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Houston Economy at a Glance
1.
A publication of
the Greater Houston Partnership Volume 19, Number 6 • June 2010 Employment Continues to Improve — The Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown Metropolitan Area added 2,700 jobs in April, according to the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC). Job gains in April reduced the 12-month net loss to 40,900 jobs. As recently as December ’09, Houston’s net 12-month job loss stood at 102,800. Job gains occurred in several sectors—health care and social assistance; administrative and support services; arts, entertainment and recreation; food services and drinking places; oil and gas extraction and support services; and real estate and rental and leasing. Construction and manufacturing reported losses in April but at subdued rates compared to this time last year. April marks the third consecutive month of job gains for the region. Houston started to see improvement in the Purchasing Managers Index in April ’09. The U.S. rotary rig count bottomed out June ’09. Airport traffic and residential real es- tate sales began to improve September ’09. Customs district trade began to im- prove December ’09. Those improvements are finally showing up in the employ- ment numbers. Since February, Houston has added 28,400 jobs, about one-fifth of total jobs lost during the recession. Several sectors account for the bulk of the employment growth this year—pro- fessional and business services (6,600 jobs), food services and drinking places (5,600 jobs), health care and social assistance (4,200 jobs), local education (2,700 jobs), arts, entertainment and recreation (2,400 jobs) and oil and gas extraction and support services (1,200 jobs). However, several sectors continue to report losses— construction (-600 jobs), wholesale and retail trade (-800 jobs), finance and insurance (-700 jobs) and information (-600 jobs). Although business services has added jobs, two subsectors suffered losses since January—accounting (-600) and architectural and engineering services (-900). As the economy improves, these sectors should report employment gains as well. Harris County Wages Rise —– In Q4/09, Harris County recorded the highest average weekly wage among Texas’ counties with more than 75,000 jobs, according to the TWC. The weekly wage in Harris County averaged $1,197 in Q4/09, a 15 percent increase from the prior quarter and 27 percent above the state’s average of $944. Natural resources and mining sector posted the highest weekly wage— $3,131—more than twice the average weekly wage for manufacturing— $1,494—the next highest paying industry. June 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 1
2.
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT
A GLANCE Rig Count up, Gas Prices Flat, Oil Prices Slipping — The Baker Hughes count of active domestic rotary rigs averaged 1,507 in May, ending the month at 1,535— the highest level in 71 weeks, and 75 percent above the recent low of 876 last June. The Friday closing spot market price of Henry Hub natural gas has held fairly stable at around $4 per MMBtu since mid-March. In its May Short-Term Energy Outlook, the agency forecasts the Henry Hub spot price to average $4.48 per MMBtu in ’10 and $5.34 in ’11. Inventories of gas in storage remain high, how- ever, and continue to exert downward pressure on prices. The Friday closing spot market price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) hovered around $70 a barrel in May, having slipped from around $84 a barrel in April. The drop in price resulted more from a strengthening of the dollar than any decline in oil demand. EIA projects that world oil consumption will grow by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2010, slightly higher than in last month's Outlook, and also by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2011. Homebuyer Tax Credit Boosts Housing Market — Single-family home sales tallied on the Houston Multiple Listing Service rose for the second consecutive month in April ’10, the Houston Association of Realtors® (HAR) reported. Houston area closings in April totaled 5,321, a 26.7 percent increase from a year earlier. “The Houston real estate market seems to have truly benefited from home- buyers who acted by April 30 to take advantage of the tax credit as well as low mortgage interest rates,” said Margie Dorrance, HAR chair. The $8,000 tax credit for first time homebuyers expired April 30 and required homebuyers to sign closing papers by June 30. Unlike many other parts of the nation, Houston’s home prices continue to appre- ciate. As sales activity has increased, prices have continued to rise. The average price of a single-family home increased 6.8 percent to $206,414, driven by a 53.4 percent rise in luxury home sales ($500,000+). The median price of a single-family home sold in Houston in April ’10 was $153,500, up 2.4 percent from a year earlier—the highest for an April in Houston. Sales pending at the end of April totaled 4,613—the highest since July ’08 and up 25.2 percent from April ’09. Single-family inventory stood at a 6.5 month supply, up from a 6.0 month supply a year ago. The tax credit also seems to have boosted Houston’s new single-family home market. Net sales of new single-family homes in April totaled 2,251, up 17.5 percent from last year, according to a Metrostudy survey that covers approximately 75 percent of the Houston new single-family market. However, with the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, builders are expected to reduce their spec construction. Lower traffic and new home sales are also expected. June 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 2
3.
