State of the Market: Nordic mining in a global context Professor Magnus Ericsson, Director & Co-founder, Raw Materials Group Mining On Top: Helsinki 16-17 September 2013 | Helsinki

1. State of the Market:
Nordic mining
in a
global context
Thoriumdrawing:KaiandersSempler.
Magnus Ericsson
Mining on Top Helsinki, 16/17th September 2013

2. Agenda
• Background
• Metal prices
• Ore production
• Exploration
• Capex
• Nordic countries

3. Manganese drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
Background

4. Special properties of metals
• High strength
• Affordable cost
• Conduct heat and electricity
• Beautiful
• Undestructable
Source: T. Graedel, Yale University.

5. Copper use and urbanisation
Source: ICSG, Raw Materials Group.
Indonesia
Pakistan
Philippines
Switzerland
Thailand
Zambia
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 10 100 1000 10000
Urbanisation
Population (m)
Series13
China
India
USA
Germany
Sth Korea
Japan
Brazil
Chile
Russia
UK
Malaysia
World
Population million
Urbanisation

6. Growth assumptions 2012-21
061030 Anton Löf
2012 2015 2015-2021
World 2.0 4.4 4.7
United States 3.6 4.0 4.0
EU -0.9 3.5 4.0
Japan -1.0 2.0 3.0
Other advanced economies 2.5 4.5 4.5
China 7.9 6.0 6.0
India 0.7 6.5 6.5
Brazil -3.2 3.0 3.5
Other emerging and developing
economies 2.7 6.0 6.5
Russia 2.6 3.5 3.5

7. Manganese drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
Background
• Metals cannot be replaced.
• Extended period of growth.
• China/Asia still major engines.
• Infrastructure & personal use.
• Supply constraints increase.

8. Nickel drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
Metal prices

9. Metal price index
061030 Anton Löf
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
RMG Price Index Iron Ore Copper
Nickel Zinc Aluminium
Lead Potash Phosphate
Metallurgical coal
Index = 100 year 2000 USD/t

10. Metal prices II
061030 Anton Löf
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013e
2014e
2015e
2016e
2017e
2018e
2019e
2020e
2021e
RMG Price Index Gold Silver PGMs
Index = 100 year 2000
USD/oz
Au, Ag,
PGM

11. Metal prices III
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0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Lead $/t Aluminium $/t Zinc $/t
Potash $/t Metallurgical coal $/t Phosphate $/t
Iron Ore $/t Nickel $/t Copper $/t
USD/t
other
USD/t
Ni, Cu

12. Nickel drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
Metal prices
• Weaker prices mid-term.
• Bounce back 2015/16.
• Long term slow increase.

13. Ore production
Neodymium drawing: Kaianders Sempler.

14. Total ore production
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0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021
Mt
Other
Gold
Copper
Iron ore
Met coal
Thermal
coal

15. Ore production
Neodymium drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
• Metal ores 2012 11 Mt.
• Total incl. coal 2012 18 Mt.
• 2000-2012: 100 % increase.
• 2020 growth slow down.

16. Capex
Tungsten drawing: Kaianders Sempler.

17. Mining capex
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
MUSD

18. Capex
Tungsten drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
• Steep decline 2014.
• Rebounce already in 2015?
• Top twenty companies ~ 50%.
• Fe/Cu/Au > 85 % of total.
• Latin America, North America
growing.
• Australia stable, Africa?
• Long term slow growth,
not reach 2012 this decade.

19. Vanadium drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
Exploration

20. Exploration
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012f2013f2014f2015f2016f2017f2018f
Billion USD
Note: Nonferrous Source: MEG, forecasts RMG

21. Vanadium drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
Exploration
• Lack of exploration.
• Serious problems for
the future.

22. Nordic
countries
Copper drawing: Kaianders Sempler.

23. European mining I
Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2013.
4.31 %

24. European mining II
Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2013.
7.89 %

25. Mining investments
Sweden 1996-2011
061030 Anton Löf
3%
1996
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
% of total

26. Mining investments
061030 Anton Löf
3%
1996
Kiruna
Kaunisvaara
Dannemora
Sydvaranger
Talvivaara
Kevitsa
Aitik
Garpenberg
Kittilä
Laiva Kankberg Kemi
Järn
Nickel
Koppar
Zink/Bly
Guld
Krom

27. Nordic ore 2010-20
061030 Anton Löf
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Sweden
Norway
Greenland
Finland
Mt

28. Nordic exploration
061030 Anton Löf
MEUR

29. Nordic
countries
Copper drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
• Leading metals miners.
• Continental coal mining
not to be overlooked.
• Exploration decline.
• R&D leading EIP.
• Investment activities high.
• Increasing difficulties.

30. Rare esrths drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
Conclusions
• Demand continues but
slower growth pace.
• Supply constraints
increasing.
• Prices remains high.
• Capex bottoms out 2014.
• Nordic countries:
• Dominates metals.
• But including coal,
small actors.
• Increasing obstacles.
• Joint government action
necessary.

31. Copper drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
Raw Materials Group
Magnus Ericsson
PO Box 3127
SE-169 03 Solna
Tel: +46-8-744 00 65
E-mail: magnus.ericsson@rmg.se
www.intierrarmg.se
Kiitos/Tack/Thank you !

32. Elements drawings: Kaianders Sempler.
Elements first isolated by Finnish and
Swedish chemists and metallurgists in
the 18/19th century.

33. Raw Materials Group
• Part of the IntierraRMG group since 2012.
• 30 years industry leadership in data, mapping,
analysis and reporting.
• IntierraLive and Raw Materials Data.
• Strategy development:
– Mining companies, equipment & service.
• Mineral policy, investment promotion:
– Governments, International organisations.
• Pre-feasibility/Feasibility studies:
– Financial institutions, companies.