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the political economy of


     International Trade
                          Lecture 1


              Introduction
                   and
       The three ideologies of IPE


29 February 2012                              Raymond Cairo
Introductory Remarks I
General approach: IPE not quantitative
Structure
  lectures: in three clusters
  (theory; ITS and regional aspects)
  seminars: just as important!
Assessment
  35% Group Assignment
      Deadline: Week 4, Monday March 19, 16:00hrs
  65% Close Book Exam
      (still faaaaar away………..)
Introductory Remarks II
         A challenging module…….

Focus is not on companies but on
  states/governments and the international
  system →
new and different theoretical frameworks →
much more preparation required →
and on a weekly basis

LEAVING IT ALL TILL THE VERY LAST IS A
         RECIPE FOR FAILURE!
Introductory Remarks III
         ………but also a rewarding one!
Only module in your Programme that centres
  on the international system and the role of
  states in economic and business settings
Highly topical and practical: on a weekly, if
  not daily basis aspects of the Political
  Economy of International Trade make the
  national and international news
Many of the dynamics that apply to the WTO in
  the international context apply to other IGOs
  so if you would like to work for IGOs this
  module will provide you with useful insights
Reading material
Gilpin, Robert (1987). The Political Economy of International
Relations. Oxford: Princeton University Press. Chapters 2 & 5
Suggestions for further reading:
Goddard, C. Roe; Cronin, Patrick and Dash, Kishore C. (eds.)
(2003). International Political Economy: State-Market
Relations in a Changing Global Order. Boulder, CO: Lynne
Rienner Publishers (chapters 2-4, 6, 11-13).
Miller, Raymond C. (2008). International Political Economy:
Contrasting world views. London: Routledge. (All chapters,
especially strong on Marxism.)
Oatley, Thomas (2010). International Political Economy:
Interests and Institutions in the Global Economy. New York:
Longman (Pearson).
Ingham, Barbara (2004). International Economics. Harlow:
Pearson Education Limited (chapter 2)
Gilpin, Robert (2001). Global Political Economy:
Understanding the International Economic Order. Princeton:
Princeton University Press. Chapter 3.
At the end of this lecture
             you should......
...understand what IPE is
...have some idea what the three main ideologies
   are and what they stand for
...see how they differ from each other
...be able to assess whether this is an approach
   you are interested in
...hopefully have enough ammunition to start
   thinking about your assignment (we shall deal
   with the same topic tomorrow at the 1st seminar)
“Theories”
  The three main ideologies (not actual theories!):

                        Ideology:
        “systems of thought and belief by which
[individuals and groups] explain…..how their social
system operates and what principles it exemplifies”
(Heilbroner, 1985, p.107 as in Gilpin, 1987, p.25).

     Applicability does not seem to abate!
           Politics versus economics
What role should the market play in economic life
               and society at large?
Quick introductions I
  Mercantilism / economic nationalism
  (“Realism” in Frieden & Lake GCD chapter 2):

          Politics over Economics

Developed from practice of statesmen from
               14th century

          Effective state-building
Quick introductions II
                 Liberalism
 Economics over Politics; Separate spheres
  (therefore)
No market efficiency with political intermingling

 Building on the Enlightment era 18th century

           Reaction to Mercantilism
Quick introductions III
        Structuralists / Marxists

   Economics determines politics (empirically)

                 Mid-19th century

  Reaction to both Mercantilism and Liberalism


Struggle amongst classes for distribution of wealth
Mercantilism

• All cases: state primacy and economics serves
    to obtain power: but benign and malevolent
                     mercantilism
• No separation between politics and economics
 • Trade is zero-sum, only relative gain matters
     • Self-sufficiency rather than economic
                interdependence (!!!)
• No faith in market mechanism for state building
Some consequences for trade
   • Mercantilist’s lack of faith in market mechanism
            results in a (clearly) visible hand

  • State should do ALL in its power for its protection
    including economic measures (tariffs, quotas, etc.).

