Catalan Political Opinion Barometer - November 2013 . 3rd Wave Source: CEO Data: 22.11.13.

1. Press report
Political Opinion Barometer
31
3rd wave 2013

2. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013
Contents
Contents
1. Technical specifications
2. Main results
Press report based on the results of the Political Opinion Barometer. 3rd wave 2013
Corresponding to the Register of Opinion Studies number 733
2

3. 3
1
Technical specifications
Press report, Public Opinion Barometer (BOP). 3nd wave 2013

4. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013
Technical specifications
Summary
Level of confidence:
95%
Variance
p=q=50%
Sample size:
2,000 individuals
Sampling error:
+ 2.69%
Scope:
Catalonia
Univers:
Spanish citizens of 18 years of age and more who live in Catalonia
Method of data collection:
Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI)
Sampling procedure:
Stratification by province and town size, with selection of last sample units (individuals) using sex and age crossed
quotas.
Town size is divided into 6 categories:
• less or equal to 2,000 inhabitants
• from 2,001 and 10,000 inhabitants
• from 10,001 and 50,000 inhabitants
• from 50,001 and 150,000 inhabitants
• from 150,001 and 1,000,000 inhabitants
• more than 1 million inhabitants
To calculate the quotas we use the official statistics from the Padró continu de població from the year 2012. The age
quotas correspond to the following intervals:
• 18 to 34 years of age
• 35 to 49 years of age
• 50 to 64 years of age
• 65 and more years of age
4

5. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013
Technical specifications
Sample size:
2,000 interviews with the following territorial distribution:
• Barcelona
800
• Girona
400
• Lleida
400
• Tarragona
400
Allocation:
Not proportional. To obtain representative figures for the whole Catalan population, the results have been weighted by
the following territorial weights:
• Barcelona
1.864609957
• Girona
0.465810004
• Lleida
0.286327498
• Tarragona
0.518642584
Sampling error:
The overall margin of error of the survey is + 2.69%, for a confidence level of 95% (1.96 sigma) and under the assumption
of maximum indetermination (p=q=50%). In each province the margins of error are:
• Barcelona
+ 3.47%
• Girona
+ 4.90%
• Lleida
+ 4.90%
• Tarragona
+ 4.90%
Fieldwork:
The fieldwork has been performed by GESOP, from the 4 to the 14 of November, 2013.
5

6. 6
2
Main results
Press report, Political Opinion Barometer (BOP). 3rd wave 2013

7. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013
Political values
4.5 Relations between Catalonia and Spain
Question 27
Do you think that Catalonia has achieved...
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
80
70,4
70
60
50
40
30
20,6
20
10
4,3
3,9
0,8
0
Too much autonomy
A sufficient level of
autonomy
An insufficient level of
autonomy
Do not know
Do not answer
100
80
71,6
71,2
72,5
70,4
18,6
68,4
19,2
19,1
20,6
60
40
21,3
20
0
3,3
June 12
3,9
Oct 12
Too much
3,8
Feb.13
Sufficient
4,6
June 13
Insufficient
3,9
Nov. 13
7

8. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013
Political values
Question 28
Do you believe that Catalonia should be...
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
48,5
50
40
30
18,6
20
10
21,3
5,4
4,0
2,2
0
A region of Spain
An autonomous A state in a federal An independent
community of
Spain
state
Spain
Do not know
30
46,4
44,3
50
40
Do not answer
34,0
28,7
25,5
22,4
20
21,2
21,3
25,4
19,1
10
48,5
47,0
5,7
20,7
4,4
4,0
22,8
18,6
4,6
5,4
0
June 12
Oct 12
Region
Feb.13
AC
Federal state
June 13
Nov. 13
Independent state
8

9. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013
Political values
Question 39
And more precisely, if a referendum to decide the independence of Catalonia was to be held
tomorrow, what would you do?
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
Vote in favor of independence
54,7
Vote against independence
22,1
Abstain / would not vote
15,7
Other responses
1,3
Do not know
4,9
Do not answer
1,4
0
20
40
60
80
100
80
60
51,1
57,0
54,7
55,6
40
23,4
21,1
20,7
20,5
54,7
22,1
20
21,1
14,3
17,0
15,3
15,7
0
June 12
Oct 12
Vote in favor of independence
Feb.13
June 13
Vote against independence
Nov. 13
Abstain / would not vote
9

10. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013
Political values
Question 39
And more precisely, if a referendum to decide the independence of Catalonia was to be held
tomorrow, what would you do?
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
Vote intention, elections to the Parliament of Catalonia
Vote in favor of independence
54,7
0,0
80,6
94,0
12,3
52,2
0,7
81,8
Vote against independence
22,1
87,2
5,6
1,3
61,2
23,2
83,6
3,0
Abstain / would not vote
15,7
9,8
9,1
3,3
18,0
15,5
14,0
7,7
Others
1,3
1,1
0,1
0,4
3,6
2,3
0,5
4,7
Do not know
4,9
1,9
3,5
0,9
5,0
4,9
1,2
2,7
Do not answer
1,4
0,0
1,2
0,0
0,0
1,9
0,0
0,0
Unweighted
2000
2000
28
27
365
345
452
423
1
03
13
1
1
05
1
24
1
00
1
05
84
79
Weighted
(*) No n significant resultats
10

11. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013
Elections to the Parliament of Catalonia
11
5.2 Elections to the Catalan Parliament: vote intention
If elections to the Catalan Parliament were to be held tomorrow, what party or coalition would
you vote for?
Question 32
(N=2,000; simple response; %;)
PPC
1,4
CIU
17,2
ERC
21,1
PSC
5,6
ICV-EUiA
6,2
C's
5,3
CUP
Previous Barometer
3,9
Others
2,0
PPC
2,1
CIU
Blank vote
4,8
18,2
ERC
22,0
PSC
Null vote
6,9
ICV-EUiA
0,8
7,4
C's
Will not vote
CUP
10,8
Undecided
5,1
4,8
Others
1,4
Blank vote
16,3
4,8
Null vote
1,2
Will not vote
Do not answer
4,6
9,9
Undecided
12,7
Do not answer
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
3,5
0
10
20
30
40
50

12. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013
Elections to the Parliament of Catalonia
Question 30
12
And could you tell me to what party or coalition did you vote for in the last elections to
the Parliament of Catalonia?
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
2,7
PPC
8,71
CIU
ERC
13,7
9,20
PSC
8,4
9,69
ICV-EUIA
7,7
6,64
3,0
C's
5,08
2,7
CUP
Others
27,2
20,62
2,34
3,89
2,0
Previous Barometer
PPC
2,7
Blank vote
2,9
CIU
0,98
26,4
ERC
0,1
Null vote
17,2
PSC
0,61
8,3
ICV-EUIA
16,4
Did not vote
C's
32,24
4,2
Others
1,7
Blank vote
2,4
Null vote
8,1
Do not answer
3,7
CUP
5,4
Do not know
7,3
0,7
Did not vote
15,0
Do not know
0
5
10
15
Real vote 2012 (% over the electoral census)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
3,1
Do not…
7,1
0
10
20
30
40
50

13. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013
Electoral behaviour
5.4 Elections to the Congreso de los Diputados: vote intention
If elections to the Congreso de los Diputados were to be held tomorrow, what
party or coalition would you vote for?
Question 36
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
PPC
2,1
CIU
16,6
ERC
17,6
PSC
8,3
ICV-EUiA
6,4
C's
2,7
CUP
2,4
Others
2,8
Previous Barometer
PPC
3,6
CIU
18,6
ERC
Blank vote
5,8
17,2
PSC
9,3
ICV-EUiA
Null vote
1,0
7,7
C's
2,9
CUP
Will not vote
11,8
3,2
Others
1,6
Blank vote
Undecided
Do not answer
1,3
Will not vote
9,7
Undecided
4,8
0
6,6
Null vote
17,7
15,1
Do not answer
10
20
30
40
50
3,1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
13

14. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013
Electoral behaviour
If elections to the Congreso de los Diputados were to be held tomorrow, what
party or coalition would you vote for?
Pregunta 34
(N=2,000; simple response; %)
3,8
PPC
13,63
CIU
ERC
19,31
4,65
9,9
13,0
PSC
ICV-EUiA
21,6
17,52
5,32
C's
0,8
CUP
7,4
0,4
Others
Baròmetre anterior
1,4
4,13
PPC
Blank vote
3,0
5,7
CIU
1,22
21,1
ERC
Null vote
0,6
PSC
1,06
13,8
ICV-EUiA
21,4
Did not vote
Do not know
12,5
6,3
C's
33,18
1,0
CUP
0,2
Others
9,0
1,4
Blank vote
2,7
Null vote
Do not answer
7,5
0,8
Did not vote
20,5
Do not know
0
5
10
15
20
Real vote 2011 (% over electoral census)
25
30
35
40
45
50
7,4
Do not answer
6,6
0
10
20
30
40
50
14

15. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013
Electoral behaviour
5.7 Ratings of political leaders
Question 37b
How do you rate the political performance of these leaders? Please rate them in a scale from 0
to 10, where 0 is very poor and 10 is excellent.
(Base: know the leader; simple response; average)
Oriol Junqueras
5,61
Alfred Bosch
5,21
David Fernàndez
5,07
Joan Herrera
4,78
Artur Mas
4,75
Joan Coscubiela
4,47
Josep Antoni Duran i Lleida
4,10
Jordi Martí
3,89
Pere Navarro
3,44
Albert Rivera
3,08
Jorge Fernández Díaz
2,47
Alícia Sánchez-Camacho
1,88
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
15

16. Appendix 1
16
7.4 Cross-tabulation of vote recall and vote intention to the elections of the Parliament of Catalonia.
Vote recall, Parliament of Catalonia 2012
Others/Null vote
Blank
vote
Will not
vote
DK/NA
Total
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2,0
0.8
1.4
2.4
52.4
1.8
2.8
0.3
0.0
0.0
5.1
1.0
10.3
4.3
17.2
0.9
21.5
82.5
4.1
7.1
0.0
7.9
16.3
1.5
8.4
8.2
21.1
1.4
0.8
0.0
53.8
1.6
0.9
0.0
1.1
0.9
3.6
0.6
5.6
0.5
1.0
0.8
3.5
59.6
0.8
0.0
1.2
0.0
4.3
1.4
6.2
28.6
1.5
0.0
3.6
2.4
75.7
0.0
1.1
14.8
3.6
2.3
5.3
0.0
1.0
2.9
0.0
9.0
0.0
76.0
10.7
0.0
1.6
0.6
3.9
Others/Null vote
0.0
1.2
0.7
1.1
1.6
3.2
4.5
42.1
3.5
2.9
3.1
2.7
Blank vote
1.0
2.3
1.5
2.6
1.9
8.4
1.4
4.4
50.6
7.6
4.4
4.8
Will not vote
13.6
5.1
0.8
9.6
2.9
0.9
0.9
2.6
19.8
35.7
10.8
10.9
DK/NA
18.7
13.0
9.0
19.0
13.7
10.3
9.3
15.6
8.0
20.0
63.5
20.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
59
54
582
543
304
275
1
49
1
68
19
1
1
54
52
59
61
53
39
43
52
54
31
6
328
267
270
2000
2000
Vote intention
33.1
Total
Unweighted
Weitghted
(*) No n significant resultats

17. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013
Annex 2
Elections to the Parliament of Catalonia
Political Opinion Barometer, 3rd wave 2013
Direct vote
Vote
intention
estimates
Sit
(in %)
(in % over valid estimates
vote)
Resultats 2012
%VV
escons
CiU
17.2
22.2
34-36
30.7
50
ERC
21.1
24.2
37-39
13.7
21
PSC
5.6
11.1
14-16
14.4
20
PP
1.4
9.4
13-14
13.0
19
ICV-EUiA
6.2
9.8
12-14
9.9
13
C's
5.3
12.2
15-17
7.6
9
CUP
3.9
5.2
6-7
3.5
3
others
2.0
3.3
5.7
---
blank vote
4.8
2.6
1.5
---
null vote
0.8
Abstention (“will not vote")
10.8
Undecided
16.3
Do not answer
4.6
Turn out: 60%
17

18. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013
Appendix 2
Elections to the Congreso de los Diputados
Political Opinion Barometer, 3rd wave 2013
Direct
Vote
intention
estimates
Sit
estimates
(in % over valid
(in %)
vote)
Results 2011
%VV
sits
CiU
16.6
22.2
13-14
29.4
16
PSC
8.3
17.0
8-9
26.7
14
PP
2.1
12.7
7-8
20.7
11
ICV-EUiA
6.4
9.0
3
8.1
3
ERC
17.6
20.6
11-12
7.1
3
C's
2.7
9.2
3-4
CUP
2.4
4.0
0-1
6.3
0
others
2.8
3.5
blank votes
5.8
1.8
null votes
1.0
Abstention (“will not vote")
11.8
Undecided
17.7
Do not answer
4.8
Turn out: 65%
1.9
18