2010-12-06-affiliate-market-update
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This is Christine Todd's Northern Virginia market update presentation to the NVAR affiliates on Dec. 6, 2010.
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2010-12-06-affiliate-market-update
- 1. Affiliate Market Update Special Presentation by Christine M. Todd, CEO December 6, 2010
- 2. What’s happening in our market? Northern Virginia market In some ways we are like the rest of the country In others ways we are very different And in many ways we have one of the best markets in the nation!
- 3. Have we hit the bottom? -Indicators say “yes” and “no”! -Recovery is slow and painful -First time buyers and cash investors drove first half of 2010 recovery -Prices up, inventory weak but we see fewer short sales (thank goodness)
- 4. NAR: Record number of first-time homebuyers(Survey finds most buyers applied for tax credits) First-time homebuyers accounted for half of all home sales from July 2009 through June 2010 based on 8,449 responses to a survey sent nationwide. This is the highest share of first-time-buyer purchases in the history of the survey, which dates back to 1981.
- 5. Tax Credit was Huge Success 1 million additional buyers 1 million fewer inventory units Reduced months supply by 2 to 2.5 months Preserved Housing Wealth by nearly $1 trillion Limited future foreclosures
- 7. Investors still purchasing inventory with cash
- 8. Job losses and unemployment show improvement in our region
- 9. Economy will continue to slowly expand in 2011Source: Gerald L. Gordon ,PH.D President and CEO, Fairfax County Economic Development Authority
- 10. The U.S. market today The economy is growing slowly The private sector is finally creating some jobs, corporate profits are up Consumer confidence remains low, though clearly off bottom Source: NAR
- 11. Today’s Real Estate Market 30-year mortgage rate is at generational lows National median-home price is stabilizing Inventory is still very high Foreclosures more of a problem than short sales Source: NAR
- 12. Today’s Real Estate Market FORECLOSURE MESS Caused slow down in settlements NAR opposed nationwide moratorium Exposed weaknesses in financial regulations Hurt consumer confidence
- 13. Suggested Reading “FINANCIAL SHOCK” Global Panic and Government Bailouts “and what must be done to fix it” By: MARK ZANDI
- 14. Realtor. org NAR Info Central's Library Catalog NAR members and Association staff can borrow up to threeelectronic books, digital audios and/or videos at no cost, through theVirtual Library eBooks Collection. Up to three books, tapes, CDs and/or DVDscan be borrowed for 30 days from the Library for a nominal fee of $10.eBooks.realtor.org - Check out our ebooks! Hundreds of titles to download and read on your PDA, laptop, smartphone, or digital audio player. Download the eBooks Quick Start Guide to begin. http://www.realtor.org/library/virtual_library/catalog
- 16. Economic and Market Facts Most economists expect home values to rise in upcoming years, though not at a fast pace. Bad loans are nearly always made in good times. But recently originated loans are performing very well. Patient homeowners over the long-term do much better than renters in attaining wealth. Source: NAR
- 17. Return to Normalcy Unprecedented Boom and Bust: 2000 to 2010 Sales Boomed and Retreated Prices Overshot and Corrected Fundamentals Back to Justifiable Levels Long-standing Housing Policy still in place, but NAR keeping a watchful eye!
- 18. Long Standing Housing Policy Mortgage Interest Deduction If eliminated, estimated about a 15% loss in home values FHA Self-financing without ever needing taxpayer funds, but threatened Fannie and Freddie Made big mistakes and need to be restructured
- 19. Upside to the Downturn Consumers are paying off debts and credit cards Easy credit is out but………………. Buyers have to really qualify for a loan Lender’s are under the microscope New housing stock will be smaller, greener and more affordable
- 20. ?
- 24. Public Awareness Campaign: What Matters Most ? “What Matters Most ?” reminds homeowners, buyers and sellers alike that homeownership remains the foundation of the American Dream. The advertising materials underscore the value that REALTORS® bring to communities and their clients, and explain that REALTORS® are prepared—to show you options, answer your questions and guide you home.
- 29. Low mortgages
- 30. Save on taxes
- 31. It’s yours!
