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A 2000-watt society.
Energy use convergence
for a just and sustainable world. 

Dr. Marco Morosini, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich




                                                                    1
Chasing nanogramms of pollutants in lichens of the most remote places: 
Tristan da Cunha
Mount Makalu, Himalaya
Antarctic Peninsula
Mount Kenya
Gas-chromatograph, University of Siena, University of Ulm
My most remote travel: Zurich – New Zealand
Gas-chromatograph, University of Siena, University of Ulm
8 t CO2 , 37 000 km

CO2 offsetting my travel
Zurich-New Zealand-Zurich:
Definition of the normative scenario
       “2000-watt society”



       In a „2000-watt society“ all energy services together 
       require  a continuous flux of primary energy of 
       no more than  2000 watt per capita 
       (or: TPES* of 60 GJ /year per capita)


       Present requirement in Europe:  6000 watt per capita  


       http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000-watt_society


* TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply
Use of power or of  primary energy*
     - in the year 2000 (Switzerland)
     - and in 2050, in the scenario „2000-watt society“  
              Unit per capita             Year 2000   Year 2050
              watt                          6000        2000
              (continuous flux.
              1 W = 1 J /sec)


              tons oil equivalent (toe)     4.5          1.5
              x year


              gigajoule (GJ)                190          60
              x year


              kilowatt hour (kW.h)         53 000      18 000
              x year

* TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply
Why to cap energy use per capita?


For a growing world population:

1) Non-renewables energies (fossil, atomic)
   are limited, risky and environmental disruptive


2) Renewable energy technologies are not „free“.
     Need input of energy, materials, and surface (and much more...) 
     Can not expand infinitely


3) Global distribution of energy and wealth
     is strongly unequal and potentially social disruptive




                                                                        12
Why 2000 watt per capita?


1) "Biophysical“ argument:
       2000 watt pc would be a precautionary limit
       to avoid excessive perturbation to biodiversity and to biosphere
        (Wolfram Ziegler, 1977; Hans-Peter Dürr 1993)


2) Status quo argument:
   2300 watt pc is the average flux of primary energy in the world now


3) Quality of life indicators show poor correlation
      with growing  energy use beyond 2000 watt pc
       (Vaclav Smil 2003)
 



                                                                          13
Outline


1. History of the normative scenario  “2000-watt society”


1. Examples in Switzerland


2. Objections and obstacles


1. Summary and conclusions




                                                            14
2002:  The Swiss government adopts
       the 2000-watt normative scenario




 ”The scenario of a “2000-watt society” serves as a
 conception, guiding energy and climate protection policy.

 In the long term, this would require a reduction in
 greenhouse gas emissions (primarily CO2) to the sustainable
 level of one tonne per capita,
 with per-capita energy consumption of 500 watts being
 derived from fossil fuels and 1500 watts from renewable
 sources.” 

 Swiss Government
 Sustainable Development Strategy 2002 (and 2008 and 2012) 
                                            www.deza.admin.ch/ressources/resource_en_23811.pdf 
X                                              X




    http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/2000-watt-society

                                                    16
1985   Josè Goldemberg
       UNDP World Energy Assessment




                                      17
1994, Switzerland




                    18
1998: The ETH-domain starts the research programme:

          “2000 watt society – Switzerland”
                     
           Institutions of the ETH-domain:




  ETH-Rat (1998) 2000-Watt-Gesellschaft - Modell Schweiz. 
  Strategie Nachhaltigkeit im ETH-Bereich, Wirtschaftsplattform, ETH Zürich
                                                                              19
2000: The foundation Novatlantis is created
to foster progress towards a 2000-watt society




                                         www.novatlantis.ch/   20
2002, 2004:
Final
reports




              Jochen et al., 2002
              Jochen et al., 2004
                                    21
2010
“A 2000 watt society is compatible with a further growth of GDP in Switzerland”




                                                               Bretschger L. et al. 2010


                                                                                       22
1. History of the normative scenario “2000-watt society”


