Envisioning and Creating the Future: Trends and Scenarios

2. New year’s resolutions What new year’s resolution do you have? Why do people formulate new year’s resolution? Why do you think people don’t stick to their new year’s resolution?

3. What does the future mean to you? Future (adjective): Belonging to that part of time that has not yet occurred but that will occur. Future (noun): The period of time following the present moment and continuing indefinitely The situation or condition of someone or something in the future One of a plurality of possible future conditions or situations. These are sometimes defined as alternative futures or just futures Futuring (verb): the act, art or science of identifying and evaluating possible future events.

5. Fragmented illusion “From a very early age, we are taught to break apart problems, to fragment the world. This apparently makes complex tasks and subjects more manageable, but we pay a hidden, enormous price. We can no longer see the consequences of our actions; we lose our intrinsic sense of connection to a larger whole. When we then try to “see the big picture” we try to reassemble the fragments in our minds, to list and organize all the pieces. But, as physicist David Bohm says, the task is futile –similar to trying to reassemble the fragments of a broken mirror to see a true reflection. Thus, after a while we give up trying to see the whole altogether.” (Peter Senge, 1990)

6. Everything is connected to each other When we give up the illusion that the world is created of separated, unrelated forces, then we can start creating sustainable futures A pond that ripples, when you throw a stone in it…

8. A paradigm that can help to think and imagine the multiple connections between the individual parts: Systems Thinking A system may be defined as any group of things that are connected together so that they act in some ways as a whole: Examples of systems: The universe The human body The ecosystem The social sector The economy An organization

10. Charachteristics The system concept helps us think in very broad terms about how events occur It adds structure It focuses our attention to on relationships rather than on things: “It is the relationship among things themselves, more than the things themselves that shape events”

12. Focus on relationships, rather than on individual things:

13. Imagining systems:Interrelatedness and Change: plausibility! Let’s experiment with systems thinking by using the metaphor of the Guilloche pattern generator* *Guilloché is a decorative engraving technique in which a very precise intricate pattern repetitive or design is mechanically engraved into an underlying material with fine detail. Specifically, it involves a technique of engine turning ,called guilloché in French after the French engineer “Guillot”, who invented a machine “that could scratch fine patterns and designs on metallic surfaces”. http://www.subblue.com/projects/guilloche

14. 7 levels of Living systems (Miller, 1979) Living systems are divided between: biological systems and social systems 7 levels of living systems: The cell (the amoebae, a muscle cell, a cancer cell) The organ (heart, liver, brains) The organism (a man, plant, dog) The group (family, gaggle of cheese) The organization (school, factory, government) The society (Aruba, US, Australia) The supranational system (NATO, EU)

15. Infinitive future potentialities/possibilities Difference between a historian and a futurist The historian focuses on the actualities of the past; The futurist must deal with the infinitely more numerous potentialities of the future Since potential events have never had any actuality, we can only imagine them, and many lie beyond the reach of our wildest imagining. However we get a few hints of how incredible must be those things that we cannot imagine

16. Chance and Chaos: Butterfly effect A metaphor to illustrate sensitivity to initial conditions. The metaphor was popularized by MIT’s Edward Lorenz with his 1979 paper: Predictability: does a flap of a butterfly’s wind in Brazil sett off a tornado in Texas?

17. Explorer’s Attitude: setting out on the expedition Prepare for what you will face in the future Anticipate future needs Use poor information when necessary Expect the unexpected Think long term as well as short term Dream productively Learn from your predecessors

19. Futuring methods The goal of futuring is not to predict the future but to improve it. We want to anticipate possible or likely future conditions so that we can prepare for them. We want to focus in particular on opportunities and risks that we should be ready for. For this we have a number of useful methods: ordinary procedure that most of us use occasionally in ordinary life, but then more refined

20. Some futuring methods Scanning Trend analysis Trend monitoring Trend projection Scenarios Polling Brainstorming Modeling Gaming Historical analysis Visioning

21. Scanning the world around Us Scanning: The process of identifying significant changes in the external environment –that is, in the world beyond our immediate area of operations- It can be thought of as the effort to identify and understand those phenomena or aspects of the world that are most relevant to the people or groups who need this information for important decisions. Is an ongoing process Scanning is based on systematic survey of current newspapers, magazines, research findings, websites and other media for indication of changes likely to have future importance

23. We are what we measure: choosing the right indicators is crucial

24. Scanning focuses on trends rather than events A trend: changes that occur through time Events: changes that occur very quickly and generally are less significant for understanding the future

25. Six broad categories of trends:DEGEST Demography Economy Government Environment (the natural environment) Society/Culture Technology Or STEEP categories: Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political

26. Procedure (simplified) With for e.g. the DEGEST system (or the STEEP) we can think sequentially about demographic trends then economic, then governmental etc… We then can combine a number of trends into a single major trend that includes them all After that we move to the more complex part of making connections across the categories We look at the relationships among the trends: causes and consequences

27. Example trend cycle (climate monitoring)

28. e.g. Trend analysis Trend: A rise in life expectancy Causes: (might be caused by) rising living standards, better medical treatments, healthier environments Impact: A longer portion of people’s life will be spent in retirement Increasing demand in goods and services for the eldery and maybe bigger financial strain on families to care for aging parents/grandparents Golden question: What kind of environment should be designed in order to accommodate these changes?

31. Lifestyle

32. Culture

33. Social

34. Education,

37. Households

38. Industry

39. Transport

40. Services

42. Hydrosphere

43. Land

44. Biota

46. Scenario’s

47. Scenario’s Conjectures about what might happen in the future A simple way to develop a scenario is to project a current trend into the future, but this gives us only one scenario We need to develop others because not all trends may proceed as we anticipated Our imagination is important in developing alternative scenario’s Scenarios are created by means of narratives: “we are defined by the stories we tell each other and ourselves” (Venessa Miemes, 2010)

48. It is advisable to create a minimum of 3 scenarios when considering future events or situations by identifying futures that are:possible, probable, and preferable five sample scenarios from Cornish’s (2004) book: A Surprise-Free Scenario: Things will continue much as they are now. They won’t become substantially better or worse. An Optimistic Scenario: Things will go considerably better than in the recent past. A Pessimistic Scenario: Something will go considerably worse than in the past. A Disaster Scenario: Things will go terribly wrong, and our situation will be far worse than anything we have previously experienced. A Transformation Scenario: Something spectacularly marvelous happens – something we never dared to expect.

50. Forecasting and Backcasting planning for the future forecasting backcasting A statement (scenario composed of trends) that something will happen in the future. Forecast implies less certainty about the events occurrence than prediction, but the terms are often used interchangeable A method for forecasting or planning in which an event is posted as already having occurred in the future. The question then becomes: How did this event come to be? Backcasting offers a way to envision a desirable future and then determine what must happen in order for that goal to be reached

51. Back to an other kind of butterfly metaphor: metamorphosis We create our future with the conscious actions in the now

52. “A bright green future begins when each of us, today, decides to live as if that future were already here.” - Alex Steffen(World Changing)

53. We must co- create our future: change agents! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noPcVKf24rk&feature=player_embedded

54. Co-creating the future of Aruba: Nos Aruba 2025

55. Let’s take a look at the scenario’s used at the Nos Aruba 2025 planning process Please take a look at the scenario statements and blueprint document I’ve just handed in the class

56. Documentary on Nos Aruba 2025 process:

57. Video’s http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwOm4eCIOoQ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhsyddLex8M&feature=related http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxAtO391eSA&feature=related http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Um_Ibsnw67c&feature=related