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New Technology 2012

                                           Course Introduction




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson                         1
Teacher
 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
        – Adjunct at Reykjavik University – since 1989
        – Chief Software Architect, Betware – since 1998

        –    andri@ru.is
        –    http://www.olafurandri.com
        –    http://twitter.com/olandri
        –    http://delicious.com/olandri

        – Office hours after Friday lecture

Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson                   2
Course Content
            Study of Technology
                                                       Technology Innovations
Evolution of Technology
                                                      Technology Adoption
       Disruptive Technology
                                                      Surviving Technology
                Technology Trends
                      Mobile                           Communication
                                           Wireless        Machines that Count
Personal Comptuers                             Operating Systems                         TV
                                                                             Local
                                           Human Computer Interfaces                 Social
                        Gamification    The Internet
                                Computer games
            Future Trends    New Business models
Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson                                                      3
Study of Technology

        What does technology mean?

                                           How do we define technology?




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson                                  4
Technology Innovations
                                           How does innovation happen?

    Why are things invented when they are?

                               Does science fiction influence technology?




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson                                 5
Evolution of Technology
               How does technology evolve?

  When will Moore’s Law end?

                                           Technology Life Cycle
  Crossing the Chasm




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson                           6
Adoption of Technology
               Why do people adopt new technology?

  Why do good technologies fail and inferior succeed?

                                      What are customers buying?




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson                           7
Disruptive Technology
               Technologies that change everything

  Why do businesses always fail to respond?

               Reactions to disruptive technologies




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson              8
Surviving Technology
                  Making all the right decisions and still failing

     Why listening to your customers is fatal

                                           The Innovator’s dilemma




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson                             9
Technology Trends
       Can we track and understand technology trends?

The Prevailing Technology Trap

                                      Principles of Disruptive Innovations




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson                                     10
Communications
  The ultimate market

Those who have access
to information tend to win


      Telegraph, telephone,
      wireless transmissions,
      broadcasting




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson   11
Mobile
       Cellular networks

                  Generations

  Smartphones


           The iPhone effect




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson   12
Wireless
          The Wi-Fi revolution

    Standards

                      RFID


    Near-field communications




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson   13
Machines that Count
       From adding machines to
       electronic brains to
       general purpose computers

Disruption of Automation


       Birth of the IT industry




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson   14
Personal Computers
       MITS Altair 8800

                   Birth of Microsoft

Apple Computer and the two Steves

       How IBM created an industry




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson   15
Operating Systems
       Xerox Parc

                          The DEMO of the Century

Beginning of GUIs

                   OS for the consumers




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson            16
Human Computer Interfaces

    Beyond the Desktop


            Touch, gesture and audio


New User Interfaces


            Displays anywhere



Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson   17
TV

    The transformation of the
    TV industry is beginning


                 TV of the Future




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson   18
The Internet

    The Accidental network

Brief History of the Internet

       The Future of the Internet




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson   19
Social

       P2P
                                           UGC

            Collaboration

     Crowdsourcing

                         The Long Tail


      Folksonomy

Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson         20
Local

       Checking in


                    Mining the digital footprint


     Exploiting context


                                 Machine learning




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson            21
New Business Models

       The Business of Music


                   Beyond selling digital copies


   Freeconomics


           Freemiums




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson           22
Computer Games

       The rise of computer games

                       The crash of 1986
                                           Casual games
  Multiplayer games

                          Serious games


  Future of games



Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson                  23
Gamification

       Getting people to do stuff they don’t like

                     Status and rewards


   Player types


                     Player emotions




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson            24
Future Trends
       What’s next?

                    Genetics, nanotechnology and robotics

Virtual reality is
more real than reality

               Your phone will tell you
               what you need to know




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson                    25
Reading
 Textbook
        – There is no printed text book
        – New Technology text available
          as PDF
        – Reading material are articles
          or videos from the Internet
        – Some are posted on http://olafurandri.com
 Reading is either required or optional
        – All readings will be posted on the course web



Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson                  26
Interesting Books
 Engines That Move Markets
        – Alasdair Nairn
 The Innovators Dilemma
        – Clayton M. Christensen
 Crossing the Chasm
        – Geoffrey A. Moore
 The Tipping Point
        – Malcolm Gladwell
 The Invisible Computer
        – Donald A. Norman


Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson   see http://www.olafurandri.com/?cat=3   27
Interesting Books
 Where do good ideas
  come from
        – Steve Johnson
 What Technology Wants
        – Kevin Kelly
 Reality is Broken
        – Jane McGonigal
 The Singularity is Near
        – Ray Kurzweil
 The Future of the Internet
  and how to Stop it
        – Jonathan Zittrain
Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson   see http://www.olafurandri.com/?cat=3   28
Interesting Web Sites
 Economist - http://www.economist.com
 Technology Review -
  http://www.technologyreview.com
 NY Times - http://www.nytimes.com
 Businessweek - http://www.businessweek.com/
 ZDNet technology News - http://news.zdnet.com/
 CNet - http://www.cnet.com/ (news.cnet.com)
 Google News - http://news.google.com
 Yahoo Finance News - http://finance.yahoo.com/
 Ars Technica - http://arstechnica.com/
 Wired - http://www.wired.com/
 Guardian - http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology
              http://www.olafurandri.com/?page_id=1490
Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson                 29
Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson   30
Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson   31
Grading
 Exams
        – Three exams in class 20% (10% each)
 Study exercises
        – Short in-class exercises 10%
 Assignments
        – Two assignments 20% (10% each)
 Paper Peer-review
        – Review of paper and comments 10%
 Research Paper
        – Research of a particular topic 40%


Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson        32
Research
 Objectives
        – Term project
        – Study or research of a particular topic chosen by the
          student
        – Must be approved by the teacher
 Area of study
        – Can be a device, a concept, a trend, a
          standard, philosophy or a metaphor, or a particular
          product
        – Gather information and write a paper
        – Best papers will be published
 Your research starts now!
Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson                          33
Research
 These milestones are set:
        –    Topic selection is due 10.02
        –    Goals and outline are due 24.02
        –    Draft for Peer Review is due 09.03
        –    Peer-Review is due 16.03
        –    Paper is due 23.03 at 17:00


 Research Paper is an individual work and is
  40% of the course grade
        – Draft and Peer-review is 10%

Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson          34
Research Study Group
 Group of 4-5 students
        – Will read your paper and give you review
        – Valuable service
        – Peer review




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson             35
Web Site
 Course Web Site in MySchool




 Teacher’s web site: http://www.olafurandri.com
        – Twitter: @olandri #nyti

Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson       36
Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson   37
Timeplan (stundaskrá)




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson   38
Laptops
 Laptops and other communication devices
  are forbidden in class
        – You don’t need them!




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson    39
Prerequisite
 None... except




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson   40
Prerequisite
 No programming required
 Interest in technology and social change is
  recommended
 Qualification test
        – 2001 Space Odyssey
        – The Matrix
        – Minority Report
                • http://www.minorityreport.com/




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson           41
Syllabus 1/2




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson   42
Syllabus 2/2




Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson   43

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L01 new technology course description