• Foreign actors (i.e. countries, companies, international
    organisations!!!) should be treated with prudence
  (benign) or suspicion (more malevolent) → can lead to
               beggar thy neighbour policies

• Protection of infant industry not necessarily temporary

 • From Strategic Trade Policy to more offensive forms

• DO trade but to build the country’s economic position
           which fortifies its political strength
Liberalism
    • Commitment to free markets and minimal state
                 intervention (“laissez faire”)
 • Adam Smith: “The Father of International Economics”
                     (absolute advantage)
• Liberalism amalgamation of many forms: classical, neo-
        classical, Keynsian, monetarist, Austrian, etc.
  • One thing in common: market price mechanism to
     organise and manage a market, achieve maximum
    efficiency, economic growth and individual welfare,
             both nationally and internationally
(more) Liberalism
      • Economic activity and power of the state?
   • Basis of society: individual consumer, the firm or
                          household.
• Individuals behave rationally in the pursuit for certain
     values at the lowest possible cost to themselves
• Rationalism and equilibrium: attempting to obtain an
             objective until cost equal benefits
    → Economic rational behaviour in tandem with the
  market mechanism will lead to equilibrium (at least in
                         the long run)
  • Trade can foster peace amongst nations!!! (EU)
Knowing David from Adam
  Adam Smith: founding work in economics
 An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the
        Wealth of Nations (1776):
• A nation’s wealth depends on its productive capacity
  (even gold and silver can be wasted);
• Laissez-faire creates the best environment to increase
  such productive capacity
• International trade will benefit all trading countries;
  free trade has no losers.

    Absolute advantage and absolute disadvantage…..
Absolutely Adam
Output per unit
  of labour          Suriname              Cuba
 Production of            5                 20
    oranges
 Production of            10                 6
  sugarcanes
Suriname concedes the production of oranges to Cuba and
Cuba concedes the production of sugarcanes to Suriname
…..and this is…..

             David Ricardo
The Principles of Political Economy and
             Taxation (1817):
           But what if there is
              no absolute
            disadvantage?


      Comparative advantage!
…..definitely David
    Output per unit               Suriname                        Cuba
      of labour
     Production of                       4                          24
       oranges
     Production of                       3                           9
      sugarcanes
One unit of Cuba labour produces 24 units of Cuban oranges or 9 units of sugarcanes.
 If trade takes place between the two and Cuba produces oranges it sacrifices 9 units
          of sugarcanes but it will obtain 18 units of sugarcanes from Suriname
                                 (24:4=6 → 6x3=18)
Similarly in the case of Suriname, one unit of labour can produce 4 units of oranges or
3 units of sugarcanes. Suriname produces 3 units of sugarcanes and sacrifices 4 units
                 of oranges but will obtain 8 units of oranges from Cuba
                                  (9:3=3 → 24:3=8)
Further theoretical developments
  More countries, more products, more variables:
                  More theories!

    What determines comparative advantage?
        Relative Factor Endowments determine a
  country’s pattern of trade (Heckscher-Ohlin model)
              Exit labour theory value:
      (How many Cubans does it take to......?)
   Neo-classical theory: more attention to consumer
     and producer behaviour (Jean Baptiste Say)

Quantitative Economics and Econometrics are having
                 numerous field days
Marxists/Structuralists interpretations
   Further developments and other theoretical streams since
                  Karl Marx und Friedrich Engels
• Dialectic approach: society is dynamic, conflictual (class struggle);
  no social harmony or equilibrium

• Although individual rational (liberalist), the capitalist system is
  irrational

• Capitalist system carries traces of its own destruction through
  accumulation by the “have’s”

• Development of productive forces and economic activities leads to
  class struggles throughout history

• Legacies include: Lenin’s and Mao’s interpretation of capitalist
  imperialism and, later, Gramsci (role of hegemony), the
  dependency school (centre and periphery argument), Prebish,
  Gunder Frank, Cardoso, Wallerstein’s Modern world System, etc.
Some consequences for trade
• International trading system:
  rejected by most extreme radicals;
  important changes sought by the more
  benign streams

• State intervention to shield from capitalist
  system (extreme) or from capitalist
  excesses (benign)
Final remark

       Central thread in this module:

which ideological position does the actor take
                    and
   what are the consequences for trade?