- 32. A better home
- 33. Forced savings
- 34. A lot to choose from
- 36. Home Owners' Net Worth Is More Than 40 Times That of Renters
- 38. Economists Expect Price Increases in Upcoming Years Northern Virginia Region already beyond these national estimates
- 39. Sample Markets with Price Increases % change from one year ago Source: Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.,Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of NAR
- 40. Home SalesDipping in 3rd quarter of 2010, then rising
- 41. Pending Contracts on Existing Homes Tax Credit Impact
- 42. Existing Home Sales Source: NAR
- 43. Homeownership Rate for Selected Years (1900 – 2010)
- 45. New Homes Construction 2.1 million In 2006 500,000 new starts in 2010 VS
- 46. Future Housing Shortage? Source: Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.,Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of NAR
- 47. Northern Virginia Market Population is growing New jobs are being created Unemployment around 5% and (would be lower if population were not growing) Prices up, inventory steady Foreclosure/Short Sales market shrinking
- 48. Dr. Yun’s predictions “Over the next 12 months, I will be watching Lexington, KY and Washington, DC to outperform the rest of the country”! May, 2010
- 50. Record high $569,826 June, 2007
- 51. Record low $376,669 Jan., 2009
- 52. 2010 first half average sales price - $472,762
- 53. October average sales price- $ 470,882Over 7% increase over last year
- 54. Commercial Real Estate…Lagging Lagging behind economic recovery Investment activity still down NOTE: lowest multi-family vacancy rates will be in San Jose, Pittsburgh and Washington DC, region
- 55. Real Estate Data FromReal Estate Business Intelligence MRIS and RBI are pleased to jointly announce the launch of the website for the new MRIS subsidiary, Real Estate Business Intelligence, the only company in the region that provides timely, online access to statistical information directly from the Multiple Listing Service(MLS). Full reports on RBI market statistics for all jurisdictions in the MRIS region are available through the RBI website at http://www.rbintel.com/statistics
- 56. Market Watch Videos rbintel.com/marketwatch-videos
- 57. NVAR.COM Market Statistics Monthly Reports Quarterly Rental Statistics Annual Sales Summary Year-End Report Quarterly Trends in Housing Publication
- 63. NVAR Counties- October, 2010 Stats
- 65. Supply and Demand (NVAR)
- 66. 2010 Sold Listings October
- 67. 2010 Under Contracts October
- 68. 2010 Ave. Sales Price (NVAR) October Record High- $578,689 (June 2006) Record Low- $376,669 (January 2009)
- 69. Economic GrowthSlow growth, but still positive
- 70. Benefits of Living in Fairfax County Source: Jerry Gordon, President and CEO of the Fairfax EDA
- 71. Recent Major Economic Development Activity in Fairfax County Northrop Grumman selects Fairfax County for new corporate headquarters, joining CSC Hilton Worldwide Science Applications International Corporation Volkswagen of America
- 72. NAR Challenges in the Coming Years Ensure flow of capital into the Real Estate market Creating access to affordable property insurance Preserving the value of homeownership Improving professionalism of REALTORS® Fighting the attack on Home Ownership MID……are you ready for the fight?
- 73. Did you pay your fair share? Agent- $40 Broker- $99 RPAC
- 77. Broker CE
- 78. Eco Broker Green Designation
- 79. GRI, Graduate Realtor® Institute
- 80. ABR, Accredited Buyer Representative
- 81. SFR-Short Sales and Foreclosure re-sale
- 84. Social Media Technology Series
- 85. December Offerings Building Your Tribe (Dec. 15 @Fairfax) Creating a Complete Marketing Plan with Internet tools Accredited Buyer Representative Designation-ABR (Dec. 13 & 14 @ Herndon) Short Sales and Foreclosures (Dec. 15 @Herndon)
- 86. Take advantage of this new member benefit for all 2011 members by learning how to make use of these form fillable documents. Please visit nvar.com/nvar-news/free-instanetforms-for-members
- 87. The IdentitySecure® Program for REALTORS® is the newest offering from NAR's REALTOR Benefits® Program and is among the most comprehensive fraud security solutions available today Find out about all the protection benefits of IdentitySecure®. Your first month is just $1. Visit the IdentitySecurewebsite for more information and to sign up. www.identitysecure.com/NAR
- 88. NEW! Auto Loan Offer Get a fixed low rate on a new or used vehicle with a 20% down payment. NEW! Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) -Plan for your future today with Traditional, Roth and SEP Savings & Certificate accounts Realtorsfcu.org
- 89. Health Insurance Realtors® Core Health Insurance Plan Guaranteed acceptance Low cost starting at $70.69 per month Choose any provider RealtorsCoreHealthInsurance.com/AE
- 90. Dental Insurance For more information: visit us online at RealtorsDentalInsurance.com
- 91. REALTOR.ORG
- 92. houselogic.com
- 95. Thank You!
