During 2010 NCVYS Policy Officer Dom Weinberg worked in partnership with NCVO Third Sector Foresight to conduct research into the drivers (trends and forces) that could impact on the voluntary and community youth sector over the next 5-10 years. This included an event in November. The Event Slides include details of the drivers NCVYS developed, as well as further details of the Foresight project.

1. What does the future hold for youth organisations?

2. foresight is…understanding your changing world& so making better decisions

3. spotting the storm before it hits (buying you time to plan)

4. foresight helps you reduce risk – by anticipating

5. preparedness not prediction

6. it helps avoid surprises

7. foresight helps you be prepared: to stay innovative and relevant.to shape the future you want, not just react

8. foresight helps you choose a hill so you can plan the right moves to get there

9. so it goes before planning… decide what you’re about evaluate, learn… foresight spot options, make choices do it ! plan

10. ‘it’s not the strongest that survives, or the most intelligent, it’s the most adaptable’

11. so, how do you do foresight ?

12. it’s a three-part process what trends or forces (drivers) may affect your organisation or its beneficiaries ? (for good or ill) so what are the implications ? now what to do about it ? where to start…?

13. NCVO Foresight makes it easy: 100 drivers (trends) at 3s4.org.uk

15. tailor the drivers yourself to make them relevant and specific share views and news with the sector sign up to the bulletin NCVYS drivers under ‘specialist sectors’ at http://www.3s4.org.uk/drivers (http://www.3s4.org.uk/drivers/categories/youth-organisations)

18. let’s futurise ! what might the headlines be for the youth sector in… 2015 ? 2020 ? 2025 ?

19. PEST : a good old tool e.g. trends and forces affecting the voluntary and community sector by 2020

20. here’s one from another Foresight event

21. and here’s what NCVYS members came up with... (zoom in for a closer look)

22. Step 2: Sifting & Sorting. (still the What?) drivers you see as most important drivers you feel will have biggest impact drivers you think most likely to happen Dom and participants at the event did this. They developed the following 6 drivers...

23. The Changing Role of Young People VS Positives Involvement in community Participation Interested in broader politics Adaptable to change Leading in social media Negatives Anti-social behaviour Inactivity Unemployment Disengaged from politics No time for childhood Never switching off

24. Safeguarding A ‘new’ system is being developed – the requirements for charities is changing Policy has been driven by media More to safeguarding than policy Are you aware of the changes? Do you have policies and procedures in place? Are you influencing the debate on safeguarding? What do staff need to know? Constraints Risks Opportunities

25. Youth unemployment Youth NEET/unemployment figures stubbornly high. Long-standing structural problems facing those at the bottom end of the education system and labour market Long-term impact of youth unemployment on their prospects, health etc. And impact on society. BUT with some new opportunities in education, how can VCS respond?

26. Marginalised young people Inequality gap – intergenerational debt Multiple challenges At risk of offending VCS works best with these young people. Payment by results – opportunities and concerns Universal vs Targeted support How can vulnerable young people be supported? How can the VCS influence the national policy debate?

27. Young people’s health Young people inevitable engage in risk-taking behaviour Drug-taking, sexual promiscuity, poor dietary and exercise habits Wider concerns - interlinked with mental health, being outside, technological changes Outdoor play and the importance of community places

29. What will changes mean for the independence of the VCYS?

31. Commissioning

32. Expectations of evidence

33. Public service cuts

34. Trends in volunteering

35. Climate change

36. Poverty and inequality

37. Public spaces

38. Digital exclusion

39. Olympics

41. ranking drivers HIGH IMPACT high impact / certain drivers will often end up in your strategic plan but uncertain drivers, where you are not clear about them and/or their implications, may have the greatest impact because you are less able to prepare UNCERTAIN CERTAIN LOWER IMPACT

42. driver implications grid(also possible as a mindmap !) the grid helps you think through the strategic implications of a driver (eg: ageing population) for your organisation by considering the impact on the internal & external parts of the organisation in turn. under each heading, write: challenges, threats & risks that might emerge opportunities for improving effectiveness & impact keep it strategic !

43. Here’s what we did at the NCVYS event on: Employment prospects for young people

46. how might you embed strategic foresight in your organisation & networks ?

47. we can coach you, scan for you, bring you & others together to study a shared threat or opportunity, and have lots of downloadable materials to do it yourself ncvo foresight www.3s4.org.uk

48. And finally… a step back to the big picture

49. NCVO research has come up with the top 3 trends to 2020 NCVO worked with: 9 regional infrastructure orgs 8 subsector umbrellas 3 years’ training & coaching ►tailored trends @ 3s4.org.uk 1 final workshop (see how NCVO hammered it out: bit.ly/cDNFMi)

50. the top 3 trends to 2020 1. funding diversity & innovation 2. growth in web technologies 3. new & shifting social inequalities

51. looking back from 2020 (permanent beta, please don’t sue)

52. the ‘teens’ began with an ill-defined wish for ‘change’, then bitter battles over how change should look

53. in 2020 the 2000s seem as distant as the 1970s did in 2010 there was lots of noise about ideology v necessity until 2015 but like it or not, it’s now clear the coalition (& after) was part of a global shift in how the state delivers why?

54. multi-crunch of economy, climate, natural resources, ageing (+ stubborn, rising social need)

55. the term ‘big society’ was shortlived but there’s still a constant mash-up of old/new words to try to engage citizens in solutions (that don’t increase the state’s costs) ‘big / good / local / citizen / society / government’

56. unfair cutting of a smaller cake rising expectations (equalities laws, healthcare, etc) v dwindling tax base white-ish, ‘rich’, baby-boomers-plus v young, diverse, migrants, undeserving poor unusual alliances on both sides of various divides

57. 2010: 36p per £1 of charity income was from government Statutory funding of the VCS, 2001/01- 2007/08 (£billions): NCVO rapidly cut to 2003/04 levels (ie: pre-ChangeUp…)

58. innovation nation eg: social impact bonds 2010 pilot @ peterborough prison raised £5m if reoffending cut by 7.5%+, MoJ would share out savings but what counts? who counts it?

59. technology helped - exponentially(click twice)

60. the network effect not just comms & campaigns explosive growth for good ideas & tools massive efficiencies emphasis on access to stuff, not ownership near death of print media in 2020 your mobile is your main web tool but the ‘IT poor’ persist

61. giving without the middle-man global web philanthropy exchanges 50+ in 2010 you = philanthropist direct relationship

62. ‘atomised collectivity’(what in 2010 we called ‘community’) small government (& small society?) web-enabled micro-volunteering : what Clay Shirky called your ‘cognitive surplus’ single equalities act ► ‘diversity mosaic’, not blending what role for your organisation if people can source everything direct?

63. what does all this mean for our near future?

64. local, individual & community solutions grassroots organising: facilitated by technology, driven by need all parties try to conceptualise and harness this (eg NESTA’s ‘mass localism’) but no consensus yet on: big / small society / government we think we know better than experts & government, & support others getting involved but volunteering is stubbornly static, even after 13 years of Labour investment ! Proportion who have given any unpaid help to non-relatives in the last 12 months Citizenship Survey

65. there are so many ifs. eg… how do the statutory bodies in your local area influence your organisation’s success? (%) Ipsos-MORI for OTS