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L1 1 slide per page7[1]

  • 1. the political economy of International Trade Lecture 1 Introduction and The three ideologies of IPE 29 February 2012 Raymond Cairo
  • 2. Introductory Remarks I General approach: IPE not quantitative Structure lectures: in three clusters (theory; ITS and regional aspects) seminars: just as important! Assessment 35% Group Assignment Deadline: Week 4, Monday March 19, 16:00hrs 65% Close Book Exam (still faaaaar away………..)
  • 3. Introductory Remarks II A challenging module……. Focus is not on companies but on states/governments and the international system → new and different theoretical frameworks → much more preparation required → and on a weekly basis LEAVING IT ALL TILL THE VERY LAST IS A RECIPE FOR FAILURE!
  • 4. Introductory Remarks III ………but also a rewarding one! Only module in your Programme that centres on the international system and the role of states in economic and business settings Highly topical and practical: on a weekly, if not daily basis aspects of the Political Economy of International Trade make the national and international news Many of the dynamics that apply to the WTO in the international context apply to other IGOs so if you would like to work for IGOs this module will provide you with useful insights
  • 5. Reading material Gilpin, Robert (1987). The Political Economy of International Relations. Oxford: Princeton University Press. Chapters 2 & 5 Suggestions for further reading: Goddard, C. Roe; Cronin, Patrick and Dash, Kishore C. (eds.) (2003). International Political Economy: State-Market Relations in a Changing Global Order. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers (chapters 2-4, 6, 11-13). Miller, Raymond C. (2008). International Political Economy: Contrasting world views. London: Routledge. (All chapters, especially strong on Marxism.) Oatley, Thomas (2010). International Political Economy: Interests and Institutions in the Global Economy. New York: Longman (Pearson). Ingham, Barbara (2004). International Economics. Harlow: Pearson Education Limited (chapter 2) Gilpin, Robert (2001). Global Political Economy: Understanding the International Economic Order. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Chapter 3.
  • 6. At the end of this lecture you should...... ...understand what IPE is ...have some idea what the three main ideologies are and what they stand for ...see how they differ from each other ...be able to assess whether this is an approach you are interested in ...hopefully have enough ammunition to start thinking about your assignment (we shall deal with the same topic tomorrow at the 1st seminar)
  • 7. “Theories” The three main ideologies (not actual theories!): Ideology: “systems of thought and belief by which [individuals and groups] explain…..how their social system operates and what principles it exemplifies” (Heilbroner, 1985, p.107 as in Gilpin, 1987, p.25). Applicability does not seem to abate! Politics versus economics What role should the market play in economic life and society at large?
  • 8. Quick introductions I Mercantilism / economic nationalism (“Realism” in Frieden & Lake GCD chapter 2): Politics over Economics Developed from practice of statesmen from 14th century Effective state-building
  • 9. Quick introductions II Liberalism Economics over Politics; Separate spheres (therefore) No market efficiency with political intermingling Building on the Enlightment era 18th century Reaction to Mercantilism
  • 10. Quick introductions III Structuralists / Marxists Economics determines politics (empirically) Mid-19th century Reaction to both Mercantilism and Liberalism Struggle amongst classes for distribution of wealth
  • 11. Mercantilism • All cases: state primacy and economics serves to obtain power: but benign and malevolent mercantilism • No separation between politics and economics • Trade is zero-sum, only relative gain matters • Self-sufficiency rather than economic interdependence (!!!) • No faith in market mechanism for state building
