1. THE SILVER FERN REPORT: Boulder
An analysis of real estate market conditions in
Boulder, Colorado
August, 2010
Phone: 303 586 1241 | www.silverfernhomes.com
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THESILVERFERNREPORT:AUGUST2010
www.silverfernhomes.com ph: 303 586 1241
Legal
This presentation was prepared exclusively for the benefit and use of the Silver Fern Homes clients in order to
assist their study of real estate market conditions. This presentation is for discussion purposes only and is
incomplete without an in-person, oral presentation by Silver Fern Homes. This presentation reflects our views
of prevailing market conditions on this date, which are subject to change. Silver Fern Homes recommends
careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. The following
presentation is not to be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held
liable for investment decisions derived from this presentation. Previous market performance is not a
guarantee of future results and there is financial risk associated with buying or selling property. Consult with
your financial, legal, and real estate advisers before making an investment decision. The data in this
presentation was obtained by private and public sources, without independent verification.
3. Boulder, Colorado
Phone: 303 586 1241
www.silverfernhomes.com
“Our goal is help you get
the most value from your
unique real estate
situation. We offer our
clients the latest market
information, straight
forward advice and the
highest standards of
service.”
- Osman Parvez, Co-Founder
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THESILVERFERNREPORT:AUGUST2010
www.silverfernhomes.com ph: 303 586 1241
The Team
Osman Parvez: Co-Founder and Associate Broker. Osman’s professional experience includes investment
analysis, real estate development, and investment banking. He also loves being in the wilderness and has
research experience studying the impacts of climate change. Osman holds an MBA in finance and a B.S. in
Biology
Email: osman@silverfernrealty.com ph: 303.746.6896
Dallice Tylee: Co-Founder and Managing Broker. She holds a GRI and CRS. Dallice is also a Certified
Negotiation Expert, EcoBroker, and Accredited Staging Professional. A native of New Zealand, Dallice's
attention to detail and thorough, disciplined approach comes from previous professional experiences in health
sciences. She is passionate about interior design and landscaping.
Email: dallice@silverfernrealty.com ph: 303.746.6765
Crystal Callipari: Associate Broker. Crystal’s experience as a real estate investor and home builder
provides unique insight on buying, selling and marketing strategies. Prior to joining Silver Fern, she was a
frequent client of the firm, giving her perspective on the quality of service clients should expect from their
broker. Crystal has lived in Colorado for over 13 years with her husband. She has two grade school aged
children, one of whom is a competitive figure skater and the other a black belt in martial arts.
Email: crystal@silverfernrealty.com ph: 720.841.2701
Robbin Merta: Administrative Assistant. She has a B.F.A. in graphic design, experience owning several
small businesses, and is studying for her Realtor's license. Her strong interest and experience in home
renovation, both personally and professionally, is a practical complement to the Silver Fern team. She is a
stained glass artist who also enjoys volleyball, cooking and martial arts.
Email: robbin@silverfernrealty.com ph: 303.993.6139
5. Spotlight: The Colorado Chautauqua Association
Mission: to preserve, perpetuate and improve the
site and spirit of the historic Chautauqua by
enhancing its community and values through cultural,
educational, social and recreational experiences.
The Chautauqua experience is based on lifelong
learning, love of nature, voluntary simplicity, and
music, oration and the arts. Historic significance,
traditions, cultural relevance, respite and enrichment
are among the community benefits provided by the
Colorado Chautauqua
www.chautauqua.com
Silver Fern donates 5% of every
commission to local non-profits.
2009 Recipients:
Boulder Shelter for the Homeless
Colorado Chautauqua Association
Greenwood Wildlife Rehabilitation Sanctuary
Big Brothers Big Sisters
I Have a Dream Foundation
Circle of Care
Growing Gardens
Intercambio de Comunidades
Wildlands Restoration
Boulder Emergency Squad
Boulder Day Nursery
Citizens' Community Television
2008 Recipients:
Archway Wildlife Rehabilitation
Association for Community Living
Big Brothers, Big Sisters
Boulder Humane Society
Boulder Shelter for the Homeless
Front Range Center for Assault Prevention
Greenwood Wildlife Rehabilitation Center
I Have a Dream Foundation
Circle of Care
The Medicine Horse Program
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THESILVERFERNREPORT:AUGUST2010
www.silverfernhomes.com ph: 303 586 1241
Time After Time
2455 Bluff Street
Key Statistics:
3 Bed, 4 Bath
2,008 SQFT
Sold: 7/30/10
Days On Market: 130
Sold: $746,500
% of Original Asking : 93%
A succession of buyers have
rolled the die and hoped to
make some money on this
house. Spec’d and sold in
2006 and then again in 2008,
2009, and now 2010. With
fees, not likely at breakeven.
