Summer 2011 field research proposal for Albert Ching, research assistant for the Future of Urban Mobility Singapore project

1. Can owning a cell phone replace the desire to own a car? The emerging entrepreneurs who are mashing-up intelligence + transportation in developing Asia In India, cell phones 50x as ubiquitous as cars 750+ million cell phones (launched in 1995) vs. 13 million cars (launched 1897) Albert Ching Masters of City Planning Candidate, 2012 Research Assistant, Future of Urban Mobility Singapore

2. The problem Rush hour traffic in Jakarta

3. The private auto lock-in* death spiral(city-scale) City expands “Transport infrastructure in the next 5-10 years to support motorization will lock-in transport-related CO2 emission patterns for the coming 20-30 years in Asia”(ADB 2009) 2 Poor pedestrian walkways Investment in road infrastructure* 1 “The poor typically make 20-30% less trips and rely much more on non-motorised and public transport. The poor have a more limited range of destinations, being more focused on core destinations”(GTZ Sourcebook 2002) Public transport poor Gov’t with limited resources Low ridership Mass transit extremely costly, difficult to implement, and does not reduce congestion (Gakenheimer 2011) Poor with limited mobility Increases congestion “Transport-related CO2 emissions expected to increase 57% worldwide from 2005-30 . . . the majority of these will come from private vehicles”(ADB 2009) Middle- & upper-class purchase private 2- or 4-wheeler* Air pollution 3 Unsustainable levels of CO2 + GHGs

4. The private auto lock-in* death spiral(rational consumer) Cost per trip Quality of mobility(no. of trips, accessibility to destinations, comfort, convenience, productivity) Private auto 1 Private 2-wheeler In developing Asia where public transport and non-motorised options are poor, the quality of mobility increases significantly with access to private vehicles 2 Once consumers are locked-in, they may not perceive the effective increase in cost per trip Para-transit Bicycle Public transport Walk -ing Bicycle Private 2-wheeler Private auto Personal income Auto lock-in*

5. The private auto lock-in* death spiral(aspirational consumer)

6. Most cities in developing Asia still with low per capita incomes and motorization rates Sydney / Melbourne ($34K, 630) Autos per 1000 people 2 Unrestrained motorization Globally, there is a strong correlation between income and private motorization rates Tokyo*($30K, 275) Kuala Lumpur($12K, 270) Seoul*($23K, 220) Bangkok($7K, ~200) Singapore ($43K, 150) Restrained motorization 1 3 Low motorization Beijing / Shanghai($7K, 80) Hong Kong($39K, 80) Jakarta($4K, 50) Manilla($3K, 30) Bangalore($3K, 12) Per capita income (2009 Fixed $PPP) Dhaka($1K, 2) Source: Barter (1999) updated with current statistics from Wikipedia / Gapminder *Income figures only available at country level; Motorization 2004 figures Significant car ownership aspiration (Source: AC Nielson)

7. . . . although lock-in may happen at lower motorization rates due to developing Asia’s higher densities Sydney / Melbourne (630, 20) Autos per 1000 people Do higher densities limit short-term motorization and/or eventually lead to lower density development? Tokyo*(275, 50) Kuala Lumpur(240, 8) Seoul*(220, 90) Bangkok(~200, 65) Singapore (150, 93) Auto lock-in line Beijing / Shanghai (80, 150) Hong Kong(80, 70) Jakarta(50, 100) Manilla(30, 78) Bangalore(12, 130) Low motorization cities all expected to increase urban populations by 10-90% Dhaka(2, 89) Urban density(Persons per hectare) Source: Acharya and Morichi (2005) updated with current statistics from Wikipedia / Gapminder *Motorization 2004 figures

8. Enter the mobile phone, the fastest growing, perhaps highest valued-added product in human history Tracks and locates user travel demand in real-time 1 Enables productive use of travel time 3 Provides real-time travel supply information for users 2 Provides information on new destinations 4 Can become a new vehicle for travel payments 5

