1. Responses and proposed solutions from key global actors
Challenges to effective solutions
2. Some sceptics dismiss Al Qaeda as
significantly weakened
Threat from Al Qaeda and its affiliates will
likely depend on several factors –
Survival of a leadership structure
Weak governments in North Africa and the
Middle East
Support from local cells
3. It appears that Al Qaeda will retain key
leaders (although not necessarily based in
Afghanistan or Pakistan)
That some government will continue to
remain weak – such as Yemen
And that Al Qaeda will continue to enjoy local
support ins some countries
4. Its objectives will remain fairly consistent
– overthrowing multiple regimes to establish
a pan-Islamic caliphate ( a caliphate is like an empire and the word
‘pan’ means something which is unified e.g. in the 1930s Germany and Austria spoke of
pan-Germanism )
And fighting the United States and its allies
who support them
5. AYMAN AL-ZAWAHIRI (AL
QAEADA CORE)
AQAP’s leadership is
compartmentalized, and
highly decentralized,
allowing it to withstand
attacks and arrests and still
continue to operate.
6. 2004 – Attack on Khobar, Saudi Arabia – Khobar
in the hub of the Saudi oil industry.
In the attack at the Khobar Petroleum Centre,
four AQ militants forced their way in and shot 22
Westerners.
Osama bin Laden had vowed to destabilise the
Saudi government, which the Saudi-born
extremist viewed as insufficiently Islamic and
which he derided for its close relationship with
the United States.
7. AQAP has committed several acts of terror in
Saudi Arabia, with the militants focusing on the
country's valuable and vulnerable oil
infrastructure.
After the 2004 Khobar attack the price of oil
reached $42 a barrel – an all time high at that
point in history. In a statement an Al Qaeda chief
noted that ,”This irks the malicious government
that is committed to guaranteeing America's
prosperity and the continuation of the oil flow.'
8. 2009 – The underwear
bomber (or known as the
Christmas Day bombing)
The near miss bombing
of jetliner over Detroit -
in which a would be
bomber attempted mid
flight to light an
explosive hidden in his
underwear. The jihadist,
Umar Adbulmutallab
was trained in Yemen.
9. 2012 - the CIA foiled an attempt by a Yemeni
trained would be bomber who planned to use
it on a US bound airliner on the anniversary of
Bin Laden’s death.
This new bomb was also designed to be used
in a passenger's underwear, but this time al-
Qaeda developed a more refined detonation
system, US officials said.
20. The USA’s TSA (Transport Security
Administration) also introduced new security
measures in American airports.
The TSA has implemented more thorough
screening procedures for passengers and their
baggage whereby passengers are asked to
remove shoes and checked baggage passes
through an explosive detection system.
21. But the real change has been the institution of "many
layers of security," including measures that go beyond
passenger screening, such as heightened police
presence outside of airports and increased cooperation
between airlines and security officials
The TSA pre-screens passengers. Airlines are required
to submit lists of passengers to the TSA, which then
compares the names to a watch list.
No fly lists – individuals with known links to terrorist
organisations names are placed on the TSA’s No Fly
List
22. The Friends of Yemen, set up in 2010,
comprises 40 states and organisations which
co-ordinate international support for the
Arab world's poorest country. It suffers from
the second highest malnutrition rates in the
world, a lack of water and medicine, weak
governance, corruption and grave security
problems.
23. The goal of aid and development assistance
provided by The Friends of Yemen group is
help the country combat a resurgent threat
from al-Qaeda in the ancestral homeland of
its slain leader, Osama bin Laden.
24. The group continues to propose democratic
reform in Yemen and attempts to coordinate
increased development aid for Yemen, its
primary concern is stability in the country and
containment of AQAP.
In 2012 the Friends of Yemen pledged $4
billion in aid to Yemen – money that is crucial
to Yemen which is facing a food crisis, with
malnutrition rates doubling since 2009.
25. 34% of the population is unemployed.
45% live below the United Nations‘ poverty
line
55% are illiterate
GDP per capita $2000
26. The US has made
hundreds of attacks on
targets in Pakistan since
2004 using drones
These attacks are part of
the United States' War
on Terrorism campaign,
seeking to defeat
Taliban and Al-Qaeda
militants in Pakistan.
27. The US has also used drones in Yemen – the
average rate being a drone strike a day in
2012
The use of drone strikes has escalated under
the Obama administration, with Obama
calling 2010 the ‘year of the drone’
28.
29. Top US officials consider drone strikes very
successful and believe that the senior al-Qaeda
leadership has been 'decimated' by these strikes
The US has stated that drone strikes are legal
because of the right to self-defence. The US is
involved in an armed conflict with Al Qaeda, the
Taliban, and their affiliates and therefore may
use force consistent with self-defence under
international law
30. The U.S. has increased military aid to and
cooperation with Yemen as part of the war on
terror.
With several foiled bombing attempts – the two
‘underwear’ attempts in 2010 and 2012, AQ is
still highly active in Yemen and poses a threat to
US security.
The U.S. has more than doubled aid to Yemen
this year, reaching an estimated $345 million.
31.
32. Increased scanning at airports for bombs –
The increased sophistication of the bomb
which was to be used in 2012 shows that Al
Qaeda’s bomb makers are adaptable and
highly skilled.
33. The FBI is examining the latest bomb (2012)
to see whether it could have passed
through airport security and brought down
an airplane, officials said. They said the
device did not contain metal, meaning it
probably could have passed through an
airport metal detector. But it was not clear
whether new body scanners used in many
airports would have detected it.
34. Asymmetrical warfare is a violent struggle in
which the two belligerents are mismatched in
terms of their military capabilities.
