The document summarizes a presentation given by Asher Miller about the Transition Town movement. Miller tells a story about reindeer overpopulating a small island to illustrate how human population growth and consumption have exceeded the Earth's carrying capacity. He argues that societies must transition to more resilient, localized systems to cope with impending crises like peak oil and climate change. The Transition Town model aims to build communities that are self-sufficient through renewable energy and local food/goods, in order to withstand anticipated disruptions to globalized systems.
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The future is all about resilience
1. Say buh bye to
the status quo
the future is all about resilience
Asher Miller : Post Carbon Institute
Saturday, September 5, 2009
2. Saturday, September 5, 2009
Hi everyone. My name is Asher Miller. I’m the Executive Director of a nonprofit think tank
based here in Sonoma County called Post Carbon Institute, which is focused on the
convergence of economic, energy, and environmental crises. I’ve actually been asked here to
talk about the Transition Town movement, with which I’m also involved as a member of the
board of the US hub, Transition US.
But before I do any of that... <NEXT SLIDE>
3. Saturday, September 5, 2009
I want to tell you a little story about reindeer. <NEXT SLIDE>
4. St. Matthew Island
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• US coast guard set up outpost on SMI in 1944 /
• 29 reindeer brought as emergency food supplies
• left in ideal conditions a short while later when USCG abandoned island
• 1957, biologist David Klein went to see impact of reindeer
• He and assistant discovered something incredible
<NEXT SLIDE>
5. reindeer on St. Matthew Island
6,000
1,350
26 42
1940 1944 1957 1963 1964 1966 1980s
source: Journal of Wildlife Management
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• They counted 1350 reindeer, 46 times original number
• Came back six years later to discover 6,000 reindeer and a lot of destruction
• 3 years later they found only 42 left / only one male ... by 80’s all dead
• extreme example of overshoot ... when because of food/conditions populations grow and
grow...
<NEXT SLIDE>
6. Saturday, September 5, 2009
... and grow
• at risk of fear-mongering, think it’s instructive to look at human population growth
<NEXT SLIDE>
7. global population
6.7 billion
500 million
250 million
100 million
1K BCE 500 BCE 1 CE 500 CE 1K CE 1500 CE Now
source: wikipedia
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• in last 2500 years (tiny in course of human history), population grew 67 fold
• vast majority of growth in the last century
• on pace for 1 billion new people every 10 years
• key concept: the RATE seems low ... 2%/year at height... only 1.1% now
<NEXT SLIDE>
8. global population
6.7 billion
0 = 10
1,00
1 % of
500 million
250 million
100 million
1K BCE 500 BCE 1 CE 500 CE 1K CE 1500 CE Now
source: wikipedia
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• 1% of a number like 1,000 is relatively small
<NEXT SLIDE>
9. global population
6.7 billion
0 = 10
1,00
1 % of
1 billion = 10 million
1% of 500 million
250 million
100 million
1K BCE 500 BCE 1 CE 500 CE 1K CE 1500 CE Now
source: wikipedia
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• but 1% of 1 billion is ... well, a lot
• key concept: exponential growth
• not just true of population...
<NEXT SLIDE>
10. water withdrawal
*
1900 1950 1970 1990 2000 2025
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• seeing exponential growth in fresh water use...
<NEXT SLIDE>
12. water withdrawal marine fish catch
*
1900 1950 1970 1990 2000 2025 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007
world real GDP
1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• ... the growth of the world economy...
<NEXT SLIDE>
13. water withdrawal marine fish catch
*
1900 1950 1970 1990 2000 2025 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007
world real GDP carbon dioxide emissions
1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005 1750 1850 1920 1955 1975 1995
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• ... and carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere ...
• a pattern has clearly emerged ...
<NEXT SLIDE>
14. Saturday, September 5, 2009
... we’re on a run away train of our own making
<NEXT SLIDE>
15. Saturday, September 5, 2009
... back to our reindeer friends
• biologists estimate that the reindeer population on St. Matthew grew to 3-4 times the
population density of what the island could sustainably support
• key concept: carrying capacity
• so how are we doing?
<NEXT SLIDE>
16. how many planets do we need?
1.6 earths
um, anyone else worried about this?