1. Examples in Switzerland


2. Objections and obstacles


1. Summary and conclusions




                                                           23
2000-2010: The vision of a 2000-watt society
spreads in Switzerland and is adopted by:

-Swiss government, (Sustainable development strategy 2002, 2008,
2012)

-Zurich population: in a town referendum 78% of the voting population of
Zurich decide to write in the town constitution the commitment to a “2000-
watt society”

-Some cantons and towns, in their energy strategies

-All major national scientific institutions: ETH, EPFL, EMPA, WSL, PSI

-Society of engineers and architects (SIA), with guidelines for
   “2000-watt society buildings”

-Zurich, Basel, Geneva: Pilot towns for a “2000-watt society”

                                                                             24
http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/2000-watt-society

                                                25
http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/2000-watt-society

                                                26
http://www.aue.bs.ch/fachbereiche/fachuebergreifendes/nachhaltige-entwicklung/pilotregion.htm

                                                                                                27
The new headquarter (1998) of the Swiss Federal Bureau of Statistics, Neuchatel
        Demand of primary energy: 10 % of a conventional building.
Morosini, Torino, 4.11.2011
                                                                                          28
29
2009: New Monterosa Hut: 100% renewable energies at 2883 m asl

Swiss Federal Institute of Technology and Swiss Alpine Club


                                           - 130 beds
                                           - hot shower for 130
                                           - photovoltaic and thermosolar panels
                                           -emergency backup generator
                                           (agrodiesel)




www.neuemonterosahuette.ch
www.section-monte-rosa.ch/cabanes_4.htm

                                                                                   30
Since 1986: 100% renewable energy at 2126 m asl.

Markus Menn, Postman and Postbus driver in Juf, Avers Valley, Grison, CH



                                            - chalet of 4 apartments
                                            - heat pump (4 ground probes, 80 m)
                                            - thermosolar panels
                                            - hydropower from nearby plant




                                             http://jufferien.ch/             31
1998 and 2007: Federal buildings with energy demand of only
10% of a conventional building




                                EAWAG e EMPA
                                Federal Institutes for research
Federal Office of Statistics,   on water and on materials
Neuchatel, 1998                  Zurich, 2007
                                                                  32
1998: MINERGIE, the major Swiss registered label
      for low-energy buildings




2010:
- MINERGIE:        19 000 certified buildings (20 million m2)
-MINERGIE-Plus:          630 buildings
-MINERGIE-Plus-ECO:      80 buildings

                                                www.minergie.ch
                                                                  33
MINERGIE certified: Headquarters of 2 top 10 companies, Zurich




  Migros Tower (nr 1 retail)    Sunrise Towers (nr 2 phone company)
                                                                  34
1. History of the normative scenario “2000-watt society”


1. Examples in Switzerland


2. Objections and obstacles


1. Summary and conclusions




                                                           35
2008: “Energy saving is out
In its new energy strategy the ETH abandons the 2000-watt society”




                                                                     36
Since 2008: Two diverging strategies



          1) Government, cantons, towns, institutions, business:
          “2000-watt society” in 2050.
          And 1 t CO2 per capita


          2) ETH (since 2008):
          New slogan: “1-t-CO2-society” in 2100-2150.
          4000-6000 watt per capita in Switzerland and worldwide




Morosini, Torino, 4.11.2011
                                                                   37
9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society


1. “Reduce damage, not energy!”

  “A limit should be put to risks and damages caused by
  energy technologies, not to the level of energy use per se.

  With C-poor technologies, the average use of primary
  energy can grow at least up to 6000 watt pc for 9 billion
  humans.”




                                                                38
9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society


2. “Energy limit, nonsense!”

   “A world limit of 2000 watt pc could be either:

  - too low,
  if environmental friendly technologies are adopted.

  - too high,
  if environmental unfriendly technologies
  are still be used and world population soars.”




                                                        39
9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society




3. “Horizon 2050 too soon!”

“2100 or 2150 more plausible.”




