1. Introduction to Empirical Food
& Nutrition Security Analysis

2. Outline
• Concept
• Dimensions & Policy Options
• State of Food Insecurity Today
• Global Hunger Index
• Bangladesh Scenario
• Contemporary Policy Questions
• Course Structure
Food Security Introduction 2

3. Food Security
The World Food Summit in 1996: “Food security exists
when all people, at all times, have physical, social
and economic access to sufficient, safe and
nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and
food preferences for an active and healthy life.”
Food Security Introduction 3

4. Food Security: Four Dimensions
• Access
• Availability
• Stabilization
• Utilization
Food Security Introduction 4

5. Food Security: Policy Options
(i) Increase food availability by (a) imports, (b) increased food production
by modern technology/expansion of area under cultivation, (c)
depleting stocks, (d) efficient market infrastructure, (e) land
redistribution;
(ii) Promote household/individual access to food by increasing
entitlements (subsidies) or endowments (income transfers/asset
redistribution/school feeding/nutrition programme);
(iii) Better utilization of food by education and general environment like
access to safe drinking water and sanitation.
Food Security Introduction 5

6. State of Food Insecurity

7. Food Insecurity
• A major problem facing developing countries.
• World: Number and percentage of undernourished
persons
 2006-2008 - 850million (13%)
 2000-2002 - 836million (14%)
 1995-1997 - 792million (14%)
 1990-1992 - 848million (16%)
 1979-1981 - 853million (21%)
 1969-1971 - 878million (26%)
Source: http://www.fao.org/hunger/en/
Food Security Introduction 7

8. Number of hungry people, 1969-2010
Source: FAO
Food Security Introduction 8

9. Number of Hungry in the world: 925
million in 2010
Food Security Introduction 9

10. Global Hunger Index
IFPRI Index
Source: IFPRI

11. Global Hunger Index
Objectives:
• Rank countries.
• Compare international experience for policy
guidance.
• Draw global attention.
Food Security Introduction 11

12. Global Hunger Index
• Sample:
• Based on 120 developing and transitional countries;
• Compares 88 only.
• Three indicators
• Un-weighted average as an index
Food Security Introduction 12

13. Indicators
# Indicator Purpose to measure
1 % of calorie deficient / Hunger
under-nourished population
2 % children underweight U5 Malnutrition of
children, the most
vulnerable to hunger
3 U5 mortality rate (%) Child deaths caused
by malnutrition &
disease
Food Security Introduction 13

14. Hunger Index Scale
Index Classification Color Code
≥ 30.0 Extremely alarming
20.0 – 29.9 Alarming
10.0 – 19.9 Serious
5.0 – 9.9 Moderate hunger
≤ 4.9 Low hunger
Food Security Introduction 14

15. Country Classification: n= 120
7
32 E xtremely alarming
26
Alarming
S erious
Moderate
L ow hunger
23
32
Food Security Introduction 15

16. Global Trends: 1990 - 2008
• Hunger (Global index): decreased by less than
one-fifth
 1990: 18.7
 2008: 15.2
• Performance by indicator
 % underweight children: declined by 5.9 points
Food Security Introduction 16

17. Regional Profile: 2008
• Status: Alarming
 Sub-Saharan Africa: 23.3
 South Asia: 23.0
• Ten countries (highest levels of hunger); nine are
in Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Ten best performers since 1990: None from Sub-
Saharan Africa.
Food Security Introduction 17

18. Country Profiles
Best score Mauritius, followed by Jamaica, Moldova, Cuba, and
Peru
Worst score Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), followed by
Eritrea, Burundi, Niger, and Sierra Leone
Most progress Kuwait, Peru, Syrian Arab Republic, Turkey, and
Mexico
Regress DRC, North Korea, Swaziland, Guinea-Bissau, and
Zimbabwe
Food Security Introduction 18

19. Country Profiles
Highest proportion of Eritrea: 75%
population with calorie DRC: 74%
deficiency
Highest prevalence of India, Yemen, and Timor-
underweight children Leste: more than 40%
(a measure of malnutrition)
Highest child mortality Sierra Leone: 27%
(under 5) rate Angola: 26%
Source: IFPRI Food Security Introduction 19

20. Poverty Profile
Food Security Introduction 20

21. Where Do The
Poor Live?
Food Security Introduction
Food Security: Introduction 21

22. Global Index Scale
Index Classification Color Code
≥ 30.0 Extremely alarming
20.0 – 29.9 Alarming
10.0 – 19.9 Serious
5.0 – 9.9 Moderate hunger
≤ 4.9 Low hunger
Food Security Introduction 22

