The new normal - Alec Hogg, Moneyweb / Panning for gold in muddy waters - Kerrin Howard, Discovery Invest / Lessons learned from the collapse of Lehman Brothers - David Shapiro, Sasfin

1. The new ‘normal’ Alec Hogg 6 – 12 November 2009

2. The new ‘normal’ How the world has been changed by the Great Recession and what we should be doing about it - ALEC HOGG, Moneyweb, November 2009

3. It’s the new normal because it’s here to stay

4. Cause one Globalisation

5. Cause two Person Power

6. Cause three Technology

7. Cause four China

8. Consequence one We’re time poor

10. Consequence three Investment strategy

12. Panning for Gold in Muddy Waters 6 – 12 November 2009 Kerrin Howard Head of Investment Strategy Discovery Invest

14. Gold’s value as an inflation offset Source: Bloomberg Traditionally, gold seen as inflation hedge. Recently, Gold began moving with stocks.

16. Maybe Buffett has a point Source: Bloomberg

19. Gold: Not enough of it Sources: The Tudor Group, Bloomberg, IMF, World Gold Council Recycled gold = 28% of production Annual world Gold production Million ounces Annual production as a percentage of available supplies 80 70 60 50 40 30 90 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 7% 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

20. Central Bank Gold reserves Central Banks globally seen as net buyers going forward Source: Bloomberg Current (mil troy oz) 1 year ago (mil troy oz) % Change World total 967.886 09 Jul 955.255 08 Jul 1.32% Eurozone 347.52 09 Aug 350.92 08 Aug -0.97% United States 261.50 08 Sep 261.50 07 Sep 0.00% Germany 109.58 09 Aug 109.74 08 Aug -0.14% Italy 78.83 09 Aug 78.83 08 Aug 0.00% France 78.60 09 Aug 81.53 08 Aug -3.60% China 33.89 09 Jan 19.29 08 Jan 75.69% Switzerland 33.44 09 Aug 33.84 08 Aug -1.19% Japan 24.60 09 Aug 24.60 08 Aug 0.00% Netherlands 19.69 09 Aug 19.98 08 Aug -1.45% India 11.50 09 Aug 11.50 08 Aug 0.00% Venezuela 11.46 09 Aug 11.46 08 Aug 0.00% Spain 9.05 09 Aug 9.05 08 Aug 0.00% Philippines 5.07 09 Jul 4.28 08 Jul 18.50% Thailand 2.70 09 Aug 2.70 08 Aug 0.00% Australia 2.57 09 Jul 2.57 08 Jul 0.01%

21. More investors want to buy Gold Sources: The Tudor Group, Bloomberg 12m-trailing Gold ETF flows as a percentage of 12-m trailing production Gold ETF Holdings as a percentage of above ground stocks At the end of 2006, the World Gold Council estimated that all the gold ever mined totaled 158,000 tonnes. This can be represented by a cube with an edge length of just 20.2 meters 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 30% 35% 1/3/2006 4/3/2006 7/3/2006 10/3/2006 1/3/2007 4/3/2007 7/3/2007 10/3/2007 1/3/2008 4/3/2008 7/3/2008 10/3/2008 1/3/2009 4/3/2009 7/3/2009 10/3/2009 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0% 3.0% 1/3/2006 3/3/2006 5/3/2006 7/3/2006 9/3/2006 11/3/2006 1/3/2007 3/3/2007 5/3/2007 7/3/2007 9/3/2007 11/3/2007 1/3/2008 3/3/2008 5/3/2008 7/3/2008 9/3/2008 11/3/2008 1/3/2009 3/3/2009 5/3/2009 7/3/2009 9/3/2009

22. USD strength/weakness affects Gold Source: Bloomberg Relative performance Dollar value of total international reserve assets 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0,000 $USbn Apr 70 Apr 73 Apr 76 Apr 79 Apr 82 Apr 85 Apr 88 Apr 91 Apr 94 Apr 97 Apr 00 Apr 03 Apr 06 Apr 09

23. JP Morgan’s economic outlook Global GDP growth: largely funded by government borrowing Consumer prices % year-on-year 2Q09 4Q09 2Q10 4Q10 USA -0.9 1.2 2.1 1.0 Eurozone 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.2 China -1.5 0.9 3.2 2.7 South Africa 7.7 6.3 4.5 4.1 Real GDP growth % (quarterly, over previous period) 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 USA -6.4 -0.7 3.5 3.5 3.0 4.0 4.0 Eurozone -9.6 -0.07 3.0 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 China 8.4 14.8 10.0 9.1 9.0 9.5 9.3 South Africa -6.4 -3.0 0.6 3.4 4.5 3.7 3.6

24. Low interest rates spur Gold demand Source: JP Morgan Official interest rates forecast 12/2009 03/2010 06/2010 09/2010 12/2010 USA 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 Eurozone 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 China 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.58 5.85 South Africa 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.5

25. Gold can be seen as cheap Source: The Tudor Group Gold inflation-adjusted cash prices – average = $556.2 Inflation-adjusted all time high was $2,422 on 21 Jan 1980

26. Back to Buffett: better off elsewhere? Source: Bloomberg

28. South African Gold shares: focus on hedging, margins, marketshare Investec Asset Management’s Sam Houlie, manager of Discovery Equity Fund, is invested in Gold-related companies Deutsche Bank forecasts 2008A 2009E 2010E AngloGold Ashanti Buy EPS (USD) -0.47 -0.41 3.85 P/E (x) - - 11.3 EV/EBITA (x) - 133.6 7.6 Harmony Gold Mining Buy EPS (USD) 0.39 0.43 1.22 P/E (x) 25.4 25.9 9.1 EV/EBITA (x) 28.4 21.2 6.6 Gold Fields Hold EPS (USD) 0.49 1.16 1.8 P/E (x) 20.1 12.3 7.9 EV/EBITA (x) 11.8 7.9 5

29. Takeaway for South Africa Rising Central Bank purchases create market momentum ‘ Weak dollar’ policy is likely to stay in place China = largest export destination; rise in jewelry demand?

30. Lessons learned from the collapse of Lehman Brothers David Shapiro 6 – 12 November 2009

49. Thank you

50. Q&A