Notas do Editor
- Custom animation effects: tipping scales(Difficult)To reproduce the shape effects on this slide, do the following:On the Home tab, in the Slides group, click Layout, and then click Blank.On the Home tab, in the Drawing group, click Shapes, and under BasicShapes select Oval (first row, second option from the left). Press and hold SHIFT and on the slide, drag to draw a circle.Select the oval. Under DrawingTools, on the Format tab, in the Size group, do the following:In the ShapeHeight box, enter 2.16”.In the ShapeWidth box, enter 2.16”.With the oval still selected, on the Home tab, in the bottom right corner of the Drawing group, click the FormatShape dialog box launcher. In the FormatShape dialog box, click Fill in the left pane, and in the Fill pane, do the following:Select Solidfill.Click the button next to Color, and then under ThemeColors select White, Background 1, Darker 25% (fourth row, first option from the left).Also in the FormatShape dialog box, click LineColor in the left pane, and in the LineColor pane, click Noline.Also in the FormatShape dialog box, click 3-DFormat in the left pane, and in the 3-DFormat pane, do the following:Under Bevel, in the Top list, under Bevel, select Angle (second row, first option from the left).Next to the Top list, in the Width box, enter 5.5 pt, and in the Height box, enter 9.5 pt. Under Depth, in the Depth box, enter 3.5 pt.Also in the FormatShape dialog box, click 3-DRotation in the left pane, and in the 3-DRotation pane, under Rotation, do the following:In the X box, enter 297.8°. In the Y box, enter 298.9°. In the Z box, enter 65.2°.Also in the Format Shape dialog box, click Shadow in the left pane, and in the Shadow pane, do the following:In the Transparency box, enter 60%.In the Size box, enter 105%. In the Blur box, enter 15 pt. In the Angle box, enter 120°. In the Distance box, enter 9 pt.Drag the circle to the bottom of the slide. On the Home tab, in the Drawing group, click Arrange, point to Align and then select AlignCenter. On the Home tab, in the Drawing group, click Shapes, and under Rectangles select RoundedRectangle (second option from the left). On the slide, drag to draw a rounded rectangle.Drag the yellow diamond adjustment handle to the right to create a rounded top.Select the rectangle. Under DrawingTools, on the Format tab, in the Size group, in the ShapeHeight box, enter 4.2”, and in the ShapeWidth box, enter 0.18”.On the Home tab, in the Drawing group, click the FormatShape dialog box launcher. In the FormatShape dialog box, in the left pane, click Fill, and in the Fill pane, do the following:Click Solidfill. In the Color list, under ThemeColors, select White, Background 1, Darker 15% (third row, first option from the left).Also in the FormatShape dialog box, in the left pane, click LineColor, and in the LineColor pane, click Noline.Also in the FormatShape dialog box, in the left pane, click 3-DFormat, and in the 3-DFormat pane, do the following:Under Bevel, in the Top list, under Bevel, select Circle (first row, first option from the left). Next to the Top list, in the Width box, enter 10 pt,and in the Height box, enter 10 pt. Position the bottom of rectangle so that it slightly overlaps the oval.Select the rounded rectangle. On the Home tab, in the Drawing group, click Arrange, point to Align, and select AlignCenter. With the rounded rectangle still selected, on the Home tab, in the Clipboard group, click the arrow below Paste and select Duplicate.Select the second rounded rectangle. Under DrawingTools, on the Format tab, in the Size group, do the following:In the ShapeHeight box, enter 4.35”.In the ShapeWidth box, enter 0.13”.With the second rounded rectangle still selected, on the Home tab, in the Drawing group, click Arrange, point to Rotate, and select RotateLeft 90°. Position the second (horizontal) round rectangle so that it slightly overlaps the top of the first, vertical round rectangle.Select the second (horizontal) round rectangle. On the Home tab, in the Drawing group, click Arrange, point to Align, and select AlignCenter. Select the first (vertical) round rectangle. On the Home tab, in the Clipboard group, click the arrow below Paste and select Duplicate.Select the third (vertical) rounded rectangle. Under DrawingTools, on the Format tab, in the Size group, do the following:In the ShapeHeight box, enter 0.32”.In the ShapeWidth box, enter 0.32”.Position the third, smaller round rectangle at the intersection at the top of the first (vertical) and second (horizontal) round rectangles.Select the third, smaller round rectangle. On the Home tab, in the Drawing group, click Arrange, point to Align, and select AlignCenter. Press and hold SHIFT and select the second (horizontal) and third (smaller) round rectangles. On the Home