NJFuture Redevelopment Forum 13 Foreclosures Newman

Lending and Foreclosure in NJ

Kathe Newman, Associate Professor and Director
with
Margaret Ricke,Research Associate
Ralph W. Voorhees Center for Civic Engagement
Urban Planning and Policy Development
Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy
Rutgers University

March 2013

Tuesday, March 5, 13

SUSSEX

High-Cost Home Mortgage
Originations PASSAIC

New Jersey, 2005-2006 BERGEN

MORRIS

WARREN

ESSEX

HUDSON

UNION

Share of High-Cost Loans by Census Tract HUNTERDON
MIDDLESEX

SOMERSET

Less than 10%

10% to 25% MERCER MONMOUTH

25% to 50% BURLINGTON

Greater than 50%
CAMDEN

NJ Counties GLOUCESTER OCEAN

SALEM

ATLANTIC

CUMBERLAND

±
CAPE MAY

Source: FFIEC, Home Mortgage Disclosure Act
New Jersey Geographic Information Network 0 5 10 20
Miles


Foreclosure Starts


Consumers with New Foreclosures 2003-Q3 2012
1.00# New NJ#
Jersey
0.25#

0.90#
0.20#

0.15#
0.80#
AZ#
0.10#

0.70# CA#
0.05# FL#
0.60# IL#
0.00#

MI#
03:Q1#

04:Q1#

05:Q1#

06:Q1#

07:Q1#

08:Q1#

09:Q1#

10:Q1#

11:Q1#

12:Q1#
03:Q2#
03:Q3#
03:Q4#

04:Q2#
04:Q3#
04:Q4#

05:Q2#
05:Q3#
05:Q4#

06:Q2#
06:Q3#
06:Q4#

07:Q2#
07:Q3#
07:Q4#

08:Q2#
08:Q3#
08:Q4#

09:Q2#
09:Q3#
09:Q4#

10:Q2#
10:Q3#
10:Q4#

11:Q2#
11:Q3#
11:Q4#

12:Q2#
12:Q3#
0.50# NJ#
NV#
0.40#
NY#
OH#
0.30#
PA#
TX#
0.20#
ALL#

0.10#
New Jersey

0.00#
03:Q1#
03:Q2#
03:Q3#
03:Q4#
04:Q1#
04:Q2#
04:Q3#
04:Q4#
05:Q1#
05:Q2#
05:Q3#
05:Q4#
06:Q1#
06:Q2#
06:Q3#
06:Q4#
07:Q1#
07:Q2#
07:Q3#
07:Q4#
08:Q1#
08:Q2#
08:Q3#
08:Q4#
09:Q1#
09:Q2#
09:Q3#
09:Q4#
10:Q1#
10:Q2#
10:Q3#
10:Q4#
11:Q1#
11:Q2#
11:Q3#
11:Q4#
12:Q1#
12:Q2#
12:Q3#
New York Federal Reserve Bank Household Debt and Credit Report FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel, 5% sample of people with credit reports using Equifax expanding with household
characteristics the NY Fed collects http://www.newyorkfed.org/householdcredit/data_dictionary_HHDC.pdf


NJ: Number of Foreclosure Filings
2005-2012

!80,000!!

!70,000!!
!66,717!!

!60,000!! !58,445!!

!51,623!!
Number'of'Foreclosure'Filings'

!50,000!!

Total!Filings!

!40,000!! Residen;al!
!36,360!!
Commercial!

!30,896!! Condo!
!30,000!! Tax!
!24,857!!

!20,253!!
!20,000!!

!11,037!!
!10,000!!

!-!!
2005! 2006! 2007! 2008! 2009! 2010! 2011! 2012!
Foreclosure'Filing'Year'
Moratorium applied Dec 2010

Moratorium lifted August 2011
NJ Administrative Oﬃce of the Courts, Foreclosure Division Accessible from
NJ Division of Banking http://www.state.nj.us/dobi/division_banking/aoc_foreclosurestats.pdf

NJ: Number of Foreclosure Filings by Type of Filing
2006-2012
100%#

90%#

80%#

70%#

60%#
Tax#
50%#
Condo#

40%# Commercial#

Residen<al#
30%#

20%#

10%#

0%#
2006# 2007# 2008# 2009# 2010# 2011# 2012#
Filing'Year'
Moratorium applied Dec 2010

Moratorium lifted August 2011
NJ Administrative Oﬃce of the Courts, Foreclosure Division Accessible from
NJ Division of Banking http://www.state.nj.us/dobi/division_banking/aoc_foreclosurestats.pdf

Metro Areas: Highest Foreclosure Rate
September 2012

• Of 100 largest U.S. metro areas as of September 2012

Metro Foreclosure
Metro Prime Subprime
Rank Rate
Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton 2nd 17% 10% 46%

Atlantic City-Hammonton 14th 13% 10% 44%

Trenton-Ewing 27th 10% 7% 39%

Ocean City 73rd 7% 5% 40%

Foreclosure-Response.org summary of LPS Applied Analytics data with some modiﬁcations to adjust for undercoverage March 2011. LPS analysis available here: : http://
www.foreclosure-response.org/maps_and_data/metro_delinquency_data_tables.html Seriously delinquent loans are measured as loans that are 90 days or more delinquent or in
foreclosure. Analysis includes ﬁrst liens.