"The smaller power applies its strengths
against the weaknesses of the larger power,”
35. Asymmetric warfare includes methods such
as guerrilla warfare, terrorism, sabotage,
subversion and criminal activities
36. The success of Al Qaeda’s bomb makers in
developing bombs which can circumvent the
airport security designed to diminish their
capabilities highlights one of the difficulties
states face in fighting asymmetric warfare.
Actors who use asymmetric forms of warfare
rely on unconventional methods such as terror
attacks, which rely on the element of surprize
and novelty for their effectiveness.
37. Terrorism combines surprise and shock to
amplify effect and demoralize the broader
public. It is asymmetric only so far as it
"attack[s] vulnerabilities not appreciated by the
target.
The U.S. government remains ill-prepared to
counter such surprise. Most U.S. strategic
planning with regard to terrorism focuses on
replication of past activities
38. This means when Al
Qaeda develops a new
technique, target or
weapon – as in the new
bombs which can pass
through air security
detectors designed to
pick up metal, Al
Qaeda has a significant
advantage.
39. No Fly List –
Despite the heightened focus on passenger
screening, it too remains a magnet for criticism. As
for pre-screening passengers, Shanks says, "In
principle it’s a good idea, but in practice it doesn’t
always turn out that way." The watch lists compared
with passenger manifests are just lists of names.
Ordinary passengers with names similar to ones on
the list have at times been stopped, and Shanks says
there’s little to stop a terrorist from creating a false
identity
40. Pre-screening passengers
lists works only in flights
originating from the US.
Every recent attempted
terrorist attack on US
aviation has come from
abroad – Richard Reid, the
shoe bomber, boarded a
flight in Paris, Umar
Adbulmutallab , the
underpants bomber,
boarded a flight from
Amsterdam.
41. Although it has only
been les than a year
and half since the first
meeting in London,
many analysts believe
the process within the
group of Friends of
Yemen has been
doomed to fail from
the start.
42. • The main reason for such pessimistic views
rises from conflicting interests among
regional neighbors and Western
governments.
• Until now, Western governments have
focused on demanding democratic reform by
Yemen in areas such as civilian command of
armed forces, the judiciary and the electoral
process.
43. Some observers mentioned that work on such
issues has been stalled by Arab partners who
are not interested in such priorities since at the
end it will affect their own societies who will
demand such reform in the Gulf countries as a
consequence of their participation in the
group.
(States such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates
are not democracies by any means - power and wealth is held in the hands of a few
royal families in each of these states – you could describe these states as
autocracies – a terms meaning power is held in the hands of the one or the few)
47. As Al Gore said:
“another axis of evil in the world: poverty &
ignorance; disease & environmental disorder;
corruption & political oppression”
Military action to combat terrorism does
nothing to address some of the root causes of
poverty.
48. Since Sept. 11, 2001, the U.S. has launched a war
on terrorism, but it has neglected the deeper
causes of global instability.The nearly $500 billion
that the U.S. will spend this year on the military will
never buy lasting peace if the U.S. continues to
spend only one-thirtieth of that, around $16 billion,
to address the plight of the poorest of the poor,
whose societies are destabilized by extreme
poverty
49. The U.S. has promised repeatedly over the
decades, as a signatory to global agreements like
the MDGs, to give a much larger proportion of its
annual output, specifically up to 0.7% of GDP, to
official development assistance.
The U.S.'s failure to follow through has no political
fallout domestically. Often because of its position
as the world’s largest giver of FDA at $19 billion
Americans are often unaware of how little the US
gives on a per capitia basis – 0.25% of GDP.
50. When politicians promise to
cut foreign aid in the US, this
is generally well received by
the public (because of
erroneous beliefs that the
US gives too much).
Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney’s
running mate in 2012
promised that a Republican
administration would cut
foreign aid by $5 billion
51. Cuts in aid, or lack of aid make it harder for the international
community to counter the growth of terrorism.
For example Yemen is one of the world’s most water
stressed states – tipped to be the first in the world to run out.
Yemen needs ODA to help its government deal with some of
the conditions (poverty, unemployment, a sense of
hopelessness and grievance) which foster extremism and
terrorism.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56. Role of technology –
As his various speeches addressing Western
nations and Muslims around the world
indicate, Osama bin Laden recognized the
important role the media plays in making
terrorism’s tactics effective and impactful.
57. The success of an act of terrorism is dependent not
only on the physical attack itself, but also on the
reactions of multiple audiences; as a result,
terrorists “do not commit actions randomly or
senselessly. Each wants maximum publicity to be
generated by its actions and, moreover, aims at
intimidation and subjection to attain its
objectives…frighten and, by frightening, to
dominate and control.They want to impress.They
play to and for an audience”
58. At the same time, terrorism plays upon fear, since
“Terrorism is as much about the threat of violence
as the act of violence itself” (Hoffman, 32).
Terrorist activity strives to generate an atmosphere
of fear, insecurity, and uncertainly about potential
aggression.This instability can prompt people, and
even governments, to think and react differently
than they would have otherwise.This is exactly the
factor that al Qaeda recognized and exploited in
attacks of September 11.
59. Al Qaeda has used technology to spread its
ideology across the world in hopes of
recruiting individuals to their cause.
By embracing the technology, bin Laden
could become a symbolic leader rather than a
commander in chief.
60. His messages could continue to spread, and
recruitment could take place without any physical
communication, with tactics like “a two hour al
Qaeda recruitment video that bin Laden had
circulated throughout the Middle East during the
summer of 2001…with its graphic footage of
infidels attacking Muslims [and] children starving
under the yoke of the UN economic sanctions in
Iraq”
61. Circulating recruitment videos through the
Internet publicized negative incidents that could
incite sympathy and feelings of being wronged in
the viewer; for that reason, the appeal of al Qaeda
increased, especially as bin Laden’s claims against
the United States and theWest were validated with
horrific footage.