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT
A GLANCE The number of spec homes under construction increased by 25 percent from April ’09, but fell by 247 units from March ’10. The number of completed spec homes fell 27 percent from April ’09 and 14 percent from March ’10. International Air Traffic Grows, Domestic Flat — Through April of this year, the Houston Airport System (HAS) handled 15.40 million passengers, up 1.4 percent from 15.18 million passengers over the same time last year. Domestic traffic totaled 12.72 million passengers, up 0.5 percent from 12.66 million passengers last year. International traffic totaled 2.68 million passengers, up 6.5 percent from the 2.52 million passengers from last year. April is the eighth consecutive month to post over-the-year growth in total passenger volume. Air freight continued to post strong gains in April ‘10, up 13.6 percent over April ’09. Over-the-year gains in air freight were up 16.4 percent over the same period last year. Air cargo volume has picked up sharply since last September as the economy continues to recover from the previous recession. Foreign Trade Improving — The Houston-Galveston Customs District handled foreign trade valued at $18.3 billion in March, up 44 percent from $12.7 billion in March ’09, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Exports totaled $8.2 billion, up 37 percent from $5.9 billion in March ’09. Imports totaled $11.1 billion, up 50 percent from $6.7 billion in March ’09. For the first quarter of ‘09, trade totaled $47.8 billion, up 30 percent from $36.9 billion last year. Exports were $21.3 billion, up 29 percent from $16.6 billion last year. Imports were $26.4 billion, up 30 percent from $20.3 billion last year. Fuel oils, machinery, chemicals, plastics, vehicles, vehicle parts, iron and steel, cereals and scientific instruments comprise the bulk of the goods passing through the Houston-Galveston customs district. The recent surge in exports and imports reflects the improving U.S. and global economies and the need to replenish inventories depleted during the recession. However, economists have expressed concern that Europe’s recent woes and the stronger dollar may slow U.S. export growth. Houston Maintains Low Cost of Living — In Q1/10, the cost of living in Houston was 18 percent below the average for 27 metropolitan areas over 2 million population and 9 percent below the average for all 308 reporting places, according to the ACCRA Cost of Living Index. The index, produced by the Council for Community and Economic Research, measures differences in the relative cost of consumer goods and services appropriate for a professional or managerial household. Bargain housing costs help maintain Houston’s low cost of living. In Q1/10, housing costs in Houston were 39 percent below the major metro average and 22 June 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 3
4.
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT
A GLANCE percent below the average of all 308 reporting places. According to the ACCRA survey, the same new house that cost $209,000 in Houston in January cost $348,744 in Miami, $420,600 in Boston and $607,391 in Washington, D.C. The cost of grocery items in Houston was also the lowest among the major metro areas, 17 percent below the major metro average and 13 percent below the national average. Houston did not differ significantly from the nationwide average on the other components: utilities, transportation, health care, and miscellaneous goods and services. ____________________________________ The Greater Houston Partnership is the primary advocate of Houston’s business community and is dedicated to building regional economic prosperity. Visit the Greater Houston Partnership on the World Wide Web at www.houston.org. Contact us by phone at 713-844-3600. June 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 4
5.
HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT
A GLANCE Houston Economic Indicators YEAR-TO-DATE A Service of the Greater Houston Partnership MONTHLY DATA TOTAL OR AVERAGE* Most Year % Most Year % Month Recent Earlier Change Recent Earlier Change ENERGY U.S. Active Rotary Rigs May '10 1,513 918 64.8 1,405 * 1,178 * 19.3 Spot Crude Oil Price ($/bbl, West Texas Intermediate) Apr '10 84.50 51.44 64.3 79.89 * 45.40 * 76.0 Spot Natural Gas ($/MMBtu, Henry Hub) Apr '10 3.94 3.47 13.5 4.74 * 4.27 * 11.0 UTILITIES AND PRODUCTION Houston Purchasing Managers Index Apr '10 58.1 40.9 42.1 55.6 * 39.8 * 39.7 Nonresidential Electric Current Sales (Mwh, CNP Service Area) Apr '10 4,009,797 3,675,415 9.1 15,394,679 15,064,200 2.2 CONSTRUCTION Total Building Contracts ($, Houston MSA) Apr '10 857,440,000 763,052,000 12.4 2,838,414,000 2,676,859,000 6.0 Nonresidential Apr '10 356,808,000 347,505,000 2.7 947,626,000 1,248,951,000 -24.1 Residential Apr '10 500,632,000 415,547,000 20.5 1,890,788,000 1,427,908,000 32.4 Building Permits ($, City of Houston) Apr '10 292,516,073 210,904,260 38.7 995,998,781 1,323,574,618 -24.7 Nonresidential Apr '10 186,202,144 139,380,862 33.6 625,799,507 1,014,654,957 -38.3 New Nonresidential Apr '10 69,578,711 68,306,803 1.9 242,992,011 343,019,410 -29.2 Nonresidential Additions/Alterations/Conversions Apr '10 116,623,433 71,074,059 64.1 382,807,496 671,635,547 -43.0 Residential Apr '10 106,313,929 71,523,398 48.6 370,199,274 308,919,661 19.8 New Residential Apr '10 84,110,357 46,436,898 81.1 284,940,228 229,224,514 24.3 Residential Additions/Alterations/Conversions Apr '10 22,203,572 25,086,500 -11.5 85,259,046 79,695,147 7.0 Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Activity Closings Apr '10 6,200 4,895 26.7 18,850 17,246 9.3 Median Sales Price - SF Detached Apr '10 153,500 149,900 2.4 149,813 * 140,503 * 6.6 Active Listings Apr '10 48,869 45,269 8.0 47,442 * 44,991 * 5.4 EMPLOYMENT (Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA) Nonfarm Payroll Employment Apr '10 2,507,900 2,548,800 -1.6 2,496,200 * 2,563,300 * -2.6 Goods Producing (Natural Resources/Mining/Const/Mfg) Apr '10 472,000 502,300 -6.0 472,400 * 516,700 * -8.6 Service Providing Apr '10 2,035,900 2,046,500 -0.5 2,023,800 * 2,046,600 * -1.1 Unemployment Rate (%) - Not Seasonally Adjusted Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA Apr '10 8.4 6.7 8.6 * 6.6 * Texas Apr '10 8.1 6.8 8.3 * 6.9 * U.S. Apr '10 9.5 8.6 10.2 * 8.8 * Unemployment Insurance Claims (Gulf Coast WDA) Initial Claims Apr '10 22,823 27,306 -16.4 22,517 * 26,919 * -16.4 Continuing Claims Apr '10 97,017 129,217 -24.9 112,395 * 118,592 * -5.2 TRANSPORTATION Port of Houston Authority Shipments (Short Tons) Apr '10 3,051,919 3,075,871 -0.8 12,286,706 12,535,725 -2.0 Air Passengers (Houston Airport System) Apr '10 3,972,022 3,980,644 -0.2 15,406,043 15,186,020 1.4 Domestic Passengers Apr '10 3,316,921 3,341,659 -0.7 12,721,652 12,664,585 0.5 International Passengers Apr '10 655,101 638,985 2.5 2,684,391 2,521,435 6.5 Landings and Takeoffs Apr '10 69,408 73,595 -5.7 278,725 288,225 -3.3 Air Freight (000 lb) Apr '10 70,983 62,502 13.6 278,380 239,125 16.4 Enplaned Apr '10 37,569 33,723 11.4 146,752 128,848 13.9 Deplaned Apr '10 33,414 28,779 16.1 131,628 110,277 19.4 CONSUMERS New Car and Truck Sales (Units, Houston MSA) Apr '10 19,634 17,520 12.1 79,105 69,057 14.6 Cars Apr '10 8,946 7,794 14.8 36,337 30,810 17.9 Trucks, SUVs and Commercials Apr '10 10,688 9,726 9.9 42,768 38,247 11.8 Total Retail Sales ($000,000, Houston MSA, NAICS Basis) 3Q09 18,738 20,136 -6.9 53,679 59,150 -9.3 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers ('82-'84=100) Houston-Galveston-Brazoria CMSA Apr '10 194.037 189.701 2.3 192.836 * 188.365 * 2.4 United States Apr '10 218.009 213.24 2.2 217.267 * 212.321 * 2.3 Hotel Performance (Harris County) Occupancy (%) Dec '09 45.5 57.5 60.2 * 70.1 * Average Room Rate ($) Dec '09 108.44 118.29 -8.3 116.79 * 126.58 * -7.7 Revenue Per Available Room ($) Dec '09 49.38 68.06 -27.4 70.30 * 88.79 * -20.8 POSTINGS AND FORECLOSURES Postings (Harris County) May '10 3,492 3,757 -7.1 19,468 14,342 35.7 Foreclosures (Harris County) May '10 958 1,060 -9.6 5,548 4,104 35.2 June 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 5