                                                     40
9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society



4. “More electrification – and energy - necessary!”

“Fossil fuels can be phased out only through
massive electrification (e.g. private transport; heating)

Trade-off: more-electricity-for-less-carbon.”




                                                            41
9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society




5. “Lifestyles, not negotiable!”

“For a 2/3 reduction of energy use,
more energy efficiency is not enough.

Strong restrictions in lifestyle would be necessary.
Unacceptable!”




                                                       42
9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society




6. Rebound effect outmatches efficiency progress

Higher efficiency lowers the price of energy services,
thus boosts the overall use of energy.




                                                         43
2007




Rubin J., Tal B., Does Energy Efficiency Save Energy? Strateg Econ – 27 November 2007, pp. 4-7
http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/snov07.pdf




                                                                                                 44
Rubin J., Tal B., Does Energy Efficiency Save Energy? Strateg Econ – 27 November
2007, pp. 4-7
http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/snov07.pdf                     45
Rebound effect by lighting, UK, 1900 to 2000:
Efficiency x 100 – but consumption X 1000




                                    http://www.esc.ethz.ch/box_feeder/StrategyE.pdf
                                                                                      46
If alone, efficiency is not the solution.

It is the problem




                                            http://www.novatlantis.ch/
                                                                         47
Two strategies for reducing overall energy use



1) Efficiency:
Doing more with less.                  Reform of technologies


2) Sufficiency*:
Doing less.                            Reform of lifestyles




*sufficiency / frugality / sobriety



                                                                 48
Change priorities !



1) Sufficiency*:
Doing less.                            Reform of lifestyles


2) Efficiency:
Doing more with less.                  Reform of technologies




*sufficiency / frugality / sobriety

                                                                 49
Ecological economist Herman Daly:



“Efficiency-first does not give frugality-second –
it makes frugality less necessary.

Frugality-first gives us efficiency-second
by making it more necessary.”




                                                     50
Examples of collective sufficiency:

- building all trains for no more than 200 km/h
- building all cars for no more than 120 km/h




                                      www.edizioniambiente.it/eda/catalogo/libri/609/

                                                                                    51
9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society


7. Impossible to forecast new inventions.


   “Invention is the mother of necessity”
                         Thorstein Veblen 1857-1929




                                                      52
9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society




8. Advertising:

   Advertising pressure soars
   (ca. 1000 billion U$ in 2004)

   Desires engineers outperform efficiency engineers.




                                                        53
9. Emulative consumption and growing wealth disparities


The “conspicuous consumption “ of the upper classes
stimulates the emulative consumption of the lower classes.

   (s. Thorstein Veblen 1857-1929)




                                                             54
55
Hervè Kempf (Paris newspaper Le Monde):
Restrictions of the material consumption of the upper classes are necessary
in order to slow down the growth of the demand by the entire population.




                 http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hervé_Kempf
                 www.reporterre.fr
                                                                              56
Prof. Robert Frank, Cornell University, USA:
Income taxes to be substituted by progressive consumption taxes.




                                                www.robert-h-frank.com/

                                                                          57
58
2000




       http://www.novatlantis.ch/
                             59
2005




       60
2000: Energy use distribution
  among countries and within countries
  (average + upper decile + lowest decile)




 Spreng D (2005) Distribution of energy consumption and the 2000 W/capita target, Energy Policy 33, 1905–1911
                                                                                                                61
The energy consumption window today (left) and in 2050 (right).
     The upper, ecological boundary (between 2 and 4 kW/capita) refers to the global average.
     The lower boundary (600 W/capita) refers to the poorest decile of the global society in 2050.




Spreng D (2005) Distribution of energy consumption and the 2000 W/capita target, Energy Policy 33, 1905–1911   62
World use of primary energy*:
  Year 2000 to 2050-2100
  Unsustainable transition?




