1. Climate
Des+na+ons
AAG
Annual
Mee+ng,
NY
2012
Lars
Böcker
&

2. • Background
• Methodology
• Climate
change
and
the
par+cipa+on
into
various
ac+vi+es
• Climate
change
effects
on
selected
des+na+on
loca+on:
-­‐in
terms
of
travelled
trip-­‐distance
-­‐in
terms
of
urbaniza+on
degree
• Discussion,
conclusion
and
research
outlook
Contents

3. • Extensive
knowledge
on
weather
and
travel
+mes
/
mode
choices
and
on
climate
and
tourism
• Less
aOen+on
for
daily
ac+vi+es
and
des+na+ons
• Overemphasis
on
weather
extremes;
less
aOen+on
for
recurring
everyday
weather
condi+ons
• Geographical
contexts:
extensive
knowledge
on
urban
micro-­‐
climates,
but
hardly
in
rela+on
to
ac+vity/travel
behaviours
• Only
few
studies
that
directly
link
to
climate
change
• Böcker,
Dijst
&
Prillwitz
(submiOed)
“Impact
of
weather
on
travel
behaviour
in
perspec+ve:
a
literature
review”
Background

4. Methodology
• Selec+on
of
seasons
within
the
last
decade
represen+ng
current
climate
• Selec+on
of
seasons
within
the
last
decade
represen+ng
projected
2050
climate
• Analyzing
mobility
paOerns
in
different
geographical
contexts
• Dutch
Na+onal
Travel
Survey
• Böcker,
Prillwitz
&
Dijst
(submiOed)
“Climate
Change
Impacts
on
Mode
Choices
and
Travelled
Distances:
A
Comparison
of
Present
with
2050
Weather
Condi+ons
for
the
Randstad
Holland”

5. Methodology
Spring
-­‐Warmer
-­‐Overall
weOer
Autumn
-­‐Warmer
-­‐Rain
falls
over
fewer
days
Winter
-­‐Milder
-­‐Overall
weOer
-­‐Heavier
precipita+on
Summer
-­‐HoOer
-­‐Longer
dry
periods
-­‐Heavier
rain
showers

6. Results:
ac+vity
types
Percent
changes
in
number
of
trips
per
person
per
day
for
different
ac+vity
types
(2050
compared
to
present)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
maintenance
n=6989
social visit
n=6530
work/study
n=11421
shopping
n=6044
picking up
n=3856
leisure other
n=4426
leisure touring
n=4327
winter spring summer autumn
%

7. Results:
ac+vity
types
Percent
changes
in
number
of
trips
per
person
per
day
for
different
ac+vity
types
(2050
compared
to
present)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
maintenance
n=6989
social visit
n=6530
work/study
n=11421
shopping
n=6044
picking up
n=3856
leisure other
n=4426
leisure touring
n=4327
winter spring summer autumn
%

8. Results:
ac+vity
types
Percent
changes
in
number
of
trips
per
person
per
day
for
different
ac+vity
types
(2050
compared
to
present)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
maintenance
n=6989
social visit
n=6530
work/study
n=11421
shopping
n=6044
picking up
n=3856
leisure other
n=4426
leisure touring
n=4327
winter spring summer autumn
%

9. Results:
ac+vity
types
Percent
changes
in
number
of
trips
per
person
per
day
for
different
ac+vity
types
(2050
compared
to
present)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
maintenance
n=6989
social visit
n=6530
work/study
n=11421
shopping
n=6044
picking up
n=3856
leisure other
n=4426
leisure touring
n=4327
winter spring summer autumn
%

10. Results:
ac+vity
types
Percent
changes
in
number
of
trips
per
person
per
day
for
different
ac+vity
types
(2050
compared
to
present)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
maintenance
n=6989
social visit
n=6530
work/study
n=11421
shopping
n=6044
picking up
n=3856
leisure other
n=4426
leisure touring
n=4327
winter spring summer autumn
%

