Alternatives to Agile Estimation

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Killick Agile Consulting Services

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Alternatives to
Agile Estimation

Neil Killick

@neil_killick #NoEstimates

neilkillick.com

#NoEstimates
"As a software practitioner...

I want to shift focus onto delivering value to
stakeholders & customers and away from
estimating...

So that I am empowered to make the right
decisions & build the right thing"

#NoEstimates is not refusing to estimate.
It's about asking if there is a better way.

How long will this project take?
How much will it cost?
Should we go ahead?

What about emergent value?
Welcoming change?

How useful is an accurate
estimate? Say $400-600k?

Let's consider
a project with
a real
budgetary
constraint

What can we
build for
$500k?

Fixed team, Time = Money
$500k buys us 6 months

Small bets
"Let's build
something for
$100k"

● Creativity

● Drip fund

● Deliver early &
often

● Inspect & adapt

Release 1 (min slice thru requirements)

Release 2

Release 3+

Take top 2 or 3 stories from R1

Iteration 1
The rest

Make stories "small" JIT

Don't get bogged down!

Natural to break down work into
chunks when working in iterations

Learn how to do this effectively

Slice n' Dice
Small = Simple, Unambiguous

1. Are there >1 acceptance criteria?

2. Are there >1 use cases or user scenarios?

3. What is the simplest technical solution (e.g.
"hamburger method")

Why not story points?
Release scope
going up?

Risky to say "not small is OK"

Shifts focus from value to estimated cost

Getting better at estimating delivers no value

Velocity metric gets abused

We value empirical measurement
over Guesses

Counting stories
Backlog
(options) R1 Ready In Progress Done

Visualise Cycle Time
Backlog
(options) R1 Ready In Progress Done

3 wks

2 wks
3
+
4 5
Cycle time = 7/5 = 1.5 weeks

4 wks Help PO understand the
devastating impact of WIP

Constraints force Decisions
Backlog
(options) R1 Ready In Progress Done

3 wks

?
2 wks
?

● Upcoming stories usually smaller
● Work not done is only "options"
4 wks ● Until PO decides to implement, size
doesn't matter

We value
Delivering over Estimating
● Tech infrastructure must
support rapid delivery

● Capability crucial, despite
biz reluctance to release

● Continuous delivery
reduces "need" for
DevOps
estimates

Towards #NoEstimates
● Small releases;
Minimum features

● Don't accept >1
point; Slice n' Dice

● Shorten delivery
cycles; Decisions

● Don't rely on
estimates; Measure

#NoEstimates

Embrace the delicious uncertainty of
software design and development

Make the uncertain... certain
(delivery dates & cost)

Real constraints inspire
creative solutions to problems

Ask yourself why you estimate and
what you use the estimates for

Questions?

Hands up!
Who here estimates?
Who chooses to estimate?
Who doesn't estimate?

● Portfolio level estimation
● 5 potentially valuable projects,
only 1 team
● How would you proceed without
estimates?
● Volunteers to start

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Alternatives to Agile Estimation

1. $ $ $ Alternatives to Agile Estimation Neil Killick @neil_killick #NoEstimates neilkillick.com

2. #NoEstimates "As a software practitioner... I want to shift focus onto delivering value to stakeholders & customers and away from estimating... So that I am empowered to make the right decisions & build the right thing" #NoEstimates is not refusing to estimate. It's about asking if there is a better way.

3. How long will this project take? How much will it cost? Should we go ahead?

4. Projects clump valuable things

5. What about emergent value? Welcoming change?

6. Where does value end?

7. How useful is an accurate estimate? Say $400-600k?

8. Let's consider a project with a real budgetary constraint What can we build for $500k?

9. Fixed team, Time = Money $500k buys us 6 months

10. Small bets "Let's build something for $100k" ● Creativity ● Drip fund ● Deliver early & often ● Inspect & adapt

11. The "project"

12. De-clump!

13. Prioritise into small releases

14. Release 1 (min slice thru requirements) Release 2 Release 3+

15. Take top 2 or 3 stories from R1 Iteration 1 The rest

16. Make stories "small" JIT Don't get bogged down! Natural to break down work into chunks when working in iterations Learn how to do this effectively

17. How do w e know it's "smal l"?

18. Slice n' Dice Small = Simple, Unambiguous 1. Are there >1 acceptance criteria? 2. Are there >1 use cases or user scenarios? 3. What is the simplest technical solution (e.g. "hamburger method")

19. Why not story points? Release scope going up? Risky to say "not small is OK" Shifts focus from value to estimated cost Getting better at estimating delivers no value Velocity metric gets abused

20. Story points lull us into a

21. We value empirical measurement over Guesses

22. Counting stories Backlog (options) R1 Ready In Progress Done

23. Visualise Cycle Time Backlog (options) R1 Ready In Progress Done 3 wks 2 wks 3 + 4 5 Cycle time = 7/5 = 1.5 weeks 4 wks Help PO understand the devastating impact of WIP

24. Constraints force Decisions Backlog (options) R1 Ready In Progress Done 3 wks ? 2 wks ? ● Upcoming stories usually smaller ● Work not done is only "options" 4 wks ● Until PO decides to implement, size doesn't matter

25. We value Delivering over Estimating ● Tech infrastructure must support rapid delivery ● Capability crucial, despite biz reluctance to release ● Continuous delivery reduces "need" for DevOps estimates

26. Towards #NoEstimates ● Small releases; Minimum features ● Don't accept >1 point; Slice n' Dice ● Shorten delivery cycles; Decisions ● Don't rely on estimates; Measure

27. #NoEstimates Embrace the delicious uncertainty of software design and development Make the uncertain... certain (delivery dates & cost) Real constraints inspire creative solutions to problems Ask yourself why you estimate and what you use the estimates for

28. Questions? Hands up! Who here estimates? Who chooses to estimate? Who doesn't estimate? ● Portfolio level estimation ● 5 potentially valuable projects, only 1 team ● How would you proceed without estimates? ● Volunteers to start

Alternatives to Agile Estimation

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