  • 1. New Technology 2012 Course Introduction Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 1
  • 2. Teacher  Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson – Adjunct at Reykjavik University – since 1989 – Chief Software Architect, Betware – since 1998 – andri@ru.is – http://www.olafurandri.com – http://twitter.com/olandri – http://delicious.com/olandri – Office hours after Friday lecture Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 2
  • 3. Course Content Study of Technology Technology Innovations Evolution of Technology Technology Adoption Disruptive Technology Surviving Technology Technology Trends Mobile Communication Wireless Machines that Count Personal Comptuers Operating Systems TV Local Human Computer Interfaces Social Gamification The Internet Computer games Future Trends New Business models Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 3
  • 4. Study of Technology What does technology mean? How do we define technology? Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 4
  • 5. Technology Innovations How does innovation happen? Why are things invented when they are? Does science fiction influence technology? Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 5
  • 6. Evolution of Technology How does technology evolve? When will Moore’s Law end? Technology Life Cycle Crossing the Chasm Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 6
  • 7. Adoption of Technology Why do people adopt new technology? Why do good technologies fail and inferior succeed? What are customers buying? Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 7
  • 8. Disruptive Technology Technologies that change everything Why do businesses always fail to respond? Reactions to disruptive technologies Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 8
  • 9. Surviving Technology Making all the right decisions and still failing Why listening to your customers is fatal The Innovator’s dilemma Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 9
  • 10. Technology Trends Can we track and understand technology trends? The Prevailing Technology Trap Principles of Disruptive Innovations Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 10
  • 11. Communications The ultimate market Those who have access to information tend to win Telegraph, telephone, wireless transmissions, broadcasting Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 11
  • 12. Mobile Cellular networks Generations Smartphones The iPhone effect Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 12
  • 13. Wireless The Wi-Fi revolution Standards RFID Near-field communications Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 13
  • 14. Machines that Count From adding machines to electronic brains to general purpose computers Disruption of Automation Birth of the IT industry Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 14
  • 15. Personal Computers MITS Altair 8800 Birth of Microsoft Apple Computer and the two Steves How IBM created an industry Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 15
  • 16. Operating Systems Xerox Parc The DEMO of the Century Beginning of GUIs OS for the consumers Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 16
  • 17. Human Computer Interfaces Beyond the Desktop Touch, gesture and audio New User Interfaces Displays anywhere Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 17
  • 18. TV The transformation of the TV industry is beginning TV of the Future Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 18
  • 19. The Internet The Accidental network Brief History of the Internet The Future of the Internet Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 19
  • 20. Social P2P UGC Collaboration Crowdsourcing The Long Tail Folksonomy Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 20
  • 21. Local Checking in Mining the digital footprint Exploiting context Machine learning Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 21
  • 22. New Business Models The Business of Music Beyond selling digital copies Freeconomics Freemiums Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 22
  • 23. Computer Games The rise of computer games The crash of 1986 Casual games Multiplayer games Serious games Future of games Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 23
  • 24. Gamification Getting people to do stuff they don’t like Status and rewards Player types Player emotions Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 24
  • 25. Future Trends What’s next? Genetics, nanotechnology and robotics Virtual reality is more real than reality Your phone will tell you what you need to know Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 25
  • 26. Reading  Textbook – There is no printed text book – New Technology text available as PDF – Reading material are articles or videos from the Internet – Some are posted on http://olafurandri.com  Reading is either required or optional – All readings will be posted on the course web Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 26
  • 27. Interesting Books  Engines That Move Markets – Alasdair Nairn  The Innovators Dilemma – Clayton M. Christensen  Crossing the Chasm – Geoffrey A. Moore  The Tipping Point – Malcolm Gladwell  The Invisible Computer – Donald A. Norman Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson see http://www.olafurandri.com/?cat=3 27
  • 28. Interesting Books  Where do good ideas come from – Steve Johnson  What Technology Wants – Kevin Kelly  Reality is Broken – Jane McGonigal  The Singularity is Near – Ray Kurzweil  The Future of the Internet and how to Stop it – Jonathan Zittrain Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson see http://www.olafurandri.com/?cat=3 28
  • 29. Interesting Web Sites  Economist - http://www.economist.com  Technology Review - http://www.technologyreview.com  NY Times - http://www.nytimes.com  Businessweek - http://www.businessweek.com/  ZDNet technology News - http://news.zdnet.com/  CNet - http://www.cnet.com/ (news.cnet.com)  Google News - http://news.google.com  Yahoo Finance News - http://finance.yahoo.com/  Ars Technica - http://arstechnica.com/  Wired - http://www.wired.com/  Guardian - http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology http://www.olafurandri.com/?page_id=1490 Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 29
  • 30. Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 30
  • 31. Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 31
  • 32. Grading  Exams – Three exams in class 20% (10% each)  Study exercises – Short in-class exercises 10%  Assignments – Two assignments 20% (10% each)  Paper Peer-review – Review of paper and comments 10%  Research Paper – Research of a particular topic 40% Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 32
  • 33. Research  Objectives – Term project – Study or research of a particular topic chosen by the student – Must be approved by the teacher  Area of study – Can be a device, a concept, a trend, a standard, philosophy or a metaphor, or a particular product – Gather information and write a paper – Best papers will be published  Your research starts now! Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 33
  • 34. Research  These milestones are set: – Topic selection is due 10.02 – Goals and outline are due 24.02 – Draft for Peer Review is due 09.03 – Peer-Review is due 16.03 – Paper is due 23.03 at 17:00  Research Paper is an individual work and is 40% of the course grade – Draft and Peer-review is 10% Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 34
  • 35. Research Study Group  Group of 4-5 students – Will read your paper and give you review – Valuable service – Peer review Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 35
  • 36. Web Site  Course Web Site in MySchool  Teacher’s web site: http://www.olafurandri.com – Twitter: @olandri #nyti Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 36
  • 37. Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 37
  • 38. Timeplan (stundaskrá) Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 38
  • 39. Laptops  Laptops and other communication devices are forbidden in class – You don’t need them! Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 39
  • 40. Prerequisite  None... except Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 40
  • 41. Prerequisite  No programming required  Interest in technology and social change is recommended  Qualification test – 2001 Space Odyssey – The Matrix – Minority Report • http://www.minorityreport.com/ Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 41
  • 42. Syllabus 1/2 Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 42
  • 43. Syllabus 2/2 Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 43