Mais conteúdo relacionado
Semelhante a 2nd Green Revolution (14)
2nd Green Revolution
- 1. A 2nd Green Revolution
New Business Models to
Accelerate Adoption of Clean
Technologies
Nalin Kulatilaka
- 2. Energy Conversion
Primary Human
Sources Uses
Energy Transport
Energy Storage
Solar
solar hot
water, he
Wind ating
Win
Ph dow
Heat
ot s/
ov
Hou
ol
ta
Tidal sin
ics g des
i gn
Hydro Electricity
Light
Bio
Fuel Cells
Motion
Fossil Fuel
Hydrogen
Water
Geo
thermal
Processing
Markets
Fission
Intermediaries
Organizations
Fusion
© Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
- 4. The Ignored Opportunity
The Familiar Cut
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration statistics
Graphic Published first in Metropolis Magazine, October 2003 Issue.
© Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
- 6. Efficiency Investment Risk and Return
30%
25%
Energy Efficiency
Small Company Stocks
20%
15%
Common Stock
10%
Long-Term Corp. Bonds
5%
U.S. T-Bills
0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
© Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
- 7. The Economics of Conservation in the
Built Environment
• Profit Opportunity:
Avoided cost of energy 13¢ /kwh
RPS premium 2¢/kwh
Carbon credit 2.5¢/kwh
Less energy efficiency cost of 2¢/kwh
Equals 15 - 16¢/kwh
Who can capture the value?
Utilities can’t do it. In 48 states regulations prevent
•
utilities from profiting from energy efficiency investments
Consumers don’t act by themselves. High upfront
•
costs, information fragmentation, and small dollar impact
on the energy bill have prevented consumers from acting
on their own
© Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
- 8. Brown Building -- Energy Bill
Appliances
?
Features
Behavior
Weather
Oil Price
© Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
- 10. First Step: Energy Service
Companies
• Analogous to IT services
• Can bridge expertise/knowledge gaps, overcome customer inertia
and change the marketplace.
ESCOs exist, but we need them to flourish.
© Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
- 11. Needs an Ecosystem
Design, install, and operate
Evaluate risks Monitor and
E-Inter
and provide validate
Opportunity
financing energy use
Interface with
utilities and
contract with
customers
© Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
- 12. Business Model
Customer 1 Customer 2 …………… ………….. Customer N
Monitoring &
Verification
Credit Risk
Rate Risk
E-Inter
Performance Risk
Lender
Utility Securitize
annuities
© Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
- 13. Up-Side Potential:
Peak Shifting Programs
PJM is Accepting Example of Generator providing Super Fast Reserves:
Frequency control and ± 60MW of Secondary Reserves on AGC
Reserve Services
from Load Since July
2006. Experience so
far indicates loads are
more reliable.
ISO-NE is conducting
pilot to Investigate
load participation in
reserve services.
Secondary Reserves
320MW±60MW
Frequency Control
Source: Courtesy of EnThes Inc., March 2007
© Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
- 14. Business Model
Customer 1 Customer 2 ………….. ……………. Customer N
Monitoring &
Verification
Credit Risk
Rate Risk
E-Inter
Performance Risk
Lender
• Load control
• FCM
Utility
• RECs
• etc.
System Operator
© Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
- 15. The Cyber Infrastructure
• Real-time metering at individual “edge user”
• Communications infrastructure to convey price signals
– Users and smart appliances
• Control systems to adjust load
– Central pool
• If distributed generation (wind, solar), then 2-way
metering.
© Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
- 16. Conclusions
• Built environment ready for immediate adoption of demand
reduction and distributed generation
• Opportunities for service and financing model innovations
• Vital need for measurement, monitoring, and verification
services.
• Up-side opportunities through pooling and controlling load --
need a cyber infrastructure
© Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka