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Climate Change: The Evidence and Our Options
1. Ice Core Paleoclimate Research Group
Ellen Mosley-Thompson
Henry Brecher
Mary Davis
Paolo Gabrielli
Ping-Nan Lin
Matt Makou
Victor Zagorodnov
Post-doc. Chiara Ugietti
Anna Wegner
Funding provided by:
NSF: Paleoclimate and Polar Programs
NASA: Earth Sciences (Glaciology)
NOAA: Paleoclimatology
Gary Comer Foundation
OSU Climate, Water & Carbon Program
Graduate Students:
Brad Goodwin
Katelyn Johnson
Karl Philippoff
Donaldi Permana
Stacy Porter
Climate Change: The Evidence and Our
Options
Lonnie G. Thompson
School of Earth Sciences and BPRC, The Ohio State University
Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Regional Council of Governments
Cincinnati, Ohio, August 16, 2013
2. Objective
Introduction to global climate change
Glaciers as recorders of global climate change
Examples of how changes in climate impacted past
Peruvian cultures
Evidence for recent acceleration of the rate of glacier loss
Evidence that some glaciers like the Quelccaya ice cap
are smaller than they have been in the last 6,000 years
Our Options
Why B.F. Skinner became pessimistic about human beings.
“Immediate consequences outweigh delayed consequences”
“Consequences for the individual outweigh consequences
for others” P. Chance, 2007
Our greatest challenges in the 21st
Century
3. Natural mechanisms influence climate
Changes in solar output
Changes in the amount of volcanic aerosols
in the atmosphere
Internal variability of the coupled
atmosphere-ocean system
(e.g., ENSO, monsoon systems, NAO)
Natural mechanisms
4. Human factors also influence climate
Non-natural mechanisms
Changes in the concentrations of atmospheric
greenhouse gases
Changes in aerosols and particles from burning
fossil fuels and biomass
coal (sulfate aerosols) – cooling
biomass (black carbon) – warming
Changes in the reflectivity (albedo) of Earth’s
surface and the hydrologic cycle
Smoke from fires in Guatemala and Mexico (May 14, 1998)
6. Stratosphere is cooling
Troposphere is warming
This response is expected
from GHG forcing & is
predicted by climate
models. It is not forced by
the sun!
Source: Hadley Center (data available at http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadat/images.html).
Atmospheric temperatures since 1958
7.
8. The Meteorological Record is Very Short
data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp
Year A.D.
Globally averaged temperature (land & ocean)
relative to the 1951-1980 mean
Year
9.
10. It’s not the Sun!
Source: Solar irradiance from composite satellite-based time series:
1976/01/05 to 2011/02/02 Physikalisch Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos
2011/02/03 to 2012/01/11 University of Colorado Solar Radiation & Climate Experiment
12. Class-100 clean room houses the equipment to analyze
dust, isotopes and chemicals
Machine shop for fabrication of our drills
Freezers for storage and cold rooms
for physical property measurements
13. Guliya ice cap, Tibet
Ice cores are powerful contributors to multi-proxy reconstructions:
1) they provide multiple lines of climatic & environmental evidence
2) ideal for revealing rapid climate changes
14. Dasuopu Glacier
Southern Tibet
Ice cores provide unique histories ……
from regions where other recording systems are limited or absent
Huascarán, Peru
15. Lüthi et al., Nature, 2008
Today:
CO2 is 393 ppmv
CH4 is 1800 ppbv
Thousands of Years (B.P.)
800 600 400 200 0
393
1800
1100
900
3700
IPCC Emission
Scenarios for
2100 AD
CO2 remains in the
atmosphere for decades
to millennia
Carbon Dioxide & Methane Concentrations
Past, Present and Future
Dome C
EPICA Dome C ice core extends back
through eight glacial and interglacial
stages (800,000 years) recording changes
in the composition of Earth's atmosphere
16. The fraction of CO2 remaining in the air, after emission by fossil fuel
burning, declines rapidly at first, but 1/3 remains in the air after a
century and 1/5 after a millennium (Atmos. Chem. Phys. 7, 2287-
17. 4
3
5
0
GlobalTemperature(°C)
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Year (C.E.)
