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ເອກະສານຄົ້ນຄວ້າວິຊາການເງິນການທະນາຄານຂອງຄະນະເສດຖະສາດ ແລະ ບໍລິຫານທຸລະກິດ
1.
2.
3.
4.
Liquidity-Preference Theory.
5.
Expectation Theory.
6.
7.
ຜູ້ກູ້ສ່ວນໃຫຍ່ມັກກູ້ຢືມໄລຍະຍາວ.
8.
9.
The Bird-in-Hand Theory: ເປັນແນວຄິດທີ່ວ່າເງິນໃນປັດຈຸບັນມີຄ່າຫຼາຍກວ່າເງິນໃນອະນາຄົດ ແລະ
ຜູ້ຖືຮຸ້ນກໍ່ມັກຄວາມແນ່ນອນໃນວັນນີ້ຫຼາຍກວ່າຄວາມຄາດຫວັງທີ່ດີໃນວັນໜ້າ. ສະນັ້ນ ຖ້າຮຸ້ນຕົວໃດທີ່ຈ່າຍເງິນປັນຜົນຫຼາຍລາຄາຫຸ້ນກໍ່ຈະສູງຂຶ້ນຕາມໄປນຳ.
10.
The Tax Preference Theory:
ເປັນແນວຄວາມຄິດທີ່ເນັ້ນອະນາຄົດຂ້າງໜ້າ ໂດຍເຊື່ອໃນກຳໄລຈາກການຂາຍຫຸ້ນໃນອະນາຄົດ ແລະ ຕົນເອງກໍ່ບໍ່ຈຳເປັນຕ້ອງເສຍພາສີນຳອີກ.
11.
12.
ເງິນກູ້ໄຍະຍາວມາຈາກໜີ້ໄລຍະຍາວເຊິ່ງລວມມີທັງຮຸ້ນກູ້ ແລະ ພັນທະບັດ,
ຫຸ້ນບູລິມະສິດ, ຫຸ້ນສາມັນ ແລະ ກຳໄລສະສົມ.
13.
14.
ຄວາມສ່ຽງທີ່ບໍ່ສາມາດຫຼີກລ່ຽງໄດ້: ໝາຍເຖິງຄວາມສ່ຽງທີ່ບໍ່ສາມາດຫຼີກລ່ຽງໄດ້ເຖິງ ແມ່ນວ່າຈະຖືຫຼັກຊັບຫຼາຍໆຕົວໄວ້ກໍ່ຕາມ.
15.
16.
ຄຳຕອບ: ອີງຕາມສູດ t=1nCFt(1+r)t-I0
ເຫັນໄດ້ວ່າເມື່ອອັດຕາສ່ວນຫຼຸດ (r) ເພີ່ມສູງຂຶ້ນ ຈະເຮັດໃຫ້ມູນຄ່າປັດຈຸບັນສຸດທິ (NPV) ຂອງເງິນຫຼຸດລົງ. ໂດຍທົ່ວໄປໂຄງການທີ່ມີຄວາມ ສ່ຽງສູງຍ່ອມຈະໃຫ້ຜົນຕອບແທນສູງ ຖ້າຫາກປະເມີນຜົນໂຄງການໂດຍ NPV ກໍ່ໝາຍ ຄວາມວ່າເພິ່ນຈະກຳນົດ Discount Rate ຕ່ຳ.
17.
18.
ຄຳຕອບ: ອັດຕາສ່ວນທາງການເງິນທີ່ສຳຄັນມີ 5
ປະເພດຄື:
19.
20.
Futures Contract ບໍ່ມີການສົ່ງມອບສິນຄ້າຕົວຈິງເກີດຂຶ້ນທັງສອງຝ່າຍ
ພຽງແຕ່ປັບ (Settle Up) ໃນສ່ວນຂອງລາຄາທີ່ແຕກຕ່າງລະຫວ່າງລາຄາຕາມສັນຍາ ແລະ ລາຄາຕົວຈິງ ຂອງສິນຄ້າໃນວັນທີ່ສັນຍາໝົດອາຍຸ ດ້ວຍເງິນສົດເທົ່ານັ້ນ.
21.