Foreclosure Rate
Metropolitan Statistical Area
September 2012
New Jersey
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ

New York-Northern New
Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA

Total Foreclosure Rate
Less than 6%
6% to 8% Trenton-Ewing, NJ

8% to 10%
Greater than 10%

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ

Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, NJ

Ocean City, NJ

Source: LPS data analyzed by LISC, www.foreclosure-response.org

± 0 5 10 20 30 40
Miles

Prime Foreclosure Rate
September 2012
New Jersey


Prime Foreclosure Rate
Less than 4%

5% to 6%
Greater than 6%




Ocean City, NJ


± 0 5 10 20 30 40
Miles

Subprime Foreclosure Rate
September 2012
New Jersey


Subprime Foreclosure Rate
Less than 25%

30% to 35%
Greater than 35%




Ocean City, NJ


± 0 5 10 20 30 40
Miles

NJ Counties: Residential Foreclosure Filings by Year Filed
2006-2012

30000"

25000"

20000"

TOTAL"12"

TOTAL"11"
15000"
TOTAL"10"

TOTAL"09"

TOTAL"08"

TOTAL"07"
10000"
TOTAL"06"

5000"

0"
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County'Where'the'Property'Is'Located'

NJ Administrative Oﬃce of the Courts, Foreclosure Division Accessible from NJ Division of Banking http://www.state.nj.us/dobi/division_banking/aoc_foreclosurestats.pdf

Foreclosure Starts 2006 - 2012 SUSSEX

New Jersey
PASSAIC

MORRIS BERGEN

WARREN

Residential Foreclosure Starts 2006
ESSEX

Less than 1,000 HUDSON

1,000 - 2,000 UNION

HUNTERDON
2,000 - 3,000
SOMERSET

3,000 - 5,000 MIDDLESEX

More than 5,000
MERCER MONMOUTH

NJ Counties

BURLINGTON

OCEAN

CAMDEN

GLOUCESTER

SALEM

ATLANTIC

CUMBERLAND

±
CAPE MAY

Source: Administrative Office of the Courts, New Jersey State Courts
0 5 10 20
Miles



New Jersey
PASSAIC

MORRIS BERGEN

WARREN

ESSEX


1,000 - 2,000 UNION

HUNTERDON
2,000 - 3,000
SOMERSET

3,000 - 5,000 MIDDLESEX

More than 5,000
MERCER MONMOUTH

NJ Counties

BURLINGTON

OCEAN

CAMDEN

GLOUCESTER

SALEM

ATLANTIC

CUMBERLAND

±
CAPE MAY

0 5 10 20
Miles


Seriously Delinquent


Percent of Mortgage Debt 90+ Days Delinquent, 120+ Days
Delinquent, or Severely Derogatory
2003-2012 3Q
30.00#

25.00# Nevada

AZ#
CA#
20.00#
Florida FL#
IL#
MI#
15.00# NJ#

New NV#
Jersey NY#
OH#
10.00#
PA#
TX#
ALL#
5.00#

0.00#
03:Q1#
03:Q2#
03:Q3#
03:Q4#
04:Q1#
04:Q2#
04:Q3#
04:Q4#
05:Q1#
05:Q2#
05:Q3#
05:Q4#
06:Q1#
06:Q2#
06:Q3#
06:Q4#
07:Q1#
07:Q2#
07:Q3#
07:Q4#
08:Q1#
08:Q2#
08:Q3#
08:Q4#
09:Q1#
09:Q2#
09:Q3#
09:Q4#
10:Q1#
10:Q2#
10:Q3#
10:Q4#
11:Q1#
11:Q2#
11:Q3#
11:Q4#
12:Q1#
12:Q2#
12:Q3#
New York Federal Reserve Bank Household Debt and Credit Report FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel, 5% sample of people with credit reports using Equifax expanding with household
characteristics the NY Fed collects http://www.newyorkfed.org/householdcredit/data_dictionary_HHDC.pdf


Metro Areas: 90+ days delinquent
(not yet in foreclosure)

• Of 100 metro areas in the U.S. with the largest increase in 90+ day delinquencies Sept 12

Metro Metro Rank 90+ Days Delinquent

Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton 1st 9%

Atlantic City-Hammonton 7th 6%

Trenton-Ewing 29th 4%

Foreclosure-Response.org summary of LPS Applied Analytics data with some modifications to adjust for undercoverage Sept 2012. LPS analysis available here: http://www.foreclosure-
response.org/maps_and_data/metro_delinquency_data_tables.html. Seriously delinquent loans are measured as first liens that are 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure. Seriously
delinquent rate is measured as 90+ delinquent share of all first lien mortgages.