1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008
source: Global Footprint Network
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• over the last 50 years scientists have been trying to answer this question
• using a range of data groups like Global Footprint Network have been tracking the capacity
of the earth to maintain us
• we’re well on our way to needing 2 planets
• no biggie right?
<NEXT SLIDE>
17. Saturday, September 5, 2009
• when the reindeer on SMI found themselves with no predators and yummy, yummy lichen
they must have thought they won the lottery
• but guess what, so have we
• what’s our food source?
<NEXT SLIDE>
18. photo by Sebastião Salgado
Saturday, September 5, 2009
•this stuff
<NEXT SLIDE>
19. d coal
d
oil
d
natural gas
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• well, actually this stuff... oil, coal, and natural gas
• hundreds of millions of years of compressed organic energy that we could easily dig up
and burn
<NEXT SLIDE>
20. Saturday, September 5, 2009
• why keep using this stuff when we could use...
<NEXT SLIDE>
21. Saturday, September 5, 2009
• this stuff!
• it’s estimated that 1 gallon of oil has the same energy as a person working full time, forty
hours a week, for 2 1/2 months
• even at record high prices last summer - $147/barrel - that’s still only $3.50
• for 10 weeks of labor, not one hour!
<NEXT SLIDE>
22. Saturday, September 5, 2009
• key concept: net energy for societies
• estimated that hunter/gathers & agrarian societies operated with a 10 to 1 EROEI
• for every 1 person involved in food or heat production, 10 others could do something else
• but oil, especially in the early days, had a 100 to 1 EROEI
• this led to unimaginable advances and innovation
<NEXT SLIDE>
23. Saturday, September 5, 2009
• and in the blink of a human eye, everything changed
<NEXT SLIDE>
24. US energy consumption
29,308 terawatts
nuclear
hydro
petroleum
natural gas
coal
biomass (wood)
1705 1755 1805 1855 1905 1955 2005
source: Energy Information Administration
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• our appetite for the stuff was simply insatiable ...
<NEXT SLIDE>
25. world energy sources
renewables
biomass coal
0.2%
hydro 10% 25%
2.2%
6.6%
nuclear
21%
35%
petroleum natural gas
source: British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• and still is... even more so then ever
<NEXT SLIDE>
26. Saturday, September 5, 2009
• in 1971, landmark Limits to Growth report
• first to use computer modeling to forecast impacts of growth
• attacked or ignored at the time
• report is now understood to be remarkably prophetic
<NEXT SLIDE>
27. d
d d
d
d
d d
d
d
d
d
d d
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• my belief & belief of colleagues at PCI is that we’ve run out of track
• convergence of a number of crises ... LIST THEM ...
• each would test us ... together they will completely reshape our world
<NEXT SLIDE>
28. Saturday, September 5, 2009
• ... lets pretend we could go back in time
• ... and if we could speak reindeerese... and you tried to warn those reindeer on SMI to slow
down, maybe not have so many kids, not eat so much of that lichen...
• do you think they’d have listened?
• do you blame us for not?
<NEXT SLIDE>
29. peak oil
climate change
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• originally, Transition Towns aimed to address two of these critical issues ... climate change
and peak oil
• not going to get into these in detail
• assume they already understand climate change and
• RH -- world’s foremost peak oil educator -- will be presenting to them in a few weeks /
will leave to him
• but want to say one thing that relates to both issues:
• we’re now looking in the rear view mirror
<NEXT SLIDE>
30. Saturday, September 5, 2009
• in terms of climate change, growing consensus that we need to go carbon negative in order
to avert catastrophe
<NEXT SLIDE>
31. carbon dioxide emissions
8 million metric tons from fossil fuels
li on
il
m
per
s
a rt
p
3 90
to
2 75
om
fr
e
ris
s
v el
le
2
CO
1750 1825 1900 1930 1955 1970 1985 2000
source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• currently at 390 ppm
• negotiations have largely focused on targets of 450 or 550 ppm
• at 450 ppm, Hansen and others say we have a 50-50 shot of tipping into hell
<NEXT SLIDE>
32. carbon dioxide emissions
8 million metric tons from fossil fuels
li on
il
m
per
s
pm
a rt
p
p 90
50
3
to
3 om
2 75
fr
e
ris
s
v el
le
2
CO
1750 1825 1900 1930 1955 1970 1985 2000
source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• Hansen now warning that we need to be at 350 ppm
• that’s BELOW current levels
• McKibben & 350.org on campaign to get this number adopted
• McKibben here on Oct. 2nd / Day of Action on Oct. 24th
<NEXT SLIDE>
33. Saturday, September 5, 2009
• In terms of peak oil, also a growing consensus that we’re looking in the rear view mirror
<NEXT SLIDE>
34. world oil production
81.8 million barrels a day
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Natural Gas
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• likely reached global peak oil production last summer
• leave it to RH to explain what this means
• of all the issues that have me worried, this keeps me up most at night
• into this fray comes a group of people like you and me trying to face these issues head on
... but with a twist
<NEXT SLIDE>
36. what is a Transition Town?
