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2010 Economic Preview:
                 V or W or U or √ or L

                               Marvin R. Clark
                               Managing Principal
                          Chief Economist and Strategist

                              ISM Diversity Summit
                                   Omni Hotel
                                February 3, 2010
                              San Diego, California

                        Monsoon Wealth Management
1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
2008 & 2009 Review
                2008                2009
Bear Stearns             President Obama
Indy Mac                 Unemployment
Fannie Mae               Falling Stock Market
Freddie Mac              New Lows
Lehman Bros.             March Rally
Breaking the Buck        Foreclosures
TARP                     Green Shoots
6% Contraction           Stimulus Dollars
1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
Post WWII US Economic Theories
John Maynard Keynes         Supply-Side Economics
Higher Taxes               Lower Taxes
Government Spending        Smaller Government
Social Safety Nets         Free Markets
Union Wages                No minimum wage law
Universal Health Care      Few regulations
Redistribution of Wealth   Buyer beware




1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
MAJOR CAUSES of Post WWII Deflation

• Falling oil prices 1981-2000
• Falling interest rates 1981-2008
• Deregulation
• Cheap domestic labor 1986-2007
• The information and digital age
• Personal computer 1981
• NAFTA
• Globalization
• The Internet
• Cheap Capital

1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
MAJOR CAUSES Of Post WW II Inflation

Great Society Programs 1964-1968
Vietnam War 1959-1975
Suspending the gold standard 1971
The 1st oil embargo 1973
Inexperienced workforce 1972-1982
Antiquated manufacturing facilities
The 2nd oil embargo 1979
Excessive money supply growth


1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
The 2000’s
  • Cowboy Capitalism
  • Leverage
  • Exotic investment products
  • Lax supervision
  • Deficit spending
  • Derivatives
  • Lowered underwriting standards
  • O.P.M. (other peoples’ money)
  • No Fear



1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
This Decade’s Four Bubbles
 • Dot.com Stocks
 • Residential Real Estate
 • Commercial Real Estate
 • Blue Chip Stocks




1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
The New Normal
• An L shaped recovery
• Multi-year credit contraction
• Re-regulation
• Low, low growth
• Higher taxes
• Later on, inflation
• China’s driving
• A reduced standard of living in America



1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
Predicting 2010
 2009 Holiday Sales
4th Quarter GDP
December Unemployment Numbers
Other 4th quarter and 2009 Economic Data
Real Estate
National Wealth




1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
January 4-8th Data
          Monday                       Tuesday                      Wednesday                     Thursday                Friday
ISM Mfg Index                          Tuesday              MBA Purchase Applications     Chain Store Sales        Employment Situation
10:00 AM ET                  Motor Vehicle Sales            7:00 AM ET                                             8:30 AM ET
Construction Spending10:00   ICSC-Goldman Store Sales7:45   Challenger Job-Cut Report     Monster Employment Index Wholesale Trade
AM ET                        AM ET                          7:30 AM ET                    6:00 AM ET               10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Announcement     Redbook8:55 AM ET              ADP Employment Report         Jobless Claims8:30       Consumer Credit
11:00 AM ET                  Factory Orders10:00 AM ET      8:15 AM ET                    AM ET                    3:00 PM ET
3-Month Bill Auction11:30    Pending Home Sales Index       ISM Non-Mfg Index10:00        30-Yr Bond Announcement
AM ET                        10:00 AM ET                    AM ET                         9:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction11:30                                   EIA Petroleum Status Report   EIA Natural Gas Report
AM                                                          10:30 AM ET                   10:30 AM ET
                                                            FOMC Minutes2:00 PM ET        Treasury STRIPS3:00
                                                                                          PM ET
                                                                                          Fed Balance Sheet4:30
                                                                                          PM ET
                                                                                          Money Supply4:30
                                                                                          PM ET




