identify and evaluate different pricing
options for video units that may be most attractive for VoD
Multi-Screen
Support
• Videos need to be available in multiple screens–
mobile, tab, laptop, TV, etc.
Multi-Format
Support
• Push towards higher resolution (1080p, 4K and 3D) –for better
realization
Targeting
15
• Focus on youth programming (52% users 18-34 years old)