Tim Petry's "Corn, Cattle, Confusion" PowerPoint for Extension Conference.

1. Photo courtesy of Judy Jacobson, Watford City
Corn, Cattle, Confusion
Tim Petry – Livestock Economist
www.ndsu.edu/livestockeconomics
October 16, 2013
corn,cattle,confusion-Oct2013.pptx

2. Corn
Cattle
Confusion

3. 2012
NOV FC vs DEC CORN

4. 2013
NOV FC vs DEC CORN

5. Omaha Corn Prices
Weekly
$ per bu
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2013
2012
2011
Avg. 2006010
Avg. 200206
JAN
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
OCT
G-P-02

6. CORN: Sun Prairie Grain - Minot

8. Government Shutdown
Oct. 1-16, 2013

9. Government Shutdown
• Cash market not reported by USDA-AMS
• CME Feeder Cattle Index (avg. of AMS prices)
– used to settle feeder cattle futures
– used to settle LRP contracts
– the last reported Index was record high $159.89 on
Sep. 30
• LRP insurance (USDA-RMA) not available and
existing contracts not settled
• No Oct. COF (USDA-NASS) report (rescheduled
Oct. 31)

10. Calf and Feeder Cattle Prices
• Under 600 lb. - very good demand supported by winter wheat grazing
10/17/13 – Valentine, NE
243 head, fancy, 493 lb. @ $220.25
100 head, fancy, 553 lb. @ $198.75
•
600 – 700 lb. - weaker demand – especially unweaned
•
Over 700 lb. - very good demand supported by record corn crop, farmer
feeder, and excess feedlot capacity
10/17/13 – Green City, MO
318 head, 800-850 lb. @ $170.76 avg.
•
Heifers - steep season discounts with light receipts but premiums for
replacement quality
Nebraska- Replacement Quality
500-550 @ $199.49
700-750 @ $175.50

11. MED. FRAME #1 STEER CALF PRICES
550-600 Pounds, N.D., Weekly
190
180
170
Projected
160
2013
150
2012
140
2011
2007-2011 AVG
130
120
110
100
90
JAN
APR
JUL
OCT

12. MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES
750-800 Pounds, N.D., Weekly
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Fut 2014
Fut 2013
Projected
2013
2012
2011
2007-2011 AVG2
JAN
APR
JUL
OCT

13. 160
155
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
9/1/05
11/1/05
1/1/06
3/1/06
5/1/06
7/1/06
9/1/06
11/1/06
1/1/07
3/1/07
5/1/07
7/1/07
9/1/07
11/1/07
1/1/08
3/1/08
5/1/08
7/1/08
9/1/08
11/1/08
1/1/09
3/1/09
5/1/09
7/1/09
9/1/09
11/1/09
1/1/10
3/1/10
5/1/10
7/1/10
9/1/10
11/1/10
1/1/11
3/1/11
5/1/11
7/1/11
9/1/11
11/1/11
1/1/12
3/1/12
5/1/12
7/1/12
9/1/12
11/1/12
1/1/13
3/1/13
5/1/13
7/1/13
9/1/13
CME Feeder Cattle Index
19%
+17%
16%
21%
22%
0%
19%
10%
?

14. www.ndsu.edu/cattledocs

15. Profit from Backgrounding $174 Calves
550 lb. to 750 lb.
ADG = 2.77 lbs.
72 Days on Feed (Example: Oct. 30 – Jan. 11)
$/Head
Price
750 lb.
Steer
($/cwt)
150
155
160
165
170
3.50
24
60
96
132
168
3.70
21
56
92
128
164
Corn ($/bu.)
3.90
4.10
17
53
89
13
49
85
125
161
121
157
4.30
9
45
81
117
153
4.50
5
41
77
113
149

16. Harvest usually brings
out the bears
Questions?