Metro Areas: Serious Delinquency Sept 11- Sept 12
(90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure)

• Of the top 25 largest U.S. metro areas - September 2012 compared with September 2011

90+ Days Delinquent or in
Metro Metro Rank
Foreclosure Sept 11-Sept 12

Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton 1st 26%

Atlantic City-Hammonton 2nd 19%

Trenton-Ewing 6th 14%

Foreclosure-Response.org summary of LPS Applied Analytics data with some modiﬁcations to adjust for undercoverage March 2012. LPS analysis available here: http://www.foreclosure-
response.org/maps_and_data/metro_delinquency_data_tables.html 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure. Analysis includes ﬁrst liens.

Serious Delinquency Rate
December 2009
New Jersey


Less than 10%

12% to 14%
Greater than 14%




90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure in the last month Ocean City, NJ


± 0 5 10 20 30 40
Miles

September 2011
New Jersey


Less than 10%

12% to 14%
Greater than 14%




90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure in the last month
Ocean City, NJ


± 0 5 10 20 30 40
Miles

September 2012
New Jersey


Less than 10%

12% to 14%
Greater than 14%




90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure in the last month
Ocean City, NJ


± 0 5 10 20 30 40
Miles

NJ: Loan Modifications and Workouts Reported by the
Federal HAMP Program
40,000"

35,000"

30,000"

25,000" AcAve"or"
Number'of'Modfica/ons'

Permanent"
ModificaAons"

20,000" AcAve"Trials"

15,000"
Permanent"
ModificaAons"

10,000"

5,000"

0"
Oct,09"

Dec,09"

Dec,10"

Dec,11"
Nov,09"

Jan,10"
Feb,10"
Mar,10"
Apr,10"

Jul,10"

Sep,10"

Jan,11"
Feb,11"
Mar,11"
Apr,11"
May,11"
Jun,11"
Jul,11"
Aug,11"
Sep,11"
Oct,11"
Nov,11"

Jan,12"
Feb,12"
Mar,12"
Apr,12"

Jul,12"

Dec,12"
Sep,12"
Nov,10"

Nov,12"
Oct,10"

Oct,12"
May,10"

May,12"
Aug,10"

Aug,12"
Jun,10"

Jun,12"
Making Home Affordable. Servicer Performance Report Through December 2012. As of Feb 2013 http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/financial-stability/reports/
Pages/Making-Home-Affordable-Program-Performance-Report.aspx http://portal.hud.gov/portal/page/portal/HUD/initiatives/Housing%20Scorecard

House Price Change


NJ Counties Year-to-Year House Price Change
30.0%&

Cape May
25.0%& Hunterdon&
Cape May
Hudson Hudson
Atlan5c&
Atlantic
Bergen&
20.0%& Atlantic Salem Burlington&
Home$Price$Decline$Year$to$Year$CoreLogic$House$Price$Indices$Via$NY$Fed$

Camden&
15.0%& Cape&May&
Cumberland&
Cumberland Essex&
10.0%&
Gloucester&
Hudson&
5.0%& Mercer&
Middlesex&
Monmouth&
0.0%&
Morris&
2003$ 2004$ 2005$ 2006$ 2007$ 2008$ 2009$ 2010$ 2011$ 2012$
Ocean&
!5.0%& Passaic&
Salem&
Cape May Somerset&
!10.0%&
Sussex&
Salem
Passaic Union&
!15.0%& Warren&
Atlantic Salem

!20.0%&

New York Federal Reserve Bank. Feb 2013 based on NY Fed CoreLogic House Price Indices. http://www.newyorkfed.org/home-price-index/#


SUSSEX

Change in Home Prices
New Jersey PASSAIC

January 2002 - January 2003 BERGEN

MORRIS

WARREN

ESSEX

HUDSON

Percent Change in Home Prices
-25% to -20% UNION

-20% to -15% MIDDLESEX
HUNTERDON
SOMERSET
-15% to -10%

-10% to -5%

-5% to 0% MERCER MONMOUTH

0% to 5%
BURLINGTON
5% to 10%

10% to 15%
CAMDEN

15% to 20%
GLOUCESTER OCEAN

20% to 25%

SALEM

ATLANTIC

CUMBERLAND

±
CAPE MAY

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2013
0 5 10 20
Miles


NJFuture Redevelopment Forum 13 Foreclosures Newman

NJFuture Redevelopment Forum 13 Foreclosures Newman

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