Higher education has become a major global industry. The most striking dimension of this internationalisation has been the rise in the number of students studying at universities outside their own country. The equally rapid increase in the number of students studying for a foreign degree without leaving their home country has, however, attracted less attention. UNESCO defines this form of transnational education (TNE) as ‘all types of higher education study programmes, sets of study courses, or educational services (including those of distance education) in which the learners are located in a country different from the one where the awarding institution is based’. For some countries, notably the UK, there are now more foreign students studying for awards offshore than studying on-campus in the UK. This presentation provides an overview of the types of TNE activity and discusses the broad trends and developments in this rapidly evolving, and largely unregulated, international market. QS Asia-Pacific Professional Leaders in Education (QS-APPLE) 8th Annual Conference, Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia, November 2012

1. Overview of the global
market in transnational
education
8th QS-APPLE Annual Conference
15 November 2012
Professor Nigel Healey
Pro-Vice-Chancellor (International)
Nottingham Trent University

2. Overview
• What is transnational education?
• Trends in transnational education
• Drivers of transnational education
• The challenges ahead for transnational education
19 November 2012 2

3. What is transnational education?
• ―Any teaching or learning activity in which the students are in a
different country to that in which the institutional providing the
education is based‖ (Global Alliance for Transnational Education,
1997)
• ―all types of higher education study programmes, sets of study
courses, or educational services (including those of distance
education) in which the learners are located in a country different
from the one where the awarding institution is based‖ (Council of
Europe, 2002)
19 November 2012 3

4. General Agreement on Trade in Services
(GATS) and international trade in services
Mode 1 — Cross border From the territory of one Member
supply into the territory of any other
Member
Mode 2 — Consumption In the territory of one Member to
abroad the service consumer of any
other Member
Mode 3 — Commercial By a service supplier of one
presence Member, through commercial
presence, in the territory of any
other Member
Mode 4 — Presence of By a service supplier of one
natural persons Member, through the presence of
natural persons of a Member in
the territory of any other Member
19 November 2012 4

5. General Agreement on Trade in Services
(GATS) and transnational education
Mode 1 — Cross border Programme mobility: distance or
supply on-line education
Mode 2 — Consumption Student mobility: export
abroad education
Mode 3 — Commercial Institutional mobility: franchise/
presence validated partner and
International Branch Campuses
Mode 4 — Presence of Staff mobility: fly-in/fly-out
natural persons programmes
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6. Blurring and overlap in transnational
education
Mode 1 — Mode 2 —
Programme Blended Student
mobility mobility
2+1
Mode 3 — Mode 4 —
IBC Staff mobility
Institutional
mobility
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7. How big is transnational education?
• Host countries typically require foreign providers to register
and report enrolments
• This only gives a partial view of the global market
• Few countries require reporting of transnational activities by
their own universities
• The UK and Australia both require reporting by their
universities, and quality assure their foreign activities
• Use UK data to provide an insight into the scale of the market
19 November 2012 7

8. Mode 2: Students studying on campus at
English HEIs (2010/11)
Level of provision
Postgraduate Undergraduate Total
UK 316,265 1,429,795 1,746,065
Other EU 40,855 61,845 102,700
Non-EU 134,270 114,185 248,455
Total 491,395 1,605,825 2,097,215
19 November 2012 8
Source: HESA

9. Modes 1, 3 and 4: Students studying wholly
overseas at UK HEIs (2010/11)
Level of provision
Post- First Other
graduate degree UG Total
Students registered at a 74,135 127,030 10,745 212,046
UK HEI
Students studying for an 14,660 274,970 2,055 291,745
award of a UK HEI
Total 88,795 402,000 12,800 503,795
Total non-UK on campus = 351,155
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Source: HESA

10. Transnational education by type of delivery
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
Overseas campus 7,120 9,885 11,410 12,305
Distance, flexible and
distributed learning 100,345 112,345 114,985 113,065
Other students registered at
HEI 59,895 68,595 74,360 86,630
Overseas partner
organisation 29,240 197,185 207,790 291,575
Other students studying
overseas for HEI's award 70 35 50 125
Total 196,670 388,045 408,595 503,700
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Source: HESA/SIEM

