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PETERSON-PEW COMMISSION ON BUDGET REFORM

CO-CHAIRS                             As Policymakers Search for the Right Fiscal Tool,
BILL FRENZEL
                                  Peterson-Pew Commission’s New Fiscal Toolbox Can Help
TIM PENNY
CHARLIE STENHOLM                                       June 8, 2011

COMMISSIONERS               In recent weeks, there has been significant talk about using targets, triggers,
BARRY ANDERSON
ROY ASH
                            caps, and failsafes in order to get our fiscal situation under control – in
CHARLES BOWSHER             particular as policymakers like those involved in the Biden fiscal talks
STEVE COLL                  search for ways to couple a debt limit increase with deficit reduction. There
DAN CRIPPEN
VIC FAZIO
                            are plenty of tools available to help fix our broken budget, but which
WILLIAM GRADISON            should we use? The new Fiscal Toolbox from the Peterson-Pew
WILLIAM GRAY, III           Commission on Budget Reform (PPC) offers guidance in choosing the right
WILLIAM HOAGLAND
DOUGLAS HOLTZ-EAKIN         instrument.
JIM JONES
LOU KERR
                            “We have lots of tools to choose from here – everything from spending
JIM KOLBE
JAMES MCINTYRE, JR.         limits to balanced budget rules to debt targets,” said CRFB President and
DAVID MINGE                 PPC Commissioner Maya MacGuineas. “As we look at these various tools
JIM NUSSLE
                            to control our debt, it's important we use the right ones.”
MARNE OBERNAUER, JR.
JUNE O’NEILL
RUDOLPH PENNER              The Peterson-Pew Commission, (www.budgetreform.org), comprised of a
PETER G. PETERSON
ROBERT REISCHAUER
                            bipartisan group of leading budget experts, has studied process tools like
ALICE RIVLIN                targets and triggers for over two years and recommended a suite of
CHARLES ROBB                reforms, including debt and savings targets to spur action, and spending
MARTIN SABO
GENE STEUERLE
                            caps to enforce a budget deal once it is in place. The Fiscal Toolbox is the
DAVID STOCKMAN              latest resource from the Peterson-Pew Commission, which compares the
PAUL VOLCKER                various mechanisms out there on a variety of measures.
CAROL COX WAIT
DAVID M. WALKER
JOSEPH WRIGHT, JR.          “No one knows the perfect process changes to control the debt, and every
                            option has advantages and disadvantages,” said MacGuineas. “What we
PRESIDENT
MAYA MACGUINEAS
                            need to do is take the best parts of each plan to design the tool that will best
                            help policymakers to bring the debt under control.”




               1899 L Street NW • Suite 400 • Washington, DC 20036 • Phone: 202-986-2700 • Fax: 202-986-3696 • www.crfb.org
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

        Targets, Triggers and Caps Comparison Grid
                     Peterson-Pew
                                                                           Fiscal Commission          President Obama                                             Corker-              Balanced Budget
                    Sustainable Debt         Peterson-Pew Caps                                                               Bipartisan Policy Center
                                                                           Debt Stabilization           Debt Failsafe                                           McCaskill CAP           Amendments
                          Act                  (Longer-Term)                                                                        SAVEGO
                                                                                 Process                   Trigger                                                  Act                 (S.J.Res. 10)*
                    (Medium-Term)
                   Stabilize the debt to
                                                                          Stabilize the debt-to-      Stabilize the debt                                         Limit federal      Eliminate the deficit and
     Goals         GDP ratio to 60% or     Limit drivers of the debt                                                          Save agreed upon amount
                                                                               GDP ratio                to GDP ratio                                               spending          limit federal spending
                          below

                                                                                                                                                                Limits spending     Balances the budget and
                                                                                                                             Sets annual savings targets
                   Sets annual savings     After a budget plan has         Uses rules to force         Ensures stable or                                           to 20.6% of      limits outlays to 18% of
                                                                                                                             for discretionary spending,
                    targets by statute     been put in place, limits        action if budget is        declining debt to                                        GDP by the end        GDP, beginning five
                                                                                                                                health care, and other
                   based on glide path      Social Security, health     projected to fall short of       GDP ratio in                                             of the decade         fiscal years after
                                                                                                                                 mandatory/revenue
  Description       intended to bring          spending, and tax           primary balance in           second half of                                          (GDP calculated            ratification
                                                                                                                             initially crafted to achieve
                   debt to 60% of GDP         expenditures to the        2015, or is projected to     decade (or average                                             based on
                                                                                                                                 a fiscal target (60%
                    by the end of the        amount that has been         (or found to) rise as a       deficit to GDP                                           average of the          (in addition, no
                                                                                                                                debt/GDP for BPC’s
                          decade                 budgeted for           share of GDP after 2015         ratio of 2.8%)                                           first 3 of the 4    legislation can increase
                                                                                                                                   illustrative plan)
                                                                                                                                                                 previous years)               taxes)