boundaries defined by residents
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• So what is a transition town?
• could be a small town, a neighborhood, a city, an island...
<NEXT SLIDE>
37. what is a Transition Town?
boundaries defined by residents
lives within ecological bounds
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• lives in balance with the ecosystem around it...
• renewable energy / food , etc.
<NEXT SLIDE>
38. what is a Transition Town?
boundaries defined by residents
lives within ecological bounds
has a re-localized economy
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• opposite of our current globalized economies
• food, energy, services/goods produced locally/regionally
<NEXT SLIDE>
39. what is a Transition Town?
boundaries defined by residents
lives within ecological bounds
has a re-localized economy
healthier & happier than before
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• Transition folks believe that our current way of life leads to high levels of dissatisfaction
and poor health
• opportunity to feel more connected / more reward for a day’s work , etc.
<NEXT SLIDE>
40. what is a Transition Town?
boundaries defined by residents
lives within ecological bounds
has a re-localized economy
healthier & happier than before
is resilient
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• it’s not about avoiding difficulty
• it’s about having the skills and flexibility to manage
• key concept: resilience
<NEXT SLIDE>
41. re·sil·ience:
an ability to recover from or adjust
easily to misfortune or change
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• key concept: resilience
• entering difficult & uncertain times
• need redundancy
• need new/old skills
• need a mentality
<NEXT SLIDE>
42. core beliefs
transition is inevitable
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• lives & communities are changing, whether we like it or not
• better to embrace than ignore or deny
<NEXT SLIDE>
43. core beliefs
transition is inevitable
need to act for ourselves
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• waiting for magic solutions -- technology -- or leadership from the federal government or
international community is a dangerous game
• the transition looks different in every community / responses need to come from within
<NEXT SLIDE>
44. core beliefs
transition is inevitable
need to act for ourselves
can’t go it alone
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• a human response is flight / self defense
• best individual preparation is working together
<NEXT SLIDE>
45. core beliefs
transition is inevitable
need to act for ourselves
can’t go it alone
requires an inner transition too
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• transition requires as much a cultural / psychological change as a physical one
<NEXT SLIDE>
46. core beliefs
transition is inevitable
need to act for ourselves
can’t go it alone
requires an inner transition too
our collective genius will guide us
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• each community and individual has the capacity to make this transition
• we need to harness that collective genius and creativity
<NEXT SLIDE>
47. photo: TED/James Duncan Davidson
Saturday, September 5, 2009
ORIGINS
• started by this guy - Rob Hopkins
• permaculture teacher at Kinsale College in Ireland
• worked with his students to try to answer the question: how do we transition this
community to be free from dependence on fossil fuels
<NEXT SLIDE>
48. Saturday, September 5, 2009
• developed a strategic process for “energy descent”
• Rob then moved to Totnes, England and carried the ideas with him
<NEXT SLIDE>
49. photo: flickr/Laurie Cate
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• in some ways, Totnes was the ideal community to start the Transition Town movement
• College town / very educated & motivated about sustainability
• had world renowned sustainability speakers coming to Shumaker College
• folks like Richard Heinberg were introduced to TT and helped spread the model to other
places they went
• RH almost single handedly spread TT to NZ
<NEXT SLIDE>
50. Saturday, September 5, 2009
• Rob then wrote the Transition Handbook
• great step-by-step introduction and guide for setting up a TT
• movement quickly spread
<NEXT SLIDE>
51. spread of Transition Towns
208 “official” initiatives
38 in US
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• less than 3 years later
• over 200 “official” towns / almost 40 in US
• hundreds of other “mullers”
<NEXT SLIDE>
52. why it works
hope & optimism
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• optimism is the key ingredient to it’s spread, IMHO
<NEXT SLIDE>
53. why it works
hope & optimism
a collective response
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• all about bringing people together
<NEXT SLIDE>
54. why it works
hope & optimism
a collective response
great tools & resources
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• the Transition Handbook, wiki, videos, trainings, etc.