11. Caveat 1: the Oxford Brookes effect
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
Oxford Brookes
870 163,295 162,045 239,945
University
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Source: HESA

12. What do I need to do to be awarded the BSc
degree at Oxford Brookes?
To be awarded the BSc (Hons) in Applied Accounting you must:
• be registered with Oxford Brookes University ie have opted in to the
BSc degree scheme before passing any of the three ACCA
Fundamentals papers, F7, F8 and F9
• successfully complete all nine Fundamentals level papers
• complete the ACCA Professional Ethics module
• complete and pass the Oxford Brookes University Research and
Analysis Project
• To submit the Research and Analysis Project in the May and
November submission periods, please refer to RAP submission dates.
• The degree must be completed within 10 years of your initial
registration onto ACCA's professional qualification.
19 November 2012 Source: http://www.accaglobal.com/en/help/oxford- 12
brookes.html

13. So how big is transnational education for the
UK without Oxford Brookes?
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
Overseas campus 7,120 9,885 11,410 12,305
Distance, flexible and
distributed learning 100,345 112,345 114,985 113,065
Other students registered at
HEI 59,895 68,595 74,360 86,630
Overseas partner
organisation 28,370 33,890 45,745 51,630
Other students studying
overseas for HEI's award 70 35 50 125
Total 195,800 224,750 246,550 263,755
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Source: HESA/SIEM

14. Caveat 2
• ―the Aggregate offshore record should be collected in respect of
students studying (to date) wholly outside the UK who are either
registered with the reporting institution or who are studying for an
award of the reporting institution‖
http://www.hesa.ac.uk/component/option,com_studrec/task,show_f
ile/Itemid,233/mnl,11052/href,coverage.html/
• The data do not include students in validated centres studying for
UK awards, unless they are registered as students
19 November 2012 14
Source: HESA

15. Transnational education as government
policy
• TNE is one of the ―great growth industries of the future‖
• ―increasingly, emerging economies want to educate their
students at home, and the UK – a global pioneer in
developing educational facilities – is well placed to help…We
not only have strengths in teaching and research but in
design and construction of universities, mobilising finance,
curriculum development, qualification accreditation and
quality assurance‖
(David Willetts, UK Minister for Universities and Science,
April 2012)
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16. The drivers of demand for transnational
education
– Per capita GDP:
• Ability to pay
• Need for education in an advanced knowledge economy
– Population in 18-30 age group
– Capacity and quality of domestic higher education
– TNE is mainly ‗demand-absorbing‘
– TNE is presently mostly in Asia
• Fastest economic growth
• Rapid population growth
• Domestic higher education capacity has lagged demand growth and
been lower quality than in OECD
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17. Projected per capita GDP (US$ PPP at 2006
prices)
19 November 2012 Source: PWC, The world in 2050 - Beyond the BRICs: a 17
broader look at emerging market growth prospects

18. Continuing population growth: five of the world‘s
seven most populous countries are in Asia
19 November 2012 Source: United Nations Population Fund 18

19. By 2020, 50% of the world‘s 18-22 year olds
will be from four Asian countries
19 November 2012 Source: United Nations Population Fund 19

20. But changing shape of the population
pyramid for Asia: 1990 (left) vs 2010
19 November 2012 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic 20
and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat

21. A closer look at the university age
demographics
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22. Capacity and quality of domestic higher
education
• Participation rates rising to OECD levels (helped by
demographic slowdown in 18-22 year olds)
• Policy focus shifting from quantity to quality: advent of new
quality assurance regimes
• Explicit policies to internationalise universities
• Governments concentrating funding for research on tier of
elite universities to create ―world-class‖ universities
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23. Gross tertiary enrolment rates*
19 November 2012 * Includes international students 23
Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics

24. Quality Assurance
Asian rankings of strength of quality assurance regime
Score/10
1 Hong Kong 7.2
2 China 5.6
3= Indonesia 5.0
3= Malaysia 5.0
5 South Korea 3.9
6 Thailand 3.3
7 Singapore 2.8
8 Japan 2.2
9 Vietnam 0.6
Source: British Council

25. Asian vs world quality assurance
Rankings of strength of quality assurance regime Score/10
1 Australia 9.4
2 Germany 8.9
3 UK 8.3
4 France 7.8
=5 Hong Kong 7.2
=5 Netherlands 7.2
7 China 5.6
=8 Indonesia 5.0
=8 Malaysia 5.0
=8 US 5.0
11 Russia 4.4
12 South Korea 3.9
=13 Thailand 3.3
=13 UAE 3.3
=15 Nigeria 2.8
=15 Singapore 2.8
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Source: British Council

26. Internationalising Asian higher education
• Motives for internationalisation:
– Development aid (Colombo Plan)
– Project language and culture (soft diplomacy)
– Export education (commercial)
– Attract skilled immigrants
– Strengthen teaching and research on campus through the
presence of foreign scholars
• All main Asian countries have ambitious targets to attract
international students to their domestic higher education
systems
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27. Building world-class universities (1)
• China
– 2,358 universities
– 22.3m undergraduates, 1.5m postgraduates (MoE, 2011/12)
• Project 211: started 1995
– 113 universities
– Train 80% PhDs, 66% PGT, 50% of international students, host 96% of
research laboratories
• Project 985: started 1998
– Chinese ―Ivy League‖
– Initially C9 League, now 39 universities
• Goals:
– To make Peking and Tsinghua ―top university‖
– To make 8 universities ―world-class‖
– To make remaining 29 universities ―well-known internationally‖
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28. Building world-class universities (2)
• Korea
– World Class University‘ (WCU) project launched in 2008
– Government-funded to bring international scholars to Korea and set up
new programmes
– KoreaBrain21 to create 10 world class, research-oriented universities
• Thailand
– Second 15-Year Long Range Plan on Higher Education
– Focus resources on nine national research universities
• Japan
– A Policy for the Structural Reform of Universities, 2002: 21st Century
Centres of Excellence Programme
– Now Global COE Programme: targeted support to the creation of world-
standard research and education bases (centres of excellence)
– Based on discipline areas, not whole universities
19 November 2012 28

29. Building world-class universities (3)
• Malaysia
– National Higher Education Strategic Plan 2011-15
– 6 Research Universities
– 20 world class Centres of Excellence (CoE)
– One or two APEX Universities among existing IHEs
– Three IHEs among the top 100 and one in the top 50 of world renowned
universities
• Singapore
– Has bilateral system of polytechnics/institutes of technical education vs
four public universities
– Research funding concentrates on NUS and NTU
– Uses foreign universities to absorb additional demand for places
• Taiwan
– Development Plan for World-Class Universities and Research Centers of
Excellence
19 November 2012 29

30. Conclusions (1)
• Transnational education is big business for…
• …but the data are still not reliable
• To date, transnational education has been mainly focused on
Asia, driven by:
– High economic growth
– Rapid population growth (in 18-22 year old range)
– Lack of capacity and quality in domestic higher education sector
• Looking ahead, transnational education will become a
tougher market in Asia as:
– Demographics reduce demand
– Capacity and quality of Asian universities improve and…
– …tougher quality assurance regimes impact Western providers
– Evidence that some franchise activity is being scaled back
19 November 2012 30

31. Conclusions (2)
• The traditional principal-agent (university-foreign private
college) model may have limited life span in Asia
• Activity may switch to other emerging markets in Africa and
LatAm…
• …and some new hubs where government policy is to draw in
foreign providers, notably Dubai and Qatar
• Continued TNE in Asia likely to be concentrated on IBCs
rather than franchising, but this may be a limited market
19 November 2012 31