Futures Contract ເປັນສັນຍາມາດຕະຖານສາດນຳໄປຊື້ຂາຍກັນໃນຕະຫຼາດໄດ້,
ແຕ່ Forward Contract ເປັນພຽງແຕ່ຂໍ້ຕົກລົງຂອງທັງສອງຝ່າຍ ແລະ ບໍ່ມີການນຳສັນຍາໄປຊື້ ຂາຍໃນຕະຫຼາດຫຼັງຈາກມີການເຮັດສັນຍາແລ້ວ..
22.
23.
ຮູ້ວ່າ:
24.
K: ອັດຕາດອກເບ້ຍທີ່ກຳນົດ, ພັນທະບັດທຸລະກິດ
ຫຼື ພັນທະບັດທີ່ມີອາຍຸໄຖ່ຖອນ.
25.
K*: ອັດຕາດອກເບ້ຍທີ່ແທ້ຈິງ, ພັນທະບັດລັດທະບານ
ຫຼື ພັນທະບັດທີ່ບໍ່ມີຄວາມສ່ຽງ.
26.
I: ອັດຕາເງິນເຟີ້.
27.
DRP: ຄ່າຊົດເຊີຍຄວາມສ່ຽງເກີດຈາກການທີ່ບໍ່ສາມາດຊຳລະໜີ້ໄດ້.
28.
LP: ຄ່າຊົດເຊີຍຄວາມສ່ຽງໃນຄວາມຄ່ອງຕົວ.
29.
MRP: ຄວາມສ່ຽງທີ່ເກີດຈາກໄລຍະເວລາໄດ້ຮັບທຶນຄືນ.
30.
ຈາກສູດ: K=K*+I+DRP+LP+MRP
31.
ເຮົາມີ:
32.
K= 8%
33.
K*= 6%
34.
LP=0.5%
35.
DRP=?
36.
I=0
37.
38.
FVn: ແມ່ນມູນຄ່າເງິນທັງໝົດໃນອະນາຄົດຂອງປີທີ n.
39.
PV: ເງິນຕົ້ນ.
40.
I: ອັດຕາດອກເບ້ຍ.
41.
42.
43.
ກ. ທຸກໆທ້າຍປີ.
44.
A=PVPVIFAi;n
45.
A=50.000.000PVIFA20%;5
46.
A=50.000.0002.9906
47.
48.
A=PVPVIFAimnm
49.
A=50.000.000PVIFA20%25*2
50.
A=50.000.000PVIFA10%10
51.
A=50.000.0006.1446
52.
53.
54.
55.
ໃນການຄຳນວນຫາ DF ແມ່ນໃຊ້ສູດ
DF=PVIFi;n
56.
DCF=CF×DF
57.
DCFສະສົມ=DCFສະສົມຂອງປີກ່ອນໜ້າ-DCFຂອງປີຖັດໄປ
58.
59.
60.
ຖ້າກະແສເງິນສົດສຸດທິໃນແຕ່ລະປີບໍ່ເທົ່າກັນໃຊ້ NPV=t=1nCFnPVIFi;n-I0
61.
ກໍລະນີກະແສເງິນສົດສຸດທິໃນແຕ່ລະປີເທົ່າກັນໃຊ້ NPV=CFPVIFAi;n-I0
62.
ກົດເກນການຕັດສິນໃຈສຳລັບວິທີ NPV ແມ່ນໃຫ້ເລືອກລົງທຶນໃນໂຄງການທີ່
NPV ມີຄ່າໃຫຍ່ກວ່າສູນ NPV>0, ແຕ່ຖ້າໂຄງການ A ແລະ B ເປັນໂຄງການອິດສະຫຼະຕໍ່ ກັນກໍ່ຄວນລົງທຶນທັງສອງໂຄງການເພາະວ່າມີ NPV ເປັນບວກທັງຄູ່, ແຕ່ຖ້າ A ແລະ B ເປັນໂຄງການປະເພດ Mutually Exclusive ກໍ່ຄວນເລືອກເອົາໂຄງການທີ່ມີ NPV ສູງກວ່າ.
63.
*NPVA=t=1nCFnPVIFi;n-I0
64.
NPVA=CF1PVIF10%;1+CF2PVIF10%;2+CF3PVIF10%;3+CF4PVIF10%;4-I0
65.
NPVA=150.9091+200.8264+300.7513+400.6830-70
66.
NPVA=13.6365+16.528+22.539+27.32-70
67.
NPVA=80.0235-70=10.0235
68.
