The document discusses the history of computing from early mechanical calculating machines to modern computers. It provides quotes from experts in the past who underestimated the future of computing. It outlines key developments like Babbage's analytical engine, Hollerith's tabulating machines, the first general purpose electronic computers like ENIAC during World War 2, the transition to transistors, integrated circuits, mainframes, minicomputers, and the rise of personal computers. The evolution of computing has been driven by both military needs and the growing demand for data processing in business.

1. Lecture L12
THE RISE OF THE MACHINE

2. “I can assure you on the highest authority that the
data processing is a fad and
won’t last out the year.”
Editor-in-charge of business books, Prentice-Hall
1957

4. dictionary.com

5. 68 Years ago
“I
think
there
is
a
world
market
for
maybe
five
computers.”
-­‐
Thomas
Watson,
chairman
of
IBM,
1943

6. 37 years ago
“There
is
no
reason
for
any
individual
to
have
a
computer
in
their
home.”
-­‐
Kenneth
Olsen,
president
and
founder
of
Digital
Equipment
Corp.,
1977

7. Think about this
How many computers do you
have in your household?

8. History
Computing is time consuming and error prone
!
Demands for computation were increasing with more organised societies
!
Industrial revolution and the Napoleonic reforms !
!
Impetus came from Government: Taxing and Defence

9. The Counting Business
Efforts to speed calculations started early
!
Use of logarithmic tables and trigonometry to speed calculations

10. The Counting Business
The Slide Rule by William Oughtred in 1625
!
Built using logarithms, multiplication of two numbers could be done easier
a*b = 10^(log(a)+log(b))
!
!
!
!
Much quicker than manual calculation

11. Early Machines
Wilhelm Schickard (1592 -1635)
!
German professor of Hebrew and Astronomy
University of Tüblingen, Germany
!
Built a calculating machine in 1620s
!
Documented in letters to Johannes Kepler !
1623 and 24

12. Early Machines
Blaise Pascal (1623-1662)
!
French mathematician, physicist, and
religious philosopher
!
Built an adding machine in1642-44
!
Tried to commercialise the machine but
labor was too cheap

13. Early Machines
Wilhelm von Leibniz (1646-1716)
!
German mathematician and philosopher
!
Built a machine, the Leibniz Wheel that
could multiply and divide

14. History
Workmanship for building complex machines lacked
!
In late eighteenth century demand for calculation was growing
!
Calculations were done by hand
!
Tedious, slow and error-prone and tables of logarithms were riddled
with errors

15. Think about this
The idea of calculating with steam was to many
impossible - machines could never take over this
human activity
!
Yet it did. Can you think of a task done today that will
be taken over by machine in the future?

16. Charles Babbage (1791 – 1871)
Sometimes called Inventor of the Computer
!
Wanted to remove the inevitable
human errors from computing
!
Believed that machines could
replace laborious and
error-prone calculations

18. Charles Babbage (1791 – 1871)
Designed the Difference Engine
!
Machine to compute polynomials
!
Got grants but efforts were slow
!
Lack of workmanship of the time
delayed the project
!
Worked stopped 1833

19. Charles Babbage (1791 – 1871)
Babbage started on a new machine in 1834
Beginning of the 2nd Kondratiev – Steam
!
Analytical engine
!
Programmable machine – with
primitive programming language
Input was in punched cards
Run by steam

20. A Programmable Machine
General purpose computer
!
Contained
mill to calculate,
store to keep data,
and formulas
!
The first programmer:
!
Ada Lovelace had influenced
the machine

21. The Cash Register

22. The Cash Register
!
One of the first calculating machines
!
Developed by James Ritty in 1879 in response to thefts by staff
!
“The Incorruptible Cashier”
!
National Cash Register Company – NCR
!
One of the salesman was Tomas Watson, Sr.
!
Watson would later leave for
CRT – Computing-Tabulating-Recording
Company

23. Tabulating Machines

24. Tabulating Machines
In the US need for data processing was growing
One application was census taking
!
US population grew from
17 million in 1840 to
50 million in 1880
It took 1.495 clerks 7 years to
produce the 1880 census

25. Tabulating Machines
Tabulating Machine Company – TMC
!
US Census Bureau awarded Herman Hollerith a contract to produce the
1890 census
!
Tabulating Machines with punched cards
!
Successfully finished in 2,5 years
with one-third less cost (claimed)
Source:
Tabulating
machine
Herman
Hollerith

26. Tabulating Machines
Used punched cards
Hollerith cards were in use until 1960s
Source:
Tabulating
machine
Herman
Hollerith

27. Tabulating Machines
The Business of Data Processing
!
Even with the growing need for data processing around 1900, the
market for tabulating machines was limited
!
CRT and TMC merged and would later change the name to
International Business Machines – IBM

28. “I think there is a market for about five computers”
- Tomas Watson, Sr.
Electronic Brains

29. Electric Computing
Foundation of electric computing was laid early
!
Mechanical computers were not considered practical
!
Electricity is widespread
!
Threat of war is looming in the 1930s
Governments turn to computing for ballistic computations and code-breaking

30. The Prevailing Technology Trap
Although electricity had
entered the equation, it had
done so only as an alternative
method of powering
mechanical equipment
Source:
Engines
that
Move
Markets

31. Early Work
Konrad Zuse (1910-1995)
German Engineer
Built primitive machines, Z1-Z4 based
on relay switches in 1936 – 1944
!
Used binary system
Designed his own language, Plankalkül
!
Never received any official support from
war-time Germany unlike the Allies
P2 max (V0[:8.0],V1[:8.0]) => R0[:8.0]
V0[:8.0] => Z1[:8.0]
(Z1[:8.0] < V1[:8.0]) -> V1[:8.0] => Z1[:8.0]
Z1[:8.0] => R0[:8.0]
END
Source:
Konrad
Zuse