       12 TW                             60 TW ?
   2000 watt x 6 billion
                                      6000 watt x 10 billion




* TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply
                                                               63
Iceland:
16 000 watt per capita average use of primary energy
80 % geothermic




                                                       64
World use of primary energy*:
  Sustainable transition?

          12 TW                         18 TW
       2000 watt x 6 billion          2000 watt x 9 billion




               IC


                     LIC



          2000                              2050
IC: Industrialized countries
LIC: Less Industrialized Countries


* TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply                           65
1. History of the normative scenario “2000-watt society”


1. Examples in Switzerland


2. Objections and obstacles


1. Summary and conclusions




                                                           66
Summary (1/2)


1. All technological energy transformations
   cause environmental costs – not only fossil fuels.
   No energy technology can expand infinitely.
   Renewables neither.


2. A voluntary boundary around 2000 watt pc stimulates
   energy parsimony – including parsimony of fossil fuels.


3. Only a “2000 watt society” in the industrialized countries can:
   a) legitimate them to ask for moderation in energy use worldwide
   b) offer to developing countries a possible model for sustainable
     energy consumption.



                                                                   67
Summary (2/2)

4. Efficiency (“doing more with less”) is ambivalent:

   - it can lower energy use in saturable sectors
   (es. heating, cooling, production)

   - but generally it boosts energy use
   in the society as a whole and in non saturable sectors
   (e.g. private transport, consumer goods, leisure travel)


5. Sufficiency (“doing less”) is necessary and accessible through:

   - voluntary moderation (stimulated by mass communication)

   - incentives, disincentives, prescriptions



                                                                     68
Conclusions


1)For the political community:

“Sufficiency first”
should raise to a priority in the political and cultural arena.



2)For the scientific community:

Technologists and economists should be
more aware of the limited – or counterproductive - effect
of efficiency progress, if this is not accompanied
by a “sufficiency first” policy.

                                                                  69
Symposium for Wolfgang Sachs
Berlin, May 21-22, 2012

„Sufficiency Economy
What is missing on the Rio Agenda…“




Organised by:
-Wuppertal Institute
-Heinrich Böll Foundation


Programme:
http://www.qualenergia.it/sites/default/files/articolo-doc/Agenda%20Symposium%20für%20Wolfgang%20Sach




                                                                                                 70
71
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Spirit_Level:_Why_More_Equal_Societies_Almost_Always_Do_Better



                                                                                                  72
Uso di energia finale pro capite (kWh * anno) in Svizzera
         1980-2009




Morosini, Bologna, 16.11.2011
                                                                     73
Emissioni di gas a effetto serra in Svizzera
            (Mt CO2 equivalenti) 1990-2009




Morosini, Bologna, 16.11.2011
                                                           74

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A 2000-watt society - Energy use convergence for a just and sustainable world. AUT, AUCKLAND , 24.4.2012

