Project Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art
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Project Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art
- 1. Project Estimation:Demystifying the Black Art
- 2. How good an estimator are you?
- 4. Do not make your ranges either too wide or too narrow
- 5. Make the range so you believe there is a 90% chance of including the right value
- 6. What is the surface temperature of the Sun?
- 7. What is the weight of the heaviest blue whale ever recorded?
- 8. Quiz Results
- 9. We stink at estimation.
- 10. Psychology works against us.
- 12. Protection of pride
- 14. We don’t plan accordingly
- 15. We don’t execute correctly
- 17. We don’t plan accordingly
- 18. We don’t execute correctly
- 20. Probability of correct estimation 100%
- 23. Single Point Estimations > 1%
- 25. Reduced chance of on-time completion
- 28. My Business Expectations 50% 25% 75%
- 29. We don’t like ranges
- 30. Put uncertainty into your estimation practices
- 33. Planning Poker
- 34. Tainting estimates with customer expectations
- 35. We don’t know what we are estimating
- 36. “Build me a house.”
- 37. Find your project’s estimation cornerstones
- 40. 2 Day Crutch Method
- 44. Modifying estimates with “control knobs”
- 46. We don’t plan accordingly
- 47. We don’t execute correctly
- 49. Estimation = Planning “Plans are worthless — but planning is everything.” —Dwight D. Eisenhower
- 51. We don’t plan accordingly
- 52. We don’t execute correctly
- 54. “It feels like 20 hours, but let’s put 24 hours to fudge it a little bit…”
- 57. Hofstadter's Law
- 58. The Gut Instinct Equation
- 60. We don’t plan accordingly
- 61. We don’t execute correctly
- 63. “A good estimate is a estimate that provides a clear enough view of the project reality to allow the project leadership to make good decisions about how to control the project to hit its targets” [Steve McConnell, Software Estimation]
- 65. Questions?
Notas do Editor
- 10,000 F / 6,000 C
- 380,000 lbs170 metric tons
- Budget, Timelines,
- What materials should we use?What is your budget?What is your time frame?What about details X,Y,Z?
- By asking how many “bedrooms” you should be able to make a huge amount of assumptions up until you get hit with a modification that breaks the norm. These “normality breakers” however are commonly very out in the open (nobody expects a house builder to come in on time and under budget if you neglected to mention the swimming pool and sun room, therefore it gets mentioned).How many Epics / Themes can I detect early on? (for those using user stories)How many Roles / Persona have been mentioned?How many integration points are needed?Depending on your environment, there might be a completely different set of criteria you might look at as a “bedroom”; however, I do believe that you will always be able to find at least one. The client budget and time frame is always on the forefront of the discussion; however, those are variables that [regardless of what they say] are mutable, their need for a 3 bedroom house is not.
- How many Epics / Themes can I detect early onHow many Roles / Persona have been mentioned?How many integration points are needed?Depending on your environment, there might be a completely different set of criteria you might look at as a “bedroom”; however, I do believe that you will always be able to find at least one. The client budget and time frame is always on the forefront of the discussion; however, those are variables that [regardless of what they say] are mutable, their need for a 3 bedroom house is not.
- - Estimation : Unbiased, analytical process - Planning: Biased, goal seeking activity Estimates form foundation for plans, not vice versa Hazardous to want the estimation to come out to a particular result Result: Bad estimates *and* bad plans
- “Plans are worthless — but planning is everything.” —Dwight D. Eisenhower
- - Premature commitments routinely sabotage projects [McConnell 2005]- Meaningful commitments are not possible in the wide part of the cone Effective organizations delay their commitments until they have forced the cone to narrow
- Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.
- progress is never linear is the first step in understanding why projects are never under budget
- One of the best reasons [from a management perspective] to adopt Scrum is the fact that iterations are “accountable commitments” to what the team could accomplish in a week…nobody should ever be held accountable for estimationsBeing a responsible estimator is important, but being responsible for your estimates is not. You have to build the solution, you should not also have to manage the budget. Put your estimations in ranges with probabilities and let your manager manage the costs and risks of the project.