Housing prices continue to impact the affordability of housing Raw material costs are up 29.8% Y/Y Liberals and NDP have done little to address the systemic issues facing supply chain including excessive regulations and increases in taxes like carbon taxes.

1. Preliminary– Inflation
Analysis –Canada
Paul Young CPA CGA
March 22, 2022

2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA (1996)
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Customer Success Management
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos

3. Agenda
• Consumer Price Index
• Housing Price Index
• Housing Prices
• Household Debt to Income
• Carbon Taxation
• Cdns above the average wage
• Cable and Satellite Pricing Index
• Lumber Prices
• Natural Gas
• Summary

4. Introduction
• The liberal ran on a platform saying they would make things more
affordable. This presentation discuss key policy changes as part of
people assessing did the Liberals make lives either more affordable
or less affordable

5. OECD and Inflation

6. Child Care Costs
Blog – Childcare and Daycare – Canada – What is next
I believe in program spending if it is effective in terms of results. The $10 childcare model proposed by @JustinTrudeau
is poorly constructed due systemic issues with daycare like oversight, availability of spots, and cash strapped families.
My work - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/daycare-and-child-care-funding-canada-october-2021
While the federal government seems to have placed Quebec’s child-care system on a pedestal, hailing it as the “very best
example,” we believe the national child-care plan could — and should — do better. Almost from its inception in 1997, the
Quebec daycare system has had long waiting lists that aren’t getting any shorter. Some 51,000 children are currently
waiting for a space. Things have gotten to the point where families believe it’s normal to spend several years on a waiting
list before getting a slot in a subsidized child-care centre. This is despite the now billions of dollars spent every year
throughout the system.
https://financialpost.com/opinion/opinion-lets-not-kid-ourselves-quebecs-child-care-is-no-model
This daycare plan is flawed! https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/daycare-and-child-care-
funding-canada-october-2021 . You may want to read the various audit reports on the existing
issues with daycare before making your various tweets.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/childcare-ontario-liberals-
1.6207667?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar

7. Inflation / Canada
Source – Stats Canada
CPI - Canada -
February 2022.pdf

8. Summary - Inflation

9. Housing Costs vs Lumber

10. Price Change by Main Area

11. Summary - Inflation

12. Housing Price Index
Source - https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/housing-index

13. BMO – Consumer Price Index
Source -
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/deta
il/2cb89f8c-5f2c-4cd1-b642-550ea67076e2/
Source – BMO - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/f3043170-c659-40f3-
b37f-14ca75272422/
U.S. CPI Still Behind
the Eight Ball.pdf
Canadian CPI — Got
Milk Inflation .pdf

14. New Housing Price Index

15. Consumer Price Index

16. Industrial Produce Price Index
Producer Price Index
and Raw Material - February 2022 - Canada.pdf
Canada Producer
Prices Climb 3.1% in February From January - MarketWatch.pdf
Record numbers of
UK manufacturers raise prices as Ukraine war hits costs Manufacturing sector The Guardian.pdf
NAHB calls for
ending lumber tariffs, boosting output at White House Event.pdf
Fertilizer Prices Break
New Records-- in Conjunction with Elevated Commodity Prices, Stir Food Security Concerns • Farm Po
Quebec Ink As war
and autocracy threaten critical mineral supplies, Quebec stands to benefit - The
Let us not replace
one dependence with another – EURACTIV.com.pdf
German LNG
Terminal’s Developers Seek Fast Track to Cut Russian Gas Reliance - BNN Bloomberg.pdf
Soaring Costs For
Farmers Puts Upward Pressure On Inflation.pdf
What's going on with
the nickel market - Marketplace.pdf
Why higher steel
prices don’t help the bottomline.pdf
Summary:
Brief: Canada's February Industrial Product
Price Index Up 3.1% M/M, Gains 16.4% Y/Y;
Raw Materials Price Index Adds 6.0% M/M,
Climbs 29.8% Y/Y
Source - https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/Brief-Canada-s-February-Industrial-Product-
Price-Index-Up-3-1-M-M-Gains-16-4-Y-Y-Raw-Materials--39826589/
1. Raw Materials - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/canada-producer-prices-climb-3-1-in-
february-from-january-271647953013
2. Price Increases - https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/22/uk-manufacturers-
prices-ukraine-war-cbi-rishi-sunak-spring-statement
3. Tariffs 0 https://lbmjournal.com/nahb-calls-for-ending-lumber-tariffs-boosting-output-at-white-
house-event/
4. Fertilizer - https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2022/03/fertilizer-prices-break-new-records-in-
conjunction-with-elevated-commodity-prices-stir-food-security-concerns/
5. Critical metals - https://thelogic.co/news/quebec-ink/quebec-ink-as-war-and-autocracy-
threaten-critical-mineral-supplies-quebec-stands-to-benefit/
6. Critical metals - https://www.euractiv.com/section/circular-economy/opinion/let-us-not-
replace-one-dependence-with-another/
7. LNG - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/german-lng-terminal-s-developers-seek-fast-track-to-cut-
russian-gas-reliance-1.1740797
8. Farming costs - https://www.barchart.com/story/news/7677243/soaring-costs-for-farmers-
puts-upward-pressure-on-inflation
9. Stainless - https://www.marketplace.org/2022/03/21/the-nickel-market-has-gone-bonkers/
10. Steel - https://www.livemint.com/market/mark-to-market/raw-material-cost-rise-blunts-steel-
price-hike-11647890714317.html