35. Bletchley Park
Location of top-secret code-breaking team
Code-breaking the German coding machine ENIGMA

36. Alan Turing
English mathematician, logician, and cryptographer
!
Headed the team at Bletchley Park
Worked on the algorithms to break
the ENIGMA code
!
Bombe Computer based on heuristics
!
Lead to COLOSSUS – one of the first
electronic computer
!
Publishes paper in 1936: On Computable Numbers
Source:
Alan
Turing,
COLOSSUS,
Enigma

37. War Machines
COLOSSUS!
!
Built in England’s Bletchley Park and used by British code breakers to read
encrypted German ENIGMA messages during World War II
!
Designed by Alan Turing
!
Winston Churchill specifically ordered the destruction of
most of the Colossus machines into 'pieces
no bigger than a man's hand‘
Source:
COLOSSUS

38. War Machines
ENIAC!
!
Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer
!
Built by the U.S. Army for the purpose of calculating ballistic firing tables
Used 18.000 vacuum tubes
!
Designed by John Mauchly and J. Presper Eckert!
!
The machine was unveiled in 1946 and
was in operation until 1955
Source:
EINIAC

39. John von Neumann
Hungarian mathematician
!
Worked on the Manhattan project
and became involved in Moore’s
School ENIAC and EDVAC projects
!
Publishes paper - or a memo,
On computer design, 1945
!
Came to be know as
Von Neumann architecture
John
von
Neumann,
Von
Neumann
architecture

40. Post-war
Computers
Based on
Vacuum Tubes
Copyright
©
2011
Ólafur
Andri
Ragnarsson

41. UNIVAC I
Commercial Computer
!
5,200 vacuum tubes, weighed 13 tons, consumed 125 kW, and could perform ab
1,905 operations per second running on a 2.25 MHz clock
!
Occupied more than 35.5 m²
of floor space
!
The addition time was 525
microseconds
Source:
UNIVAC
I
Source:
Model
of
UNIVAC
I,
c.
1954.
Picture
from
Smithsonian
Institution

42. Transistor Era
Copyright
©
2011
Ólafur
Andri
Ragnarsson

43. Transistor was invented by William Shockley,
John Bardeen and Walter Brattain in 1948

44. Transistor
Device use to amplify or switch electronic signals
!
Huge performance
improvement
Smaller
Less energy
More robust
Faster
Copyright
©
2011
Ólafur
Andri
Ragnarsson

45. Computers became
faster, larger and more
powerful
Copyright
©
2011
Ólafur
Andri
Ragnarsson

47. Tyranny of Numbers
Computer Engineers have much more flexibility with transistors
!
Problem was that as the number of components
increased, wiring them together became a problem
Copyright
©
2011
Ólafur
Andri
Ragnarsson
Source:
Tyranny
of
Numbers,
Transistor
Computer

48. The Integrated circuit

49. The Invention of the Integrated Circuit
Introduced in 1958 by two inventors
!
Robert Noyce at Fairchild Semiconductor and Jack Kilby at Texas Instruments
!
Transistors could be wired
together in practical way
!
Mass manufacturing of ICs
Copyright
©
2011
Ólafur
Andri
Ragnarsson
Source:
Integrated
circuit

50. Adjacent
Possible
Two inventors at the same time
invented the IC
Copyright
©
2011
Ólafur
Andri
Ragnarsson

51. Competition Emerges
The Computer Market is born
The main application is data processing
• Business applications like Payroll, inventory and so on
!
IBM enters the computer business
Tomas Watson, Jr. launched
IBM System/360 in 1964
!
Systematically replaced
data processing machines
with mainframe computers

52. In the 1950s Automation Starts

53. Automation
Automation – Computers begin to disrupt
!
Start to replace jobs
!
Banks and insurance companies were early adopters
!
Handling paycheques, payroll that used to require many clerks to compute

54. Automation
Hollywood took notice
!
Desk Set from 1957 with
Spencer Tracey and
Katherine Hepburn
Source:
Desk
Set
(from
IMDB)

55. From Mainframes to Personal Computers

56. Think About This!
The Disruptive Innovation Theory
Resources, Processes and Values Theory

57. Computers in the 1970s

58. Mainframes
Large computers in data centers
!
Batch operations
Critical applications
Financial transaction processing
!
IBM
704
IBM
System/360

59. Centralisation

60. Time-sharing
Computers were expensive to purchase and maintain
!
To make it efficient required multiple users
Large data centers
!
Utility Computing
!
Time-sharing of expensive equipment

61. Moore’s Law
Cost of computers went down

62. Minicomputers
Cost for new entrants in the computer business was prohibitive in the 60s
!
Market for those that did not need complete solution but could benefit
from using computes
!
Birth of the Minicomputers
!
Two major client groups:
academic community and the military

63. Minicomputers
Digital Equipment Corporation!
!
Founded in 1957 by Ken Olsen
Launched PDP-1 in 1960
!
The PDP-8 was the first successful
commercial minicomputer – 1965
!
Used integrated circuits
!
Time-sharing allowed multiple
users to use the machines at the same time

64. The Disruptive
Innovation Theory
Digital used relatively simple,
convenient, low-cost innovation
to create growth and disrupt IBM

65. RPV
IBM Was a mainframe company,
their customers wanted
mainframes, not low-performance
mini computers

66. SOFTWARE