  • 12. Some consequences for trade • Mercantilist’s lack of faith in market mechanism results in a (clearly) visible hand • State should do ALL in its power for its protection including economic measures (tariffs, quotas, etc.). • Foreign actors (i.e. countries, companies, international organisations!!!) should be treated with prudence (benign) or suspicion (more malevolent) → can lead to beggar thy neighbour policies • Protection of infant industry not necessarily temporary • From Strategic Trade Policy to more offensive forms • DO trade but to build the country’s economic position which fortifies its political strength
  • 13. Liberalism • Commitment to free markets and minimal state intervention (“laissez faire”) • Adam Smith: “The Father of International Economics” (absolute advantage) • Liberalism amalgamation of many forms: classical, neo- classical, Keynsian, monetarist, Austrian, etc. • One thing in common: market price mechanism to organise and manage a market, achieve maximum efficiency, economic growth and individual welfare, both nationally and internationally
  • 14. (more) Liberalism • Economic activity and power of the state? • Basis of society: individual consumer, the firm or household. • Individuals behave rationally in the pursuit for certain values at the lowest possible cost to themselves • Rationalism and equilibrium: attempting to obtain an objective until cost equal benefits → Economic rational behaviour in tandem with the market mechanism will lead to equilibrium (at least in the long run) • Trade can foster peace amongst nations!!! (EU)
  • 15. Knowing David from Adam Adam Smith: founding work in economics An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (1776): • A nation’s wealth depends on its productive capacity (even gold and silver can be wasted); • Laissez-faire creates the best environment to increase such productive capacity • International trade will benefit all trading countries; free trade has no losers. Absolute advantage and absolute disadvantage…..
  • 16. Absolutely Adam Output per unit of labour Suriname Cuba Production of 5 20 oranges Production of 10 6 sugarcanes Suriname concedes the production of oranges to Cuba and Cuba concedes the production of sugarcanes to Suriname
  • 17. …..and this is….. David Ricardo The Principles of Political Economy and Taxation (1817): But what if there is no absolute disadvantage? Comparative advantage!
  • 18. …..definitely David Output per unit Suriname Cuba of labour Production of 4 24 oranges Production of 3 9 sugarcanes One unit of Cuba labour produces 24 units of Cuban oranges or 9 units of sugarcanes. If trade takes place between the two and Cuba produces oranges it sacrifices 9 units of sugarcanes but it will obtain 18 units of sugarcanes from Suriname (24:4=6 → 6x3=18) Similarly in the case of Suriname, one unit of labour can produce 4 units of oranges or 3 units of sugarcanes. Suriname produces 3 units of sugarcanes and sacrifices 4 units of oranges but will obtain 8 units of oranges from Cuba (9:3=3 → 24:3=8)
  • 19. Further theoretical developments More countries, more products, more variables: More theories! What determines comparative advantage? Relative Factor Endowments determine a country’s pattern of trade (Heckscher-Ohlin model) Exit labour theory value: (How many Cubans does it take to......?) Neo-classical theory: more attention to consumer and producer behaviour (Jean Baptiste Say) Quantitative Economics and Econometrics are having numerous field days
  • 20. Marxists/Structuralists interpretations Further developments and other theoretical streams since Karl Marx und Friedrich Engels • Dialectic approach: society is dynamic, conflictual (class struggle); no social harmony or equilibrium • Although individual rational (liberalist), the capitalist system is irrational • Capitalist system carries traces of its own destruction through accumulation by the “have’s” • Development of productive forces and economic activities leads to class struggles throughout history • Legacies include: Lenin’s and Mao’s interpretation of capitalist imperialism and, later, Gramsci (role of hegemony), the dependency school (centre and periphery argument), Prebish, Gunder Frank, Cardoso, Wallerstein’s Modern world System, etc.
  • 21. Some consequences for trade • International trading system: rejected by most extreme radicals; important changes sought by the more benign streams • State intervention to shield from capitalist system (extreme) or from capitalist excesses (benign)
  • 22. Final remark Central thread in this module: which ideological position does the actor take and what are the consequences for trade?