1. 2010 Economic Preview:
V or W or U or √ or L
Marvin R. Clark
Managing Principal
Chief Economist and Strategist
ISM Diversity Summit
Omni Hotel
February 3, 2010
San Diego, California
Monsoon Wealth Management
1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
5. Post WWII US Economic Theories
John Maynard Keynes Supply-Side Economics
Higher Taxes Lower Taxes
Government Spending Smaller Government
Social Safety Nets Free Markets
Union Wages No minimum wage law
Universal Health Care Few regulations
Redistribution of Wealth Buyer beware
1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
6. MAJOR CAUSES of Post WWII Deflation
• Falling oil prices 1981-2000
• Falling interest rates 1981-2008
• Deregulation
• Cheap domestic labor 1986-2007
• The information and digital age
• Personal computer 1981
• NAFTA
• Globalization
• The Internet
• Cheap Capital
1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
7. MAJOR CAUSES Of Post WW II Inflation
Great Society Programs 1964-1968
Vietnam War 1959-1975
Suspending the gold standard 1971
The 1st oil embargo 1973
Inexperienced workforce 1972-1982
Antiquated manufacturing facilities
The 2nd oil embargo 1979
Excessive money supply growth
1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
9. This Decade’s Four Bubbles
• Dot.com Stocks
• Residential Real Estate
• Commercial Real Estate
• Blue Chip Stocks
1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
10. The New Normal
• An L shaped recovery
• Multi-year credit contraction
• Re-regulation
• Low, low growth
• Higher taxes
• Later on, inflation
• China’s driving
• A reduced standard of living in America
1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
11. Predicting 2010
2009 Holiday Sales
4th Quarter GDP
December Unemployment Numbers
Other 4th quarter and 2009 Economic Data
Real Estate
National Wealth
1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
12. January 4-8th Data
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
ISM Mfg Index Tuesday MBA Purchase Applications Chain Store Sales Employment Situation
10:00 AM ET Motor Vehicle Sales 7:00 AM ET 8:30 AM ET
Construction Spending10:00 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales7:45 Challenger Job-Cut Report Monster Employment Index Wholesale Trade
AM ET AM ET 7:30 AM ET 6:00 AM ET 10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Announcement Redbook8:55 AM ET ADP Employment Report Jobless Claims8:30 Consumer Credit
11:00 AM ET Factory Orders10:00 AM ET 8:15 AM ET AM ET 3:00 PM ET
3-Month Bill Auction11:30 Pending Home Sales Index ISM Non-Mfg Index10:00 30-Yr Bond Announcement
AM ET 10:00 AM ET AM ET 9:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction11:30 EIA Petroleum Status Report EIA Natural Gas Report
AM 10:30 AM ET 10:30 AM ET
FOMC Minutes2:00 PM ET Treasury STRIPS3:00
PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet4:30
PM ET
Money Supply4:30
PM ET
1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
13. January 11-15 Data
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
4-Week Bill Announcement ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Bank Reserve Settlement Retail Sales8:30 AM ET Consumer Price Index8:30
11:00 AM ET 7:45 AM ET AM ET
Jobless Claims8:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction11:30 International Trade8:30 MBA Purchase Applications Empire State Mfg Survey
AM ET AM ET 7:00 AM ET Import and Export Prices8:30 8:30 AM ET
AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction11:30 Redbook8:55 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report Industrial Production9:15
AM ET 10:30 AM ET RBC CASH Index9:00 AM ET AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction11:30
10-Yr TIPS Auction1:00 PM ET AM ET 10-Yr Note Auction1:00 Business Inventories10:00 Consumer Sentiment9:55
PM ET AM ET AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction11:30
AM ET Beige Book2:00 PM ET EIA Natural Gas Report10:30
AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction1:00 Treasury Budget2:00 PM ET
PM ET 30-Yr Bond Auction1:00
PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet4:30 PM ET
Money Supply4:30 PM ET
1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
14. January 18-22 Data
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
US Holiday: Martin Luther King Jr. Treasury International Capital MBA Purchase Applications Jobless Claims8:30 AM ET No Data Today
Day 9:00 AM ET 7:00 AM ET
Leading Indicators10:00
All Markets Closed State Street Investor Confidence Index
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales AM ET
10:00 AM ET 7:45 AM ET
Philadelphia Fed Survey10:00
Housing Market Index1:00 Housing Starts8:30 AM ET AM ET
PM ET
Producer Price Index8:30 EIA Natural Gas Report10:30
AM ET AM ET
Redbook8:55 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
2-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET
5-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet4:30 PM ET
Money Supply4:30 PM ET
1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
15. January 25-29 Data
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Existing Home Sales10:00 FOMC Meeting Begins Bank Reserve Settlement Durable Goods Orders8:30 GDP8:30 AM ET
AM ET AM ET Employment Cost Index
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales7:45 MBA Purchase Applications Jobless Claims8:30 AM ET 8:30 AM ET
AM ET 7:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report10:30 Chicago PMI9:45 AM ET
Redbook8:55 AM ET New Home Sales10:00 AM ET
AM ET Consumer Sentiment9:55
S&P Case-Shiller HPI9:00 3-Month Bill Announcement AM ET
AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report 11:00 AM ET
10:30 AM ET Farm Prices3:00 PM ET
Consumer Confidence10:00 5-Yr Note Auction1:00 6-Month Bill Announcement
AM ET PM ET 11:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index10:00 FOMC Meeting Announcement 7-Yr Note Auction1:00
AM ET 2:15 PM ET PM ET
4-Week Bill Auction11:30 Fed Balance Sheet4:30 PM ET
AM ET
Money Supply4:30 PM ET
2-Yr Note Auction1:00 PM ET
1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com
16. February 1-5 Data
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Personal Income and Outlays Motor Vehicle Sales MBA Purchase Applications Chain Store Sales Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET 7:00 AM ET 8:30 AM ET
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales7:45 Monster Employment Index
ISM Mfg Index10:00 AM ET AM ET Challenger Job-Cut Report 6:00 AM ET Consumer Credit
7:30 AM ET 3:00 PM ET
Construction Spending10:00 Redbook8:55 AM ET Jobless Claims8:30 AM ET
AM ET ADP Employment Report
Pending Home Sales Index 8:15 AM ET Productivity and Costs8:30
10:00 AM ET AM ET
30-Yr Bond Announcement
9:00 AM ET RBC CASH Index9:00 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index10:00 Factory Orders10:00 AM ET
AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report10:30
EIA Petroleum Status Report AM ET
10:30 AM ET Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
3-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
10-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
1-866-931-1846
www.monsoonwealth.com