tab, in the Drawing group, click Arrange, and select Group.Select the oval. On the Home tab, in the Clipboard group, click the arrow below Paste and select Duplicate.Select the second oval. Under DrawingTools, on the Format tab, in the Size group, do the following:In the ShapeHeight box, enter 1.93”.In the ShapeWidth box, enter 1.93”.On the Home tab, in the bottom right corner of the Drawing group, click the FormatShape dialog box launcher. In the FormatShape dialog box, click Fill in the left pane, and in the Fill pane do the following:Click Solidfill.Click the button next to Color, and then under ThemeColors select White, Background 1, Darker 15% (third row, first option from the left).Also in the FormatShape dialog box, click Shadow in the left pane, and in the Shadow pane, in the Presets list, select NoShadow. Also in the FormatShape dialog box, click 3-DFormat in the left pane, and in the 3-DFormat pane, do the following:Under Bevel, in the Top list, under Bevel, select Slope (second row, fourth option from the left).Next to the Top list, in the Width box, enter 5.5 pt,and in the Height box, enter 5 pt. Under Bevel, in the Bottom list, under Bevel, select Angle (second row, first option from the left). Next to the Bottom list, in the Width box, enter 11 pt,and in the Height box, enter 5 pt.Also in the FormatShape dialog box, click 3-DRotation in the left pane, and in the 3-DRotation pane, under Rotation, do the following:In the X box, enter 287.8°.In the Y box, enter 297.1°.In the Z box, enter 74.1°.Position this oval (or dish) on the left side of the slide, approximately 2.5 inches below the horizontal round rectangleOn the Home tab, in the Drawing group, click Shapes, and under Lines select Line (first option from the left). On the slide, drag to draw a line from the left edge of the horizontal rectangle to the bottom left edge of the dish.Select the line. On the Home tab, in bottom right corner of the Drawing group, click the FormatShape dialog box launcher. In the FormatShape dialog box, click LineColor in the left pane, and in the LineColor pane do the following:Click Solidline. Click the button next to Color, and then under ThemeColors select White, Background 1, Darker 25% (fourth row, first option from the left).Also in the FormatShape dialog box, click LineStyle in the left pane, and in the LineStyle pane do the following:In the Width box, enter 3.75 pt. In the Dashtype list, select Round Dot (second option). In the Captype list, select Round. In the Jointype list, select Round. Select the line. On the Home tab, in the Clipboard group, click the arrow below Paste and select Duplicate. Select the second line. On the Home tab, in the Drawing group, click Arrange, point to Rotate, and select FlipHorizontal. Position the duplicate line so the top point is at the same position as the top point on the first line. Position the endpoint on the right edge of the dish.On the Home tab, in the Drawing group, click Arrange, and then select Send to Back. Press and hold CTRL and select both lines and the dish. On the Home tab, in the Drawing group, click Arrange, and select Group. Select the group (the two dotted lines and the dish). On the Home tab, in the Clipboard group, click the arrow below Paste and select Duplicate. Position the second group on the right side of the slide.Press and hold CTRL and select both left and right groups. On the Home tab, in the Drawing group, click Arrange, and then do the following:Point to Align, and select AlignSelectedObjects.Point to Align, and select AlignTop.Select Send to Back.To reproduce the animation effects on this slide, do the following:Select top horizontal bar group. On the Animations tab, in the Animations group, click CustomAnimations.In the CustomAnimation task pane, click AddEffect, point to Emphasis and select MoreEffects. In the AddEmphasisEffect dialog box, under Basic, select Spin, and then click OK.In the CustomAnimation task pane, select the animation effect, and then under Modify: Spin,do the following:In the Start list, select WithPrevious.In the Amount list, in the Custom box, enter 10, and then press ENTER. Also in the Amount list, select Clockwise.In the Speed list, select Fast.Click OK.Select the left dish group. In the CustomAnimation task pane, click AddEffect, point to MotionPaths, and select Up.In the CustomAnimation task pane, select the Up motion path, and then under Modify: Up,do the following:In the Start list, select WithPrevious. In the Speed list, select Fast. Click OK.In the CustomAnimation task pane, select the Up motion path effect. On the slide, press and hold the SHIFT key and drag the endpoint (red arrow) down to shorten the motion path to approximately .33” in length. (Note: If needed, zoom in to see the objects. On the View tab, in the Zoom