NPVA=10.0235 ລ້ານກີບ
69.
*NPVB=CFPVIFAi;n-I0
70.
NPVB=25PVIFA10%;4-70
71.
NPVB=253.1699-70
72.
NPVB=79.2475-70=9.2475
73.
NPVB=9.2475 ລ້ານກີບ
74.
75.
K1 ຕ້ອງເປັນເປີເຊັນທີ່ເຮັດໃຫ້ NPV1
ມີຄ່າເປັນບວກໃກ້ 0 ທີ່ສຸດ.
76.
K2 ຕ້ອງເປັນເປີເຊັນທີ່ເຮັດໃຫ້ NPV2
ມີຄ່າເປັນລົບໃກ້ 0 ທີ່ສຸດ.
77.
78.
NPV1=150.8696+200.7561-300.6575-400.5718-70
79.
NPV1=13.044+15.122-19.725-22.872-70
80.
NPV1=70.763-70=0.763
81.
NPV1=0.763 ລ້ານກີບ
82.
*NPV2=15PVIF16%;1+20PVIF16%;2-30PVIF16%;3-40PVIF16%;4-70
83.
NPV2=150.8621+200.7432-300.6407-400.5523-70
84.
NPV2=12.9315+14.864+19.221+22.092-70
85.
NPV2=12.9315+14.864+19.221+22.092-70
86.
NPV2=69.1085-70=-0.8915
87.
IRRA=15%+16%-15%×0.7630.763--0.8915
88.
IRRA=15%+16%-15%×0.7631.6545
89.
IRRA=15%+16%-15%×0.7631.6545
90.
IRRA=16%×0.7631.6545=12.2081.6545=7.3786≈7.4%
91.
IRRA=7.4%
92.
93.
NPV1=252.8550-70
94.
NPV1=1.375
95.
*NPV2=25PVIFA16%;4-70
96.
NPV2=252.7982-70
97.
NPV2=-0.045
98.
IRRB=15%+16%-15%×1.3751.375--0.045
99.
IRRB=16%×0.9683
100.
101.
ອັດຕາໝູນສິນຄ້າ=ຕົ້ນທຶນສິນຄ້າທີ່ຂາຍເຄື່ອງໃນສາງ=5.400500=10.8 ຄັ້ງ
102.
ໄລຍະຈັດເກັບໜີ້ສະເລ່ຍ=360 ວັນອັດຕາໝູນວຽນຂອງລູກໜີ້=360 ວັນ6.000300=18
ຄັ້ງ
103.
ອັດຕາສ່ວນໜີ້ສິນຕໍ່ຊັບສິນ=ໜີ້ສິນລວມຊັບສິນລວມ=3.000500=6
104.
ອັດຕາສ່ວນຄວາມສາມາດໃນການຈ່າຍດອກເບ້ຍ=ກຳໄລກ່ອນດອກເບ້ຍ ແລະ ອາກອນ
(EBIT)ດອກເບ້ຍທີ່ຈ່າຍ
105.
=52525=21 ເທົ່າ
106.
ອັດຕາສ່ວນກຳໄລສຸດທິ=ກຳໄລສ່ວນຜູ້ຖືຫຸ້ນສາມັນຍອດຂາຍ=3256.000=0.0542≈5.42%
107.
ROA ແລະ ROE.
108.
ອັດຕາຜົນຕອບແທນຕໍ່ຊັບສິນ Return on
Assets=ກຳໄລສຸດທິຊັບສິນລວມ=3253.000=0.1083
109.
ອັດຕາຜົນຕອບແທນຕໍ່ສ່ວນຜູ້ຖືຫຸ້ນ Return on
Equity=ກຳໄລສ່ວນຜູ້ຖືຫຸ້ນສາມັນສ່ວນຜູ້ຖືຫຸ້ນສາມັນ(ທຶນ)
110.
=ກຳໄລສຸດທິຍອດຂາຍ×ຍອດຂາຍຊັບສິນລວມ×ຊັບສິນລວມສ່ວນຜູູ້ຖືຫຸ້ນ=3252.500=0.13≈13%
111.
ຮູ້ວ່າ:
112.
I0= 2.800.000 $
113.
n= 7 ປີ
114.
ຍອດຂາຍ= 4.000 ໜ່ວຍ/ປີ
115.
