Broadband service providers are trapped in a vicious circle of network upgrades where they try to use capacity to fix scheduling problems. To escape this cycle, they need to construct their networks differently to schedule traffic appropriately. The benefits are enormous.
2. The only network
performance science
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PREDICTABLE
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3. Dr Neil Davies
Co-founder and Chief Scientist
Computer Scientist, Mathematician
and Engineer (but not a Futurologist)
Sustainability
of ICT
The
expertise I
am sharing
here
4. 15-25 YEARS AHEAD
We can foresee
many likely
future demands
on broadband
networks
20. More, more, more
Lower QoE
When they experience
rapidly varying loss and
delay, you get…
21. More, more, more
More complaints
and churn
In competitive
markets that
drives…
In other markets the
regulator gets the flack and
comes under pressure to act
25. The investment ‘cycle of doom’Service
quality
Undepreciated
assetvalue
($$$)
($)
Let’s look at how QoE
and operator debt
change over time
TIME
26. ServiceQualityUndepreciatedAssetValue
The investment ‘cycle of doom’Service
quality
Undepreciated
assetvalue
($)
($$$)
As you add users to an
empty network, QoE
declines
Those users help you to
pay down the debt used to
fund the network
27. ServiceQualityUndepreciatedAssetValue
The investment ‘cycle of doom’Service
quality
Undepreciated
assetvalue
($)
($$$)
QoE falls faster than
simplistic bandwidth
models suggest and
churn rises
You need to upgrade
earlier than your
capacity planning and
financial models
predicted
35. Cosmic
Cosmic constraints
Physics limits us in many
ways: not just the speed
of light, but also energy
conservation, or how
much information we
can encode on a channel
(Shannon limits)
36. Ludic
Ludic constraints
“Ludic” constraints are
“games”, with mathematical
rules and limits. Chess can be
mathematically modelled, for
example
Broadband is like a statistical
‘game of chance’
57. When there is
excessive delay, people are
trying to make V disappear
by building more capacity
rather than distributing it
through scheduling
Problem
Attempting to solve scheduling problems using
capacity is inefficient and ineffective
58. Result: telecoms is a capital killer
Source: PwC
http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/communications/publications/assets/pwc_capex_final_21may12.pdf
It’s not getting
any better since
then
60. What has to change?
NOW FUTURE
MORE
BANDWIDTH
Selling
peak speed
and commodity
inputs
61. What has to change?
NOW FUTURE
MORE
BANDWIDTH
Selling
peak speed
and commodity
inputs
BETTER
SCHEDULING
Selling QoE &
differentiated
application
outcomes
66. Example of a possible
alternative supply approach
Economy
Standard
Superior This three-class “polyservice”
model is specially constructed. It
should not be confused with
existing “priority QoS”
mechanisms
67. Example of a possible
alternative supply approach
Superior traffic costs more
to deliver… so should
attract a premium
Economy
Standard
Superior
68. Example of a possible
alternative supply approach
Standard traffic is today’s
off-peak Internet… but is
consistently the same
Economy
Standard
Superior
69. Example of a possible
alternative supply approach
Economy traffic does not
drive capacity upgrades
Economy
Standard
Superior
It is also unsuitable for real-time applications
74. NO!
1. Firefighting
– due to rapid QoE declines.
2. Panic buying
– of capacity to deal with QoE crises.
3. Complaining!
– There's loads of slack.
75.
76. YES!
1. Measure QoE
– on customer-centric basis.
2. Increase utilisation via scheduling
– to make a profit.
3. Plan capacity
– based on QoE effects.