                                                                             Prohibition on
                                                                                                                                                                Across the board    3/5 majority requirement
                                                                          consideration of any                                    Sequestration for
                     Across the board                                                                                                                              spending            to increase the debt
                                                                            legislation that                                   discretionary spending,
 Enforcement         spending cuts and      Automatic adjustments                                      Across the board                                          sequestration                ceiling
                                                                            increases gross                                    automatic spending cuts
 Mechanism if        revenue increases      to Social Security, tax                                     cuts on selected
                                                                          spending or reduces                                 and revenue increases for
 Targets Not        (possibly including    expenditures, and health                                    spending and tax                                         2/3 vote point of     (Congress may enact
                                                                              gross taxes                                     health care and for other
   Reached            tax expenditure           care spending                                            expenditures                                           order preventing     additional enforcement
                                                                                                                                mandatory spending &
                        reductions)                                                                                                                             spending above              to ensure
                                                                          (Additional fail-safes                                       revenue
                                                                                                                                                                     the cap            implementation)
                                                                           can be considered)

                          None                                                                         Exempts Social
   Specified                                                                                                                                                                         Courts cannot require
                                                                                                      Security, Medicare
Exemptions from                                                                                                              Exempts Social Security if                              increase in revenue to
                    Adjustments cannot               None                         None                   benefits, and                                               None
 Enforcement                                                                                                                    scored as solvent                                   enforce balanced budget
                   exceed 1% of GDP in                                                                  means- tested
  Mechanism                                                                                                                                                                               requirement
                       a given year                                                                       programs

                                                                                                                                                                                      Majority vote allows
                                                                                                         Unspecified                                                  2/3
                                                                                                                                                                                     additional spending or
                                                                                                        mechanism to                                             supermajority
                   Triggers waived after                                  Process suspended if                                                                                       deficits during war and
                                                                                                      ensure trigger does                                         vote allows
                      two consecutive                                     nominal GDP grows                                                                                         by 3/5 vote for “serious
                                                                                                        not exacerbate                                          spending cap to
Specified Escape    quarters of negative                                 less than 1% or a joint                                                                                    military threat to national
                                                     None                                                  economic                      None                     be exceeded
    Valves         real GDP growth or a                                   resolution declares it                                                                                             security”
                                                                                                         downturn or
                     similar measure of                                   would exacerbate an
                                                                                                        interfere with                                            Emergency
                    economic weakness                                      economic downturn                                                                                         2/3 supermajority vote
                                                                                                       national security                                          spending is
                                                                                                                                                                                     allows any provision to
                                                                                                          emergency                                             exempt from cap
                                                                                                                                                                                           be waived




                                           1899 L STREET NW • SUITE 400 • W ASHINGTON, DC 20036 • PHONE : 202-986-2700 • FAX: 202-986-3696 •   WWW. CRFB. ORG
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget



                        Peterson-Pew
                                                                               Fiscal Commission          President Obama                                             Corker-          Balanced Budget
                       Sustainable Debt          Peterson-Pew Caps                                                               Bipartisan Policy Center
                                                                               Debt Stabilization           Debt Failsafe                                           McCaskill CAP       Amendments
                             Act                   (Longer-Term)                                                                        SAVEGO
                                                                                     Process                   Trigger                                                  Act             (S.J.Res. 10)*
                       (Medium-Term)
                         Debt/GDP and            Entitlement Spending           Deficit/GDP and             Debt/GDP and                                                                 Deficits and
What is Targeted?                                                                                                                  Debt/GDP and Savings             Spending/GDP
                           Savings               and Tax Expenditure              Debt/GDP                   Deficit/GDP                                                                Spending/GDP
 Is the Purpose to
  Force Action or      Force and Enforce                Enforce                      Enforce                     Force                      Force                       Force                Force
Enforce Decisions?
                         Temporary but
Is the Mechanism
                       replaced with new         Permanent until new                                                              Temporary until savings
  Temporary or                                                                      Permanent                 Temporary                                               Permanent            Permanent
                       targets once initial        budget enacted                                                                    goal is reached
    Permanent
                           goal is met
Does Enforcement
   Mechanism
Include Automatic
    Changes to                Both                       Both                        Neither                     Both                        Both                     Spending              Neither
     Revenue,
Spending, Both, or
     Neither?