group, click Zoom, and in the Zoom dialog box, in the Percent box enter 200%. After editing, on the View tab, in the Zoom group, click Fit to Window to return to the slide to its original size.)In the CustomAnimation task pane, click the arrow to the right of the Up motion path and select EffectOptions. In the Up dialog box, on the Effect tab, under Settings, clear both SmoothStart and SmoothEnd and then click OK.Select right dish group. In the CustomAnimation task pane, click the arrow next to AddEffect, point to MotionPaths, and select Down.In the CustomAnimation task pane, select the Down motion path, and then under Modify: Down, do the following:In the Start list, select WithPrevious. In the Speed list, select Fast.Click OK. In the CustomAnimation task pane, select the Down motion path. On the slide, press and hold SHIFT and drag the endpoint (red arrow) up to shorten the path to approximately .33” in length.In the CustomAnimation task pane, click the arrow next to the Down motion path and select EffectOptions. In the Down dialog box, on the Effect tab, under Settings, clear SmoothStart, clear SmoothEnd, and then click OK.Select the top horizontal bar group. In the CustomAnimation task pane, click the arrow next to AddEffect, point to Emphasis, and select MoreEffects. In the AddEmphasisEffect dialog box, under Basic, select Spin,and then click OK.In the CustomAnimation task pane, select the second Spin animation effect, and then under Modify: Spin do the following:In the Start list, select OnClick. In the Amount list, in the Custom box, enter 20°, and then press ENTER. Also in the Amount list, select Counterclockwise. In the Speed list, select Fast. Click OK.Select the left dish group. In the CustomAnimation task pane, click AddEffect, point to MotionPaths, and select Down. In the CustomAnimation task pane, select the Down motion path, and then under Modify: Down, do the following:In the Start list, select WithPrevious. In the Speed list, select Fast. Click OK.In the CustomAnimation task pane, select the Down motion path for the right dish. On the slide, press and hold SHIFT and drag the starting point (green arrow) to meet the endpoint (red arrow) from the first up motion path. (Note: If needed, zoom in to see the objects. On the View tab, in the Zoom group, click Zoom, and in the Zoom dialog box, in the Percent box, enter 200%. After editing, on the View tab, in the Zoom group, click Fit to Window to return to the slide to its original size.)On the slide, select the down motion path for the left dish and then drag the endpoint (red arrow) up to shorten the path to approximately .66” in length.In the CustomAnimation task pane, click the arrow next to the down motion path for the left dish, and then select EffectOptions. In the Down dialog box, on the Effect tab, under Settings, clear SmoothStart and SmoothEnd,and then click OK.Select the right dish group. In the CustomAnimation task pane, click AddEffect, point to MotionPath, and select Up.In the CustomAnimation task pane, select the Up motion path for the right dish, and then under Modify: Up,do the following:In the Start list, select WithPrevious.In the Speed list, select Fast.Click OK.In the CustomAnimation task pane, select the Up motion path for the right dish. On the slide, press and hold SHIFT and drag the starting point (green arrow) to meet the endpoint (red arrow) from the first down motion path.On the slide, select the upmotion path for the right dish, and then drag the endpoint (red arrow) up to shorten the path to approximately .66” in length.In the CustomAnimation task pane, click the arrow next to the upmotion path for the right dish and select EffectOptions. In the Up dialog box, on the Effect tab, under Settings, clear SmoothStart and SmoothEnd,and then click OK.To reproduce the background effects on this slide, do the following:Right-click the slide background area, and then click Format Background. In the Format Background dialog box, click Fill in the left pane, select Gradient fill in the right pane, and then do the following:In the Type list, select Linear.In the Direction list, click Linear Down (first row, second option from the left).Under Gradient stops, click Add or Remove until two stops appear in the drop-down list.Also under Gradient stops, customize the gradient stops as follows:Select Stop 1 from the list, and then do the following:In the Stop position box, enter 65%.Click the button next to Color, and then click under ThemeColors select White, Background 1 (first row, the first option from the left).Select Stop 2 from the list, and then do the following: In the Stop position box, enter 96%.Click the button next to Color, and then click under ThemeColors select Black, Text 1, Lighter 50% (second row, the second option from the left).