Day 1 - Opening Session: What is the new 'normal' for mining? Objective Capital Global Mining Investment Conference 2010 Stationers' Hall, City of London 28-29 September 2010 Speaker: David Humphreys - DaiEcon

1. day 1 – opening session: What is the new ‘normal’ for mining? What is the new ‘normal’ for mining?David Humphreys – DaiEcon Advisors

2. GLOBAL MININGINVESTMENT CONFERENCE 2010 Lead sponsors: Media partners: Other sponsors & participating organisations:

3. What is the ‘New Normal’ for Mining ? David Humphreys DaiEcon Advisors Presentation to Objective Capital’s Global Mining Investment conference, London, 28-29 September 2010

5. Reregulation

7. Growing role of the state in affairs of the industry

9. Growing role of the state in affairs of the industry

11. OECD composite leading indicators % change USA Eurozone Japan Source: OECD

12. OECD industrial production Index of IP, 2005=100 EU USA Japan Source: OECD

13. China and India: industrial production Year-on-year % change China India Source: OECD, NBS.

14. Composition of global growth World GDP growth %, 5 year moving averages Forecasts Source: IMF

15. Developing world share of metal consumption % Sources: WBMS and worldsteel. For steel, data is for 2008, not 2009.

17. Growing role of the state in affairs of the industry

20. Growing role of the state in affairs of the industry

22. Mining country governance indicators Source: Worldwide Governance Indicators at http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspCountries are rated accordingly to a variety of criteria and then ranked. The numbers shown are the quartiles into which the country falls on the given measure. 1 = first quartile.

23. Criticality matrix for the US Source: US National Research Council, 2008

25. Growing role of the state in affairs of the industry

27. Trade regionalisation Growth in Asian trade Index 2001=100 (exports) Destination of Asian exports Asia World Source: WTO

29. Volatile commodity and currency markets

31. World’s largest mining companies - By value of mine production in 2008 - Source: Raw Materials Group

32. So what happens next?

33. Metals prices and exchange stocks Indexes 2000=100 Stocks (r.h.s) Nonferrous metals prices (l.h.s.) Source: The Economist, LME, Comex and SHME. Stocks is a composite index, weighted by value.

34. China: fixed asset investment Average annual % growth, nominal RMB terms Sources: NBS

35. Steel use per unit GDP Steel use (in t) per $m GDP China RoK Thailand Algeria Slovenia Slovak Rep Austria USA India Colombia New Zealand Norway GDP per capita US$ Source: World Bank and worldsteel. GDP is PPP based.

36. Current account imbalances US$ bn Source: IMF

37. US trade deficit $ billion sa

38. Shares of world GDP % of global GDP (market exchange rate basis) EU USA Japan China Source: IMF

39. Shares of world GDP % of global GDP (market exchange rate basis) EU USA Japan China Source: IMF

40. What is the ‘New Normal’ for Mining ? David Humphreys DaiEcon Advisors Presentation to Objective Capital’s Global Mining Investment conference, London, 28-29 September 2010

41. GLOBAL MININGINVESTMENT CONFERENCE 2010 Lead sponsors: Media partners: Other sponsors & participating organisations: