International Report from TIA 2010 ICT Market Review & Forecast predicts strong ICT growth will drive global economic recovery. Watch Webcast on demand at http://www.brighttalk.com/webcast/20746

1. Telecommunications
Industry Association (TIA)
Webinar
ICT Is Key Driver for Global Economy
Analysis Based on TIA’s 2010 ICT Market Review & Forecast
Presented by Economist Arthur Gruen and TIA Director for
International and Government Affairs Nick Fetchko
April 28, 2010

2. 3-5 Year Forecast and
Global in Scope
• Report produced by TIA annually since 1986
• Economists Wilkofsky-Gruen Associates
• Online version through TelecomTV
• Segments information by:
– Geography (U.S., international, global)
– Sectors & services:
• Landline
• Wireless
• Enterprise
• Network equipment
• Broadband
• VoIP
• Data transport
• Internet access
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3. Global ICT Market Forecast
Global telecommunications spending will grow at a
6.3% percent compound annual rate to $4.9T in 2013
from $3.9T in 2009.
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4. International Market Drivers
• Post-recession recovery 2010-13 dominant driver for
next four years
• Wireless subscriptions will increase 1.4B to 5.5B during
next four years, a cumulative 33% advance.
• Large gains in broadband and wireless penetration will
fuel growth in Asia Pacific
• Surging broadband market and wireless growth will
drive spending in Latin America
• Middle East/Africa will be fastest-growing international
region
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5. Overall U.S. Spending
For the forecast period as a whole, growth will average 3.7%
compounded annually to $1.14T in 2013.
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6. Overall Non-U.S. Spending
Overall non-U.S. spending will grow $915B to $3.8T in 2013, a
32% increase from 2009.
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7. Spending Growth by
Component
In 2009, the equipment market fell much faster than the services
market.
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8. Biggest Spenders
The top 12 countries as a group accounted for 47% of total
international telecommunications spending in 2009.
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9. ‘Top’ 12 in Broadband
Europe had the top seven countries in the world and 11 of the
top 12 in broadband penetration.
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10. Internet Subscribers
Because of the broadband surge during the past four years, dial-
up had 44% fewer subscribers in 2009, and by 2013 there will
be 75% fewer subscribers.
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11. BRIC Market Spending
BRIC telecommunications spending will total $954B in 2013,
comprising 25.1% of total international telecommunications
spending, up from 22.8% in 2009 and 16.5% in 2003.
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12. U.S. Trade Deficit
The trade deficit, which declined slightly in 2001, has grown in
each subsequent year.
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13. Overall European Spending
For the forecast period as a whole, the overall telecommunications
market will increase at a 4% compound annual rate to $1.31T in
2013.
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14. The European Market
During 2009-10, equipment will fall 5.8% on a compound annual
basis, while services spending will continue to grow, although at a
modest 1.6% compound annual rate.
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15. European Broadband Access
Revenue
Broadband access spending will increase from $59.7B in 2009
to a projected $87.5B in 2013, a 10% compound annual
increase.
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16. IPTV Spending in Europe
We project IPTV spending in Europe to increase from $3.7B in
2009 to $8.9B in 2013, a 24.7% compound annual gain..
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17. Spending in Latin America
Overall growth for Latin America is projected to be 8.6% in 2010.
Even faster growth of 10.7% is predicted for 2011 as the
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economy expands.

18. Latin America Wireless Growth
We project wireless spending in Latin America to increase at a
9.3% compound annual rate to $134B in 2013 from $94B in
2009.
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19. Overall ICT Spending in Middle
East/Africa
Overall telecommunications spending will rise to $395B in 2013,
growing at a 12.1% compound annual rate, the fastest growth in
terms of percentage of any region.
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20. Overall ICT Spending in Asia
For the 2010–13 period, the overall telecommunications market
is set to expand at an 8.5% compound annual rate, rising to
$1.5T from $1.1T in 2009.
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21. Wireless Subscriber Growth
A projected 340 million increase in India and a 300 million
advance in China will bringing total subscribers in the two
countries to 1.89 billion by 2013, 62% of all wireless subscribers
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in Asia Pacific.

22. Wireless Spending in Asia
During the 2010–2013 forecast period, wireless spending growth
in Asia Pacific will average 10.5% on a compound annual basis,
with spending rising to $415.5B in 2013 from $279B in 2009.
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23. Broadband Penetration in Asia
We project the number of broadband subscribers to rise to 160
million in China by 2013, accounting for 64% of the total
projected growth in broadband subscribers in Asia Pacific..
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24. Asia Broadband Spending
Broadband access spending totaled $31.4B in 2009, a figure we
project will rise to $45.9B by 2013, a 9.9% compound annual
increase..
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25. Equipment Spending in Asia
Spending on wireless devices overtook spending on public
network equipment in 2008 and is now nearly as great as
spending on enterprise equipment.
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26. International Policy Priorities
Trade
- Pending FTA’s with Korea, Colombia, Panama
- Trans Pacific Partnership
- National Export Initiative
- Watching Key Cases
– U.S.-EU dispute over WTO Information Technology Agreement
– U.S.-Brazil Cotton Dispute – Possible cross retaliation on U.S. IPR
- Annual contributions to annual 1377 Review Process and National Trade
Estimate
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27. International Policy Focus:
China
China
-TIA support of USITO
Policy interests
– Indigenous Innovation
• WAPI
• TD-SCDMA
• Indigenous Innovation Product Accreditation
– Type Approval
– Telecom Law
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28. International Policy Focus:
India
India
- U.S.-India ICT Working Group
Policy Interests
- Telecom Equipment Security Approval Regulations and Technology
Transfer Requirement
- 3G and BWA Auctions
- Licensing and regulatory issues (VoIP, license fee disparities,
Remote Access, etc.)
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29. Research Methodology
1. Reference unbiased, respected third-party sources
2. Identify underlying economic, technological, regulatory
and competitive factors
3. Develop models to quantify impact of factors on industry
revenues
4. Create forecast scenario for each causative factor and
assign relative significance weight
5. Apply proprietary mathematical models and algorithms to
compute range of prospective results
6. Tune the results based on professional expertise and
institutional knowledge
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30. How To Order
TIA’s 2010 ICT Market
Review & Forecast
Mobile and Wireless
Communications
Chapter Is Available
Today
http://www.tiaonline.org/market_intelligence/mrf/index.cfm
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31. TIA: A World-Recognized Authority
Since 1924, TIA has represented the global information
and communications technology (ICT) industry
Works through Policy, Standards, Environment,
Intelligence and Networking
3,000 TIA standards developed, including:
New Committee: Smart Communications Devices
Data centers and Cat 5/Cat 6 cabling
Cell towers and CDMA technology
CALEA and P25
Ethernet
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32. TIA Board of Directors
Recognized leadership
Advances association mission
ADTRAN | Alcatel-Lucent | ANDA Networks | AttivaCorp | Cisco
Systems | Ericsson, Inc. | GENBAND, Inc. | Graybar | Henkels & McCoy
| ILS Technology | Intel Corp. | Intersect, Inc.| LGE | Microsoft | Nokia
Siemens Networks | Openwave, Inc. | Panasonic Computer Solutions
Co. | Powerwave Technologies| Qualcomm | Research In Motion |
Sumitomo Electric Lightwave Corporation | Tellabs | Tyco Electronics |
Ulticom, Inc. | Wirefree
Advisors to the Board: FAL Associates | Orca Systems | Telcordia
Technologies
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33. TIA’s Policy Agenda
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34. Thank You!
Contact TIA at
msnyder@tiaonline.org
tiaonline.org
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