  • 1. A 2000-watt society. Energy use convergence for a just and sustainable world.  Dr. Marco Morosini, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich 1
  • 9. 8 t CO2 , 37 000 km CO2 offsetting my travel Zurich-New Zealand-Zurich:
  • 10. Definition of the normative scenario “2000-watt society” In a „2000-watt society“ all energy services together  require  a continuous flux of primary energy of  no more than  2000 watt per capita  (or: TPES* of 60 GJ /year per capita) Present requirement in Europe:  6000 watt per capita   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000-watt_society * TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply
  • 11. Use of power or of  primary energy* - in the year 2000 (Switzerland) - and in 2050, in the scenario „2000-watt society“   Unit per capita Year 2000 Year 2050 watt 6000 2000 (continuous flux. 1 W = 1 J /sec) tons oil equivalent (toe) 4.5  1.5 x year gigajoule (GJ)  190 60 x year kilowatt hour (kW.h)  53 000 18 000 x year * TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply
  • 12. Why to cap energy use per capita? For a growing world population: 1) Non-renewables energies (fossil, atomic) are limited, risky and environmental disruptive 2) Renewable energy technologies are not „free“.   Need input of energy, materials, and surface (and much more...)       Can not expand infinitely 3) Global distribution of energy and wealth      is strongly unequal and potentially social disruptive 12
  • 13. Why 2000 watt per capita? 1) "Biophysical“ argument: 2000 watt pc would be a precautionary limit        to avoid excessive perturbation to biodiversity and to biosphere  (Wolfram Ziegler, 1977; Hans-Peter Dürr 1993) 2) Status quo argument: 2300 watt pc is the average flux of primary energy in the world now 3) Quality of life indicators show poor correlation       with growing  energy use beyond 2000 watt pc        (Vaclav Smil 2003)   13
  • 15. 2002:  The Swiss government adopts the 2000-watt normative scenario ”The scenario of a “2000-watt society” serves as a conception, guiding energy and climate protection policy. In the long term, this would require a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (primarily CO2) to the sustainable level of one tonne per capita, with per-capita energy consumption of 500 watts being derived from fossil fuels and 1500 watts from renewable sources.”  Swiss Government Sustainable Development Strategy 2002 (and 2008 and 2012)  www.deza.admin.ch/ressources/resource_en_23811.pdf 
  • 16. X X http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/2000-watt-society 16
  • 17. 1985 Josè Goldemberg UNDP World Energy Assessment 17
  • 19. 1998: The ETH-domain starts the research programme:           “2000 watt society – Switzerland”                        Institutions of the ETH-domain: ETH-Rat (1998) 2000-Watt-Gesellschaft - Modell Schweiz.  Strategie Nachhaltigkeit im ETH-Bereich, Wirtschaftsplattform, ETH Zürich 19
  • 20. 2000: The foundation Novatlantis is created to foster progress towards a 2000-watt society www.novatlantis.ch/ 20
  • 21. 2002, 2004: Final reports Jochen et al., 2002 Jochen et al., 2004 21
  • 22. 2010 “A 2000 watt society is compatible with a further growth of GDP in Switzerland” Bretschger L. et al. 2010 22
  • 23. 1. History of the normative scenario “2000-watt society” 1. Examples in Switzerland 2. Objections and obstacles 1. Summary and conclusions 23
  • 24. 2000-2010: The vision of a 2000-watt society spreads in Switzerland and is adopted by: -Swiss government, (Sustainable development strategy 2002, 2008, 2012) -Zurich population: in a town referendum 78% of the voting population of Zurich decide to write in the town constitution the commitment to a “2000- watt society” -Some cantons and towns, in their energy strategies -All major national scientific institutions: ETH, EPFL, EMPA, WSL, PSI -Society of engineers and architects (SIA), with guidelines for “2000-watt society buildings” -Zurich, Basel, Geneva: Pilot towns for a “2000-watt society” 24
  • 28. The new headquarter (1998) of the Swiss Federal Bureau of Statistics, Neuchatel Demand of primary energy: 10 % of a conventional building. Morosini, Torino, 4.11.2011 28
  • 29. 29
  • 30. 2009: New Monterosa Hut: 100% renewable energies at 2883 m asl Swiss Federal Institute of Technology and Swiss Alpine Club - 130 beds - hot shower for 130 - photovoltaic and thermosolar panels -emergency backup generator (agrodiesel) www.neuemonterosahuette.ch www.section-monte-rosa.ch/cabanes_4.htm 30
