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Technical and Market Analysis Mike Zaccardi Technical Analyst 2009-2010 Osprey Financial Group
Street Cred ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What is Technical Analysis? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Technical Analysis per CFAI ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Assumptions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
TA vs. Fundamentals ,[object Object],[object Object]
Advantages of Technical Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Challenges to Technical Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Categories of Technical Indicators ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Contrarian Opinion Rules ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Smart Money Indicators ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Momentum Indicators ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Price and Volume Techniques ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Price and Volume Techniques ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Market Analysis Highlights ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
SPX 9-Month
NASDAQ 100 ETF (NDX) 9-Month
10-yr Yield
Small Caps Outperformance
Internationals vs. SPX
Emerging Markets vs. SPX
CBOE VIX 1-Year
VIX 10-Year
 
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VXX – Short Term VIX
NYSE Daily Volume 1-Year
Cotton (BAL) ETF – Parabolic Move Cotton ($CT_F) Bubble Burst
Gold ($GC_F) 1-Yr
Silver ($SI_F) 4-Month
Fibonacci ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
US Dollar Index 1-Year
JPY and EUR vs. USD
Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)
USDJPY 1-Year (Flash Crash)
EURCHF – “Risk-Off”
US Dollar Index 40-Year
S&P 500 Sectors YTD
S&P 500 Companies
OFG Technical Calls
Raytheon (RTN) Upside Breakout
OIH Double-Bottom
Oil Services ETF 200-EMA
Energy E&P ETF (XOP)
USD – Reversal
DXY Flag Formation
OFG and the Dollar
Diamond Offshore (DO)
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)
S&P 500 w/200ema & 50sma OFG Strategy:  Raise Cash on 2/3 with S&P at 1090-1105   Buy back equities between 1045-1060 Reasoning: Market was in Corrective phase, 200 ema @ 1045, 10% correction at 1035 – buyers likely to step in ahead of 10% number as it had been much anticipated
What Happened? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Scotts Miracle Gro (SMG)
Anomalies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Energy Charts
RBOB Gas 1-YR (+$0.65)
WTI Crude – 10-Year
WTI/Brent Spread
What’s Commodity is not Performing?
Nat Gas 10-YR
Contango!
Backwardation
Technical Indicators
Candlesticks
 
 
Abandoned Baby  Engulfing Pattern
Golden Cross
Death Cross
Market Internal Indicators ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Bollinger Bands ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Bollinger Bands
Elliot Wave
3 More… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Netflix (NFLX)
Kroger (KR) Quiet Leader
Apple (AAPL) Loud Leader
Beat down Goldman Sachs (GS)
Molycorp (MCP)
Google (GOOG) Beware
Mosaic (MOS) looks good
Bank of America (BAC)
Peet’s Coffee (PEET)
Flash Crash – 5/6/2010 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
Apple on Flash Crash
 
Now’s the time?
Or are we the next Japan?
10-yr Returns
All other Technical Indicators ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Want to be a TA? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Books ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Good Websites: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Lecture 7 27