11. Results:
ac+vity
types
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
All
seasons
Work/study
-­‐
-­‐
+
-­‐
-­‐
Maintenance
-­‐
-­‐
-­‐
0
-­‐
Picking
up
+
+
-­‐
+
+
Social
visit
+
-­‐
-­‐
+
+
Leisure
touring
+
+
-­‐
-­‐
+
Leisure
shopping
-­‐
-­‐
+
+
-­‐
Leisure
other
-­‐
-­‐
+
+
-­‐
All
trips
+
-­‐
+
+
+
OLS
regression:
Climate
change
effects
on
travelled
distance
per
trip
+/-­‐
=
significant
at
.05

12. Results:
trip
distances
Percent
changes
in
trip
distance
for
different
ac+vity
types
(2050
compared
to
present)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
work/study
n=11421
social visit
n=6530
maintenance
n=6989
picking up
n=3856
shopping
n=6044
touring
n=4327
leisure other
n=4426
Winter Spring Summer Autumn
%

13. Results:
trip
distances
Percent
changes
in
trip
distance
for
different
ac+vity
types
(2050
compared
to
present)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
work/study
n=11421
social visit
n=6530
maintenance
n=6989
picking up
n=3856
shopping
n=6044
touring
n=4327
leisure other
n=4426
Winter Spring Summer Autumn
%

14. Results:
trip
distances
Percent
changes
in
trip
distance
for
different
ac+vity
types
(2050
compared
to
present)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
work/study
n=11421
social visit
n=6530
maintenance
n=6989
picking up
n=3856
shopping
n=6044
touring
n=4327
leisure other
n=4426
Winter Spring Summer Autumn
%

15. Results:
trip
distances
Percent
changes
in
trip
distance
for
different
ac+vity
types
(2050
compared
to
present)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
work/study
n=11421
social visit
n=6530
maintenance
n=6989
picking up
n=3856
shopping
n=6044
touring
n=4327
leisure other
n=4426
Winter Spring Summer Autumn
%

16. Results:
ac+vity
types
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
All
seasons
Work/study
+
-­‐
+
+
+
Maintenance
-­‐
+
-­‐
+
-­‐
Picking
up
-­‐
-­‐
-­‐
+
-­‐
Social
visit
+
-­‐
-­‐
+
-­‐
Leisure
touring
-­‐
+
-­‐
-­‐
+
Leisure
shopping
-­‐
-­‐
+
+
-­‐
Leisure
other
-­‐
-­‐
-­‐
+
-­‐
All
trips
-­‐
-­‐
-­‐
+
-­‐
Nega+ve
binomial
models:
Climate
change
effects
on
#
trips/person/day
+/-­‐
=
significant
at
.05

17. Results:
des+na+on
address
density
Climate
change
effect
on
the
number
of
trips
per
person
per
day
towards
des+na+ons
of
different
address
density
-25
0
25
50
75
100
>3500 2000-3500 1400-2000 700-1400 <700
Example:
Touring
in
winter
%

18. Winter
-­‐
Leisure
touring
increase
is
stronger
for
rural
and
suburban
des+na+ons;
no
effect
for
urban
des+na+ons
Summer
-­‐
Leisure
touring
decrease
is
strongest
for
highly
urbanized
innercity
des+na+ons
-­‐
Leisure-­‐shopping
increase
is
stronger
for
the
more
urban
than
for
the
more
suburban/rural
des+na+ons
-­‐
Leisure-­‐other
increase
is
stronger
for
rural/suburban
des+na+ons
Results:
des+na+on
address
density

19. Conclusion
&
discussion
• Insight
into
the
impact
of
(changing)
recurring
climate
condi+ons
on
des+na+on
choices
• Importance
of
geographical
contexts
• Des+na+on
choices
interrelated
with
mode
choices
• Implica+ons
for
planning,
health,
retail
&
hospitality
industry
• Limi+ons
of
the
data:
-­‐no
clear
dis+nc+on
indoor/outdoor
des+na+ons
-­‐seasonal
level
-­‐geographical
context
limited
to
degree
of
urbaniza+on
• Next
step:
Ac+vity
diaries
-­‐situa+onal
approach
-­‐subjec+ve
interpreta+ons
of
weather
-­‐different
residen+al
environments,
dis+nc+ve
microclimates

20. Thank
you!
Contact
Website/blog
L.Bocker@geo.uu.nl
hOp://cesar.nvdv.eu