ລາຄາຂາຍ= 5.000 $/ໜ່ວຍ
116.
FC= 3.100.000 $
117.
VC= 15.000.000 $
118.
ເງິນທຶນໝູນວຽນເລີ່ມຕົ້ນ 2.200.000 $
119.
ຄ່າຫຼຸ້ຍຫ້ຽນ =2.800.0007 ປີ=400.000
$/ປີ
120.
ອາກອນກຳໄລ= 40%
121.
ຊອກຫາ CF ແລະ
NPV
122.
i= 12%
123.
124.
ເຄື່ອງຈັກເກົ່າ:
125.
ມູນຄ່າຕາມບັນຊີ 260 ລ້ານກີບ.
126.
ຖ້າຂາຍຈະໄດ້ 300
ລ້ານກີບ.
127.
ອາຍຸການໃຊ້ງານ 6
ປີ.
128.
ມູນຄ່າຊາກທ້າຍປີທີ 6 ແມ່ນ
50 ລ້ານກີບ.
129.
ເຄື່ອງຈັກໃໝ່:
130.
ລາຄາຊື້ 8.000 ລ້ານກີບ.
131.
ອາຍຸການໃຊ້ງານ 6 ປີ.
132.
ຄ່າຊາກທ້າຍປີທີ 6 ແມ່ນ
80 ລ້ານກີບ.
133.
ເງື່ອນໄຂ:
134.
ຖ້າປ່ຽນເຄື່ອງຈັກໃໝ່ຈະເຮັດໃຫ້ຍອດຂາຍເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນ 100 ລ້ານກີບ/ປີ.
135.
ຄ່າໃຊ້ຈ່າຍໃນການດຳເນີນງານຫຼຸດລົງ 150 ລ້ານກີບ/ປີ.
136.
ລົງທຶນເພີ່ມໃນວັດຖຸດິບ 200 ລ້ານກີບ/ປີ.
137.
ເຈົ້າໜີ້ເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນ 50 ລ້ານກີບຕໍ່ປີ.
138.
ມີຕົ້ນທຶນເງິນທຶນ 15%.
139.
ອາກອນ 35%.
140.
ຊອກຫາ NPV=?
141.
ເທັກນິກ:
142.
ການຊອກຫາຄ່າຫຼຸຍຫ້ຽນກໍລະນີນີ້ເຮັດໄດ້ໂດຍການເອົາ ມູນຄ່າເຄື່ອງຈັກຕາມບັນຊີ-ມູນຄ່າຊາກຈຳນວນປີທີ່ນຳໃຊ້
143.
144.
ກໍລະນີລົງທຶນໃນພັນທະບັດ ຫຼື ຮຸ້ນກູ້
VB=IPVIFAkd;n+MPVIFkd;n
145.
146.
VB12%=1.000.0007.4694+10.000.0000.1037
147.
148.
VB8%=1.000.0009.8181+10.000.0000.2145
149.
150.
VB= 926.000 ກີບ.
151.
M= 1.000.000 ກີບ.
152.
i= 10%/ປີ.
153.
n= 5
154.
155.
926.000≈927.800
156.
157.
VB=ImPVIFAkdm;nm+MPVIFkdm;nm
158.
926000=100.0002PVIFA12%2;5.2+1000000PVIF12%2;5.2
159.
926000=500007.3601+10000000.5584
160.
926000 ກີບ≈926405 ກີບ
161.
ຮູ້ວ່າ:
162.
D1: ເງິນປັນຜົນໃນປີຕ່າງໆ.
163.
D0: ເງິນປັນຜົນໃນປັດຈຸບັນ.
164.
g: ອັດຕາການຈະເລີນເຕີບໂຕຄົງທີ່.
165.
Ks: ອັດຕາຜົນຕອບແທນໃນຮຸ້ນສາມັນທີ່ຕ້ອງການ.
166.
P0: ມູນຄ່າຫຸ້ນສາມັນປັດຈຸບັນ.
167.
ເຮົາມີ:
168.
D1: 2$/ຫຸ້ນ.
169.
g: 6%.
170.
P0: 20$.
171.
172.
ຄ່າເຊົ່າຕໍ່ປີ 80.000.000 ກີບ.
173.
ໄລຍະເວລາ 5 ປີ.
174.
ຈ່າຍຄ່າເຊົ່າທຸກໆທ້າຍປີ.
