Potential mitigation impact of good practice policies

1. Potential mitigation impact of good
practice policies
1
Side event at SB42, Bonn
5 June 2015
Hanna Fekete, NewClimate Institute

2. Approach - good practice policies
How much could global GHG emissions be reduced if all countries
implemented the best policies that are already applied by some
countries?
Steps:
Identify good practice policy areas
Define indicators for the quantification of the policies
Determine impact on emissions per country and globally
Where possible - Compare results to scenarios compatible with 2°
Illustration of results of good practice as
Sectoral indicators
Absolute economy wide emissions
2

3. Exemplary results – Fuel efficiency of
light duty vehicles (LDVs)
4
Relatively
homogeneous
efficiency of LDVs
across countries
today, some
deviation in future
Good practice
improves efficiency
especially after
2020
Current policies Good practice policies
PBL
New Climate
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Distancetravelledperfueluse
[km/l]
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Distancetravelledperfueluse
[km/l]
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
World
China
US
India
Brazil
Russia
Japan
Rest of world
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
World
China
US
India
Brazil
Russia
Japan
Rest of world

4. Exemplary results – share of
renewable electricity
5
Good practice
accelerates
renewable energy
deployment
2° compatible:
35% in 2030
(median of all
scenarios, IPCC
2014)

5. Exemplary results – emission intensity
of the electricity sector
6
Good practice
strengthens
decarbonisation
trend
2° compatible:
0.16 to 0.35
kg/kWh in 2030
(IPCC 2014)
Current policies Good practice policies
PBL
New Climate
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Emissionintensityofelectricity
generation[kgCO2e/kWh]
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Emissionintensityofelectricity
generation[kgCO2e/kWh]
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
World
China
US
India
Brazil
Japan
Rest of world
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
World
China
US
India
Brazil
Russia
Japan
Rest of world

6. Covered - Power supply Covered - Industry (energy related)
Covered - Transport (cars only) Covered - F-gases
Covered - Oil & gas production Covered - Buildings
Covered - LULUCF Uncovered - total rest
From sectoral indicators to global
emissions
Coverage NewClimate Institute
7
Covered - Energy Supply Covered - Industry
Covered - Transport Covered - Buildings
Covered - AFOLU Uncovered - AFOLU
Uncovered - Transport Uncovered - Waste
Uncovered - Energy Supply Uncovered - Buildings
Uncovered - Industry Uncovered - Bunkers
Uncovered - Other
Coverage PBL

7. Exemplary results - global
Global emissions
8
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Emissions[MtCO2e/a]
GHG emissons, excluding land use
History
Implemented policies
Good practice policies (limited coverage)
Land use emissions
History
Good practce policies

8. Remaining
emissions of areas
with good practice
policies
Emissions of areas
with no additional
policies
Exemplary results - global
Global emissions
9
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Emissions[MtCO2e/a]
GHG emissons, excluding land use
History
Implemented policies
Good practice policies (limited coverage)
Land use emissions
History
Good practce policies

9. Exemplary results - global
Total emissions and reductions by policy area –
including LULUCF
10
Source: Own elaboration. Range of 2° pathways taken from UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2014
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
LULUCF
Promotion of electric vehicles
Efficiency standards for light duty vehicles
Efficiency standards for the building envelope
Reduction of f-gases
Promotion of energy efficiency in industry
Targets for methane reduction from oil and gas production
Reducing electricity demand from industry and buildings
Support for renewable electricity
Current policies (incl. LULUCF)
Range of 2°
pathways
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GtCO2e/a

10. Conclusions
Good practice policies in the nine analysed areas
move emission trajectories significantly towards 2°
Policies in areas not analysed (35% of emissions)
can lead to additional reductions
Fast implementation and broad geographical
coverage are essential
Sectoral indicators valuable for analyzing direct
impacts of policies
11

11. Thank you for your attention
12
Contacts:
Hanna Fekete, NewClimate Institute
(h.Fekete@newclimate.org)
Mark Roelfsema, PBL Netherlands Environmental
Assessment Agency (mark.roelfsema@pbl.nl)

12. Back up slides
13

13. Exemplary results – oil and gas
production
14
ew Climate
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
ktCO2e/toeoffuelproduced
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
ktCO2e/toeoffuelproduced
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
World
China
US
India
Brazil
Russia
Japan
Rest of world
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
World
China
US
India
Brazil
Russia
Japan
Rest of world
Good practice
changes trend in
emissions
intensity
Current policies Good practice policies

14. Exemplary results - China
15
-1,000
1,000
3,000
5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
13,000
15,000
17,000
19,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Emissions[MtCO2eperyear]
Remaining emissions of
areas with good practice
policies
Emissions of areas with no additional policies
GHG emissons, excluding land use
History
Pledge
Implemented policies
Good practice policies (limited coverage)
Land use emissions
History
Implemented policies

15. Exemplary results - USA
16
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Emissions[MtCO2eperyear]
Remaining emissions of
areas with good practice
policies
Emissions of areas with no
additional policies
GHG emissons, excluding land use
History
Pledge
Implemented policies
Good practice policies (limited coverage)
Good practice policies (full coverage)
Land use emissions
History
Implemented policies

16. Exemplary results - India
17
-500
500
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
5,500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Emissions[MtCO2eperyear]
GHG emissons, excluding land use
History
Pledge
Implemented policies
Good practice policies (limited coverage)
Land use emissions
History
Implemented policies
Remaining emissions of
areas with good practice
policies
Emissions of areas with no additional policies

17. Exemplary results – Brazil
18
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Emissions[MtCO2eperyear]
Good practice policies
projections, min/max
GHG emissons, excluding land use
History
Pledge
Implemented policies
Good practice policies (limited coverage)
Good practice policies (full coverage)
Land use emissions
History
Implemented policies
Remaining emissions of
areas with good practice
policies
Emissions of areas with no additional policies

18. Exemplary results - Japan
19
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Emissions[MtCO2eperyear]
Remaining emissions of
areas with good practice
policies
Emissions of areas with no
additional policies
GHG emissons, excluding land use
History
Pledge
Implemented policies
Good practice policies (limited coverage)
Land use emissions
History
Implemented policies

19. Exemplary results - Russia
20
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Emissions[MtCO2eperyear]
Implemented policy projections
LULUCF min
Series3
Only LULUCF
GHG emissons, excluding land use
History
Pledge
Implemented policies
Good practice policies (limited coverage)
Land use emissions
History
Implemented policies
Remaining emissions of
areas with good practice
policies
Emissions of areas with no
additional policies

20. Exemplary results – Rest of World
21
-2,000
3,000
8,000
13,000
18,000
23,000
28,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Remaining
emissions of areas
with good practice
policies
Emissions of areas
with no additional
policies
GHG emissons, excluding land use
History
Pledge
Implemented policies
Good practice policies (limited coverage)

21. Approach – indicators per policy area
1/2
22

22. Approach – indicators per policy area
1/2
23