1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
January 11-15 Data
Monday                                 Tuesday                     Wednesday                        Thursday                    Friday
4-Week Bill Announcement       ICSC-Goldman Store Sales    Bank Reserve Settlement       Retail Sales8:30 AM ET         Consumer Price Index8:30
11:00 AM ET                    7:45 AM ET                                                                               AM ET
                                                                                         Jobless Claims8:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction11:30      International Trade8:30     MBA Purchase Applications                                    Empire State Mfg Survey
AM ET                          AM ET                       7:00 AM ET                    Import and Export Prices8:30   8:30 AM ET
                                                                                         AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction11:30      Redbook8:55 AM ET           EIA Petroleum Status Report                                  Industrial Production9:15
AM ET                                                      10:30 AM ET                   RBC CASH Index9:00 AM ET       AM ET
                               4-Week Bill Auction11:30
10-Yr TIPS Auction1:00 PM ET   AM ET                       10-Yr Note Auction1:00        Business Inventories10:00      Consumer Sentiment9:55
                                                           PM ET                         AM ET                          AM ET
                               52-Week Bill Auction11:30
                               AM ET                       Beige Book2:00 PM ET          EIA Natural Gas Report10:30
                                                                                         AM ET
                               3-Yr Note Auction1:00       Treasury Budget2:00 PM ET
                               PM ET                                                     30-Yr Bond Auction1:00
                                                                                         PM ET

                                                                                         Fed Balance Sheet4:30 PM ET

                                                                                         Money Supply4:30 PM ET




1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
January 18-22 Data
 Monday                                          Tuesday                      Wednesday                        Thursday                     Friday
 US Holiday: Martin Luther King Jr.   Treasury International Capital     MBA Purchase Applications   Jobless Claims8:30 AM ET       No Data Today
 Day                                  9:00 AM ET                        7:00 AM ET
                                                                                                     Leading Indicators10:00
 All Markets Closed                   State Street Investor Confidence Index
                                                                          ICSC-Goldman Store Sales   AM ET
                                      10:00 AM ET                         7:45 AM ET
                                                                                                     Philadelphia Fed Survey10:00
                                      Housing Market Index1:00          Housing Starts8:30 AM ET     AM ET
                                      PM ET
                                                                        Producer Price Index8:30     EIA Natural Gas Report10:30
                                                                        AM ET                        AM ET

                                                                        Redbook8:55 AM ET            EIA Petroleum Status Report
                                                                                                     11:00 AM ET

                                                                                                     3-Month Bill Announcement
                                                                                                     11:00 AM ET

                                                                                                     6-Month Bill Announcement
                                                                                                     11:00 AM ET

                                                                                                     2-Yr Note Announcement
                                                                                                     11:00 AM ET

                                                                                                     5-Yr Note Announcement
                                                                                                     11:00 AM ET

                                                                                                     7-Yr Note Announcement
                                                                                                     11:00 AM ET

                                                                                                     Fed Balance Sheet4:30 PM ET

                                                                                                     Money Supply4:30 PM ET




1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
January 25-29 Data
Monday                            Tuesday                        Wednesday                        Thursday                    Friday
Existing Home Sales10:00   FOMC Meeting Begins             Bank Reserve Settlement      Durable Goods Orders8:30      GDP8:30 AM ET
AM ET                                                                                   AM ET                         Employment Cost Index
                           ICSC-Goldman Store Sales7:45   MBA Purchase Applications     Jobless Claims8:30 AM ET      8:30 AM ET
                           AM ET                          7:00 AM ET
                                                                                        EIA Natural Gas Report10:30   Chicago PMI9:45 AM ET
                           Redbook8:55 AM ET              New Home Sales10:00           AM ET
                                                          AM ET                                                       Consumer Sentiment9:55
                           S&P Case-Shiller HPI9:00                                     3-Month Bill Announcement     AM ET
                           AM ET                          EIA Petroleum Status Report   11:00 AM ET
                                                          10:30 AM ET                                                 Farm Prices3:00 PM ET
                           Consumer Confidence10:00       5-Yr Note Auction1:00         6-Month Bill Announcement
                           AM ET                          PM ET                         11:00 AM ET

                           FHFA House Price Index10:00    FOMC Meeting Announcement 7-Yr Note Auction1:00
                           AM ET                          2:15 PM ET                PM ET
                                                           
                           4-Week Bill Auction11:30                                 Fed Balance Sheet4:30 PM ET
                           AM ET
                                                                                        Money Supply4:30 PM ET
                           2-Yr Note Auction1:00 PM ET




1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
February 1-5 Data
Monday                                 Tuesday                     Wednesday                        Thursday                     Friday
Personal Income and Outlays   Motor Vehicle Sales             MBA Purchase Applications    Chain Store Sales             Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET                                                   7:00 AM ET                                                  8:30 AM ET
                              ICSC-Goldman Store Sales7:45                                 Monster Employment Index
ISM Mfg Index10:00 AM ET      AM ET                          Challenger Job-Cut Report     6:00 AM ET                    Consumer Credit
                                                             7:30 AM ET                                                  3:00 PM ET
Construction Spending10:00    Redbook8:55 AM ET                                            Jobless Claims8:30 AM ET
AM ET                                                        ADP Employment Report
                              Pending Home Sales Index       8:15 AM ET                    Productivity and Costs8:30
                              10:00 AM ET                                                  AM ET
                                                             30-Yr Bond Announcement
                                                             9:00 AM ET                    RBC CASH Index9:00 AM ET

