1. From Pyramids to Pancakes
Towards a connected world
Martijn Kriens | @martijnkriens

2. Martijn Kriens
Business|Science|Government|Innovation|ICT
|eHealth
Cloud|Pancakes|Upstream|RTLNieuws|iCrowd
s|AIM|IIPSaaS
WirelessArnhem|Vlieger|Recalcitrant| ....
@martijnkriens | martijn@upstream.nl

3. UPSTREAM
Marketingfact, TravelNext, FoodNext,
SportNext, UMCN St. Radboud, Deli
XL, HAN, Rabobank, ING, WNF,
Efteling, TUI Nederland, Omroep
Gelderland, TMG, Arnhem Dichtbij,
RTL, Cito, Bank van Morgen, AIM,
Gemeente Nijmegen, RTLNieuws
@upstream | www.upstream.nl

5. De Markt
• 7,8 miljoen m2 leeg (17%)
• Gemiddeld van 983 m2 naar 921 m2 (6,3%)
– 100 tot 250 groeit, groot gaat naar kleiner
• 30% winkels leeg in 2020 (Cor Molenaar)
• Prijsdaling tussen 5% en 40% (incentives)
• Crisis?
Cijfers NVM en Dynamis

6. Brainstorm
Wat zijn de belangrijkste besliscriteria voor huurders?

7. “Our writing equipment
takes part in the forming of
our thoughts”
Friedrich Nietzsche
1844 - 1900

9. Conversation and communication

10. Conversation and communication

11. Conversation and communication

12. Conversation and communication
Page  12

13. Broadcast

14. Community

15. Connected

16. From
the
century
of my
father
to the
century
of my
son

17. Digital realities
The double helix of digital and
physical realities

18. Mixed realities
Physical and Digital

19. Digital space

20. DigitalPub

21. 1 Billion digital friends

22. Digital marketplace

23. Digital search

24. Digital
life

26. The
Digital
world is
just as
real as
the
physical
world

27. Farmville is valued at 25 Billion dollar.
Their business model is selling:
Digital
“farming Equipment” …

29. Facebook
Daily in NL
12.000.000

30. Twitter
Daily tweets in NL
5.000.000

31. Sources Dutch social web
In the Netherlands
390.000

33. Sherry Turkle

34. Immersion?

35. Social?

36. Communication?

37. Not just the technology
People helping each other is scalable
- Customers
- Patients
- …

38. Direct communication
from politician and
with politicians

41. The Paradigm Shift for LEGO
From To
100 LEGO designers ave. age 29 1,000,000 LEGO designers ave.age 9
300 new LEGO sets p.a. 3,000,000 new LEGO sets p.a.
Predefined, individual Self-selected, interactive and
LEGO (play) experiences social LEGO (play) experiences
Trying to understand Consumers KNOWING the consumer
Only product innovation Also PROCESS innovation
Product & SERVICE and
Product revenue streams EXPERIENCE revenue streams
Bron: Sophie Jenkins

42. The Paradigm Shift for LEGO
Past consumer experience:
LEGO defined Experience
Future consumer experience:
LEGO defined Consumer Experience
Bron: Sophie Jenkins

43. InnoCentive

44. Innovatie 3.0
My Starbucks Idea

45. Innovatie 3.0
Dell IdeaStorm

46. Innovatie 3.0
Battle of Concepts

47. Innovatie 3.0
#durftevragen #dtv

48. Innovatie 3.0
Prosper

49. Innovatie 3.0
Kiva, loans that change lives

50. Innovatie 3.0
Kickstarter, funding platform for creative projects

51. Innovatie 3.0
TenPages.com

52. Innovatie 3.0
Quirky.com

58. Changes in Government
“We the people”

59. Government
“At it’s core, Government is what we do
together that we can not do on our own”
Tim O’Reilly

60. Obama
"Your role
as a citizen
does not
end with
your vote!"

61. Icelandic constitution

62. Icelandic constitution

63. “Verbeter de buurt”

64. Crowdsourcing policy

65. Changes in Health-care
“Patiënt in control”

66. Patient communities

67. Marketplace for care

68. Cooperative Travel

69. Hilton
• Founded in 1919
• 3897 locations, 642.000
rooms in 91 countries
• 135.000 employees

70. Booking.com
• 3000 employees
worldwide
• 30 million visitors
• 250.000 hotels in 177
countries
• 350.000 rooms per
night
• Estabished in 1996

71. Airbnb.com
• Founded 2008
• 192 countries, 26.000
cities, 200.000 listings
• 40.000 reservations per
day
• 300 employees

72. Couchsurfing.org
• 4.8 million homes, 94.000
cities in 207 countriies
• Launched in 2004 as a
volunteer organisation
• Changing to commercial
organisation

73. Google.com
• Ecosystem of 80 billion
turnover for 1,8 million
companies
• 32.000 employees
• Google shopping, local >
local sites