  • 31. Since 1986: 100% renewable energy at 2126 m asl. Markus Menn, Postman and Postbus driver in Juf, Avers Valley, Grison, CH - chalet of 4 apartments - heat pump (4 ground probes, 80 m) - thermosolar panels - hydropower from nearby plant http://jufferien.ch/ 31
  • 32. 1998 and 2007: Federal buildings with energy demand of only 10% of a conventional building EAWAG e EMPA Federal Institutes for research Federal Office of Statistics, on water and on materials Neuchatel, 1998 Zurich, 2007 32
  • 33. 1998: MINERGIE, the major Swiss registered label for low-energy buildings 2010: - MINERGIE: 19 000 certified buildings (20 million m2) -MINERGIE-Plus: 630 buildings -MINERGIE-Plus-ECO: 80 buildings www.minergie.ch 33
  • 34. MINERGIE certified: Headquarters of 2 top 10 companies, Zurich Migros Tower (nr 1 retail) Sunrise Towers (nr 2 phone company) 34
  • 35. 1. History of the normative scenario “2000-watt society” 1. Examples in Switzerland 2. Objections and obstacles 1. Summary and conclusions 35
  • 36. 2008: “Energy saving is out In its new energy strategy the ETH abandons the 2000-watt society” 36
  • 37. Since 2008: Two diverging strategies 1) Government, cantons, towns, institutions, business: “2000-watt society” in 2050. And 1 t CO2 per capita 2) ETH (since 2008): New slogan: “1-t-CO2-society” in 2100-2150. 4000-6000 watt per capita in Switzerland and worldwide Morosini, Torino, 4.11.2011 37
  • 38. 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society 1. “Reduce damage, not energy!” “A limit should be put to risks and damages caused by energy technologies, not to the level of energy use per se. With C-poor technologies, the average use of primary energy can grow at least up to 6000 watt pc for 9 billion humans.” 38
  • 39. 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society 2. “Energy limit, nonsense!” “A world limit of 2000 watt pc could be either: - too low, if environmental friendly technologies are adopted. - too high, if environmental unfriendly technologies are still be used and world population soars.” 39
  • 40. 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society 3. “Horizon 2050 too soon!” “2100 or 2150 more plausible.” 40
  • 41. 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society 4. “More electrification – and energy - necessary!” “Fossil fuels can be phased out only through massive electrification (e.g. private transport; heating) Trade-off: more-electricity-for-less-carbon.” 41
  • 42. 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society 5. “Lifestyles, not negotiable!” “For a 2/3 reduction of energy use, more energy efficiency is not enough. Strong restrictions in lifestyle would be necessary. Unacceptable!” 42
  • 43. 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society 6. Rebound effect outmatches efficiency progress Higher efficiency lowers the price of energy services, thus boosts the overall use of energy. 43
  • 44. 2007 Rubin J., Tal B., Does Energy Efficiency Save Energy? Strateg Econ – 27 November 2007, pp. 4-7 http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/snov07.pdf 44
  • 45. Rubin J., Tal B., Does Energy Efficiency Save Energy? Strateg Econ – 27 November 2007, pp. 4-7 http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/snov07.pdf 45
  • 46. Rebound effect by lighting, UK, 1900 to 2000: Efficiency x 100 – but consumption X 1000 http://www.esc.ethz.ch/box_feeder/StrategyE.pdf 46
  • 47. If alone, efficiency is not the solution. It is the problem http://www.novatlantis.ch/ 47
  • 48. Two strategies for reducing overall energy use 1) Efficiency: Doing more with less.  Reform of technologies 2) Sufficiency*: Doing less.  Reform of lifestyles *sufficiency / frugality / sobriety 48
  • 49. Change priorities ! 1) Sufficiency*: Doing less.  Reform of lifestyles 2) Efficiency: Doing more with less.  Reform of technologies *sufficiency / frugality / sobriety 49
  • 50. Ecological economist Herman Daly: “Efficiency-first does not give frugality-second – it makes frugality less necessary. Frugality-first gives us efficiency-second by making it more necessary.” 50
  • 51. Examples of collective sufficiency: - building all trains for no more than 200 km/h - building all cars for no more than 120 km/h www.edizioniambiente.it/eda/catalogo/libri/609/ 51
