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Chapter 05_How Do Risk and Term Structure Affect Interest Rate?

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Rusman Mukhlis
Rusman Mukhlis
EducaçãoEconomia e finançasNegócios
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Chapter 5 How Do The Risk and Term Structure Affect Interest Rates
Chapter Preview ,[object Object],[object Object]
Chapter Preview ,[object Object]
Chapter Preview ,[object Object]
Chapter Preview ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Risk Structure of Interest Rates ,[object Object],[object Object]
Risk Structure of Long Bonds in the U.S.
Risk Structure of Long Bonds in the U.S. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Factors Affecting Risk Structure of Interest Rates ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Default Risk Factor ,[object Object],[object Object]
Default Risk Factor (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object]
Increase in Default Risk on Corporate Bonds
Analysis of Figure 5.2: Increase in Default on Corporate Bonds ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Default Risk Factor (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Bond Ratings
Case: Enron and the Baa-Aaa spread ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Liquidity Factor ,[object Object],[object Object]
Decrease in Liquidity of Corporate Bonds Figure 5.2 Response to a Decrease in the Liquidity of Corporate Bonds
Analysis of Figure 5.1: Corporate Bond Becomes Less Liquid ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Liquidity Factor (cont.) ,[object Object]
Income Taxes Factor ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Income Taxes Factor ,[object Object],[object Object]
Income Taxes Factor ,[object Object],[object Object]
Tax Advantages of Municipal Bonds
Analysis of Figure 5.3: Tax Advantages of Municipal Bonds ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Case: Bush Tax Cut and Interest Rates ,[object Object],[object Object]
Term Structure of Interest Rates ,[object Object],[object Object]
The WSJ: Following the News ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Reading the Wall St. Journal Dynamic yield curve that can show the curve at any time in history http://stockcharts.com/charts/YieldCurve.html
Term Structure Facts to Be Explained ,[object Object],[object Object]
Interest Rates on Different Maturity Bonds Move Together
Term Structure Facts to Be Explained ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Three Theories of Term Structure ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Expectations Theory ,[object Object],[object Object]
Expectations Theory ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Expectations Theory ,[object Object],[object Object]
Expectations Theory ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Expectations Theory ,[object Object],Since ( i 2 t ) 2 is extremely small, expected return is approximately 2( i 2 t )
Expectations Theory ,[object Object],[object Object],Solving for i 2 t (1)
Expectations Theory ,[object Object]
More generally for n -period bond… ,[object Object],(2)
More generally for n -period bond… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Expectations Theory and Term Structure Facts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Expectations Theory and Term Structure Facts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Expectations Theory and Term Structure Facts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Expectations Theory and Term Structure Facts ,[object Object],[object Object]
Market Segmentation Theory ,[object Object],[object Object]
Market Segmentation Theory ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Liquidity Premium Theory ,[object Object],[object Object]
Liquidity Premium Theory ,[object Object]
Liquidity Premium Theory ,[object Object],(3) ,[object Object]
Liquidity Premium Theory
Numerical Example ,[object Object],[object Object]
Numerical Example ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Liquidity Premium Theory: Term Structure Facts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Market Predictions of Future Short Rates
Evidence on the Term Structure ,[object Object],[object Object]
Case: Interpreting Yield Curves ,[object Object],[object Object]
Case: Interpreting Yield Curves, 1980–2008
Case: Interpreting Yield Curves ,[object Object],[object Object]
Case: Interpreting Yield Curves ,[object Object]
Mini-case: The Yield Curve as a Forecasting Tool ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Practicing Manager: Forecasting Interest Rates with the Term Structure ,[object Object],Solve for forward rate, i e t+1 (4) Numerical example: i 1t = 5%, i 2t = 5.5%
Forecasting Interest Rates with the Term Structure ,[object Object],Using i e t+1 derived in (4), solve for i e t+2
Forecasting Interest Rates with the Term Structure ,[object Object],Liquidity Premium Theory: i nt - = same as pure expectations theory; replace i nt by i nt - in (5) to get adjusted forward-rate forecast (5) (6)
Forecasting Interest Rates with the Term Structure ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Loan rate must be > 8.2%
Chapter Summary ,[object Object],[object Object]

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