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HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT
A GLANCE Sources Rig Count Baker Hughes Incorporated Port Shipments Port of Houston Authority Spot WTI, Spot Natural Gas U.S. Energy Information Agency Aviation Aviation Department, City of Houston Purchasing Managers National Association of Houston Index Purchasing Management – Car and Truck Sales TexAuto Facts Report, InfoNation, Houston, Inc. Inc., Sugar Land TX Electricity CenterPoint Energy Retail Sales Texas Comptroller’s Office Building Construction Contracts McGraw-Hill Construction Consumer Price Index U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics City of Houston Building Permits Building Permit Department, City Hotels PKF Consulting/Hospitality Asset of Houston Advisors International MLS Data Houston Association of Realtors® Postings, Foreclosures Foreclosure Information & Listing Employment, Unemployment Texas Workforce Commission Service STAY UP TO DATE! If you would like to receive this electronic publication on the first working day of each month, please e- mail your request for Economy at a Glance to rpate@houston.org. Include your name, title and phone number and your company’s name and address. Archived copies are available to Partnership Members in the Members Only section at www.houston.org. For information about joining the Greater Houston Partnership and gaining access to this powerful resource, call Member Services at 713-844-3683. The foregoing table is updated whenever any data change — typically, 11 or so times per month. If you would like to receive those updates by e-mail, usually accompanied by commentary, please e-mail your request for Key Economic Indicators to rpate@houston.org with the same identifying information. You may request Glance and Indicators in the same e-mail. June 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 6
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HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT
A GLANCE HOUSTON MSA NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (000) Change from % Change from Apr '10 Mar '10 Apr '09 Mar '10 Apr '09 Mar '10 Apr '09 Total Nonfarm Payroll Jobs 2,507.9 2,505.2 2,548.8 2.7 -40.9 0.1 -1.6 Total Private 2,127.3 2,126.2 2,175.2 1.1 -47.9 0.1 -2.2 Goods Producing 472.0 473.1 502.3 -1.1 -30.3 -0.2 -6.0 Service Providing 2,035.9 2,032.1 2,046.5 3.8 -10.6 0.2 -0.5 Private Service Providing 1,655.3 1,653.1 1,672.9 2.2 -17.6 0.1 -1.1 Mining and Logging 87.8 87.8 87.3 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.6 Oil & Gas Extraction 49.9 49.6 48.0 0.3 1.9 0.6 4.0 Support Activities for Mining 36.8 37.0 38.3 -0.2 -1.5 -0.5 -3.9 Construction 166.6 167.3 186.0 -0.7 -19.4 -0.4 -10.4 Manufacturing 217.6 218.0 229.0 -0.4 -11.4 -0.2 -5.0 Durable Goods Manufacturing 138.1 138.1 147.6 0.0 -9.5 0.0 -6.4 Nondurable Goods Manufacturing 79.5 79.9 81.4 -0.4 -1.9 -0.5 -2.3 Wholesale Trade 126.9 128.3 132.8 -1.4 -5.9 -1.1 -4.4 Retail Trade 258.6 259.4 260.8 -0.8 -2.2 -0.3 -0.8 Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities 119.2 119.3 123.8 -0.1 -4.6 -0.1 -3.7 Utilities 16.7 16.6 16.8 0.1 -0.1 0.6 -0.6 Air Transportation 23.9 23.9 24.6 0.0 -0.7 0.0 -2.8 Truck Transportation 18.2 18.2 19.5 0.0 -1.3 0.0 -6.7 Pipeline Transportation 8.9 8.8 8.7 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.3 Balance, incl Warehousing, Water & Rail Transport 51.5 51.8 54.2 -0.3 -2.7 -0.6 -5.0 Information 32.7 33.2 34.8 -0.5 -2.1 -1.5 -6.0 Telecommunications 17.6 17.8 18.1 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1 -2.8 Finance & Insurance 86.4 86.6 88.7 -0.2 -2.3 -0.2 -2.6 Real Estate & Rental and Leasing 50.7 50.5 50.9 0.2 -0.2 0.4 -0.4 Professional & Business Services 348.5 347.7 360.1 0.8 -11.6 0.2 -3.2 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 169.4 169.5 177.6 -0.1 -8.2 -0.1 -4.6 Legal Services 22.7 22.7 23.