23. 2008 Global Hunger Index
Source; IFPRI
Food Security Introduction 23

24. Progress – Regress
Source; IFPRI
Food Security Introduction 24

25. GHI-Winners and Losers: 1990 – 2008
Source: IFPRI
Food Security Introduction 25

26. GHI-Winners and Losers: 1990 – 2011
Source: IFPRI
Food Security Introduction 26

27. GHI: Progress in South, East and
Southeast Asia
Food Security Introduction 27

28. Bangladesh: Food Security Scenario
http://www.usaid.gov/bd/programs/food_sec.html
• Nearly self-sufficient in rice; Food security an elusive goal:
• About 43% of children under-five stunted;
– Cause: Malnourishment due to poor feeding habits & lack of access
to nutritious foods.
• Lack of diversity in diet: 75% of calories from rice.
• Decline in agricultural growth rate : 4.7% in the late 1990’s to
2.8% by 2008.
• Agriculture: Employs 80% population generates 22% of GDP
• Bangladesh’s arable area: 37% ; natural disasters can affect
30% of this land.
Food Security Introduction 28

29. Bangladesh: Policy Priorities
Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010
1. Agricultural Growth and Productivity of Crops, and
Adaptation to Climate Change
2. Development of Fisheries and Livestock Sectors
3. Agricultural Marketing, Price Stabilization, Value Chain, and
Global/Regional Trade
4. Income Growth, Social Safety Nets, and Public Food
Distribution
5. Food Utilization and Nutrition Security
6. Cross-Cutting Issues: Governance and Gender
Food Security Introduction 29

30. Contemporary Policy Questions
1. What is the state of food insecurity today?
2. If the entire subsidy regime were to be reformed as part of the economic reform
programme, what would be the macroeconomic and distributional
consequences?
3. What are the different policy roles that a food subsidy prorgramme can play?
What is the international evidence?
4. How far an income transfer programme like food stamps is feasible in developing
countries like Bangladesh and India? What is the international experience?
5. How far did Bangladesh succeed in dealing with the 1979 famine? How useful is
the information base for policy formulation and implementation?
6. What are the effective alternatives to the ‘Food for Work Programme in
Bangladesh’?
7. What is the impact of commodity price volatility on nutritional intake of poor
households in Bangladesh?
Food Security Introduction 30

31. Course Structure
• Addresses issues related to food & nutrition
security within a quantitative framework.
 It raises issues within a quantitative framework;
 Describes appropriate statistical tools for analysis;
 Illustrates its application with reference to published studies
/ exercises based on sample data sets; and
 Interprets results and examines policy implications.
Food Security Introduction 31

32. Thank You

33. Supplementary Information

34. Food Security Introduction 34

35. Food Security Introduction 35

36. Food Security Introduction 36

37. Food Security Introduction 37

38. Food Security Introduction 38

39. Food Security Introduction 39

40. Food Security Introduction 40

41. Bangladesh: A Food Security Profile
Food Security Introduction 41

42. Bangladesh: Economic Indicators
Total Population (millions) - 2009 (WB) 162.221
Population growth rate - 2009 (WB) 1%
GNI per capita, $ PPP - 2009 (WB) 1550
Population below 1$ PPP per day - 2005 49 %
(MDGI)
Rural population - 2009 (WB) 72 %
Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) - 18
2009 (WB)
Food Security Introduction 42

43. Bangladesh: Health Indicators
Pop. with sustainable access to improved 53%
sanitation - 2008 (WHO)
Life expectancy at birth (years) both 65%
genders - 2008 (WHO) 65
Pop. with access to improved drinking 80%
water sources - 2008 (WHO)
Prevalence of HIV among adults aged >= 0.05%
15 years - 2009 (WHO) 0.05%
Food Security Introduction 43

44. Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNS
Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010
1. Integrated research and extension to
develop sustainable responses to climate
change .
2. Improved water management and
infrastructure for irrigation purposes.
3. Increased supply and sustainable use
of agricultural inputs.
Food Availability 4. Development of the fisheries sector.
5. Development of the livestock sector.
6. Improved access to markets, improved
agricultural value added, increased
nonfarm incomes.
Food Security Introduction 44

45. Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNS
Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010
7. Enhanced capacity
strengthening to formulate
and implement food policies
Food Access and related investments.
8. Enhanced public food-
management systems.
9. Development of an
integrated, multiyear safety
net program.
Food Security Introduction 45

46. Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNS
Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010
10. Implementation of
community-based nutrition
activities through livelihood
approaches.
Food Utilization 11. Updated food consumption
and food composition data
and behavioral change
communication on dietary
diversification.
12. Improved food safety and
quality.
Food Security Introduction 46