                                                             ISM Non-Mfg Index10:00        Factory Orders10:00 AM ET
                                                             AM ET
                                                                                           EIA Natural Gas Report10:30
                                                             EIA Petroleum Status Report   AM ET
                                                             10:30 AM ET                   Treasury STRIPS
                                                                                           3:00 PM ET
                                                             3-Yr Note Announcement
                                                             11:00 AM ET                   Fed Balance Sheet
                                                                                           4:30 PM ET
                                                             10-Yr Note Announcement
                                                             11:00 AM ET                   Money Supply
                                                                                           4:30 PM ET




1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
Monsoon Wealth Management




1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com

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2010 economic preview ism 97 2003

  • 1. 2010 Economic Preview: V or W or U or √ or L Marvin R. Clark Managing Principal Chief Economist and Strategist ISM Diversity Summit Omni Hotel February 3, 2010 San Diego, California Monsoon Wealth Management 1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com
  • 3. 2008 & 2009 Review 2008 2009 Bear Stearns President Obama Indy Mac Unemployment Fannie Mae Falling Stock Market Freddie Mac New Lows Lehman Bros. March Rally Breaking the Buck Foreclosures TARP Green Shoots 6% Contraction Stimulus Dollars 1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com
  • 5. Post WWII US Economic Theories John Maynard Keynes Supply-Side Economics Higher Taxes Lower Taxes Government Spending Smaller Government Social Safety Nets Free Markets Union Wages No minimum wage law Universal Health Care Few regulations Redistribution of Wealth Buyer beware 1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com
  • 6. MAJOR CAUSES of Post WWII Deflation • Falling oil prices 1981-2000 • Falling interest rates 1981-2008 • Deregulation • Cheap domestic labor 1986-2007 • The information and digital age • Personal computer 1981 • NAFTA • Globalization • The Internet • Cheap Capital 1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com
  • 7. MAJOR CAUSES Of Post WW II Inflation Great Society Programs 1964-1968 Vietnam War 1959-1975 Suspending the gold standard 1971 The 1st oil embargo 1973 Inexperienced workforce 1972-1982 Antiquated manufacturing facilities The 2nd oil embargo 1979 Excessive money supply growth 1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com
  • 8. The 2000’s • Cowboy Capitalism • Leverage • Exotic investment products • Lax supervision • Deficit spending • Derivatives • Lowered underwriting standards • O.P.M. (other peoples’ money) • No Fear 1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com
  • 9. This Decade’s Four Bubbles • Dot.com Stocks • Residential Real Estate • Commercial Real Estate • Blue Chip Stocks 1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com
  • 10. The New Normal • An L shaped recovery • Multi-year credit contraction • Re-regulation • Low, low growth • Higher taxes • Later on, inflation • China’s driving • A reduced standard of living in America 1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com
  • 11. Predicting 2010  2009 Holiday Sales 4th Quarter GDP December Unemployment Numbers Other 4th quarter and 2009 Economic Data Real Estate National Wealth 1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com
  • 12. January 4-8th Data Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday ISM Mfg Index Tuesday MBA Purchase Applications Chain Store Sales  Employment Situation 10:00 AM ET Motor Vehicle Sales  7:00 AM ET 8:30 AM ET Construction Spending10:00 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales7:45 Challenger Job-Cut Report Monster Employment Index Wholesale Trade AM ET AM ET 7:30 AM ET 6:00 AM ET 10:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Announcement Redbook8:55 AM ET ADP Employment Report Jobless Claims8:30 Consumer Credit 11:00 AM ET Factory Orders10:00 AM ET 8:15 AM ET AM ET 3:00 PM ET 3-Month Bill Auction11:30 Pending Home Sales Index ISM Non-Mfg Index10:00 30-Yr Bond Announcement AM ET 10:00 AM ET AM ET 9:00 AM ET 6-Month Bill Auction11:30 EIA Petroleum Status Report EIA Natural Gas Report AM 10:30 AM ET 10:30 AM ET FOMC Minutes2:00 PM ET Treasury STRIPS3:00 PM ET Fed Balance Sheet4:30 PM ET Money Supply4:30 PM ET 1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com