Notable Sales
A Million Off Sale?
2895 Stanford Ave
Key Statistics:
4 Bed, 4 Bath
6,430 SQFT
Sold: 7/30/10
Days on Market: 475
Sold: $1,700,000
% of Original Asking : 63%
Even the most stubborn sellers
eventually capitulate to Mr.
Market. Another beautiful, high-
end spec project with all the
bells and whistles that went
awry.
Left Money On The Table
420 S. 43rd
Street
Key Statistics:
5 Bed, 2 Bath
2,700 SQFT
Sold: 7/01/10
Days on Market: 42
Sold: $325,000
% of Original Asking : 99%
Seriously underpriced and
under contract in 3 days. Basic
ranches go for more in Martin
Acres. This one was on a quiet
street in the central part of the
neighborhood and included a
full basement. Oops.
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THESILVERFERNREPORT:AUGUST2010
www.silverfernhomes.com ph: 303 586 1241
Gold Run
2902 Shadow Creek, #304
Key Statistics:
2 Bed, 2 Bath
1,003 SQFT
Sold: 7/07/10
Days On Market: 163
Sold: $246,875
% of Original Asking : 90%
On the creek path, near CU and
29th
Street, and popular with
students and young
professionals. Too bad it
catches fire every now and then,
but sprinklers are likely in the
future. This one was a
penthouse unit with an elevator.
Boulder: Notable Sales
Land Lease
350 Arapahoe, Unit: 19
Key Statistics:
2 Bed, 2 Bath
851 SQFT
Sold: 7/02/10
Days on Market: 571
Sold: $33,000 (not a typo)
% of Original Asking : 22%
Land leases come with financing
issues and uncertain risk. Add
$9,500/yr for the lease and
$230/month HOA. Awesome
location but dropped to
unbelievable $39/SQFT to find a
buyer. Add some head
scratching for due diligence.
Beats A Dorm
2870 E. College Ave #104
Key Statistics:
1 Bed, 1 Bath
792 SQFT
Sold: 7/16/10
Days on Market: 79
Sold: $235,000
% of Original Asking : 96%
One of three similar units that
closed in July, with prices that
range from $297 to $373/SQFT.
What accounts for the
difference? Hate to be the guy
who bought the small one for
26% more.
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THESILVERFERNREPORT:AUGUST2010
www.silverfernhomes.com ph: 303 586 1241
Neighborhoods: Newlands
• There is no formal definition of the
neighborhood. For purposes of this
analysis, the search area was bounded by
Alpine to the south, Broadway to the east,
and Linden to the north. This is the blue
shaded area of the map.
• Note: some homeowners north of Iris
might claim to belong to Wonderland Hills.
Yes, the lot sizes are larger on Juniper,
Kalmia, and Linden, but "the hill" in
Wonderland Hills doesn't really begin until
north of Linden.
Research Spotlight
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THESILVERFERNREPORT:AUGUST2010
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Neighborhoods: Newlands
• The chart shows sales
volume over the past six
months in Newlands. The
same time period is shown
for the past four years.
• This year broke the trend,
with sales volume
increasing 100% from last
year’s level.
• Despite the increased
activity, volume remains
below the level in 2007,
which itself was not a
particularly great year for
Boulder Real Estate.
Research Spotlight
Sold Houses in Newlands
Last Six Months (Feb-July)
0
5
10
15
20
2007 2008 2009 2010
data: IRESIS
Down
33%
Down
38%
Up
100%
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THESILVERFERNREPORT:AUGUST2010
www.silverfernhomes.com ph: 303 586 1241
Neighborhoods: Newlands
• This chart compares sales
volume over the past six
months to recent inventory
levels.
• As the season winds down,
inventory remains at nearly
twice the level of what sold
over the past six months.
Research Spotlight
Sold vs Inventory of
Houses in Newlands
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Sold (L6M) Inventory (8/13) data: IRESIS
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THESILVERFERNREPORT:AUGUST2010
www.silverfernhomes.com ph: 303 586 1241
Neighborhoods: Newlands
• Market performance can
differ wildly by
neighborhood. This chart
shows how Newlands
compares with all of
Boulder and with Martin
Acres.
• Martin Acres, which has a
high percentage of entry
level homes, not
coincidentally also has an
exceptionally low supply of
inventory. Newlands has
nearly 3x the supply of
inventory.
Research Spotlight
Months of Inventory
0
2
4
6
8
10
Newlands All Boulder Martin Acres
data: IRESIS
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THESILVERFERNREPORT:AUGUST2010
www.silverfernhomes.com ph: 303 586 1241
Neighborhoods: Newlands
• This chart depicts the price
distribution of current
inventory and listings that
sold over the past six
months.