2
1
0
0.4
-0.4
-0.8
IPCC Fourth Assessment, February 2007
IPCC 4th
Assessment (2007)
Projection for 2100 AD
2.0 – 4.5 o
C
Northern Hemisphere
temperature (°C)
for the last 1000 years
18. Population
1.0 billion in 1850
2.0 billion in 1930
4.1 billion in 1975
6.1 billion in 2000
7.0 billion in 2012
9.0 billion by 2050
In 2012 we also need animals and crops
17 billion Fowl
1.9 billion Sheep and goats
1.4 billion Cattle
1.0 billion Pigs
400 million Dogs
500 million Cats
In contrast, the pre-exploitation number of American Bison:
60 - 80 million
20. … to unprecedented demands
Looking ahead to 2030 … you can see sustained growth in global demand for electricity is
inevitable. Demand is forecasted to more than double by 2030 (Energy Information
Administration). Source: Mark Little, General Electric Global Research
2030
45. “Ice asks no questions,
presents no arguments,
reads no newspapers
listens to no debates.
It is not burdened by ideology and carries
no political baggage as it changes
from solid to liquid. It just melts.”
From A World Without Ice by Henry Pollack, 2009
Nature’s best thermometer, perhaps its most sensitive
and unambiguous indicator of climate change, is ice.
46. Muir Glacier, SE Alaska
August, 1941 (photo by William Field) August, 2004 (photo by Bruce Molnia
47. Kyetrak Glacier, Eastern Himalayas
Courtesy of the Royal Geographical Society Courtesy of Glacier Works
1921 2009
48. 19031903Foto: Archivio Storico – Biblioteca della Montagna SATFoto: Archivio Storico – Biblioteca della Montagna SAT
Foto: G. Alberti CGTFoto: G. Alberti CGT 20052005
Ghiacciai della Lobbia e dell’Adamello/Mandrone
(102 anni)
49.
50. 1978 – no lake
Retreat of the
Qori Kalis Glacier (Peru)
1978 – no lake
2011
lake covers 84 acres
52. The Third Pole … high, cold, remote & threatened by climate change
- Centered on the Tibetan Plateau & Himalayas
- Covers 5 million km2
- One of the largest glacial stores of fresh water over 46,000 glaciers
(Asia’s water tower)
- Glaciers feed Asia’s largest rivers
- Help sustain 1.5 billion people in 10 countries
62. Northern Ice Field
Stake 2 (2000)
From 2000 to 2007
- Northern Ice Field surface lowered 1.9 meters
- Furtwängler Glacier surface lowered 3.1 m
- Southern Ice Field surface lowered 5.1 m
Nearly equivalent volumes of ice are
now lost by shrinking and thinning
2004
2000
Thompson et al., PNAS, 2009
72. Recent and rapid melting of glaciers around the world
Climatologically we are in unfamiliar territory, and
the world’s ice cover is responding dramatically.
75. How to manage a world with threats from
climate change, rising sea levels and rising
energy consumption?
76. Perfect Storm is Brewing
Ingredients for a Perfect Disaster:
1000-year CO2 Lifetime
Climate System Inertia
Positive (Amplifying) Feedbacks
Fossil Fuel Addiction
Alternative: A Brighter Future
Low Cost Fuels
Clean Air & Water
Economic Development, Good Jobs
80. In 2011, Ohio
experienced its
wettest year on
record.
The cost of extensive repairs to roads and bridges was estimated at
almost $40 million. In requesting assistance for disastrous flooding that
Occurred in April and May, Ohio's Governor John Kasich said in a letter
to President Obama that the impacts in Ohio were "of such severity and
magnitude that effective response is beyond the capabilities of the state
and local government."