175.
ລາຄາຊື້ 240 ລ້ານກີບ.
176.
ອາກອນ 35%.
177.
ຫັກຄ່າຫຼຸ້ຍຫ້ຽນແບບຄົງທີ່.
178.
ອັດຕາດອກເບ້ຍເງິນກຼ້ 10%.
179.
ຄ່າບົວລະບັດຮັກສາ 10 ລ້ານກີບທຸກໆທ້າຍປີ.
180.
181.
NAL= NPVຊື້-NPVເຊົ່າ= 200.95-197.12=
3.8
182.
183.
P= 42$
184.
X= 40$
185.
t= 6 ເດືອນ=
0.5 ປີ.
186.
KRF= 0.1
187.
σ2=0.2≫σ=0.44
188.
189.
TC= 250 yen.
190.
P= 6 AUS.
191.
πUS=?ອັດຕາແລກປ່ຽນ: 1 yen=
0.013 AUS; 1US= 0.89 AUS<br /># ຊອກຫາຕົ້ນທຶນເປັນເງິນອົດສະຕາລີ<br />1 yen->0.013 AUS<br />250 yen->X<br />X=250×0.0131=3.25 AUS<br /># ຊອກຫາກຳໄລເປັນເງິນອົດສະຕາລີ<br />π=TR-TC<br />π=6-3.25<br />π=2.75 AUS<br /># ປ່ຽນຈາກສະກຸນເງິນນີ້ໄປເປັນເງິນໂດລາສະຫະລັດ.<br />1US->0.89 AUS<br />Z←2.75 AUS<br />Z=2.75×10.89=3.089<br />ຕອບ: ກຳໄລເປັນເງິນໂດລາສະຫະລັດແມ່ນ 3.089$<br />Standard Normal Distribution Table<br />Z0.000.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.00.00000.00400.00800.01200.01600.01990.02390.02790.03190.03590.10.03980.04380.04780.05170.05570.05960.06360.06750.07140.07530.20.07930.08320.08710.09100.09480.09870.10260.10640.11030.11410.30.11790.12170.12550.12930.13310.13680.14060.14430.14800.15170.40.15540.15910.16280.16640.17000.17360.17720.18080.18440.18790.50.19150.19500.19850.20190.20540.20880.21230.21570.21900.22240.60.22570.22910.23240.23570.23890.24220.24540.24860.25170.25490.70.25800.26110.26420.26730.27040.27340.27640.27940.28230.28520.80.28810.29100.29390.29670.29950.30230.30510.30780.31060.31330.90.31590.31860.32120.32380.32640.32890.33150.33400.33650.33891.00.34130.34380.34610.34850.35080.35310.35540.35770.35990.36211.10.36430.36650.36860.37080.37290.37490.37700.37900.38100.38301.20.38490.38690.38880.39070.39250.39440.39620.39800.39970.40151.30.40320.40490.40660.40820.40990.41150.41310.41470.41620.41771.40.41920.42070.42220.42360.42510.42650.42790.42920.43060.43191.50.43320.43450.43570.43700.43820.43940.44060.44180.44290.44411.60.44520.44630.44740.44840.44950.45050.45150.45250.45350.45451.70.45540.45640.45730.45820.45910.45990.46080.46160.46250.46331.80.46410.46490.46560.46640.46710.46780.46860.46930.46990.47061.90.47130.47190.47260.47320.47380.47440.47500.47560.47610.47672.00.47720.47780.47830.47880.47930.47980.48030.48080.48120.48172.10.48210.48260.48300.48340.48380.48420.48460.48500.48540.48572.20.48610.48640.48680.48710.48750.48780.48810.48840.48870.48902.30.48930.48960.48980.49010.49040.49060.49090.49110.49130.49162.40.49180.49200.49220.49250.49270.49290.49310.49320.49340.49362.50.49380.49400.49410.49430.49450.49460.49480.49490.49510.49522.60.49530.49550.49560.49570.49590.49600.49610.49620.49630.49642.70.49650.49660.49670.49680.49690.49700.49710.49720.49730.49742.80.49740.49750.49760.49770.49770.49780.49790.49790.49800.49812.90.49810.49820.49820.49830.49840.49840.49850.49850.49860.49863.00.49870.49870.49870.49880.49880.49890.49890.49890.49900.4990<br />
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