The Webinar is how to Understand Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological and Political Environment concerning an organization and link it to contextual environment.

1. A Presentation is a confusion of
one man multiplied by the
number present!
Dr. Awais e Siraj
Consultant of Strategy and Scenario Planning
Managing Director
Genzee Solutions
Islamabad
www.genzeesolutions.com
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2. Objective
i. History of Scenario Planning
ii. How to build Scenarios?
iii. How to devise a robust strategy from
Scenarios?
iv. QnA
http://blog.mile.org/how-to-craft-robust-strategy-through-scenarios/
http://blog.mile.org/how-to-craft-robust-strategy-through-scenarios/

3. Scenarios
• Origin
– World War II
– US Air Force (RAND Corporation Herman Kahn – 1950’s)
• “Scenarios describe hypothetically a succession of
events with the objective of drawing attention to
causal relationships and working towards
decisions”.
– Arab Israel War – 1967
– Yom Kippur War – 1973
– Oil Crises
http://blog.mile.org/how-to-craft-robust-strategy-through-scenarios/
http://blog.mile.org/how-to-craft-robust-strategy-through-scenarios/
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4. The process
• Dots on the Horizon
– Signals
• First tank crossing Soviet – Afghan
Border
• First Immigrant crossing Afghan Border
into Pakistan in 1979
• Breakdown of Taliban/Unocal
Negotiation on Oil Pipeline
• Picture of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari with
President of US
• Bou Azizi
For Complete PPT &
Video Log on to:
http://blog.mile.org/how-to-craft-robust-strategy-through-
scenarios/