<NEXT SLIDE>
55. why it works
hope & optimism
a collective response
great tools & resources
flexibility & openness
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• very loose model / no fixed expectations
• invites experimentation
<NEXT SLIDE>
56. why it works
hope & optimism
a collective response
great tools & resources
flexibility & openness
an end product
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• focus on the development of an Energy Descent Action Plan
<NEXT SLIDE>
57. why it works
hope & optimism
a collective response
great tools & resources
flexibility & openness
an end product
a step by step process
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• the 12 “steps”
<NEXT SLIDE>
58. Saturday, September 5, 2009
• the 12 “steps” or “ingredients” are a way of building momentum and laying the foundation
for growth of TT
<NEXT SLIDE>
59. 12 steps
#1: start an initiating group
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• starts with the formation of an initiating group THAT PLANS FOR ITS OWN DEMISE
<NEXT SLIDE>
60. 12 steps
#2: raise awareness
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• initial, and most important, focus is to raise awareness in the community
• film screenings, speakers, fun events...
<NEXT SLIDE>
61. 12 steps
#3: lay the foundations
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• reach out to people already working on elements of the transition
• not about reinventing the wheel but bringing people and knowledge together
<NEXT SLIDE>
62. 12 steps
#4: organize a “great unleashing”
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• “great unleashing” is the official kick-off event
• want to generate big buzz and excitement in the community
• make sure you don’t do it too soon
<NEXT SLIDE>
63. 12 steps
#5: form working groups
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• working groups focused on specific issues like energy, food, business, “heart & soul,” etc.
• develop plans and projects specifically in that area of focus
<NEXT SLIDE>
64. 12 steps
#6: use open space
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• generate ideas and buy in by hosting “open space” meetings
<NEXT SLIDE>
65. 12 steps
#7: develop visible projects
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• begin manifesting the work of Transition
• make it visible and tangible
• this is a community garden at the Capitol in Denver
<NEXT SLIDE>
66. 12 steps
#8: facilitate the “great reskilling”
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• we’re least generally skilled generations in human history
• need to move away from specialization to hands-on knowledge
• how to grow food / repair things / build , etc.
• this includes “green jobs”
<NEXT SLIDE>
67. 12 steps
#9: reach out to local government
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• engage local government & planners
• even if they ignore you at first, you want them to turn to TT when things go awry
<NEXT SLIDE>
68. 12 steps
#10: honor the elders
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• last 30 years in particular, a very comfortable / individualistic generation
• learn from elders who have gone through difficult times (Great Depression) and collective
action (WWII)
• have skills / memories of value
• conduct oral histories
<NEXT SLIDE>
69. 12 steps
#11: let it go where it wants
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• hold to core beliefs & vision but don’t hold to the journey
• impossible to know where / how events will lead us (back to concept of resilience)
<NEXT SLIDE>
70. 12 steps
#12: create an energy descent plan
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• develop an EDAP
• EDAP is really just the end of the beginning
• the real work begins when the plan is put into practice
<NEXT SLIDE>
71. cheerful disclaimer
Just in case you were under the impression that
Transition is a process defined by people who
have all the answers, you need to be aware of a
We truly don't know if this will work. Transition is a social
experiment on a massive scale.
What we are convinced of is this:
• if we wait for the governments, it'll be too little, too late
• if we act as individuals, it'll be too little
• but if we act as communities, it might just be enough, just
in time.
Saturday, September 5, 2009
• this is the thing I appreciate most about the Transition Town movement
<NEXT SLIDE>