74. Age Rooms Hotels Countries
Couchsurfing 8 1.200.000 237
Intercontinental 60 645.000 4400 100
Accor 43 500.000 4100 90
Hilton 90 3400 79
Marriott 50 3000 67
Source: Robin Chase

75. The undertow
Many effects, few causes

76. Crisis

77. (1 − z3 / 6) / (z − z2 / 2)2 + c (1 − z3 / 6) / (z − z2 / 2)2 + c

78. Hidden Themes
That drive the change
Scalability

80. Hidden Themes
That drive the change
Communication

82. Voorspellende waarde
Op basis van aantallen berichten, berekend op basis van trendlijnen
Premier-debat
VVD 41
PVDA 40
SP 15
PVV 15
CDA 12

83. Hidden Themes
That drive the change
Cooperation

85. Hidden Themes
That drive the change
Anytime
Anyplace

87. Hidden Themes
That drive the change
Transparancy

89. Project X Haren
Tweet from NOS on 15:29 starts the real buzz on social
media

90. Hidden Themes
That drive the change
• Scalability/Adaptability
• Direct Communication
• Seamless Cooperation
• Anytime, Anywhere
• Transparency

91. Transaction cost & Firm size
Breakup in logical and more
consistent units

92. Models for cooperation
Theatre production model
Common interest model

93. Blackboard organisation
Data

94. Coordination through Markets
Supply Demand

95. From Pyramids to Pancakes

96. New paradigm
“The invisible hand”
Cooperation without Coordination
Clay Shirky

97. Marketingfacts jaarboek 2012
http://www.marketingfacts.nl/jaarboek/

98. UPSTREAM
It’s all about Content, Conversation and Collaboration
CONTENT
Questions?
CONVERSATION
COLLABORATION
@martijnkriens | martijn@upstream.nl | Martijn Kriens

99. Brainstorm

100. Nieuwe diensten
• Overvloedige capaciteit delen
– BuzzCar, Couchsurfing
• Gebruikers grootschalig laten meedenken
– InnoCentive, Lego, Quirky
• Zonder fysieke beperking
– Beppe Grillo
• Communities mee laten sturen
– PatientsLikeMe, MijnZorgNet
• Transparantie door peer review
– Marktplaats, Amazon, eBay
• …

101. http://www.slideshare.net/FundamentAllMedia/presentatie-erik-van-der-wal-bouwfonds-ontwikkeling
80% van de woningen in 5 weken verkocht

107. Ontwikkeling
• AdHoc: goedkoop en tijdelijk
• Seats2Meet: flexibel en interessant netwerk
• TheHubb: sterke community
• Regus: Anytime, Anyplace
• Klant
– Is niet meer aan een plek gebonden
– Is minder gericht op status
– Moet bezuinigen / is op zoek naar omzet
– Kleinere (netwerk) organisaties / ZZP’ers

108. Uitdaging kantorenmarkt
- Van bezit naar beschikbaarheid
- Niet voor maar met de klant

109. Thank you!

110. Gebaseerd op voorgaand verhaal: wat zullen
de belangrijkste trends zijn voor kantoren en
winkels de komende 5 jaar
1 idee per kaartje
Bondig schrijven

111. Hoe kan bouwfonds inspelen op de trend
naar beschikbaarheid ipv bezit
1 idee per kaartje
Bondig schrijven

112. Hoe kan Bouwfonds inspelen op de trend
om klanten / huurders zichzelf te laten
helpen
1 idee per kaartje
Bondig schrijven

113. Brainstorm 2
Welke acties zijn op korte termijn op te pakken?
1 idee per kaartje
Bondig schrijven

114. Predicting the future

115. The winners that takes all
The vanishing local notables
The struggling long tail

116. Robert
Coase
The Nature of the Firm (1937)

117. The new electronic interdependence
recreates the world in the image of a
global village
Marshall McLuhan

119. Agile
Individuals and Interactions over Processes and tools
Working implementations over Comprehensive documentation
Customer collaboration over Contract negotiation
Responding to change over Following a plan

120. Agile manifesto
• Our highest priority is to satisfy the customer through early and continuous delivery of
valuable software.
• Welcome changing requirements, even late in development. Agile processes harness
change for the customer's competitive advantage.
• Deliver working software frequently, from a couple of weeks to a couple of months, with a
preference to the shorter timescale.
• Business people and developers must work together daily throughout the project.
• Build projects around motivated individuals. Give them the environment and support they
need, and trust them to get the job done.
• The most efficient and effective method of conveying information to and within a
development team is face-to-face conversation.
• Working software is the primary measure of progress.
• Agile processes promote sustainable development. The sponsors, developers, and users
should be able to maintain a constant pace indefinitely.
• Continuous attention to technical excellence and good design enhances agility.
• Simplicity--the art of maximizing the amount of work not done--is essential.
• The best architectures, requirements, and designs emerge from self-organizing teams.
• At regular intervals, the team reflects on how to become more effective, then tunes and
adjusts its behavior accordingly.