     Are Tax
  Expenditures
                              Yes                         Yes                      Unspecified                    Yes                        Yes                         No                   No
Treated Similarly
  to Spending?

                                                                             Yes, a requirement for
                      Yes, opportunity for                                     both the President’s
                                                                                                                                                                                     Yes, a requirement that
                       Congress to revisit                                         Budget and
   Is Proposal                                                                                                                                                                      the President transmits a
                        policies, and the                                    Congressional Budget
Accompanied by a                                                                                                                                                                      budget which holds
                      President to exercise           Unspecified              Resolution include            Unspecified                      No                         No
    Process to                                                                                                                                                                         outlays at or below
                      enhanced rescission                                     proposals to stabilize
Facilitate Success?                                                                                                                                                                  revenue and below 18
                       authority, if targets                                the debt and a fast-track
                                                                                                                                                                                         percent of GDP
                           are not met                                       process for legislation
                                                                                   that does so

          * Numerous balanced budget amendments have been proposed in the current Congress. Used here as an example is S.J.Res. 10, which is co-sponsored by all 47
          Senate Republicans. For a more detailed list of balanced budget amendments and their provisions, go to http://crfb.org/blogs/scales-tip-among-senate-gop-
          balanced-budget-amendment.




                                               1899 L STREET NW • SUITE 400 • W ASHINGTON, DC 20036 • PHONE : 202-986-2700 • FAX: 202-986-3696 •   WWW. CRFB. ORG

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Fiscal toolbox

  • 1. PETERSON-PEW COMMISSION ON BUDGET REFORM CO-CHAIRS As Policymakers Search for the Right Fiscal Tool, BILL FRENZEL Peterson-Pew Commission’s New Fiscal Toolbox Can Help TIM PENNY CHARLIE STENHOLM June 8, 2011 COMMISSIONERS In recent weeks, there has been significant talk about using targets, triggers, BARRY ANDERSON ROY ASH caps, and failsafes in order to get our fiscal situation under control – in CHARLES BOWSHER particular as policymakers like those involved in the Biden fiscal talks STEVE COLL search for ways to couple a debt limit increase with deficit reduction. There DAN CRIPPEN VIC FAZIO are plenty of tools available to help fix our broken budget, but which WILLIAM GRADISON should we use? The new Fiscal Toolbox from the Peterson-Pew WILLIAM GRAY, III Commission on Budget Reform (PPC) offers guidance in choosing the right WILLIAM HOAGLAND DOUGLAS HOLTZ-EAKIN instrument. JIM JONES LOU KERR “We have lots of tools to choose from here – everything from spending JIM KOLBE JAMES MCINTYRE, JR. limits to balanced budget rules to debt targets,” said CRFB President and DAVID MINGE PPC Commissioner Maya MacGuineas. “As we look at these various tools JIM NUSSLE to control our debt, it's important we use the right ones.” MARNE OBERNAUER, JR. JUNE O’NEILL RUDOLPH PENNER The Peterson-Pew Commission, (www.budgetreform.org), comprised of a PETER G. PETERSON ROBERT REISCHAUER bipartisan group of leading budget experts, has studied process tools like ALICE RIVLIN targets and triggers for over two years and recommended a suite of CHARLES ROBB reforms, including debt and savings targets to spur action, and spending MARTIN SABO GENE STEUERLE caps to enforce a budget deal once it is in place. The Fiscal Toolbox is the DAVID STOCKMAN latest resource from the Peterson-Pew Commission, which compares the PAUL VOLCKER various mechanisms out there on a variety of measures. CAROL COX WAIT DAVID M. WALKER JOSEPH WRIGHT, JR. “No one knows the perfect process changes to control the debt, and every option has advantages and disadvantages,” said MacGuineas. “What we PRESIDENT MAYA MACGUINEAS need to do is take the best parts of each plan to design the tool that will best help policymakers to bring the debt under control.” 1899 L Street NW • Suite 400 • Washington, DC 20036 • Phone: 202-986-2700 • Fax: 202-986-3696 • www.crfb.org