  • 52. 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society 7. Impossible to forecast new inventions. “Invention is the mother of necessity” Thorstein Veblen 1857-1929 52
  • 53. 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society 8. Advertising: Advertising pressure soars (ca. 1000 billion U$ in 2004) Desires engineers outperform efficiency engineers. 53
  • 54. 9. Emulative consumption and growing wealth disparities The “conspicuous consumption “ of the upper classes stimulates the emulative consumption of the lower classes. (s. Thorstein Veblen 1857-1929) 54
  • 55. 55
  • 56. Hervè Kempf (Paris newspaper Le Monde): Restrictions of the material consumption of the upper classes are necessary in order to slow down the growth of the demand by the entire population. http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hervé_Kempf www.reporterre.fr 56
  • 57. Prof. Robert Frank, Cornell University, USA: Income taxes to be substituted by progressive consumption taxes. www.robert-h-frank.com/ 57
  • 58. 58
  • 59. 2000 http://www.novatlantis.ch/ 59
  • 60. 2005 60
  • 61. 2000: Energy use distribution among countries and within countries (average + upper decile + lowest decile) Spreng D (2005) Distribution of energy consumption and the 2000 W/capita target, Energy Policy 33, 1905–1911 61
  • 62. The energy consumption window today (left) and in 2050 (right). The upper, ecological boundary (between 2 and 4 kW/capita) refers to the global average. The lower boundary (600 W/capita) refers to the poorest decile of the global society in 2050. Spreng D (2005) Distribution of energy consumption and the 2000 W/capita target, Energy Policy 33, 1905–1911 62
  • 63. World use of primary energy*: Year 2000 to 2050-2100 Unsustainable transition? 12 TW 60 TW ? 2000 watt x 6 billion 6000 watt x 10 billion * TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply 63
  • 64. Iceland: 16 000 watt per capita average use of primary energy 80 % geothermic 64
  • 65. World use of primary energy*: Sustainable transition? 12 TW 18 TW 2000 watt x 6 billion 2000 watt x 9 billion IC LIC 2000 2050 IC: Industrialized countries LIC: Less Industrialized Countries * TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply 65
  • 66. 1. History of the normative scenario “2000-watt society” 1. Examples in Switzerland 2. Objections and obstacles 1. Summary and conclusions 66
  • 67. Summary (1/2) 1. All technological energy transformations cause environmental costs – not only fossil fuels. No energy technology can expand infinitely. Renewables neither. 2. A voluntary boundary around 2000 watt pc stimulates energy parsimony – including parsimony of fossil fuels. 3. Only a “2000 watt society” in the industrialized countries can: a) legitimate them to ask for moderation in energy use worldwide b) offer to developing countries a possible model for sustainable energy consumption. 67
  • 68. Summary (2/2) 4. Efficiency (“doing more with less”) is ambivalent: - it can lower energy use in saturable sectors (es. heating, cooling, production) - but generally it boosts energy use in the society as a whole and in non saturable sectors (e.g. private transport, consumer goods, leisure travel) 5. Sufficiency (“doing less”) is necessary and accessible through: - voluntary moderation (stimulated by mass communication) - incentives, disincentives, prescriptions 68
  • 69. Conclusions 1)For the political community: “Sufficiency first” should raise to a priority in the political and cultural arena. 2)For the scientific community: Technologists and economists should be more aware of the limited – or counterproductive - effect of efficiency progress, if this is not accompanied by a “sufficiency first” policy. 69
  • 70. Symposium for Wolfgang Sachs Berlin, May 21-22, 2012 „Sufficiency Economy What is missing on the Rio Agenda…“ Organised by: -Wuppertal Institute -Heinrich Böll Foundation Programme: http://www.qualenergia.it/sites/default/files/articolo-doc/Agenda%20Symposium%20für%20Wolfgang%20Sach 70
  • 71. 71
  • 73. Uso di energia finale pro capite (kWh * anno) in Svizzera 1980-2009 Morosini, Bologna, 16.11.2011 73
  • 74. Emissioni di gas a effetto serra in Svizzera (Mt CO2 equivalenti) 1990-2009 Morosini, Bologna, 16.11.2011 74

Editor's Notes

  1. Goldemberg: fisico Rettore Universit à di Sao Paulo Ministro Ambiente (1992, Rio summit) e Educazione 2000 World Energy Assessment ONU (UNDP)