9. Intelligence infrastructure way ahead of transportation in most developing Asian cities 3.9x 4.9x 4.7x 35x 53x 201x

10. In developed contexts, an intelligence layer is creating new possibilities that may potentially deter private auto ownership 1 2 3 4 Makes existing shared modes more efficient and on-demand Creates sharing systems for private modes Increases the opportunity cost of driving Brings better- quality goods and services closer to users Intelligence can enlarge the circle of trust by managing user behavior as well as fleet logistics Smartphones have increased the opportunity cost of driving Mobile apps are making transit more convenient, personalized and integrated with the community (In less dense environments) intelligence can more efficiently match real-time para-transit supply and demand Provides economic benefit to drivers Can provide accessibility to more disadvantaged populations (women, poor) Mobile food trucks and robust online delivery services have eliminated the need for some trips while destination (e.g. restaurant) reviews help to ensure that trips are of higher quality Smartphones expect to be pervasive in developing Asia in 3-5 years Online eco-system in early stages in developing Asia What is the magnitude of these impacts relative to other measures e.g. congestion pricing?

11. Even basic mobile phone technology enables more coordinated sharing of transport assets across space and time Technologies required for each one of these functions need not be the most sophisticated ones on the market; Basic SMS and call can sometimes perform better than GPS Tracks and locates user travel demand in real-time 1 Tracks and locates travel supply information in real-time 2 In more dense environments, high demand and high frequency service can relatively efficiently match supply with demand Efficiency gains potentially create new business models and alternatives to private auto ownership Efficiently matches real-time supply and demand 3

12. Entrepreneurs in developing Asia are beginning to pilot ways to use mobile-driven intelligence to create sustainable profit from these transport efficiency gains Normal motorcycle taxi utilization rate = 30% Go-JEK, on-demand motorcycle taxi and goods delivery service in Jakarta, launched January 2011

13. In doing so, entrepreneurs may be offsetting some of the spatial constraints of private auto growth (city-scale) Private automobile / moto substitutes (motorised) Figures are illustrative

14. . . . creating real mobility alternatives to private auto ownership (rational consumer) Quality of mobility(no. of trips, accessibility to destinations, comfort, convenience, productivity) 2 Private auto Shared private auto and bicycle modes more accessible 1 Para-transit more on-demand and potentially integrated with public transit Private 2-wheeler Para-transit Bicycle Public transport Walk -ing Private auto-sharing Mobile phone Bicycle Private 2-wheeler Private auto Personal income Pre-auto lock-in*

15. and developing new aspirations for access rather than ownership (aspirational consumer) Source: “Tech for Transit: Designing a Future System” by Latitude Research + Next American City

16. Summer 2011 Field Research Proposal

17. 1 2 3 4 Makes existing shared modes more efficient and on-demand Creates sharing systems for private modes Increases the opportunity cost of driving Brings better- quality goods and services closer to users Namma Cycle (To be launched Jul 2011) Fazilka Eco-Cabs Launched Jun 2008 1 Go-JEK Launched Feb 2011 To what extent is mobile-driven transport experimentation happening across developing Asia? Methodology: 2-3 day field visit to 1-2 select cities including general observation, targeted interviews, and background research My Teksi (To be launched Aug 2011)

18. Are current experiments sustainable and scalable? What policies might spark and support these efforts? Methodology: 1-3 week field visit and case studies with at least 2 entrepreneurs 2

19. 3 Do customers perceive these intelligently enabled transport modes as substitutes for car ownership? Methodology: Detail the customer experience. If possible, obtain customer feedback and return rates

20. APPENDIX

21. Entrepreneurs in developing Asia are beginning to mash-up new intelligence infrastructure with private automobile substitutes Fazilka eco-cabs, dial-a-rickshaw service launched in Punjab, India in June 2008 and expanding to larger cities of Amritsar and Chandigarh