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0 -1.3 Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping 17.4 17.7 19.5 -0.3 -2.1 -1.7 -10.8 Architectural, Engineering & Related Services 58.8 59.0 62.1 -0.2 -3.3 -0.3 -5.3 Computer Systems Design & Related Services 23.7 23.4 24.2 0.3 -0.5 1.3 -2.1 Admin & Support/Waste Mgt & Remediation 158.9 157.9 162.8 1.0 -3.9 0.6 -2.4 Administrative & Support Services 151.5 150.0 154.3 1.5 -2.8 1.0 -1.8 Employment Services 49.6 48.7 52.9 0.9 -3.3 1.8 -6.2 Educational Services 43.2 43.1 41.4 0.1 1.8 0.2 4.3 Health Care & Social Assistance 262.6 261.1 251.8 1.5 10.8 0.6 4.3 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 27.8 27.1 27.2 0.7 0.6 2.6 2.2 Accommodation & Food Services 206.9 205.7 208.2 1.2 -1.3 0.6 -0.6 Other Services 91.8 91.1 92.4 0.7 -0.6 0.8 -0.6 Government 380.6 379.0 373.6 1.6 7.0 0.4 1.9 Federal Government 30.2 29.1 31.1 1.1 -0.9 3.8 -2.9 State Government 71.7 71.4 69.8 0.3 1.9 0.4 2.7 State Government Educational Services 38.8 38.6 36.1 0.2 2.7 0.5 7.5 Local Government 278.7 278.5 272.7 0.2 6.0 0.1 2.2 Local Government Educational Services 191.7 192.6 188.5 -0.9 3.2 -0.5 1.7 SOURCE: Texas Workforce Commission June 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 7
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HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT
A GLANCE Q1/10 COST OF LIVING COMPARISONS: SELECTED METROS New York-Newark-Edison NY-NJ-PA 55.6 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont CA 49.6 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA-MD-WV 34.8 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy MA-NH 31.1 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA 14.1 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach FL 9.8 Denver-Aurora CO 4.3 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta GA -5.1 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington TX -7.5 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown TX -8.8 % Below/Above Nationwide Average Source: ACCRA, ACCRA Cost of Living Index HOUSTON MSA EMPLOYMENT 2001-2011 2.65 160 2.60 140 2.55 120 NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (000,000) 2.50 100 2.45 80 12-MONTH CHANGE (000) 2.40 60 2.35 40 2.30 20 2.25 0 2.20 -20 2.15 -40 2.10 -60 2.05 -80 2.00 -100 1.95 -120 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 12-MONTH CHANGE JOBS Source: Texas Workforce Commission June 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 8
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HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT
A GLANCE GOODS-PRODUCING AND SERVICE-PROVIDING EMPLOYMENT HOUSTON MSA 2001-2011 550 2.25 540 2.20 530 2.15 2.10 520 SERVICE-PROVIDING (000,000) 2.05 GOODS-PRODUCING (000) 510 2.00 500 1.95 490 1.90 480 1.85 470 1.80 460 1.75 450 1.70 440 1.65 430 1.60 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 40179 Jan-11 GOODS-PRODUCING JOBS SERVICE-PROVIDING JOBS Source: Texas Workforce Commission UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HOUSTON & U.S. 2001-2011 11 10 9 8 PERCENT OF LABOR FORCE 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 40179 Jan-11 HOUSTON U.S. Source: Texas Workforce Commission June 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 9
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HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT
A GLANCE SPOT MARKET ENERGY PRICES 2001 - 2011 140 28 120 24 HENRY HUB NATURAL GAS ($/MMBTU) WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE ($/BBL) 100 20 80 16 60 12 40 8 20 4 0 0 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 WTI MONTHLY WTI 12-MO AVG GAS MONTHLY GAS 12-MO AVG Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration INFLATION: 12-MONTH CHANGE 2001-2011 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 HOUSTON CPI-U U.S. CPI-U Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics June 2010 ©2010, Greater Houston Partnership Page 10
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