17. Household Costs / Carbon Pricing CAN environmental ranking has dropped one position under
your watch
No where do you mentioned either the dumping of sewage into
waterways or the impact of cruise ships.
No where do you mentioned that carbon tax hurts family
$1K+/yr (ex-tax credit)
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-
environment-climate-change-issues-and-concerns-canada-
september-2019
@cathmckenna
You allow sewage into waterways
Cruise ship have emissions issues
Oil is going by rail
Canada already taxed pollution way before your carbon tax
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-
environment-climate-change-issues-and-concerns-canada-
september-2019

18. Carbon Tax
Source – Fraser Institute

19. Average Wages / Canada

20. Lumber Cost
Source - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/operations/new-record-wood-product-prices-boost-shares-and-estimates-for-canadian-producers-259279/ or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/forestry-management-environment-sustainable-practices or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-the-forestry-sector-243761063

21. Housing Cost

22. Natural Gas
Natural gas prices continue to rise
Natural gas plants are moving to zero-emissions through carbon sequestration processes
Carbon tax prices will continue to impact utility costs for both households and businesses
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-natural-gas-250240876
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/16/why-natural-gas-could-extend-its-pullback-according-to-charts.html
Key Takeaway: These are good times for natural gas producers, which could extend into next year. Thus, the risks to our
annual average forecast for Henry Hub of $3.50 for 2021 and $3.00 for 2022 remain skewed towards the upside.
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/65ad0b01-40d1-4f0f-be57-71d7851ff5f0/

23. Electricity Costs
European electricity prices have climbed to their highest levels in over a decade in recent weeks, rising above 100 euros
per megawatt-hour in many markets. In Germany and Spain, for example, prices in September have been around three
or four times the averages seen in 2019 and 2020. This increase has been driven by the surge in gas, coal and carbon
prices in Europe.
Chinese utilities are only permitted to pass along 10% price increases. They have not yet been permitted to pass along
more price increases to consumers. This makes for a less flexible response the shortages and price increases.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2021/09/coal-and-gas-prices-have-doubled-which-contribute-to-china-power-
outages.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+blogspot%2Fadvancednano+%
28nextbigfuture%29
My work: https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/world-electricity-analysis-and-commentary-june-2021

24. Global Energy Prices
• Global energy prices have spike due to issues with
energy supply -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/world-
electricity-analysis-and-commentary-july-2021

25. Monetary Policies
• All Canadian governments had an inflation target between 1.5 and 2.1% range as part of any
monetary policy - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-global-monetary-policies-
october-2021
• Bank of Canada has raised concerns about the economy – https://www.reuters.com/business/bank-
canada-says-economic-slack-not-yet-absorbed-getting-closer-2021-11-15/
• Household debt - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-bank-of-canada-calls-out-investors-
for-boosting-home-prices-warns-of/
• Fiscal Plans - https://www.tradingview.com/news/mtnewswires.com:20211124:A2550042:0-td-on-how-
canada-s-federal-provincial-fiscal-plans-are-evolving/
• High housing costs - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/higher-interest-rates-will-leave-a-mark-on-the-
housing-market-and-the-canadian-economy-national-bank-of-canada-s-lovely~2329212