Findlay, Ohio
March 1, 2011
Toledo Blade
83. Fire near Colorado Springs, June 27, 2012
(Source: Sa BIne, Smithsonian.com)
The U.S has endured a near-record wildfire season
with the total acres burned roughly the same size as
Massachusetts and Connecticut combined:
2006-- 9.8 million acres
2007-- 9.3 million acres
2012-- 9.1 million acres
84. Waldo Canyon fire west of Colorado Springs, June 26, 2012 (source: RJ
Sangosti, The Denver Post)
“Consequences for the individual outweigh
consequences for others” P. Chance, 2007
86. Data: September 17, 2012
Left Panel: Sea ice extent (>15% ice); Right: sea ice concentration (%).
Pink Line: Climatological extent (1979—2000).
Source: National Snow and Ice Date Center, Boulder, Colorado.
Sea ice cover in September, 2012 was 3.42 million square kilometers (1.32 M sq. mi.) which is
18% smaller than the 2007 record low of 4.17 million square kilometers (1.61 M sq. mi.).
88. Hurricane /
Superstorm Sandy
Death toll: 110
Estimated cost:
$60 Billion
Illustrates the conditions
and events and scenarios
that we can expect from
climate change. In New
York and New Jersey
there are 45 superfund
toxic waste sites within
half a mile of the coast.
October 30, 2012
89. • Mitigation, means taking measures to reduce the pace & magnitude
of the changes in global climate that are caused by human activities.
Examples of mitigation include reducing emissions of GHG, enhancing
“sinks” for these gases, and “geoengineering” to counteract the
warming effects of GHG.
• Adaptation, means taking measures to reduce the adverse impacts on
human well-being that result from the climate changes that do occur.
Examples of adaptation include changing agricultural practices,
strengthening defenses against climate-related disease, and building
more dams and dikes. But it’s a moving target!
• Suffering, the adverse impacts that are not avoided by either
mitigation or adaptation.
So Society has Three Options!
90. Gov. Cuomo of New York to President Obama
“we have a 100-year flood every two years
now” In fact, three of the 10 biggest floods in
Lower Manhatten since 1900 have occurred in
the last 3 years.
Rising seas create a higher baseline for future
storm surges. Current estimates are that
coastal waters will rise by two feet by 2050 and
four feet by the end of the century
98. Our greatest challenges of the 21st
Century will be:
(1) learning how to get along with each other and
(2) learning how to get along with our Planet.
These two challenges deal with human behavior and
are closely related!
Eruption of Pinatubo June 1991 – in Philippines on Island of Luzon
Here is an outline of the structure of my talk. First I’ll discuss some of the key findings of a recent Intergovernmental report that investigated the nature and causes of climate change. Then I’ll define some terms that I’ll be using in my talk. Next I’ll try to give you some indication of the principal advances that have been made in our knowledge of the causes of climate change. Most of the talk will focus on discussion of one example of a so-called “fingerprint” study - a statistical comparison of patterns of climate change in observed data and in model predictions. Finally, in my concluding remarks, I’ll point out some of the key uncertainties in this type of work, and tell you why I believe that we all have a stake in advancing the science.
Data from weather balloons and satellites show a warming trend in the troposphere, the lower layer of the atmosphere, which extends up about 10 miles (lower graph), and a cooling trend in the stratosphere, which is the layer immediately above the troposphere (upper graph). This is exactly the pattern expected from increased greenhouse gases, which trap energy closer to the Earth’s surface. Source: National Research Council, 2010a The red curve is RSS; blue curve is UAH; black is HADAT2; green is the surface
Solar irradiance from composite satellite-based time series. Data sources: For 1976/01/05 to 2011/02/02 Physikalisch Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos, World Radiation Center and for 2011/02/03 to 2012/01/11 University of Colorado Solar Radiation & Climate Experiment . http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2011/
Comment to use to avoid stating some “average CO2 lifetime” - "Half the CO2 we pump into the atmosphere disappears into the ocean relatively quickly, but the other half stays in the atmosphere for thousands of years."