  • 13. January 11-15 Data Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday 4-Week Bill Announcement ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Bank Reserve Settlement  Retail Sales8:30 AM ET Consumer Price Index8:30 11:00 AM ET 7:45 AM ET AM ET Jobless Claims8:30 AM ET 3-Month Bill Auction11:30 International Trade8:30 MBA Purchase Applications Empire State Mfg Survey AM ET AM ET 7:00 AM ET Import and Export Prices8:30 8:30 AM ET AM ET 6-Month Bill Auction11:30 Redbook8:55 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report Industrial Production9:15 AM ET 10:30 AM ET RBC CASH Index9:00 AM ET AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction11:30 10-Yr TIPS Auction1:00 PM ET AM ET 10-Yr Note Auction1:00 Business Inventories10:00 Consumer Sentiment9:55 PM ET AM ET AM ET 52-Week Bill Auction11:30 AM ET Beige Book2:00 PM ET EIA Natural Gas Report10:30 AM ET 3-Yr Note Auction1:00 Treasury Budget2:00 PM ET PM ET   30-Yr Bond Auction1:00 PM ET Fed Balance Sheet4:30 PM ET Money Supply4:30 PM ET 1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com
  • 14. January 18-22 Data Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday US Holiday: Martin Luther King Jr. Treasury International Capital  MBA Purchase Applications Jobless Claims8:30 AM ET No Data Today Day 9:00 AM ET 7:00 AM ET Leading Indicators10:00 All Markets Closed State Street Investor Confidence Index ICSC-Goldman Store Sales AM ET 10:00 AM ET 7:45 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Survey10:00 Housing Market Index1:00 Housing Starts8:30 AM ET AM ET PM ET Producer Price Index8:30 EIA Natural Gas Report10:30 AM ET AM ET Redbook8:55 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report 11:00 AM ET 3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 2-Yr Note Announcement 11:00 AM ET 5-Yr Note Announcement 11:00 AM ET 7-Yr Note Announcement 11:00 AM ET Fed Balance Sheet4:30 PM ET Money Supply4:30 PM ET 1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com
  • 15. January 25-29 Data Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Existing Home Sales10:00 FOMC Meeting Begins   Bank Reserve Settlement  Durable Goods Orders8:30 GDP8:30 AM ET AM ET AM ET Employment Cost Index ICSC-Goldman Store Sales7:45 MBA Purchase Applications Jobless Claims8:30 AM ET 8:30 AM ET AM ET 7:00 AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report10:30 Chicago PMI9:45 AM ET Redbook8:55 AM ET New Home Sales10:00 AM ET AM ET Consumer Sentiment9:55 S&P Case-Shiller HPI9:00 3-Month Bill Announcement AM ET AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report 11:00 AM ET 10:30 AM ET Farm Prices3:00 PM ET Consumer Confidence10:00 5-Yr Note Auction1:00 6-Month Bill Announcement AM ET PM ET 11:00 AM ET FHFA House Price Index10:00 FOMC Meeting Announcement 7-Yr Note Auction1:00 AM ET 2:15 PM ET PM ET   4-Week Bill Auction11:30 Fed Balance Sheet4:30 PM ET AM ET Money Supply4:30 PM ET 2-Yr Note Auction1:00 PM ET 1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com
  • 16. February 1-5 Data Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Personal Income and Outlays Motor Vehicle Sales   MBA Purchase Applications Chain Store Sales  Employment Situation 8:30 AM ET 7:00 AM ET 8:30 AM ET ICSC-Goldman Store Sales7:45 Monster Employment Index ISM Mfg Index10:00 AM ET AM ET Challenger Job-Cut Report 6:00 AM ET Consumer Credit 7:30 AM ET 3:00 PM ET Construction Spending10:00 Redbook8:55 AM ET Jobless Claims8:30 AM ET AM ET ADP Employment Report Pending Home Sales Index 8:15 AM ET Productivity and Costs8:30 10:00 AM ET AM ET 30-Yr Bond Announcement 9:00 AM ET RBC CASH Index9:00 AM ET ISM Non-Mfg Index10:00 Factory Orders10:00 AM ET AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report10:30 EIA Petroleum Status Report AM ET 10:30 AM ET Treasury STRIPS 3:00 PM ET 3-Yr Note Announcement 11:00 AM ET Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET 10-Yr Note Announcement 11:00 AM ET Money Supply 4:30 PM ET 1-866-931-1846 www.monsoonwealth.com