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1.
ICBC (Macau) –
Center for Investment and Risk Analytics 中國工商銀行(澳門) – 投資及風險研究中心 投資新思維 刊登日期:2009 年 9 月 14 日 (市民日報) 作者為中國工商銀行(澳門)分析員黃碩東 增長股之迷 股價上升最大動力是源於盈利增長.今期本欄將分析一些增長股.看看公司的營業 額及盈利增長與股價走勢的關係,以作為學習的例子.
2.
增長股例子 首先分析的對象是 NTRI.這家公司的主要業務為銷售減肥產品/計劃及營養產品. 於 05
年第一季,公司公佈了突破性的營業額增長.(見表一).該季公司的營業額為 37.4M 美元,比 04 年同期增長 182%,而每股盈利為 0.1 美元,增長 400%.於公佈業 績後的交易日股價高開 15%至$8.5,當天收報$9.8.自此股價便一直向上.於一年後 當公司公佈 06 年第一季的業績時,每股盈利為$0.6,比 05 年第一季再升 500%, 股 價 ICBC (Macau) – Center for Investment and Risk Analytics 中國工商銀行(澳門) – 投資及風險研究中心
3.
已經升至 60 多元,上升超過
500%.其間公司的營業額及盈利不斷上升,讀者可從表 一看到其增長的數據. 第二隻為 DDRX. Dierich Coffee 於美國從事咖啡批發及零售業務。公司主要銷售咖 啡豆及經分銷商,連鎖店,咖啡屋及專業零售商銷售名為 K-Cup 之產品.本欄於 4/27 日已經介紹過此股.於 4 月 20 日公司公佈了 09 年第三季的業績,營業額升 73%,每股盈 0.25 利美元,虧轉盈.當日股價高開 76%至$3.7,收報$4.44.自此爆炸式 上升 370%. 最後一隻為 STEC.公司現時業務主要為研發及生產企業電腦儲存系統的固態硬碟 (SSD).此股也於本欄介紹過(5/25).於 5 月 11 日收市後公司公佈第一季業績,營業 額升 25%,每股盈利升 143%.股價於 5/12 裂口高開 35%至$14,收報$13.6.此後穩步 上升 183%.
4.
啓示 從以上例子來看可以發現 3 隻股票均是大幅裂口高開.DDRX
的裂口更是 75%.而 且裂口是不會補回的.事實上當股票公佈的爆炸性或大幅超過預期的盈利增長.股 價一定會高開.第二個發現是於公佈強勁的業績前,三隻股票的股價均已經上升了 很 ICBC (Macau) – Center for Investment and Risk Analytics 中國工商銀行(澳門) – 投資及風險研究中心 多.但這是否表示股價不會再升?當然不是,例如 DDRX 於第三季業績前已經升
5.
1100%,但之後再升 370%.而第三便是高成交量,當天及業績後的成交量會比業績 之前高.讀者可能會問那是否只要買進營業額及盈利有高增長的股票便會大升? 股票是講前景的,當季的盈利固然重要,但更重要的是下一季,兩季後的盈利增長. 若讀者有細心留意的話,從 3
隻股票的數據表中可以發現自首季高增長後,之後幾 季之增長也是有增無減.先看 NTRI,05 第一季增長率是 400%,第二季是 500%,第三 及第四季是虧轉盈.每股盈利是$0.1, $0.12, $0.19 及 $0.18. 而 06 第一季更達$0.6. 再看 STEC,09 第一季每股盈利為$0.17,第二季為$0.42.至於 DDRX?自公佈 09 第三 季後,至今還未出第四季的業績.那讀者能否估到呢? STEC 09第一季業績公佈. 營業額升25%, 每股盈利升143% 219% 183% 新產品推動盈利增長 因此若投資者想補捉到這些增長型大升股,一個重要的技巧是有分析其公司之後
6.
盈利增長的能力.若讀者有興趣的話,不防於 SEC 的網站找回
NTRI 05 第一季,STEC 09 第一季及 DDRX 09 第三季的業績作研究.不難發現這些股票無獨有偶也是有新 產品推出市場.NTRI 是減肥產品,STEC 是 ZeusIOPS,而 DDRX 則是 K-Cup. 因此投資 者要重點分析的是這產品的周期及可持續性。若大幅的增長能夠持續,那股價很 大機會一如以上所分析 3 隻股票般大升. ICBC (Macau) – Center for Investment and Risk Analytics 中國工商銀行(澳門) – 投資及風險研究中心 市場缺乏效率 當公司公佈一些對盈利有重大影響的消息時,市場往往缺乏效率去即時將此消息 反映於股價上.由於編幅有限,下兩期本欄會繼續探討投資於增長股身上的研究, 及一些操作上的問題. NTRI 營業額及每股盈利數據 季度 營業額 營業額增 每股盈利 每股盈利 長率% 增長率% 13.3 0.02 04 第一季 9.2 0.02 04 第二季 7.7 0 04 第三季 7.9 -0.02 04 第四季 37.4 182 0.1 400 05 第一季 40.9 345 0.12 500 05 第二季 64.5 738 0.19 05 第三季 虧轉盈
7.
69.6
781 0.18 05 第四季 虧轉盈 146.8 293 0.6 500 06 第一季 132.6 224 0.53 341 06 第二季 155.3 141 0.63 231 06 第三季 133.3 92 0.54 200 06 第四季 年度 2004 38.1 0.03 2005 212.4 458 0.59 1,867 2006 568.0 167 2.3 290 STEC 營業額及每股盈利數據 季度 營業額 營業額增 每股盈 每股盈利 長率% 利 增長率% 47.2 0.05 07 第一季 43.7 0.05 07 第二季 44.7 0.06 07 第三季 53.0 0.07 07 第四季 50.7 7 0.07 40 08 第一季 56.2 29 0.09 80 08 第二季 63.7 43 0.1 67 08 第三季 56.9 7 0.05 -29 08 第四季 63.5 25 0.17 143 09 第一季 86.4 54 0.42 367 09 第二季 年度 2007 188.6 0.23
8.
2008
227.5 21 0.25 109 149.9 0.59 2009(第一及第二季) DDRX 營業額及每股盈利數據 季度 營業額 營業額增 每股盈利 每股盈利 長率% 增長率% 9.6 -0.22 07 第二季 9.0 0.12 07 第三季 11.2 -0.21 07 第四季 8.2 -0.19 08 第一季 12.4 29 -0.21 -5 08 第二季 11.3 26 -0.37 -408 08 第三季 14.4 29 -1.03 390 08 第四季 11.7 43 -0.33 74 09 第一季 15.6 26 -0.18 -14 09 第二季 19.5 73 0.25 09 第三季 虧轉盈 年度 2007 36.6 -0.54 2008 46.3 27 -1.8 46.8 -0.26 2009(首三季)
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