• The red circle highlights a
glaring problem: nothing
sold over $1.4MM in
Newlands over the past six
months, yet a large volume
of homes remains
available. It’s a clear
indication of downward
price pressure at the high-
end.
• If Silver Fern was
representing a higher-end
buyer in Newlands, this
would be presented to the
seller accompanying our
initial low offer.
Research Spotlight
Price Distribution
in Newlands
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
$1,800,000
Inventory Sold (L6M) data: IRESIS
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THESILVERFERNREPORT:AUGUST2010
www.silverfernhomes.com ph: 303 586 1241
Neighborhoods: Newlands
• This chart shows price
distribution of sales in
Newlands over the last six
months and the same time
period for the previous
three years.
• Adding weight to the
argument that prices will
come down for high-end
properties in Newlands is
the fact that little has sold
while inventory remains
high (see last slide).
• The density of sales
between $600,000 and
$800,000 suggests a
support for pricing but
unless demand increases
materially at the high-end,
prices should continue to
erode from the top down
over the long-term.
Research Spotlight
Sold Price Distribution
in Newlands
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
$1,800,000
2007 2008 2009 2010
data: IRESIS
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THESILVERFERNREPORT:AUGUST2010
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Neighborhoods: Newlands
• Failed listings are those
that automatically expire
from the MLS at the end of
the contract term or are
pulled off the market by
sellers (usually due to lack
of buyer interest).
• Looking back over the past
six months, the number of
failed listings fell somewhat
this year.
• 2009 was an unhappy year
for a surprising number of
sellers in Newlands.
Research Spotlight
Failed Listings in Newlands
Last Six Months (Feb-July)
0
5
10
15
2007 2008 2009 2010
data: IRESIS
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THESILVERFERNREPORT:AUGUST2010
www.silverfernhomes.com ph: 303 586 1241
Neighborhoods: Newlands
• Adding sales volume to the
previous chart shows that
there were more failed
listings than successful
closings last year.
• This year has been
somewhat better, but the
failure to success rate is
still dismally low.
• We reiterate: choose an
agent who adds value to
the transaction. The
agents at Silver Fern will
help you understand the
market and advise you on
how to get maximum value.
Research Spotlight
Listings in Newlands
Last Six Months (Feb-July)
0
5
10
15
20
2007 2008 2009 2010
Sold Failed data: IRESIS
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THESILVERFERNREPORT:AUGUST2010
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Neighborhoods: Newlands
• The chart shows the
average and median
negotiated discount (from
last asking) in Newlands
over the last six months.
The same time period is
shown over four years.
• As market conditions
weaken, negotiation
leverage shifts to buyers.
• Agents have been able to
negotiate steeper discounts
and buyer expectation for
larger discounts is
increasing.
• For buyers, our goal at
Silver Fern is to do better
than “average.”
Research Spotlight
Negotiated Discount in Newlands
Last Six Months (Feb-July)
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010
Median Average data: IRESIS
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THESILVERFERNREPORT:AUGUST2010
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Months of Inventory
• 5 to 6 months of inventory
is considered a normal or
“healthy” market.
• As expected, with the
expiration of the buyer tax
credit, inventory has
climbed in nearly all local
markets. Superior is the
exception.
• The largest relative
increases in inventory
have been in the Boulder
Attached Dwelling and
Broomfield markets.
Research Spotlight
Months of Inventory
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Boulder Boulder AD Broomfield Erie Lafayette Longmont Louisville Superior
3 Mo. Avg
Latest Month
www.silverfernhomes.com data: BARA
based on:
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THESILVERFERNREPORT:AUGUST2010
www.silverfernhomes.com ph: 303 586 1241
Lessons from the Trenches
On Pricing:
• Sellers: before listing, pay obsessive attention to
your home’s competition. At Silver Fern we
carefully review other homes a buyer might
consider before establishing a marketing plan.
On Negotiation:
• Primary negotiation occurs with the offer.
Knowledge of recent closings, when properly
communicated, adds leverage for buyers seeking a
large discount from the asking price.
On Inspection Resolution:
• It’s reasonable to expect concessions for serious
flaws uncovered through the buyer’s property
inspection, however this is not generally a second
round of negotiation. Get the price settled during
the primary negotiation.
• Trivial inspection items are usually not addressed
in resolution. Focus on the big ones.
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THESILVERFERNREPORT:AUGUST2010
www.silverfernhomes.com ph: 303 586 1241
Get A Great Deal
• Buying or selling a home is one of life’s largest
financial decisions. Shouldn’t you have a
professional adviser?
• We believe agents should add value and earn their
commission. The sooner we get started, the more
we can help.
• Give us a call. The real estate experts at Silver Fern
Homes can advise you on current market conditions,
help you find the right home, and negotiate the best
possible deal.
• We work with buyers and sellers throughout Boulder
County and beyond, including international
relocations.