  • 2. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget Targets, Triggers and Caps Comparison Grid Peterson-Pew Fiscal Commission President Obama Corker- Balanced Budget Sustainable Debt Peterson-Pew Caps Bipartisan Policy Center Debt Stabilization Debt Failsafe McCaskill CAP Amendments Act (Longer-Term) SAVEGO Process Trigger Act (S.J.Res. 10)* (Medium-Term) Stabilize the debt to Stabilize the debt-to- Stabilize the debt Limit federal Eliminate the deficit and Goals GDP ratio to 60% or Limit drivers of the debt Save agreed upon amount GDP ratio to GDP ratio spending limit federal spending below Limits spending Balances the budget and Sets annual savings targets Sets annual savings After a budget plan has Uses rules to force Ensures stable or to 20.6% of limits outlays to 18% of for discretionary spending, targets by statute been put in place, limits action if budget is declining debt to GDP by the end GDP, beginning five health care, and other based on glide path Social Security, health projected to fall short of GDP ratio in of the decade fiscal years after mandatory/revenue Description intended to bring spending, and tax primary balance in second half of (GDP calculated ratification initially crafted to achieve debt to 60% of GDP expenditures to the 2015, or is projected to decade (or average based on a fiscal target (60% by the end of the amount that has been (or found to) rise as a deficit to GDP average of the (in addition, no debt/GDP for BPC’s decade budgeted for share of GDP after 2015 ratio of 2.8%) first 3 of the 4 legislation can increase illustrative plan) previous years) taxes) Prohibition on Across the board 3/5 majority requirement consideration of any Sequestration for Across the board spending to increase the debt legislation that discretionary spending, Enforcement spending cuts and Automatic adjustments Across the board sequestration ceiling increases gross automatic spending cuts Mechanism if revenue increases to Social Security, tax cuts on selected spending or reduces and revenue increases for Targets Not (possibly including expenditures, and health spending and tax 2/3 vote point of (Congress may enact gross taxes health care and for other Reached tax expenditure care spending expenditures order preventing additional enforcement mandatory spending & reductions) spending above to ensure (Additional fail-safes revenue the cap implementation) can be considered) None Exempts Social Specified Courts cannot require Security, Medicare Exemptions from Exempts Social Security if increase in revenue to Adjustments cannot None None benefits, and None Enforcement scored as solvent enforce balanced budget exceed 1% of GDP in means- tested Mechanism requirement a given year programs Majority vote allows Unspecified 2/3 additional spending or mechanism to supermajority Triggers waived after Process suspended if deficits during war and ensure trigger does vote allows two consecutive nominal GDP grows by 3/5 vote for “serious not exacerbate spending cap to Specified Escape quarters of negative less than 1% or a joint military threat to national None economic None be exceeded Valves real GDP growth or a resolution declares it security” downturn or similar measure of would exacerbate an interfere with Emergency economic weakness economic downturn 2/3 supermajority vote national security spending is allows any provision to emergency exempt from cap be waived 1899 L STREET NW • SUITE 400 • W ASHINGTON, DC 20036 • PHONE : 202-986-2700 • FAX: 202-986-3696 • WWW. CRFB. ORG
  • 3. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget Peterson-Pew Fiscal Commission President Obama Corker- Balanced Budget Sustainable Debt Peterson-Pew Caps Bipartisan Policy Center Debt Stabilization Debt Failsafe McCaskill CAP Amendments Act (Longer-Term) SAVEGO Process Trigger Act (S.J.Res. 10)* (Medium-Term) Debt/GDP and Entitlement Spending Deficit/GDP and Debt/GDP and Deficits and What is Targeted? Debt/GDP and Savings Spending/GDP Savings and Tax Expenditure Debt/GDP Deficit/GDP Spending/GDP Is the Purpose to Force Action or Force and Enforce Enforce Enforce Force Force Force Force Enforce Decisions? Temporary but Is the Mechanism replaced with new Permanent until new Temporary until savings Temporary or Permanent Temporary Permanent Permanent targets once initial budget enacted goal is reached Permanent goal is met Does Enforcement Mechanism Include Automatic Changes to Both Both Neither Both Both Spending Neither Revenue, Spending, Both, or Neither? Are Tax Expenditures Yes Yes Unspecified Yes Yes No No Treated Similarly to Spending? Yes, a requirement for Yes, opportunity for both the President’s Yes, a requirement that Congress to revisit Budget and Is Proposal the President transmits a policies, and the Congressional Budget Accompanied by a budget which holds President to exercise Unspecified Resolution include Unspecified No No Process to outlays at or below enhanced rescission proposals to stabilize Facilitate Success? revenue and below 18 authority, if targets the debt and a fast-track percent of GDP are not met process for legislation that does so * Numerous balanced budget amendments have been proposed in the current Congress. Used here as an example is S.J.Res. 10, which is co-sponsored by all 47 Senate Republicans. For a more detailed list of balanced budget amendments and their provisions, go to http://crfb.org/blogs/scales-tip-among-senate-gop- balanced-budget-amendment. 1899 L STREET NW • SUITE 400 • W ASHINGTON, DC 20036 • PHONE : 202-986-2700 • FAX: 202-986-3696 • WWW. CRFB. ORG