This is a composite picture of the earth as photographed at night courtesy of NASA. It clearly depicts the concentration of world electricity demand. But the earth and our world is changing … Populations and economies are expanding around the globe, both in developed and developing economies. The standard of living is rising in many parts of the world – better access to housing, clean water, education, medicine, transportation, entertainment, - and the enabler is electricity. Therefore; our 100 year old industry that has been the backbone of innovation and industrialization will continue to be vital to the future of our society and our planet. However there are many challenges and uncertainties we need to work through as a Power Generation Industry to meet the needs. We have the opportunity --- and the obligation, to support population growth, sustain economic growth and to reduce the intensity of our environmental footprint. Ongoing commitment is required for Technology, Innovation, Project Execution Excellence, Stable Policy and Public Awareness. Over the past few years we’ve seen the dynamics of our marketplace shifting … Growing population & energy density Cost of energy … fuel supply & demand Increasing environmental requirements Escalating energy security concerns
Looking ahead to 2030 … you can see sustained growth in global demand for electricity is inevitable. Demand is forecasted to more than double by 2030 (According to The Energy Information Administration)
The advance over 300 meters in 1600 years equals about 0.19 (about 0.2 m per year (0.0005 m per day) The retreat over 300 meters in 25 years (12 meters per year) 0.03 m per day
63 years - 800 meters thick - retreated 15 kilometers up valley
47 years
35 hectares (86 acres) - change shown is over 33 years 60 m deep (200 feet)
1 cu km = 1 Gt
Naimona’nyi Glacier – we drilled three cores
From marine nuclear testing from 1952 to 1958 in the South Pacific
The retreat of the Northern Ice Field on the top of Kilimanjaro is measured with the aid of accumulation stakes that were placed in 2000. The surface of the ice field has lowered 2.34 meters between 2000 and 2006.
From the 2012 Arctic Report Card (Box et al.) http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/greenland_ice_sheet.html Greenland ice sheet standardized melting index (SMI). The index is calculated by subtracting the melt index (MI) from the 1979 - 2012 average and dividing by its standard deviation (Tedesco, 2007). MI is the number of days on which melting occurred multiplied by the area where melting was detected. Extent of surface melt over Greenland’s ice sheet on July 8 (left) and July 12 (right). Measurements from three satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface. In just a few days, the melting had dramatically accelerated and an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet surface had thawed by July 12. In the image, the areas classified as “probable melt” (light pink) correspond to those sites where at least one satellite detected surface melting. The areas classified as “melt” (dark pink) correspond to sites where two or three satellites detected surface melting. The satellites are measuring different physical properties at different scales and are passing over Greenland at different times. As a whole, they provide a picture of an extreme melt event about which scientists are very confident. Credit: Nicolo E. DiGirolamo, SSAI/NASA GSFC, and Jesse Allen, NASA Earth Observatory
On the question of climate change, one might ask whether we have the institutions in place to deal with long term issues like greenhouse gas build up in our atmosphere. It also raises the question of whether it is like other crises in our past which dealt with local, region or national problems. Carbon dioxide, for example, has a residence time in our atmosphere of over 100 years. Thus the carbon dioxide which we are releasing today will be impacting our climate 100 years from now. So if we wait until the first crisis to take action on this issue, we will likely have already built in a whole series of crises that we will all have to deal with. Earth Image: This image of the Earth was taken by the Galileo spacecraft at about 6:10 a.m. PST on December 11, 1990. The spacecraft was about 1.3 million miles from the Earth. South America is near the center of the picture, and the white, sunlit continent of Antarctica is below. Picturesque weather fronts are visible in the South Atlantic, lower right. (Courtesy of NASA/JPL) Link: http://www.windows.ucar.edu/tour/link=/earth/images/earthx_image.html Byrd Polar Research Center 2005