26. Other Sources
• If you like to learn
more about trade
and/or other
subjects as part of
your professional
learning, and
development then
feel free to review
my material on
https://www.udem
y.com/ (search Paul
Young CPA CGA

27. What’s next
• Removing the carbon tax
• All levels of government need to stop looking for ways to tax people
and start fixing issues with the tax code as well as finding better
ways to deliver government -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-fiscally-
responsible-government-canada-september-2019 or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-tax-
reforms-and-fairness-canada-september-2019
• Fixing policies that will ensure Canada is more competitive when it
comes to attracting FDI -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-canada-
competitivenes-september-2019
• All governments along with the private sector need to fix the
systemic issues with housing -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-housing-
affordability-canada-june-2019
• All levels of government along with private sector need to work
together as part of address the skill gap issues -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-human-
capital-and-skills-management-canada-september-2019
• Post-Covid19 - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/whats-
next-for-canada-post-covid19
• Fixing issues plaguing the goods-producing sector -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-address-issues-
facing-getting-goods-to-market
• Circular Economy - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-
to-best-support-a-circular-economy
Blog – Cost of Living – Canada – February 2022
CPI - Canada -
February 2022.pdf
Canadian CPI — Got
Milk Inflation .pdf
Household debt in
Canada reaches new highs amid real estate boom Wealth Professional.pdf
Canada annual
inflation rate accelerates to 5.7% in February Nasdaq.pdf
Australia unveils $360
million in critical minerals funding to offset China dominance.pdf
An orange's journey
from the orchard to the Arctic highlights food insecurity in the North CBC Radio.pdf
Canada real estate
Buyers get more options while prices break more records.pdf
Carbon Tax Raises
Inflation by Around Half a Point Bank of Canada Governor.pdf
Why is gas priced so
differently at fuel stations in the same region CTV News.pdf
STELTER Fixing social
safety net doesn't have to come at the cost of raising taxes Winnipeg Sun.pdf
Tiff Macklem
Opening statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance.pdf
Tackling Canada’s
Supply Chain Critical to Economic Recovery OCC.pdf
Ongoing disruptions
force supply chain strategies to evolve.pdf
Retail execs sound
off on supply chain disruptions, inflation, operations Retail Dive.pdf
TSX claws back
losses as investors await Fed rate decision SaltWire.pdf
Union has yet to
issue strike notice against CP in Canada (updated and corrected) - Trains.pdf
Summary:
Canada inflation is now at 5.7% the highest level in over 40 years
The average price of a house is now over 812K
Household debt is at all-time high
Source - https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/canada-annual-inflation-rate-accelerates-to-5.7-in-february
1. Food security – https://www.cbc.ca/radio/costofliving/from-russian-oil-to-thrift-stores-and-the-
trip-an-orange-takes-from-fresno-to-inuvik-1.6381556/an-orange-s-journey-from-the-orchard-
to-the-arctic-highlights-food-insecurity-in-the-north-1.6381649
2. Housing - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-real-estate-buyers-get-more-options-
while-prices-break-more-records-155715627.html
3. Carbon tax - https://www.theepochtimes.com/carbon-tax-raises-inflation-by-around-half-a-
point-bank-of-canada-governor_4338777.html
4. Gasoline - https://windsor.ctvnews.ca/why-is-gas-priced-so-differently-at-fuel-stations-in-the-
same-region-1.5820656
5. Safety net - https://winnipegsun.com/opinion/columnists/stelter-fixing-social-safety-net-
doesnt-have-to-come-at-the-cost-of-raising-taxes
6. Bank of Canada - https://www.bis.org/review/r220315d.htm
7. Supply chain - https://occ.ca/mediareleases/as-the-pandemic-continues-to-disrupt-business-
governments-must-act-now/
8. Rail strike - https://www.techtarget.com/searcherp/news/252514657/Ongoing-disruptions-
force-supply-chain-strategies-to-evolve